BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 235 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
Thanks for purchasing my UFC 235 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week and I can’t wait to chase those big prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my first seat into it last week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, lets break down these UFC 235 fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Polyana Viana $9,200 vs Hannah Cifers $7,000
Polyana Viana
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 115
Reach: 67”
Gym: Tata Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 42
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -265
Polyana Viana has been all over the news recently. She beat up a mugger, and really smashed his face. She will try to parlay that newfound fame with a UFC win here. She will be taking on Hannah Cifers who is currently 0-1 in the UFC. Cifers had a spirited performance but was ultimately finished by Maycee Barber. Viana is a dangerous submission artist, but her striking is not great. Viana will throw a lot leg & body kicks. She will throw the occasional one-two & throws solid left hooks. She will throw an overhand right lead. She is aggressive & will close the distance with straight punch combinations. She will throw hooks in the pocket. She will throw front kicks to the body & head. She doesn’t move her head & is very hittable. She was continuously hit trying to close the distance with jabs & straight punches against Aldrich. She has a good chin & is willing to eat the shots. Viana has 4 KO/TKOs, but I believe they were on the ground. She isn’t a big threat to get a standing knockout. She does wing shots full power & doesn’t fear being taken down. She has never been finished in her career.
Viana is very good on the ground & will quickly jump on submissions. She is very tricky with her Jiu-Jitsu and is a Mundials World Champion. She is dangerous whenever she gets a hold of you, she will go for standing guillotines or take the back from standing position in the clinch. She will also attempt flying armbars, triangles, and doesn’t mind being on her back. She is very slick with her armbar set ups and she gets her legs up extremely fast. She had a nice duck under takedown against JJ Aldrich in her last fight & quickly tried to jump on the back. Aldrich was able to shuck her off & got top position. She was able to pass Viana’s guard and control her on the ground for a bit. She pulled guard in round 3 vs Aldrich & wasn’t able to do much off her back. She didn’t even attempt a submission & Aldrich stayed on top for almost 2 minutes. She has finished all 10 of her pro fights. She has 6 career submissions & never been submitted. She definitely slowed down in round 3 in her fight with JJ Aldrich. Viana needs to get this fight to the mat. She will be out gunned in the stand up, and if she gasses in round 3 again, Cifers hits harder than Aldrich. If Viana can get this fight to the ground, she should attack quickly with submissions, as Cifers has been submitted before. On the feet she needs to try to stay long, throw a lot of kicks & straight punches, keep Cifers on the outside, and pick her off.
Hannah Cifers
Age: 26
Height: 5’2
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Embrace Martial Arts
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +225
Hannah Cifers is a small 115er, but sneaky strong with power in her shots. She was raised on a farm & has that farm strength. She said she has started a new strength & conditioning program, so she should be even stronger and in better shape here. Cifers has nice leg kicks & throws hard hooks to the body & head. She has nice round kicks to the body. She has a nasty right hook, straight left combination, and hits hard. In close range she will wing powerful hooks in combination. She tries to go forward & push opponents backwards. She is a small fighter with 5” reach disadvantage here, and at times she can get stuck on the outside. She likes to wait for her opponents to close the distance & then she will let go. When she does feel an opponent wilting she will turn on the pressure & go for the finish. She has 5 career KO/TKOs. She was finished with pretty brutal elbows on the ground in her UFC debut against Maycee Barber.
Cifers is deceivingly strong, and despite her size usually bullies opponents in a lot of grappling scenarios. She has good dirty boxing. She will get the Muay Thai plum and throw hard uppercuts & hooks to the body. Against the cage when she gets double under hooks, she is very strong & will land hard punches and knees to the body. She definitely will have a strength advantage in this fight, but it will be interesting if she just wants to avoid the clinch all together. The problem with that is due to her short reach, she relies on fighters coming to her, and due to that can be clinched up. She was hit with some huge elbows in the clinch & busted up in her last fight. When she was taken down, she showed some skill attacking with an omaplata & leg lock. She was eventually finished with elbows on the ground, but showed great heart, and never gave up. She isn’t a submission threat and has been submitted 1 time by Gillian Robertson. Cifers needs to keep this fight on the feet, and strike. When Viana tries to get inside she needs to tag her with big hooks. She also needs to make her pay for getting in the clinch & throw big shots and disengage. She definitely hits harder than Viana, and if this fight stays on the feet three rounds, she will likely win.
This is a striker vs grappler fight. Viana is a -280 favorite but she will need this fight to hit the mat to get a win. I do think the most likely outcome for this fight is Viana wins via submission, but if she can’t get takedowns then I think Cifers beats her on the feet and can steal a decision win that way. She is very strong, so I don’t think takedowns will come easy, but Viana’s edge on the mat is much larger than Cifers edge on the feet.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is actually Cifers. She is the lowest priced underdog I am interested in and I think she is a good pivot away from Diego who should be somewhat popular. I do like playing the 1st fight on the card so I will have exposure to both sides, but I will likely be with the field on Viana and I’ll be overweight on Cifers. If Viana can’t get the fight to the ground, then Cifers can win this fight on the feet and at $7k I could see almost any win putting her on the 1st place lineup. I would avoid this fight in cash, but I do think both sides are playable if you are MMEing. If I was just making 1-3 lineups, then I would just fade the fight altogether.
Winner – Polyana Viana via 2nd round Submission
Macy Chiasson $9,400 vs Gina Mazany $6,800
Macy Chiasson
Age: 27
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 4 (FW)
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -500
Macy Chiasson is making her first ever drop down to 135 lbs after winning TUF at FW. She has 5 professional fights including TUF all at 145 and fought almost exclusively at 155 as an amateur. She will be a very big BW. She will be facing Gina Mazany who will be looking to bounce back after a loss to Lina Lansberg her last time out. Chiasson is coming in with a lot of momentum after winning TUF and will be very big if she can make weight. Chiasson is very long & has good hand speed. She throws nice one-twos and has pop on her shots. She will throw a double jab, overhand right. She has hard body kicks & nice head kicks. He will throw long, lead left hooks. She will throw spinning heel kicks. She is still green but is athletic & powerful with a lot of potential. She dropped Pannie Kianzad with a lead elbow & left right hook combination. She will throw front kicks to the body. She is a bit of a plodder & does take shots coming forward. She doesn’t move her head & is rather easy to hit with shots. She is more comfortable fighting in the clinch & on the ground. With her making the drop down to 135 lbs it will be interesting to see if she still has the speed to get inside and take shots. She has good power & two KO/TKOs in her pro career. She has never been finished by strikes as a pro but was finished once as an amateur.
Chiasson is a strong grappler, and very dangerous in the clinch. She has nasty knees to the body & head from the Thai plum. She has big power in those shots & finished Leah Letson on the show with knees to the body. She has nice elbows to the head. Her height & reach give her very good control in that position, and she’s able to dominate her opponents. She will duck under & look for double legs. On top she likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. She is able to take the back off sprawls when she defends takedown attempts. When she takes the back, she is very long, has great control and can slip the arm under the chin quickly. She finished Pannie Kianzad with a rear naked choke in her last match to win TUF. She has good takedown defense, and good get ups. She will get butterfly hooks & does a good job of transitioning into double legs as he gets up. She has finished 3 consecutive fights & 4 of 5 overall. She has 2 submissions & never been finished by submission.
Gina Mazany
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Nevada
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +400
Gina Mazany is a grinder. I feel she could be the cleaner striker from the outside. She has a nice straight right hand & good left hook. She likes to throw right hook, left straight combinations. She will throw occasional leg & body kicks. Mazany also is uncomfortable striking at distance. She doesn’t bull forward like Chiasson and uses more feints. She will throw superman punches into the clinch. She doesn’t have the power, or athleticism of Chiasson, and isn’t nearly as dangerous. I feel on the feet Mazany may be able to land some shots, but I don’t see her stopping the forward pressure of Chiasson. Mazany has 2 career KO/TKOs. She has never been finished by strikes.
Mazany likes to fight in close range, specifically the clinch. She will get the single collar position & with throw nice elbows, and punches to the head & body. She will control opponents against the cage and throw short knees to the body & legs. She has decent double leg entries against the cage & good body locks. I see her trying to get in top position rather than hang around a long time in the clinch in this match. She fought another clinch fighter in her last match and was controlled for long periods of time against the cage. She was able to get a couple takedowns of her own. She really doesn’t have incredible top control in top position, and I’m not sure if she’s able to hold Chiasson down. Mazany tends to gas out as the fight goes on. She isn’t a big submission threat, with just one career submission & was submitted very quickly by Sarah McMann. I think Mazany should try to strike from the outside a bit, catch Chiasson coming in with shots & then get her on her back. I don’t think it’s wise for her to hang around in the clinch this fight. If Mazany is able to use her strikes to get takedowns, she has a chance to win this fight.
Chiasson is a big favorite here at -450 and I think that is about right. She should be the better fighter everywhere here, but I don’t see much value in betting that line. I do think she can win via submission or TKO, so if you want a better line on this fight then I think Chiasson ITD at -165 would be the better play for the value. I don’t think Mazany is UFC level and Macy should roll here on the feet, and if the fight hits the ground then she could finish it there as well. The only worry is that she is very inexperienced with only 3 pro fights, so maybe she makes a mistake that Mazany can capitalize on, but I would be pretty surprised to see an upset here.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Chiasson and I think she is a solid GPP pivot away from Jon Jones. I expect Jon Jones to be 50% or so owned and Chiasson should be half that or less. Her ITD line is -149 and I expect her to be the better fighter anywhere this fight goes. If she can get a knockdown or a few takedowns, and a 1st round finish, she could kick Bones off the winning lineup and she could be the reason somebody wins $50k. I will have a decent amount of lineups with her and I will try to be overweight to the field, if I can. I don’t really have any interest in Mazany though. I will need over 50 lineups before I think about using her. I don’t see her getting a win and if she did pull off a decision upset I don’t think it would be high scoring at all. There are other plays in that range I would rather move to. In cash games I think its Chiasson or pass. I would rather have Bones for cash games, so I would say this is more a GPP only fight.
Winner – Macy Chiasson via 1st round Submission
Edmen Shahbazyan $8,200 vs Charles Byrd $8,000
Edmen Shahbazyan
Age: 21
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Glendale Fighting Club
From: California
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 54
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -130
This matchmaking is a bit odd. Both fighters are coming off a fight with Darren Stewart, but with different results. Charles Byrd was knocked out by Darren Stewart, while Edmen Shahbazyan defeated Stewart via decision. It’s odd they would give Shahbazyan, Byrd, who just lost to Stewart since he just defeated him, but it’s an interesting fight nonetheless. Edmen Shahbazyan is a great prospect. He is only 21 years old and will be on the fringe of the top 15 already with a win here. He is one of these new breed fighters, who have been training MMA their entire lives. There is footage of him training at Glendale fighting systems at 10 years old. He has only been a pro since February 2017 and is already 8-0 with 7 finishes. Shahbazyan has very good hand speed, and crisp boxing. He has a great jab, and heavy hooks & uppercuts. He has a good double jab, left hook. He has nice body kicks & will throw head kicks as well. He is very aggressive & will try to overwhelm opponents early. He did get very tired in his last fight and was teed off on against the cage a bit. He showed a great chin, absorbing the same elbow that ended Byrd’s night. He showed composure, eventually getting a hold of Stewart and slowing down the pace. It was his 8th ever fight, and first fight out of the first round. I feel that is invaluable experience, and he will only improve. He has 7 career KO TKOs in 8 wins.
Shahbazyan is a strong grappler. He has fantastic entries on his double legs & good takedowns. He is very strong & good at driving through & finishing. He is excellent at setting his shots up with strikes. Darren Stewart was able to stand up from under him, but he did an excellent job of hanging on him, attacking the back take and just tiring him out. When he does take the back, he is heavy & has good control. He got taken down by Darren Stewart when he was exhausted & got bombed on with some huge ground & pound. He rolled for a leg lock to create a scramble and stayed moving, never giving up. He showed tenacity, and the will to win, getting late takedowns with pure heart when exhausted & hurt in round 3. Shahbazyan needs to address his cardio, but I feel going 3 hard rounds will give him confidence if this fight is to go the distance. I think Shahbazyan should use his wrestling here. He needs to use his punches to get inside & put Byrd on his back. He is going to have a size advantage, and more heart in my opinion. Byrd has shown over his career, that if he doesn’t get an early finish he can fold.
Charles Byrd
Age: 35
Height: 5’10
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 109
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +110
Charles Byrd is a good fighter & well rounded. He has a nice jab & clean one-twos. He has a nice overhand right. He will throw a left straight, overhand right combination. He has a nice lead left hook. He has huge legs & is very explosive. He has hard low leg kicks. He will also throw nice body & head kicks. He is fast as well as pretty technical. He has 3 KO/TKOs in his career. He has shown good durability over his career, but he was finished for the first time in his career in his last match.
Byrd is a very strong grappler. He has very good timing on his single leg entries. He will dump an opponent if he has an angle or drive him to the cage and take him down from there. He has strong body lock takedowns as well. He is good in the clinch. He has good elbows over the top, and knees to the legs & body. He will disengage & attack with hook & uppercut combinations. He was hit with some big elbows in the clinch & finished by Darren Stewart in his last fight. On top he is super heavy, with awesome chokes. He will attack with a guillotine to get right into mount & he has a great arm triangle. He will take the mount, force opponents to give him the back & lock in RNCs. He has an incredible squeeze, and if he gets around your neck the fight is most likely over. He was beating Stewart fairly easily before he got caught. He is 35 years old & this is a much bigger fight for him than Shahbazyan in terms of career trajectory. Byrd has 5 submissions, 3 of them being his last 3 wins. He has been submitted twice in his career. He seems to have solid cardio. I think Charles Byrd should look to keep this fight standing & stay technical, land his straight punches & overhands, and keep Shahbazyan on the outside early. Later on in the rounds I think if Shahbazyan tires, Byrd could possibly take him down & exploit him on the ground.
I expect this to be a fun fight and I really have no idea who is going to win. Both guys have big power on the feet and they have both shown they can get takedowns as well. I think whoever is able to land takedowns in this fight will probably be the winner if it goes all 15-minutes, but this is just too hard to call. I think it is very close on the feet as well, but I am going to have to side with the undefeated Shahbazyan. We saw him beat Darren Stewart last year and Byrd was knocked out by Stewart earlier the same year. I know MMA math doesn’t work, but that is what I am going to use for my pick in this one because I think it is a 50/50 fight.
On DraftKings, I do think this will be an important fight and I could see the winner being on the $50k lineup. Since I don’t feel good about either side, I would probably still fade this fight if I was going with a single lineup, but since I am MMEing I will be heavy on both sides of this fight and I will go close to 50/50 with a slight edge to Shahbazyan. This is a total pass in cash games for me though because I can’t trust either guy, but I think the winner does score highly and that makes it one of the better GPP fights, especially with it being our mid-ranged price fight for the week.
Winner – Edmen Shahbazyan via 2nd round (T)KO
Mickey Gall $9,100 vs Diego Sanchez $7,100
Mickey Gall
Age: 27
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: MusclePharm
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 185
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -240
Mickey Gall called his shot again. He asked for Diego Sanchez, and he got him. Gall is coming off an impressive first round finish of George Sullivan. Diego Sanchez is coming off a victory over Craig White. Sanchez’s damage meter is still very high, but he seems to take shots better at 170. Mickey Gall is still very much developing as a striker, so it’s not a terrible matchup for him. Gall has really shown barely any stand up in the UFC. He has shown some power in his right hand dropping Mike Jackson with a right hook & dropping Sage Northcutt with an overhand right. He will try to throw his jab out there, but it lacks the snap, & opponents can easily counter him off it. He will throw the occasional body & head kick. He looked a bit more fluid with his movement in his last fight, but he only threw one high kick, before getting a takedown, and finishing the fight. He hasn’t gauged distance very well in previous fights & will get tagged with shots. He also doesn’t know how to strike moving backwards & opponents can land longer combinations against him. He seems to get uncomfortable when he gets backed to the fence and will turn his back & run away. He does have a good chin, and attitude. He doesn’t mind getting hit & will brush it off when he eats big shots. He is very confident and has a bravado in the cage. He doesn’t have any KO/TKOs & has never been finished.
Mickey Gall is a good Jiu-Jitsu player, and pretty dangerous on the mat. He got a quick double leg against CM Punk, took the back and got the rear naked choke. To people who say oh that’s CM Punk, he finished a UFC veteran faster in similar fashion. He landed a nice single leg against Sullivan. Gall will try to shoot a single into a leg lock & sweep to top position. He can end up on his back this way and will attack in his guard but was battered with elbows vs Randy Brown. He will attack with guillotines, triangles & armbars. He will also roll for leg locks. He has decent sweeps with the leg locks & along with half guard sweeps. He was way too comfortable in guard against Randy Brown, and never really attempted to stand up. His takedown defense is bad & I do feel Sanchez can take him down. In his 4 submission victories they are all rear naked chokes. It will be interesting to see if Gall can take down an accomplished wrestler like Sanchez.
Diego Sanchez
Age: 37
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 17-11
Fight Matrix: 50
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +200
Diego Sanchez had a career saving victory in his last match. He had two brutal knock out losses & a lot of people were calling for him to retire, but he was able to grind out a victory over Craig White. He had a significant step down in competition, and this is a step up, but still a lesser fighter than Sanchez is used to fighting. Sanchez usually does well against grapplers, and this is a good matchup for him. His striking has never been super impressive, but he is relentless. He will throw hard overhand rights & right hooks. He will throw left straight, overhand right, or right uppercut combinations. He will throw a wild, lead left hook & can really overextend with it. He will throw hard leg & body kicks. He is still very aggressive & takes the center immediately. When he gets hurt, he still has that dog in him & will bite down and try to get it back. His chin is gone & when he does that fighters put him out cold. I feel he is more technical than Gall, but Gall can knock him out. If I were Diego, I would have the same game plan as his last match, use his strikes solely to get inside & get takedowns. Sanchez has never been known as a power guy with 8 finishes by KO/TKO in his career & none since 2008. He is one of the most durable fighters in UFC history, but the wars have caught up to him. He has been KO/TKOd in his last three losses, and 4 times overall. The last two times he was finished were especially brutal & his ability to take a shot is gone. He was barely hit at all vs Craig White, but the times he was he was hurt.
Sanchez is a grinding, relentless wrestler, and returned to that style in his last match. The Nightmare was able to takedown White at will, control and beat him up on the ground. He will run across the cage & attack for the takedown right away. He has a good single leg entry & is very strong. He can pick up and dump his opponents. He has good double leg entries as well. He likes to get the takedowns against the fence. On top he has great control & strong ground and pound. He is super active & relentless with his volume. He has phenomenal cardio and will put a storm on opponents and make them give up. His last two wins have come against submission grapplers, where he just grinded them out. Sanchez has never been submitted in his illustrious career. He has 9 career submissions, but 0 in the UFC. Sanchez has amazing heart & willing to die in there. I think Sanchez should try to just maul Mickey Gall here. He should close the distance, take him down & beat him up. I do think he can take Gall down & as long as he doesn’t get caught, it’s a clear path to victory.
Gall has had a pretty easy road so far including his gimmie fight against CM Punk. Now is the first time he is facing a legit veteran with a ton of high-level experience. This is not the Diego Sanchez of old, but I think he still has what it takes to beat Gall. On the feet, the volume alone from Sanchez should win it for him there as long as he doesn’t get KO’d. I also don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and I think Sanchez would be the more likely guy to be on top if the fight hits the ground. A submission is Gall’s best chance at a win here and Sanchez has never been submitted. I don’t think the -275 on Gall is worth laying and I would say this is a dog or pass fight. I am going to take Sanchez to get the job done by a split or unanimous decision.
On DraftKings, Diego is one of my favorite underdog plays and the cheapest I would feel comfortable going. I do think he wins this fight and at $7.1k it doesn’t really matter how much he scores. If he can get a win I think he has a good shot at being on the winning lineup. I do think he is a solid cash game play too even though he has a low floor. He is so cheap that he helps us get up to Jon Jones and that puts him in play in all formats. I do think he will be popular in GPPs though so fading him for other fighters in that same range could help you be contrarian. But it is hard to pass up on a $7.1k fighter that I think wins. Gall is a GPP only play for me, but I think he will be a contrarian play and I think he is worth investing in for that reason. If Diego wasn’t going to be chalky then I would rather just fade Gall, but if we can kill off ~30% of lineups with a 1st round Gall win then that could help win a GPP.
Winner – Diego Sanchez via Unanimous Decision
Cody Stamann $8,600 vs Alejandro Perez $7,600
Cody Stamann
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 64”
Gym: Michigan Top Team
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -200
Cody Stamann vs Alejandro Perez is a great matchup. It’s a bit of a striker vs. grappler matchup, and pits two young upstarts against each other. Alejandro Pérez is unbeaten in his last 7 UFC fights & won 4 in a row. Cody Stamann is coming off his first loss in a long time. He had a 10-fight winning streak snapped by Aljamain Sterling, in pretty brutal fashion. He was caught in a nasty knee bar & Sterling said he felt Stamann’s knee pop. I have not been able to find any information as to what actually happened to the knee, or if it forced him to have surgery or miss training. He is fighting 6 months after the fight, so I am going to assume it was nothing major. Stamann is not a bad striker, but definitely will want to get this fight to the ground. Stamann has a decent jab & a strong, straight right hand. He has a good, long, lead left hook. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs & front kicks to the body. He has good front & sidekicks to the body. He will throw an inside leg kick, body jab, straight right hand combination. He will throw a left hook to the body to a left hook to the head combination. He has good high kicks. He will throw straight right hands to high kicks or jabs to high kicks. He does a good job investing to the body with punches which helps disguise his level changes. He does a good job of grabbing the Thai plum & landing knees to the head. He does a good job of slipping & returning with shots in the pocket & slipping & ducking under for takedowns. He is super explosive & sets his takedowns up well with his striking. He can hold his hands low & be hit with jabs and straight punches. He isn’t a big power striker but has 6 career KO/TKOs. He has a good chin & isn’t afraid of being hit. He has never been finished via strikes.
Cody Stamann is an awesome wrestler. He is very explosive & sets his shots up with his strikes very well. He will throw a double jab into a double leg takedown. He does a great job of staying in the pocket, landing a couple shots, then slipping and ducking under to get a double leg. He is good on top and likes to get into side control, posture up & land takedowns. He does a good job of staying connected when opponents try to stand up & immediately returning them to the mat. He likes to get into 3 quarters mount & land hard hammer fists & punches. He is smart with his positioning and doesn’t go into places where he can get bucked off very much. He will try to take the back & flatten opponents out. He isn’t a big submission threat with just two in his career. He has been submitted one time in his last fight. He has great cardio & doesn’t slow down like Perez’s last opponent, Matthew Lopez. Cody Stamann is going to need to get this fight to the ground & make it a grimy, dirty fight. He needs to throw with power to get inside & set his takedowns up with strikes. Perez is very hard to hold down, so I assume Stamann will have to land multiple takedowns to earn the win. I feel if Stamann can get a couple takedowns he will become more successful with his striking.
Alejandro Pérez
Age: 29
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: AKA
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 7-1-1
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +170
Alejandro Pérez has very good striking. He is light on his feet and very quick & tight with his boxing. Perez has nasty, low leg kicks & a very sharp jab. He will jab to the head. He will throw hard hooks in the pocket. He will throw nice one-twos down the pipe & a very good, straight right hand. He has a nice overhand right. Perez has a nasty step in knee. He has a nice lead left hook & strong body kicks. Perez hits hard & has super-fast hand speed. He is more of a counter striker & likes to wait for opponents close the distance & counter. He lulls opponents to sleep & forces them to fight at his pace because he spoils them when they close the distance. He can get hit clean with shots if fighters are willing to trade with him or throw sharp shots because he can throw a lot of wide hooks. He has big power & has 10 career KO/TKOs. He has only been finished 1 time by KO/TKO in his career, but he has been dropped quite a few times & has a questionable chin.
Perez is a well-rounded fighter & will go for takedowns himself from time to time. I find it highly unlikely he will he will try to take Stamann down, but he has good reactive double legs. He trains at AKA, a great wrestling gym, and has really improved his takedown defense. He has a very fast sprawl & heavy hips. He does a good job of landing knees to the body and disengaging from the clinch. He will shuck fighters away with double unders. He can be taken down when opponents can chain takedowns together at times, but he has great get ups. He does a good job of using the cage to stand up and is very good at creating a scramble & exploding back to his feet. He does a good job of circling to the back when opponents try to take him down against the cage. He does tend to give his back & Matthew Lopez was able to get it more than once in the first round and threaten with a rear naked choke. Perez does a good job of staying calm, defending the choke & eventually turning into his opponent’s guard. He has good cardio & can go all three rounds easily. This is a step up for Perez & with a win here it would prove he is a serious contender in the division. Perez has 5 submissions in his career & has been submitted 3 times himself. For Perez, he is going to need to use the same game plan he always does, and when he gets taken down get up quickly. He needs to throw his low leg kicks & jab, straight right hands. He needs to use lateral movement, stay away from the cage, use his reach and keep Stamann on the outside. When Stamann gets inside he needs to make him pay with big combinations. If he can do that, it could make Stamann hesitant to close the distance. Perez needs to avoid being on his back as much as possible and try to stand up quickly when taken down. The more this fight is contested on the feet the better for Perez.
I think this will be a fun fight, but I see Stamann being better everywhere. I think he has the better striking and he is much more accurate with his 49% striking accuracy compared to the 35% of Perez. He also lands at a higher pace averaging 4.97 significant strikes per minute compared to 3.71 from Perez. If this fight stays standing I think Stamann should be the winner based on those stats. However, I think it’s the wrestling from Stamann that gets the job done. He lands 4.19 takedowns per 15-minutes and he should be able to get Perez down any time he wants to here if he wants the easier path to victory. I think he wins a clean 30-27 decision by being the better fighter and bullying Perez over the course of 15-minutes.
Stamann is one of my top plays of the week on DraftKings and he doesn’t need a finish to score highly. I think he is one of the few guys with 100+ point potential in a decision win. If he is smart, he will use his wrestling in this fight and if he does that at the pace he sets, then I think he gets 10x+ in a win easily. I like his price a lot this week and he is probably a lock for my cash games. I will be overweight to him in GPPs as well, but I do expect him to be one of the most popular plays of the week. I don’t really care much for Perez and I would full fade him with 20 or less lineups. I think a KO would be his best chance at winning here and I don’t think he has that kind of power behind his punches. I see Cody putting him on his back and I don’t see him even being a decent cash punt with the 3-rounds he should last for.
Winner – Cody Stamann via Unanimous Decision
Johnny Walker $8,400 vs Misha Cirkunov $7,800
Johnny Walker
Age: 26
Height: 6’5
Weight: 205
Reach: 83”
Gym: Paraná Vale Tudo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 35
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -150
This is a wild fight. Originally Misha Cirkunov was set to face OSP, but Johnny Walker is stepping in on short notice. It is a similar matchup, but Walker is even bigger & more athletic on the feet. Walker has had two UFC fights, both lasting under two minutes, really captivating fans. He is an incredibly charismatic, dynamic knock out artist. Misha Cirkunov looked phenomenal in his last outing finishing Patrick Cummings. He has moved to the states training at Xtreme Coutures, and it really showed in his performance. Johnny Walker is a super dynamic striker. He is extremely athletic, and clearly improving rapidly. His movement & distance control is night and day from what it was a couple years ago. He has a very long karate stance & is light on his feet. He has an 82” reach and utilizes it very well. He will throw a lot of fakes & feints and is always giving his opponents different looks. He has very good head movement & is ready to counter immediately. He has a very nice straight & overhand right. He will throw a lot of oblique kicks to the knees & front kicks to the body. He will throw nice head kicks & follow with a quick straight left hand, right hook. His head kicks are very fast & he is unusually athletic for someone his size. He is a very creative striker. He will throw axe kicks to the head, jump knees into superman punches or spinning back fists, and when he finds his range will throw in combination. He can throw kicks without setting them up at times & be countered hard with straight punches. He can stand a bit tall at times & opponents can get inside on him but was much improved with that against Rountree. He finished his last fight in 15 seconds with a hook kick to a spinning backfist combination which floored Justin Ledet. We didn’t learn anything we didn’t know from this fight, but it was once again reaffirmed, this dude is dangerous. He has big power & is very explosive with 13 KO/TKOs in his career. He has been finished twice by strikes.
Walker is actually not a bad grappler. He is extremely dangerous in the clinch. His frame allows him to get the Muay Thai plum much easier. He will throw nasty knees & elbows from the clinch. He will throw a combination & then grab the Muay Thai plum & throw a jump knee. He will try to get the single collar position, trap the wrist quickly and come over the top with elbows. He has good takedown defense. He will use a heavy sprawl, and circle to the back. He will try to hit a switch when opponents take him down as well. He will attack with front chokes to defend takedowns also and will use the choke to move directly into mount. He will throw hard elbows to the head when opponents get in on him against the cage. When he does get taken down he has very dexterous legs & can use them to sweep extremely well. On top, Walker is good. He distributes his weight well and can float to keep top position. He will slowly work to mount & the back. He doesn’t seem to have great submission technique, but he will attack with the chokes. When he hurts fighters, he will rain down brutal ground & pound. He does tire as the fight gets to the third round & I do feel that if Cirkunov can extend him & get him down late he may finish. Walker will never give up in positions on the ground & has incredible heart. He was dropped & hurt badly multiple times vs Wagner Prado, and on the ground was still moving and trying to survive. He got dropped immediately, went in on a single leg, and was using head movement, while he was in on the leg which was an interesting survival technique. Walker isn’t a big submission threat with two in his career & has been submitted one time by Jiu-Jitsu ace, Klidson Farias. Walker is extremely confident right now, and in his element in the cage. I think Michael Bisping said it best, in his fight with Justin Ledet it looked like he was going on a “Sunday stroll”. He is so calm & loves to fight. Walker is going to want to keep this fight on the feet. Walker should throw a lot of front kicks to the body, straight punches, move in & out and get Misha desperate to close the distance. If he does close the distance, try to get in the Thai clinch land shots & get back to range. Walker needs to go forward in this fight. Going backwards is what Cirkunov wants. Cirkunov hasn’t shown the greatest ability to take shots & I don’t like the way he reacts. If Walker can land clean, or rock him Cirkunov could find a way out.
Misha Cirkunov
Age: 32
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 77”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Canada
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 26
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +130
Misha Cirkunov is once again at Xtreme Couture’s for this camp & will be looking to build on his first-round submission of Patrick Cummings. It is relevant that Cirkunov has been going through a pretty traumatic situation in his personal life. His wife was diagnosed with cancer, best wishes go out to her on her recovery. It has to be noted, because you have to imagine that is a very hard thing to go through while getting ready for a fight and could impact his performance. Cirkunov is a big, physical fighter, with a grappling base. Cirkunov is a southpaw striker. He likes to throw out his jab & one-twos. He will throw the straight left hand as a lead well. He will throw a jab, right hook, left uppercut combination. He has good hand speed in close range. He throws a lot of early oblique & inside leg kicks, along with front kicks to the body. He has good liver kicks that a lot of south paws use effectively. He will go high with rear leg head kicks. He does a good job of faking duck under hooks & throwing right hooks. He is a bit of a plodder & he likes to fight on the inside. I think he is going to really struggle with the speed & in and out movement of Walker on the feet. I don’t see him being able to find his range or landing many shots especially early on. I feel Cirkunov on the feet will be low volume, time good straight shots & overhands off counters on the feet. I don’t think he should try to open up very much, because I think Walker could counter him & hurt him. He does have solid timing on his punches & it’s possible he could land flush. He is a bit of a plodder & he ducks his head a lot when he’s in exchanges. I feel that’s something Walker could exploit with a knee. Cirkunov has been finished by strikes twice in his career & 2 of his last 3 fights.
Cirkunov is very strong when he gets his hands on opponents and is a great grappler. He likes to get his takedowns in the clinch or against the cage. That is something that is a bit of a problem in this fight, because he is going to have to go in the danger zone of Walker. When he gets into the clinch he will dig double unders, & dump opponents or push them to the cage. He has good control against the cage with knees to the legs & body. He also does a decent job of throwing punching combinations off the break. He has good double & single leg takedowns against the cage & is very good on top. He works quickly and is immediately looking for submissions. He will try to turk the legs & move directly into full mount. He has a good arm triangle. He can get over aggressive on top & fighters can scramble back to their feet. Nikita Krylov was able to stand up from bottom on him a few times. Cirkunov can be taken down himself, but he has good sweeps & will attack with guillotines. He was able to drop Nikita Krylov & jump on a guillotine. He is coming off a quick arm triangle submission and has 8 career submissions. Cirkunov has 4 finishes in the UFC & there has been a finish in all 7 of his UFC fights. Cirkunov should try to be low output, not put himself in danger, walk down Walker, and throw well timed punches. If he can get in close he needs to duck under & get into the clinch immediately and try to get Walker to the mat. The more Cirkunov is connected to Walker and hanging on him the better for him.
This is my free 1u bet of the week. I like Johnny Walker in this fight at -130 odds and I think he gets it done by knockout. If you want better odds, then I would look later in the week for the TKO prop, or the round 1 prop, because that is how I see this fight ending. We have seen Cirkunov have a questionable chin and Walker has serious power. If he can land one clean time on Cirkunov’s chin, I think this fight is over. If this fight goes to the ground we could be in some trouble, but it is hard to pick against Walker in this spot and the line has climbed down far enough for me to risk the 1.3u to win 1u.
I think this will be a very important fight on DraftKings. The line for Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is currently -735 and I would be pretty shocked to see it go all 3 rounds. My preferred play is Walker because I think he gets an early KO and is probably good for 100+ points. However, this is a great all-in fight. If you are making 10 GPP lineups, then you should probably have this in 9 or 10 of them. I think Cirkunov is a great play as well because if he can get takedowns I think he could win with GNP or a choke. He will also be much lower owned than Walker. I will be heavily invested to this fight in GPPs, but it is a pass in cash for me. Both guys have low floors and it is hard to trust either guy if the majority of your money is in cash games. I would rather go with safer floor or take a stars/scrubs approach for my cash games.
Winner – Johnny Walker via 1st round (T)KO
Zabit Magomedsharipov $8,900 vs Jeremy Stephens $7,300
Zabit Magomedsharipov
Age: 27
Height: 6’1
Weight: 145
Reach: 73”
Gym: Ricardo Almeida BJJ
From: Russia
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 30
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -245
This is an epic fight. Zabit Magomedsharipov is one of the most highly touted prospects in UFC history and hasn’t disappointed with a 4-0 start. He will be getting a big step up in competition here as he takes on Jeremy Stephens, a long time UFC veteran. Zabit Magomedsharipov has been a marvel so far in the cage. A super dynamic, fun striker to watch, to go along with elite grappling skills. He is 6’1 with a 3” reach advantage in this fight & he is good at fighting long. Magomedsharipov has fantastic kicks, and many different ones in his arsenal. Zabit is also a very skilled puncher. He has a nasty jab & very good overhand right, left hook combination. He will throw nice one-twos down the pipe. He has phenomenal distance control & always is ready to slip & rip. He will front an overhand right, with a shoulder movement and spring right into beautiful spinning back kicks to the body. He will do the same to set up his spinning backfists in closer range. He is excellent at catching kicks, he will literally see your kick coming and switch stances to give himself a better chance of catching it. Zabit will throw spinning back kicks to the head, sanchai kicks, kicks off the cage & is incredibly creative and dynamic. He tends to make fighters hesitant to throw because of his reach and countering ability. Zabit is going to be fighting long in this match, utilizing a lot of fakes, feints long range kicks & frustrating Stephens. He is a cerebral fighter and won’t get drawn into a brawl. Magomedsharipov has never been finished by strikes in his career & rarely gets hit. He definitely possesses knock out power both in his hands & feet and has 7 career KO/TKOs.
Zabit is an incredible grappler. I actually think his wrestling is better than his striking. His length gives him an incredible advantage in the clinch. He has amazing clinch takedowns and control once he gets ahold of you. He looks frail, but he is strong in grappling situations. He will use nice body locks to get trip takedowns. He is also very good at jumping on the back from standing position. He will grab a leg immediately with an overhook after getting his hooks in very similar to Khabib, which completely neutralizes his opponents posture. When he gets a suplex from the back he will hook his opponents leg as he gets it & move immediately into side control. He has tremendous guard passing. He is excellent at grapevining the legs in full guard and moving directly into side control. He has a nasty crucifix from there. When fighters try to scramble back to their feet he is excellent at catching front chokes. He will attack with anacondas & d’arces and in my opinion Magomedsharipov has one of the best ground games in the UFC. His technicality, and just attention to detail is top notch. One of the only weaknesses we’ve seen from him is he can get too complacent in opponent’s guards. His two losses including his one amateur loss are both via arm bar. He has questionable cardio, but he did break his hand in the locker room in the match he got hurt and maybe that affected him. Zabit was able to get a nasty knee bar submission in his last match & is very diverse with his submission game as well. If he gets on top of Stephens, he could easily find a submission. He has 7 career submissions including 3 in the UFC. He was submitted in his lone loss. I see Magomedsharipov having a game plan of fighting long, frustrating Stephens and then taking him down. He should throw a lot of jabs, straight punches, front kicks, and make Stephens pay with counters. When Stephens gets inside he has to tie up with him or shoot a takedown & can’t let Stephens get comfortable.
Jeremy Stephens
Age: 32
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: Iowa
UFC Record: 15-14
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +205
Jeremy Stephens is a knock out artist, who is always dangerous to fight. He was having the best run of his career, before being stopped by Jose Aldo late last year. He has come out and made statements about how he contemplated suicide after the loss, which I don’t think is a great mindset. He has one of the best highlight reels you’re going to see. He has 17 KOs and is a vicious finisher in the cage. He has improved his feints and footwork over his career but is still always trying to find that heavy right hand. He will now throw hard, low leg kicks & hard jabs. He has a nasty straight & overhand right, and when he lands clean it could be lights out. He will time uppercuts on takedown attempts and slump you like he did vs RDA. He also will attack with nasty flying knees when you attack with takedowns and KO you like he did Denis Bermudez. He has started to integrate a much more dangerous kicking game. He has massive leg kicks and had a nasty head kick KO vs Rony Jason. He likes to try to cut you off and wait for you to attack and throw hard hooks and catch you coming in. He will throw nice body kicks to cut you off and keep you against the cage. He does a great job of slipping the jab & returning with a left hook to the body, right hook combination. He will also slip the jab & return with brutal uppercuts. Stephens is nasty in the pocket & will capitalize on opponent’s mistakes. He struggles when fighters fight long & don’t give him the pocket fight he wants. He has a great chin and has only been KO’d one time in his entire career. He has 19 career KO/TKOs and if he lands clean you’re going to sleep.
Stephens is not an active grappler & will rarely work for the clinch or takedown. Stephens is big for the division & a former high school wrestler. If he is losing a stand-up battle he will try to get a double leg & push and control opponents against the cage. He had limited success controlling Max Holloway against the cage & landing short knees. Stephens has great takedown defense, when he is ready for the shots to come. He has a fantastic sprawl, very good at denying the clinch & heavy hips. He can be taken down after he gets frustrated in the striking. Renato Moicano was able to frustrate him by fighting long, and then duck under and took Stephens down when he got too impatient closing the distance. He has been able to stop the shots of fighters like Darren Elkins & Denis Bermudez. Stephens, when he can get top position is deadly. He has some of the best ground & pound in the sport. When he drops fighters & hurts them he has brutal elbows. He broke multiple bones in Josh Emmett’s face in his last win with G&P. Stephens has good submission defense but is not a submission threat himself. He has been submitted 3 times, but none since 2009. He has 2 career submissions. Stephens is going to need to get inside of the kicks of Magomedsharipov & get in the pocket. Zabit doesn’t really use a lot of set ups for his boxing & lacks the basics. If Stephens can close the space & still avoid being taken down or clinched up that’s where he wants to be. We have seen Zabit tire a bit in fights & maybe not show the biggest power. Kyle Bochniak was able to start walking him down, applying heavy pressure on him in Round 3. If Stephens can do the same, the danger of Zabit being finished is exponentially higher.
I think we have a future champion in Zabit. He has looked amazing and he should have a big edge everywhere in this fight. The only edge I would give to Stephens is the power edge, and this is a KO or bust fight for Stephens for that reason. I see Zabit picking him apart on the feet and he could win a 15-minute decision that way. He could also take this fight to the ground and he will have an even bigger edge there because we aren’t worried about Stephens power off his back. I think Zabit can win this fight via KO, submission, or a unanimous decision. I expect him to show everyone he is ready for a title contender fight by dominating a legit veteran in Stephens.
At $8.9k, Zabit is one of my favorite plays on the slate. I have a hard time seeing him not pay that price off with a win and the only way I see him losing would be by knockout. I like Zabit in all formats and for me, Stephens is only a hedge GPP play. If he wins, it will be by KO, and if that happens then he will score highly. At $7.3k he will surely be on the optimal lineup with a KO, so I like him a bit for GPPs for that reason. I just think he gets smoked here by the much better fighter and I would rather fade the ownership that comes with his name. If I was making 10 or less lineups I would rather just fade Stephens and get more leverage on Zabit. I will have him in more than half my lineups and he will be in my cash lineup as well.
Winner – Zabit Magomedsharipov via 3rd round Submission
Cody Garbrandt $8,500 vs Pedro Munhoz $7,700
Cody Garbrandt
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 65.5”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 6-2
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -135
Cody Garbrandt will be looking to bounce back after back to back devastating losses to his rival TJ Dillashaw. He was TKOd in both fights, and a chin can only take so much, so that has to be monitored. He will be taking on the surging Pedro Munhoz who has put on back to back great performances. Munhoz has been a long time UFC veteran, fought the who’s who, and getting a marquee opportunity here. For years there has been 3 names that have ruled the BW division & they have only fought each other. Dominick Cruz, TJ Dillashaw, and Garbrandt have been only fighting each other for the belt since 2016. During that time an impressive crop of contenders has built up under them such as Aljamain Sterling, Marlon Moraes, Jon Lineker, Petr Yan, Cory Sandhagen, & Ricky Simon to name a few. A lot of those fighters have been pining to fight one of those three guys & Pedro Munhoz is the one who is finally getting the chance to break the logjam. A win here for Munhoz would be massive, and he will most likely only fight top 10 fighters for the rest of his career. A loss here for Garbrandt would be terrible & maybe signal the end of Cody as a world class level fighter. This is a massive fight for both fighters & great matchup.
Former UFC Champion Cody Garbrandt is in a make or break fight here. He is only 27 years old, but a loss here would put him in no man’s land in his career. I am sure he is going to come into this matchup well prepared & ready to go. He has great boxing, blazing hand speed, and huge knockout power. He will throw low leg kicks, but he is predominately a boxer. He has great distance control & does a great job of landing and getting out of range. He throws very nice one-twos, & overhand rights. He will throw a left hook, overhand right combination. His defensive footwork is excellent & he is great at fighting backwards & then exploding in with combos. He likes to throw a lead right hook to close the distance, then throw a hard overhand right. He has excellent head movement and will slip & rip with big hooks in the pocket. He will throw a straight right hook to a right hook combination. He has good front kicks to the body. He is going to be much more explosive & much faster than Munhoz. Garbrandt is going to use his defensive footwork, lateral movement and try to keep this fight in the center of the cage. He is going to be trying to evade & angle off the forward pressure & shots of Munhoz and blitz in with counters. Garbrandt hits extremely hard & in combination when he finds his range, and it will be interesting to see if Munhoz respects that. Garbrandt is very good at sliding back & avoiding leg & body kicks which Munhoz likes to use. Garbrandt is chinny & coming off back to back losses might be questioning himself. He has been finished twice by KO/TKO & they were in his last two fights. He has 9 career TKOs himself. He is a first round finisher with 7 of those coming in round one.
Garbrandt is extremely fast, twitch & explosive. He is not a very active offensive wrestler, but he did takedown Dominick Cruz with some very well-timed shots. He is a former high school wrestler & possesses those skills. He has an amazing sprawl, fast hips and is super hard to hold down. He has never been taken down in his UFC career & I don’t even see Munhoz trying to take him down. Garbrandt isn’t a submission threat with zero in his career and has never been submitted. Garbrandt is most likely going to get the fight he wants here. A very aggressive, come forward striker, who maybe doesn’t have the speed to catch him. Garbrandt is going to use his lateral movement, distance control, try to make Munhoz miss & return with blitz attacks. If Munhoz doesn’t respect the power of Garbrandt especially early, Cody may get his 10th career knockout. This is a good matchup for Garbrandt & as long as he doesn’t get clipped he should win the fight. He is much faster, has great footwork & makes fighters pay for being aggressive. He is very good at sliding away & blocking kicks and I think he will frustrate Munhoz. Munhoz gets hit but has shown an elite chin, but he’s never fought a KO artist like Cody. I think Cody will be a bit tentative and come with a game plan of needing to win. I see him winning a decisive decision & not taking a ton of risks. If Munhoz gets very crazy trying to come forward he could get KO’d.
Pedro Munhoz
Age: 32
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 65”
Gym: Black House MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 7-3-1
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +115
Pedro Munhoz is a forward pressure striker who comes to brawl with amazing Jiu-Jitsu. He is coming off a first round TKO of Bryan Caraway & has a lot of confidence. He will start off most fights throwing a lot of kicks, hard low kicks, & front/round kicks to the body. He is always coming forward walking opponents down & applying the pressure. He has a decent jab & powerful left hook. He will throw a round or front kick to the body, and a straight right-hand combination. He will throw the occasional high kick. His forward pressure drains fighters & forces them into mistakes. He will sit down & throw hook & uppercut combinations full power in the pocket. He has good lead overhand rights & will throw overhand right, left hook combinations. He tends to hurt a lot of opponents before submitting them. He is coming off back to back fights where his striking has been dominant. He beat Brett Johns pillar to post for 3 rounds & finishing Bryan Caraway in the first round via TKO. His front kick to the body hurt both opponents, and he is on fire with that strike lately. He does have deficiencies, and this is a tough matchup. Munhoz is very hittable & doesn’t move his head. He is slow for the division & a bit of a plodder. He has struggled vs quick strikers such as John Dodson, Jimmie Rivera, & Rapha Assunscao. We have seen Cody Garbrandt cut angles beautifully and style on Dominick Cruz. Munhoz needs to force Cody to exchange to be successful on the feet and make it a war. Munhoz has 3 career KO/TKOs. He’s never been finished by strikes & has an amazing chin.
Munhoz is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & a very opportunistic submission artist. He doesn’t tend to shoot a lot in fights, but he has more often recently. He will shoot good reactive single & double leg takedowns. He isn’t a great wrestler & has very few takedowns in the UFC. He has fantastic takedown defense & attacks with one of the best guillotines in the business. On top he is heavy & methodical while always looking to attack the guillotine. He is very good at hurting his opponents with a shot & jumping on the neck from standing very quickly. Even in top position against Brett Johns he was mainly just attacking with the guillotine and seems like a specialist. He has 8 career submissions & has never been submitted. His cardio pace & pressure breaks opponents, and his best rounds are usually the later rounds. Munhoz is going to need to try to get inside & test that chin of Garbrandt. Cody has to be questioning himself after two TKO losses, and this is a good time for Munhoz to capitalize. I think that if Munhoz can eat the shots of Garbrandt, there is upset potential here.
This should be a fun fight. Garbrandt is coming off two straight knockout losses to the champion, TJ Dillashaw, but before that he had one of the best performances ever when he beat Dominick Cruz to win the world championship. He was also on a roll before that, and I think he is the better fighter in this matchup. I think this is a good bounce back spot for Cody, but I am worried about his chin after those 2 KO losses. I think the best path to victory for Munhoz is by trying to get takedowns and looking for a submission, but I think Cody’s wrestling is too good and he should be the guy who controls where this fight takes place. If this fight stays standing, then I think Cody should have the edge and I expect him to win a decision with the better boxing. Either guy could get knocked out here, but I think we see a fun striking battle for 3 rounds.
Today we had a lot of line movement in Munhoz’s favor and now he has some solid value on DK with the betting line being close to even but him being $800 cheaper on DK. I think that will make him a lot more popular, but he is still my preferred play since we need to get underdogs on our teams. I think the more the line moves the more I like Cody though. I do think he is the better boxer and he should have the wrestling to keep this standing, it is just his chin I am worried about. I do think he will be low owned, so I like him in GPPs, but if he wins a 3-round striking match I don’t see him getting much more than 10x. If he can get a 1st round KO then maybe he can end up on the optimal lineup at low ownership, but aside from a few GPP shots I won’t be too heavily invested in him. I think Munhoz is a solid play in all formats though and even if he loses a 3-round striking decision then he still could score enough points in a loss to help us win our cash games. He could also knock out Cody and if that happens then he has a good shot of being on the optimal lineup at his $7.7k price tag. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably have Munhoz on 3-4 and Cody 0-1. I think you can fade this fight as well if you are just making a couple lineups.
Winner – Cody Garbrandt via Unanimous Decision
Weili Zhang $8,300 vs Tecia Torres $7,900
Weili Zhang
Age: 29
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Black Tiger Fight Club
From: China
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W18
Betting Odds: -120
The UFC is pitting a struggling veteran against a young upstart, in another potential passing of the torch matchup. Tecia Torres is one of the most accomplished straw weights of all time. She holds victories over Paige VanZant, Rose Namajunas, Felice Herrig, Angela Hill, & Michelle Waterson. She isn’t old at only 29 but has lost back to back fights for the first time in her career. She was facing two of the best fighters in the division, so there is no shame in the losses. Weili Zhang is a powerhouse out of China with an 18-1 record. She is 2-0 in the UFC & coming off a brutal finish of Jessica Aguilar in the first round. She has only fought one time in her career outside of Asia, and it wasn’t her greatest performance so that’s something that has to be monitored. Weili Zhang is jacked & incredibly strong for the division. She is a powerful striker & an elite grappler. Zhang likes to throw a lot of front & round kicks to the body. She is light on her feet, very fast in & out and hits hard. She has good inside, outside leg kicks. She will throw a jab, inside leg kick or jab, body kick. She has nasty front & sidekicks to the body. She is excellent at using her sidekick to keep opponents at bay. She has nice straight punches & likes to throw them in combination to close the distance. She has good counter straight right hands as well. She can get clipped with counter punches when she throws her kicks without setting them up. She will also lean back instead of moving her feet to avoid punches at times, which is a bad habit. She has a very good chin and can eat shots & continue to come forward. She is in perpetual forward motion, walking her opponents down. She does a good job of catching kicks & throwing punches or taking opponents down. When she hurts opponents, she will swarm in combination. She likes to throw straight punch & uppercut combinations when fighters are backed against the cage & will throw head kicks as fighters try to exit. She will also throw spinning back kicks to the head. She can get a little wild inside & throw hard hooks, and get countered. Danielle Taylor hurt her a bit with a counter right hook. She has never been finished and has a strong chin. She has 9 KO/TKOs in her career.
Zhang is an incredible grappler & very physically strong. She is mean & whenever she’s in grappling scenarios she’s trying to do damage. She will throw vicious knees to the body & can fold opponents with them. She will throw hard elbows & punches in the clinch. When she hurts opponents in the clinch, she will throw huge ground & pound for the finish. She does not let her opponents off the hook. She will throw nasty elbows, hammerfists & if she hurts opponents, she usually finishes. She will get the over under in the clinch & drive opponents to the mat. She is very good in half guard & will rain down hard elbows. Danielle Taylor did attack with a leg lock & was able to get back to her feet. Zhang loves to get to half guard & get the crucifix position. She will throw nasty elbows & hammerfists from that position. She can bloody the face of opponents with elbows & brutalized Jessica Aguilar with elbows in her last match. She has smooth passes into mount & will batter opponents from there as well. She will take the back & go for rear naked chokes. She has been taken down herself, but she is good off her back. She has a nice butterfly guard & will attack with leg locks of her own. She will attack with triangles & arm bars off her back also. Against Jessica Aguilar she got her guard high, attacking with the triangle while landing brutal elbows, ultimately transitioning to an arm bar. Zhang has 7 career submissions & has never been submitted. She has incredible cardio & will slowly take the will away from her opponents. She is going to need to set her kicks up much better in this fight & use her hands first to close the distance. She can’t chase Torres & needs to cut her off before striking. I don’t think that Torres will have the power to stop Zhang from crashing the distance, but if she does that could be a problem. I think eventually Zhang is going to want to get this fight to the ground. If she can get on top of Torres, or anyone in this division they are in trouble. I also think the later the fight goes Zhang gets more & more comfortable in fights.
Tecia Torres
Age: 29
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 61”
Gym: ATT
From: Florida
UFC Record: 6-3
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +100
Tecia Torres is a speedy little powerhouse herself. I expect her to want to use her kick boxing, try to move, and catch Zhang as she’s coming inside. Torres does good fighting backwards, and that’s what I expect her to do here. She has strong lateral movement, and very quick in & out. She has nice one-twos & strong hooks. She will throw a left hook, straight right hand. She will throw hooks moving backwards & it leaves her susceptible to overhands. She will throw hard inside leg, outside leg & body kicks. She will try to use sidekicks to stop fighters forward movement. She will explode in with big combinations at times herself, but the problem is she’s undersized and doesn’t have big power. Her last opponent Jessica Andrade was able to eat her shots, walk her down, and Torres was never willing to take a stand and trade. I expect Zhang to try a very similar game plan on the feet, and we will see if Torres has any adjustments. Torres has 0 KO/TKOs & has never been finished.
Torres is a decent grappler, and very active in the clinch. She likes to throw hard knees to the body & punches to the body & head. Torres has good takedown defense & she’s hard to corral. She is good off her back & hard to hold down. She has good butterfly hooks & is able to attack with submissions to force scrambles. She has good triangles and armbars. She was able to get up from bottom on Andrade several times & was able to get deep in on some body lock takedowns. She was never able to put Andrade on her back. I do feel there is a potential she could land a clinch takedown or two against Zhang, but she will be bullied in the clinch. She tired in the fight vs Andrade & was controlled on her back in Round 3. I actually really think that Zhang is going to try to use the same game plan, but a little more technically, and not as well. She won’t be as durable or have the takedown defense in my opinion. I do feel that Zhang is better on top & does a better job of closing the distance. Torres is going to need to use a lot of lateral movement, cut her off with straight punches, and throws to the body. She could get takedowns, but I feel her best path to victory is to completely avoid the grappling, because that’s Zhang’s world and she will have a strength & size advantage. If Torres can land clean & rock Zhang or just keep her on the outside, stab her with kicks & straight punches, she could win a decision.
I have gone back and forth on this fight and I think I am going to lean with the underdog. For now, anyways. I do think Zhang is a very solid fighter and she is much more likely to get a finish in this fight. I just think Torres is a tricky matchup for her and I don’t see her getting finished. She has fought the much better competition in her career and she has never been finished. I think she can use her speed to stay on the outside and pick her spots for striking and takedowns. I think she will frustrate Zhang here and I think she can win a close split decision. I likely will avoid betting this fight, but I think it is a dog or pass fight no matter who the underdog is. I would rather have the + money than lay juice on either of these fighters.
On DraftKings, I think this is a solid fight to fade, but I will take a couple shots on both fighters. I like Torres because I think she can win this fight and I don’t think she will be highly owned. I also think we get 3 rounds of action from this fight, so I like the floor of both fighters. I think Zhang is the better GPP play though because I think she has the higher ceiling and I think she would be the more likely fighter to get a finish. I think this is a solid cash game play for the 3-round possibility and it is the only fight $7.8k-$8.4k that has a decent floor for each side. I think the winner scores 70-80 though so it is not a must in GPPs at all.
Winner – Tecia Torres via Split Decision
Ben Askren $9,000 vs Robbie Lawler $7,200
Ben Askren
Age: 34
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W18
Betting Odds: -300
The long-anticipated debut of Ben Askren is finally upon us. After years of verbal sparring with Dana White, and a retirement, which basically ended the hopes of a UFC run, we are here. Askren has been very brash talking shit to all the big names in the division & is reinvigorated to prove he is the best in the world. He is going to be facing the former UFC champion Robbie Lawler. Lawler has lost two of three fights & coming off knee surgery, you have to question if his better days are behind him. He has a chance to quell all that noise and catapult right back into title contention with a win here. Ben Askren is 18-0 & one of the best wrestlers in MMA history. He is the former Bellator & ONE WW champion, and barely lost any rounds. He has a very low risk style & it may not be the most fan pleasing, but his wrestling gets the job done. His striking is not his strong suit, and he is not very dangerous. He will throw a jab & overhand right. He will throw occasional leg kicks. His hands are very sloppy & he solely throws them to close the distance. Once he gets opponents tired in later rounds from grappling, he can land some well-timed stinging jabs. He will throw spinning back fists to close the distance. He will throw a left hook, straight right hand. He likes to hold his hands out & open to parry & hand fight, but it makes him very hittable. He can get clipped with big overhands & straight punches. He can get hit with uppercuts & head kicks. He has a fantastic chin and has ate some big shots in previous fights. I’m not 100% sure if he’s ever gotten a standing KO/TKO, but he has 6 KO/TKOs in his career.
Ben Askren’s wrestling & top game are top notch. He is a two-time NCAA Division 1 champion. When he gets in on the legs or a body lock & gets his hands together there is no more defending the takedown. He has great double legs & can slam opponents with force. He will get nice body locks in the clinch. He will use a single leg, along with an ankle pick takedown. He does a great job of shooting in on the legs, coming up into a body lock & driving through on a takedown. He will shoot over & over if opponents defend & is relentless. In top position, Askren is amazing. He loves to get to side control & then the crucifix position. He will rain down heavy shots from there & has good control. He likes to get into the wrestling ride position, where he will control a leg, get a seatbelt grip & land punches with the free hand. He will take the back & mount once his opponents are weathered and try to finish the fight. On the back he will flatten opponents out and go for ground & pound. He will attack with arm triangles & rear naked chokes. He has 5 career submissions. He is excellent at keeping top position, wearing on opponents, and keeping fighters on their backs. He has no problem going on his back either. His nickname is Funky & he does a fantastic job of creating scrambles. He will use butterfly hooks to offset the balance of opponents & slip out the back or get an under hook & come up into body locks. He will go for leg locks. He isn’t a big submission threat & likes to use more ground & pound. He hasn’t even absorbed a punch in his last three fights & is extremely confident. He hasn’t fought in a year & a half and is taking a step up in competition. With a win here, the sky is the limit for Askren. Askren obviously only has one game plan here. He needs to get inside & put Lawler on his back. I feel if he can implement his style from the start, I feel the longer the fight goes the better for Askren.
Robbie Lawler
Age: 36
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Combat Club
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 13-6
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +250
Robbie Lawler is also coming off a long layoff. He hasn’t fought since Dec 2017. Lawler is coming off major knee surgery & a loss here would definitely signify the end of him as a championship caliber fighter. Lawler is a ruthless knock out artist with huge power. He has fought the best of the best for years and won’t be intimidated by Askren’s wrestling. Lawler has historically been extremely hard to take down. Lawler is a southpaw striker with very good movement. He will constantly be moving his body, feinting and slipping to get inside & box. He is very good once he gets inside of slipping and rolling with shots and returning with counters. He has a nice jab & will throw hard one-twos. He will throw nasty right hook, straight left-hand combinations. He will throw an overhand left less often & is good at slipping a shot and returning with a short-left hook. He has a very strong jab, right hook combination & lead right hook in general. He will throw a nice right uppercut, straight left combination. He loves to get inside, hand fight, stand right in front of opponents and just go toe to toe. He will not back off when opponents throw back hard shots like most fighters & will force opponents to trade. He will attack the body with jabs & hooks occasionally. His straight left hand is superb, and he really busts the faces of opponents up with it. Lawler isn’t a super active kicker, but he has very hard leg & body kicks. Lawler obviously gets hit because of his come forward style, and he struggles with good kickers. He can get hit with hard leg & body kicks as he slips with his feet planted, so he eats the full brunt of it. Lawler’s chin is excellent, and when that goes I feel he will be much less effective. He has only been finished by Nick Díaz & Tyron Woodley by KO/TKO in his 40-fight career. There is no secret what Lawler wants to do here, and that’s knock him out. He has 20 career knockouts in 28 wins.
Lawler has notoriously been a very hard fighter to take down. He isn’t worried whatsoever about taking the fight to the ground himself. Even when he gets hurt he prefers to stand & trade until one man drops. Lawler is very good in the clinch. He gets good head positioning & will throw hard uppercuts & hooks. Lawler is incredibly explosive & still going to be a much superior athlete to Askren. He has a dynamic sprawl, and great overall takedown defense. He is great at getting his hips away & snapping opponents down to the mat. He has heavy hips & a strong base making it very hard to take him down with doubles. Lawler makes opponents pay for takedown attempts with good timed uppercuts, hard knees and big shots to the head. He will swarm opponents after they are unsuccessful on a takedown attempt and doesn’t let them rest. Hendricks was able to take him down a couple times against the fence, but Lawler did good damage from those positions as well. He will throw nice uppercuts & punches from that position. He has a good butterfly hook and decent get ups. I don’t think he will be able to get up consistently or at all possibly if taken down by Askren. Lawler has been submitted 4 times in his career, but his submission defense is not bad. Lawler has never attempted a submission in his entire UFC/Strikeforce 31 fight career. He does have one career submission all the way back in 2005. Lawler is going to need to go forward in this fight, use a lot of body movements & feints, keep Askren guessing and make him pay for takedown attempts. He should utilize low leg kicks early and try to slow the shots of Askren. Askren has been susceptible to leg kicks before, and it could be effective in slowing him down. If Lawler can keep this fight on the feet he will win almost 100% of the time.
This is a clear striker vs grappler fight. Lawler is going to look to keep the fight standing and try to get the knockout. If he can’t do either of those, he is going to lose. Askren is one of the best wrestlers in MMA history and he will chain wrestle as long as it takes to get the fight where he wants it. He isn’t going to look to strike with Lawler and it is just a matter of time before he gets the fight to the mat and dominates on the ground. I think he get a clear win here as long as he doesn’t get knocked out.
On DraftKings, Askren is my preferred play and I like him in all formats. The only way he loses this fight is if he can’t get takedowns or he gets knocked out. He hasn’t had a fight yet where he can’t get takedowns and I think he will be able to get them here. I am not sure what his ceiling is though because he doesn’t do a lot of work on the ground and I don’t know if Lawler will be able to get up to allow Askren to rack up more takedown points. I do love the wrestling upside though, so he will be a top play of mine. I don’t care much for Lawler and he will only be a hedge lineup GPP guy for me because if he wins then it would be a lot of points from a knockout. I just think he spends most of the fight on his back and ends with a very low score.
Winner – Ben Askren via Unanimous Decision
Tyron Woodley $8,700 vs Kamaru Usman $7,500
Tyron Woodley
Age: 36
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 9-2-1
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -145
Tyron Woodley is back, and ready to take on another young contender. He dominated & submitted Darren Till in his last match as the betting underdog & has another stiff test here against Kamaru Usman. Usman is long, powerful wrestler riding a 15-fight win streak. He is 9-0 in the UFC. Tyron Woodley is a very cerebral fighter, he shows up with a plan and executes it to a tee. He is there to win, he does not care about putting on a show for the fans. He is one of the most athletic fighters in UFC history, and is up there with Yoel Romero for most explosive athlete in the sport. The distance he can cover, the speed and power of his overhand right is unbelievable. He has had numerous highlight reel KO’s with that punch and it’s one of the most devastating strikes in the history of MMA. That right hand gives him the ability to somewhat control distance, even though he’s usually the much shorter fighter. It makes his opponents hesitant to close the distance and get in range, and he always has the right hand cocked, so he can kind of freeze his opponents and not let them get their game off with it. He did this very effectively against Stephen Thompson. He has a decent jab, and a good one-two when you close the distance. He is very fast in the pocket, and catches people with the jab, straight right hand, and they back out of the pocket and don’t want to engage there anymore. He has brutal leg kicks. He will throw a front kick to the body at times. He usually does a lot of backing up and circling in fights, with his back against the cage. He doesn’t have a huge toolbox on the feet, and that’s why he doesn’t throw a lot and expose himself to many striking engagements on the feet. He has the leg kicks, the overhand, straight right and a jab, and other than that he doesn’t look to throw much else. The thing is, is that right hand is such a dangerous weapon, he can get away with it while still be extremely effective and dangerous. He is a finisher, when he hurts you he swarms. He does a great job of using footwork to cut his opponents off, and then bombing with the right hand. Woodley has a good chin & rarely gets hit. He has been KO’d just one time in his career. He has 7 KO/TKOs himself.
Woodley is a Division 1 National Champion wrestler. He has a good double leg and is very strong and explosive. He is good at grabbing the single and driving you to the cage and transitioning to the double He is strong in the clinch as well and can control his opponents against the cage. He will throw nice knees in the clinch to the legs, body & head. He doesn’t go for many takedowns himself, and I don’t see him going for a lot of takedowns here. If he does get on top, he is very heavy and has a great wrestling base with top control. He likes to get in half guard and rain down elbows, he has good ground & pound and can cut his opponents open with elbows. He landed some absolutely brutal G&P elbows on Darren Till after dropping him. He ultimately was able to finish with a d’arce and earn his BB. He has the best takedown defense in WW history. Woodley has improved his movement against the cage so much. He used to be much flatter footed, not feint & stand in one spot. Now he is conscious to give fakes, make opponents react, get the read & then circle. When he sees the opportunity, he closes with his shot and it’s usually brutal. His cardio is always questioned, and I don’t know why. He knows how to pace himself, and he has hurt Stephen Thompson in the 4th and 5th rounds of their fights, obviously still carrying his power. He is also one of these guys who has the world against me mentality and everyone is doubting him, and it drives him. Tyron Woodley is 100% training like a mad man to retain his belt and prove he is the greatest WW of all time. I see Woodley being patient like he always is but trying to control the center more in this match. I see him starting the fight aggressive, and pressuring Usman to try to draw out a bad shot. I think he will look to throw hard, low kicks & in space I see him having a major advantage. He will be much faster & I feel he can connect with straight & overhands in the center. I think Woodley will also throw a lot of uppercuts to try to negate the single leg of Usman. If Woodley can keep this fight standing he has a big advantage.
Kamaru Usman
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Blackzilians
From: Nigeria
UFC Record: 9-0
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W13
Betting Odds: +125
Kamaru Usman is 9-0 in the UFC and steadily improved. He is still a bit stiff overall as a striker, but very good with the basics. Usman does a good job of landing a long jab and is good from both stances. He tends to spend more time in southpaw, and he has a good jab, straight left hand. He likes to throw a straight left, right hook combination. He is very good at feinting single legs and coming back up with uppercuts and overhands. He is very powerful and can knock fighters out with one shot such as Sergio Moraes. He likes to use a right uppercut, left high kick combination, and he does a good job of keeping constant pressure and pushing his opponents backwards. He had good leg and body kicks. He can sometimes walk forward and look for the knockout making himself hittable, and he needs to not do that against Woodley. When he is loose and flowing he is much more dangerous with his striking game. He has a good chin, and when he gets hit will taunt his opponents. Usman does have big power but not a lot of standing knock outs.
He is college wrestling Division 2 National Champion and is an elite wrestler. He is very fast, and athletic closing the distance with double legs. He is very strong and when he gets ahold of fighters he usually gets them down. Usman likes to shoot single legs from southpaw, and that’s why his feints are so effective. He does a great job of getting a high crotch and taking opponents down, and then he also can change it into a double leg. He is excellent at using his striking to continuously push opponents back, and against the cage is hard to read. He is great at mixing up his striking & grappling and can control opponents against the cage for long periods of time. Usman has great mat returns and will bring his opponents back down with nasty slams. He has nice trip takedowns as well and is just a very dynamic, diverse wrestler overall. He does a good job landing hard ground & pound from mount, staying heavy and controlling position. He will work to get into half guard where he is heavy, to attack with kimuras and try to move to mount. He has a strong mount and hard G&P. He has good arm triangles and that’s his only submission victory. Usman needs to use his jab and feint snatch singles on the feet and come up with shots. When Woodley is worried about the strikes he should try to get the takedown off the single. If he can get Woodley to move backwards, get him static against the cage, then he can try to control him there as well.
I have been calling Usman to be the champion for a couple years now and here is the chance for me to be right. I think the wrestling between these two will be a wash and this fight should stay standing for the most part. I expect both guys to throw bombs, and either guy could get KO’d here, so that is the worry. But I think this goes all 5 rounds and I like the younger fighter to be the more active fighter and pushing forward more. I think Usman wins a 49-46 or 48-47 UD here to take the belt from Woodley.
On DraftKings, Usman is definitely my preferred play. I think it would be hard for him not to get at least 10x in a 5-round decision and he is one of my favorite underdogs. I just am not sure how high his ceiling is because I don’t expect many/any takedowns from him. I think he will need a KO to score highly in a striking match and I’d lean against that happening. I think you can fade this fight in GPPs because I expect Usman to be the super chalk of underdogs, but I will be locking him into cash games. You can stack this fight in cash games as well. I will only be using Woodley as a hedge though for my GPP lineups and I will be overweight to Usman.
Winner – Kamaru Usman via Unanimous Decision
Jon Jones $9,600 vs Anthony Smith $6,600
Jon Jones
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 84.5”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 17-1-1
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -800
This is a David vs Goliath matchup. Jon Jones has defeated All-Time greats and UFC champions left and right over his career & now he’s getting a bit of a journeyman. Anthony Smith has 13 losses & doesn’t have the legacy of a Shogun, Rampage, DC or even a Gustafson. Smith is 3-0 since moving up to 205 lbs with 3 finishes to earn the shot. He is a +550 underdog and is really up against it. He will be taking on who a lot of people see as the best of all time. Jon Jones is essentially unblemished in his career & has dominated basically every opponent he’s ever faced. He seems to finally be putting the problems behind him & is fighting for the second time in a short period of time. Jon Jones is one of the greatest talents to ever grace the octagon. He returned from a long layoff against Alexander Gustafson not missing a beat, totally nullifying him before taking him down & having his way. Jon Jones is a great kicker and uses his reach fantastically. He throws leg & oblique kicks to the knees, and front kicks & teips to the body. The oblique kicks to the knees break the rhythm of his opponents and make it hard for them to get their games going. Jones has a decent jab, a good overhand right and check left hook. His left hook is very effective. He prefers to land shorter combinations in exchanges rather than get in extended combinations. Jones always has his lead arm extended to keep range and is notorious for poking fighters in the eyes because of this. He likes to control one wrist and come over the top with elbows and is very good in close range as well. He will throw nasty spinning elbows, front elbows, and he possibly has the best elbows in the game. Jones has nasty head kicks from southpaw with little to no tell and can get them up to the target quickly. He pelted Gustafson with many head kicks in their first match, as well as finished Daniel Cormier with a head kick. His boxing looked much improved vs Gustafson and he only continues to get better. Jones has never been known as a big power puncher, but he has 10 KO/TKOs on his record, two back to back, and a hell of chin. He has never even been dropped in a fight.
Jones is phenomenal in the clinch. He has nasty front elbows, and elbows over the top from the single collar clinch, and he breaks the clinch with a nasty spinning back elbow. He has nasty uppercuts in the clinch, and strong knees to the body & head. He wears fighters out in the clinch and has great cardio. He will use what some people call a dirty technique, where he wrenches on his opponent’s shoulders. He was able to pull Teixeria’s shoulder out of socket and severally diminished him for the remainder of their fight. He is an incredible MMA wrestler. Jones likes to back opponents to the fence, where he has a strong double leg takedown. He has good inside trips in the clinch, and strong body locks. He has a good single leg as well and does a good job of chaining his takedowns together until he can finish. On top, Jones has some of the best G&P in MMA history. He has vicious elbows, he can smash opponents with elbows even from the full guard. He was able to batter Alex Gustafson from mount before Gustafson gave the back & Jones finished the fight. He likes to get the crucifix and throw nasty elbows, and he also has a great mount. He has been doing a lot of BJJ lately, and he has rounded out that part of his game as well. He has a nasty guillotine choke, & he can get it from standing position such as vs Lyoto Machida. His arms will help him in setting up chokes on the ground, and I see him trying to get this fight to the mat quickly. Jones has 6 career submissions & has never been submitted himself. He has an iron will and let Belfort break his arm before coming back to defeat him. He apparently did not train for the first Gustafson fight, and was still the fighter who was able to push harder in the championship rounds. He truly is a fighting savant and has some of the best IQ & mid-fight adjustments ever seen. I see Jones trying to get this fight to the mat early. If Smith comes out aggressive I see Jones ducking under, getting a takedown & trying to go to work from top position. I feel if Jones gets on top of anyone in the division, he has a chance to finish the fight.
Anthony Smith
Age: 30
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Factory X Muay Thai/MMA
From: Nebraska
UFC Record: 7-3
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +550
Anthony Smith is a very aggressive Muay Thai striker, and he has to let it go once again here. Smith has a nice jab & will throw a nice jab, left hook combination. He will throw a nice slip left uppercut & will throw the left hook to the body as well. His lead left hook is something he tends to use a lot. He has good one-twos & his straight right hand is powerful. He will throw it early & often. He is good at throwing the straight right hand, expecting the counter, avoiding it & landing a counter left hook or second straight right. Smith isn’t the fastest with his hand speed & can be countered. He is definitely a better kicker than puncher. Smith throws chopping low kicks, which he needs to use here. Smith has hard body kicks. He likes to throw a left hook, body kick combination. He will also throw straight left, body kick combo. He likes to throw front kicks & front knees to the body. Smith does a good job of throwing head kicks after combinations. He will get opponents moving backwards with punching combos & finish with a head kick they don’t see coming. Smith will also throw nice lead elbows, and he throws with bad intentions. Everything he throws he’s trying to do damage & there are not many set up shots in Smith’s game. He is going to need to go balls to the wall here in the stand up. He has to attack with reckless abandon & hope for the best. Smith doesn’t have great defense standing. Like I said, he doesn’t throw many setup shots, and doesn’t feint much. Fighters can get his timing eventually and catch him as he closes the distance. He can be hit with hard low kicks and doesn’t check kicks. He is a tough guy & proved his durability taking some big shots from Volkan Oezdemir. He has been KO/TKO’d 8 times, but only once since 2011. He had a majority of those TKO losses at the beginning of his career and in his last 29 fights he’s been KO/TKO’d twice.
Smith is good in the clinch & dangerous. He has nasty knees to the legs, body & head, and hard elbows. He was able to finish Rashad Evans with a hard shot in the clinch. Smith isn’t much of an offensive wrestler but will try to time double legs or body locks if he’s being blitzed. He was able to get on top of Volkanovski Oezdemir & finish the fight in his last match. Both fighters were exhausted & if Smith gets that tired vs Jones, he is in trouble. Smith has never showed takedown defense in his career. He stands tall & has a flat-footed style. Fighters have easily been able to get in on his legs and wrestle him to the mat. He was taken down more than once by Volkan Oezdemir who is a kickboxer. He will get a nice under hook in the clinch, frame and attack with big knees and elbows if he can deny the attempt. He has improved a bit with his stance & doesn’t stand quite as tall, but Jones should have success taking him down whenever he wants to. Smith isn’t bad off his back & actually has some pretty slick BJJ. He has very nice triangles & throws them up very quickly. He will attack with armbars from guard as well. He has good half guard sweeps & will rain down big G&P from top position. He was able to get a nice rear naked choke submission in his last victory. Smith has 12 submissions in his career. He has been submitted 5 times himself, but not in 6 years. Smith has questionable cardio, gassing out in his last match, and has never had a fight of this magnitude. He has basically gone from a fighter who wasn’t even top 15 to a title challenger in a year. Smith needs to just go for it here. He is outgunned standing, in the wrestling, on the ground, doesn’t have the cardio or IQ of Jones, and really just has a punchers chance here. He needs to land a big shot that knocks Jones out or severally diminishes him for the remainder of the fight.
I think this is Jon Jones easiest fight since before he won his belt back in 2011. Anthony Smith has been on a decent run, but he hasn’t beat anybody great and he has never faced anybody like Jon Jones. I expect Jones to easily dominate this fight and he can do it on the feet or the ground. He could win with a knockout or a submission, or he could just dominate for 25-minutes. I don’t see one area that Smith is better at in this matchup and I think a lucky KO is the only shot he has. Jones is currently a -800 favorite, but I think that isn’t high enough. I would line Jones closer to -1500 in this spot and if you want to throw him in multiple parlays, I think that is fine. I have a few open parlays on 5Dimes and Jones is in all of them. I would be very shocked if he lost this fight and I expect him to win in the first 2 rounds with brutal ground and pound elbows.
Jones is a lock for my cash game lineup this week at his -800 betting line. I will take that free square and move on. He should dominate this fight and he can finish it on the feet or the ground. I expect him to score more than 100-points and I am totally fine with paying $9.6k for that. When I am making lineups, I want to try to get at least 10x from every fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points from him. That is how I look at it. If this was a 3-round fight and I didn’t think Jones would get a finish then maybe he only scores 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t want that. However, this is a possible 5-round fight, and I do expect Jones to dominate, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get away from Jon Jones because he will be very highly owned. If he is 50% owned by the field and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then that will pretty much kill off half the field since that wouldn’t be enough points to put him on that $50k lineup.
Winner – Jon Jones via 2nd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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