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BigMarley3’s UFC 234 DraftKings breakdown

BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown

 

Event – UFC 234                                                                                                                                                                                    Location – Melbourne, Australia

 

Thanks for purchasing my UFC 234 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.

 

This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings changed up their contests a bit and I like the new selection of contests and prizes. The main GPP is now a $10 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $30k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

 

A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.

 

With that said, let’s break down these UFC 234 fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:

 

Jonathan Martinez $8,500 vs Wuliji Buren $7,700

Jonathan Martinez

Age: 24

Height: 5’7

Weight: 135

Reach: 69.5”

Gym: Different Breed MMA

From: Texas

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 391

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -160

 

Jonathan Martinez, is a former flyweight, who seems to be making the move to 135 in the UFC. He had a decision loss against Andre Soukamthat in his UFC debut, but he had good moments. Martinez is a decent striker with good kicking technique. He is a south paw & has a nice body kick, and good straight left. He will throw a body kick left hook combination. He will throw a lot of rear leg head kicks. He will throw inside leg kicks, and he has good front kicks to the body. He will throw oblique kicks to the knees as well. He will throw a jab left hook combination. He will throw right hook left uppercut combinations. He doesn’t have great footwork & is far too flat-footed. He will stand in front of opponents & is hittable. He is willing to take shots & counter, and he does have solid power. He has 5 KO/TKOs, and he does have a solid chin. He showed a lot of resilience in his last match, being hurt several times, but being able to not just recover, but deal out his own punishment.  He has never been finished by strikes.

Martinez is a solid jiu-jitsu player, and tricky off his back. He will duck under into the clinch at times & does a good job with head positioning & moving his opponents back to the cage. He was dominated in the clinch being hit with big knees, shots to the head and being way too defensive. He has good body lock takedowns against the cage. He has good single legs & if he can’t get them he will throw hard elbows during the disengage. He has good control in half guard & will throw hard elbows. He does a good job of moving to side control & then scrambling to the back when opponents try to stand up. He has decent rear naked chokes. His takedown defense is questionable, but he’s good off his back. He’s very good at attacking with triangles & will transition from the triangle to the armbar. Martinez is very tough and will weather a storm & come back if he needs to. He has great cardio. Martinez needs to keep this fight on the feet & utilize range striking to defeat Buren. He needs to use more lateral and in & out movement, to negate opportunities for Buren to take him down.

 

Wuliji Buren

Age: 28

Height: 5’9

Weight: 135

Reach: 69”

Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA

From: China

UFC Record: 0-2

Fight Matrix: 379

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +140

 

Wuliji Buren is in dire need of a win. He is 0-2 in the UFC and needs a win to stay in the organization. He is a physical grappler, who will have a significant size advantage. I also believe he will have a sizeable strength advantage. Buren is a stiff striker, but he is aggressive and throws with power. He will throw a stiff jab and overhand right. He will throw one-twos down the middle. He throws heavy leg & body kicks. He is always going forward & fights at a kinetic pace.  He will throw spinning back kicks to the head. He can get clipped with shots coming in & can run in with shots taking power off them. His main goal is to get the fight to the mat. He only has 1 TKO in his career & he’s been finished via strikes twice.

Buren is a dogged wrestler, and always trying to get the fight to the mat. His best takedown is his single leg & when he gets a hold of the leg he will turn the corner, off balance opponents & dump them. If they try to limp leg out, he does a good job of staying connected and jumping on the back or a front head lock position. He will throw hard overhand rights directly into singles. He will shoot doubles as well. He will lean on opponents in the clinch and does a good job of getting body locks directly into half guard. He will continuously shoot takedowns & it breaks the rhythm of strikers. He has the cardio to push for all three rounds at a fast pace. He is going to be the physically stronger fighter, and he needs to use that to his advantage in this match. He needs to close the distance, get into boxing range, land shots, duck under and get takedowns. He needs to be safe on top, pass the guard of Martinez and control on top. He is dangerous with submissions and has good arm triangles and rear naked chokes. He has 4 submission victories in his career. He has been submitted once himself.

 

This is a low-level fight and both guys could be fighting to stay in the UFC. I really haven’t been impressed with either guy, but I’ve been less impressed with Buren. Buren is going to have to get this fight to the ground and try to lock up a submission to win. I do think he is live in this fight with his wrestling, I just don’t see him being able to get a submission and I am not sure he can keep Martinez down if he is able to get takedowns. On the feet I think Martinez is clearly the better striker and puts out a much higher output. Buren pretty much just throws one strike at a time and if he is forced to stay standing then Martinez should light him up on the feet. Martinez does have 5 (T)KO wins and Buren has been (T)KO’d twice, so I think the knockout could be an outcome here, but if it goes to a decision I think he will do enough work to get the win.

On DraftKings, I don’t love this fight, but Martinez is my preferred play. I think he will be very low owned and that is the main thing I like about him since I think the KO is in play. I think Buren will be higher owned than Martinez because of his wrestling, but I think Martinez is the better overall fighter here, so I might just fade the Buren ownership and just get a bit of leverage to Martinez instead. With 100 lineups I can see me having at least 1 lineup with every fighter, but if I was making 20 or less I would just full fade Buren in GPPs. I think he is a better cash play than a GPP play because if he doesn’t get finished then he has a solid floor and should land a few takedowns. He could get 30 or so points in a loss, but I think there are better punt spots, so he probably won’t make my cash LU either. Martinez is a GPP only play but I think 15-20% is a good number for him.

Winner –  Jonathan Martinez 3rd round (T)KO

 

Jalin Turner $8,700 vs Callan Potter $7,500

Jalin Turner

Age: 23

Height: 6’3

Weight: 170

Reach: 75.5”

Gym: Adrenaline Combat Sports

From: California

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 433 (WW)

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -230

 

Jalin Turner is a very tall, long striker. He is very athletic, and much faster & more explosive than Potter. Turner is only 23 years old and should be rapidly improving time in time out. Turner has a very nice straight left hand and is very fast. He has a good check left hook & strong inside leg & body kicks. He has a nice straight left hand into a knee to body combination. He has good front kicks to the body. He has solid lateral footwork & does a good job of landing a shot and angling off the cage.  He does an excellent job of ripping the body with hooks and has big power on the shots. He will throw nice head kicks, especially when he has opponents backed up against the cage. He will throw nice standing elbows. He will go for the kill when he has opponents hurt & he is a finisher. He doesn’t move his head much & has had major chin problems in his career. He has been KO/TKOd 4 times in his career and was brutally knocked out in his last fight.

Turner is a decent grappler and uses his length to his advantage. He has good sprawls on take downs attempts and will attack with front chokes. He does a good job of creating scrambling scenarios right away when the fight hits the ground & scramble back to his feet. He does go for double legs when he gets hurt, but overall is not a great wrestler. If he does get put on his back, he isn’t very good. He doesn’t do much off his back & can be controlled for entire rounds. He needs to go forward & not allow Potter to push him back to the cage. If this fight is on the feet he has a major speed advantage, and could easily knock Potter out. He needs to avoid being put on his back, along with getting hit with a big shot.

 

Callan Potter

Age: 34

Height: 6’1

Weight: 170

Reach: N/A

Gym: Renegade MMA

From: Australia

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 177 (LW)

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +190

 

Callan Potter is a UFC new comer from Australia who is taking this fight on short notice. Potter is replacing Alex Gorgees, on about 2 weeks’ notice. He is normally a 155er as well and is going to be the smaller fighter in the matchup. Potter is an experienced fighter and has earned his stripes on the regional scene with over 20 fights. He is not young, at 34 years old, and needs to win to have much of a UFC future. Potter is not the most athletic guy and going to be much slower than Turner. He is a plodder & a bit stiff. He will keep a high guard, throw a jab & straight right hand. He will throw nice rear leg body kicks. He relies on his toughness to close the distance, and he will throw in combinations in the pocket. He will throw straight right-hand lead uppercut combinations and will attack the body with hooks. He will throw a check left hook & then crash into the clinch. He will throw tricky head kicks that look like they are going to the body and has 3 head kick knock outs. He ducks his head a lot & does not move his head. He is extremely hittable, and eventually his chin will not be able to take it anymore. Overall, his striking is a means to an end, and he uses it to close the distance. He does have decent power if he can land clean, he can knock opponents out. He has 6 KO/TKOs in his career. He has a good chin & toughness, but he is very hittable and been finished 3 times via strikes.

Potter is always looking to get a hold of opponents, and grind. He does a great job of using his punches to create opportunities to duck under & get in the clinch. He is strong with the double under hooks position. He likes to push opponents against the cage & will throw hard hooks to the body & knees. He has no problem grinding opponents on the cage & just winning a decision. He doesn’t have great takedowns, but he is very active looking for body lock takedowns & has great cardio. As he continues to push for takedowns they become easier in the later rounds. He has good judo tosses as well, and when he gets on top he is very good. He works very quickly, has great guard passing, will immediately move to mount, where he is very heavy. He constantly will be searching for guillotines & rear naked chokes. He will transition from the back to the mount & slowly cook his opponents. Potter has 10 submissions, but he has been submitted 4 times. Potter needs to stay attached to Turner, the entire fight, and try to completely avoid a striking fight. He needs to get Turner to the cage, control him there & eventually get to top position & do damage while looking for subs.

 

This is one of my favorite fights on the card from a DraftKings perspective. The line for FDGTD is -335 and both guys have been (T)KO’d 3 times each. Turner is a dangerous striker and should have a decent edge on the feet in this matchup. He is -165 ITD and all of his wins have come in the 1st round. However, he was knocked out only 4 months ago, so I think he is coming back too soon, and he is also flying to the other side of the world to fight an Australian in Australia. If this fight was in America and that KO wasn’t so recent, I would be on Turner heavily here and he would be one of my top plays on the card. However, I don’t see either of those things going in his favor and I wouldn’t be surprised if he got knocked out by the lower-level striker, or maybe being knocked down and submitted. I think Potter is very live in this fight and if he can get takedowns then I think he will have a big edge on the ground and should be able to get a finish. I also think the longer this fight goes the more it will favor Potter. He has won 9 of his last 10 fights and his lone loss came from Marcin Held who would probably submit Turner pretty quickly as well.

On DraftKings, Potter is my preferred play, but I think this is a great fight to go all-in on if you are making 20 or less lineups. I do think this fight ends ITD and whoever does win has a good shot of being on the optimal lineup at their salary. I prefer Potter because there are not a lot of underdogs I like this week and I think as long as he can avoid getting KO’d himself, he wins this fight. I do think this is a GPP fight only with the two fighter’s floors, but since I have Potter getting the win I have messed around with him in my cash LU as well. I like targeting Australians in Australia, and I like targeting against Australians in American. Since this fight is in Australia, I am going to side with Potter and pick him to get a finish.

Winner – Callan Potter via 2nd round submission

 

Lando Vannata $9,300 vs Marcos Mariano $6,900

Lando Vannata

Age: 26

Height: 5’9

Weight: 155

Reach: 72.5”

Gym: Jackson’s MMA

From: New Mexico

UFC Record: 1-3-2

Fight Matrix: 119

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 1-2-2

Current Streak: 1 Draw

Betting Odds: -390

 

Lando Vannata has had some super fun fights in the UFC, but also taken a lot of damage. He looked improved in his last fight compared to his two prior, but his defense is still lacking. He has left Jackson Wink for this fight and says he feels reinvigorated.  Vannata is a dynamic striker with good wrestling. He has tremendous movement, is very flowy and hard to time. He is constantly faking, fainting and trying to keep you thinking. He will keep his hands low and use very good head movement to avoid shots and come back with counters. He has very crisp punches, nice combinations and has really nice kicks. He will throw sanchai kicks, spinning heel kicks, and his KO of John Makdessi was a thing of beauty. He has nice leg kicks. He has a good spinning back fist. His chin is solid he has never been finished with strikes in his career and has been in some wars. He has 4 KO/TKOs himself.

Vannata is a former wrestler and will shoot on some takedowns but doesn’t have great finishing ability after he gets you down. He is extremely fast, athletic and will dart in & out making it hard for his opponents to find their range. He is very hard to hold down. Teymur took him down a couple times but could not hold him down.  I don’t see him shooting for takedowns at all in this matchup and using his wrestling in reverse to keep it on the feet. He has a few submissions, he has gotten a rear naked choke, heel hook and arm triangle. Vannata should be smart here & take Mariano to the ground. If he can get him down, he should have a major advantage and I could see a ground & pound or submission finish.

 

Marcos Mariano

Age: 32

Height: 6’2

Weight: 155

Reach: N/A

Gym: Killer Bees

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +320

 

Mariano is a kick boxing world champion, and purely a striker. He is a very long fighter with a wide stance. He has a good jab & heavy low kicks. He needs space to be successful, and throws a lot of front kicks, and front knees to the body. He has good distance control, and in & out movement.  He is very wild and will throw a ton of spinning back kicks to the body & head. He will throw flying knees. He has that tall man defense, and instead of moving his feet, he just leans back, and if he does this against Lando I can see him getting knocked out cold. He doesn’t have big power, and he relies more on volume. He has 2 KO/TKO’s and has been TKO’d once.

Mariano is not a good grappler. His takedown defense is very bad & he will back himself up to the cage only making it easier. He is decent in the clinch when he gets the plum, he’s aggressive with knees & elbows. He can be taken down in the clinch very easily, along with doubles against the cage. Off his back he will attack initially in his guard with leg locks & try to stand up, but once opponents get established on top he does nothing. He lies flat on his back and allows fighters to beat him up & get in dominant positions. He is calm, and won’t panic, but his ground game needs major work. He has been submitted twice in his career & has one submission. His cardio is not great, and he slows down in round 3 due to all the explosive movements he does. Mariano is in for a tough fight here. He can’t end up on his back in this fight. He needs to try to keep the distance & time Vannata coming in with a big kick or knee & knock him out.

 

I was not impressed with the film I saw on Mariano and I think the only way he can win is by knockout. Even if this fight does stay standing he won’t be fighting at a higher pace than Vannata, so I don’t think a decision win is going to be possible unless he can drop Vannata multiple times. To me, this seems like a layup fight for Vannata and I think he can win by KO, sub, or a decision. It almost looks like the UFC wanted to get Vannata a win after 0 wins in his last 4 fights and that is the only reason this Mariano guy got the call. You’d think they would at least give it to an Australian fight, but nope, this 6-4 guy with zero ground game got the call instead. I think Vannata submits him in the 1st or 2nd round and if this fight does go to a decision I think Vannata still has a high ceiling if he mixes in takedowns.

On DraftKings, Vannata is my preferred play and he is one of my favorite plays on the card. I think he will get a lower ownership than he should because he has a 1-2-3 UFC record, so I think more than 25% or so would put us overweight and that is what I will be doing personally. I think with 20 or less lineups I would fade Mariano or use him in 1 lineup at most. With 100+ LUs I will take a few shots on him in case he can get the KO, but those will be more hedge lineups because I will have a good amount of Vannata. I think Vannata is playable in all formats and if he sets the high pace we have seen him fight at in his first few fights then I think he has one of the highest ceilings on the card.

Winner – Lando Vannata via 1st round submission

 

Kyung Ho Kang $9,400 vs Teruto Ishihara $6,800

Kyung Ho Kang

Age: 31

Height: 5’9

Weight: 135

Reach: 72”

Gym: Busan Team Mad

From: South Korea

UFC Record: 3-2-1

Fight Matrix: 79

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -425

 

Kyung Ho Kang is a big, strong BW with well-rounded skills. He likes to stalk opponents & keep heavy pressure. He will keep his hands low, and tries to stay loose as he pressures, but he does get his guard up when he gets into range. He needs to be weary of that early, because Ishihara is explosive. He has nice round kicks to the body, and hard hooks. He has very smooth striking, he throws nice front kicks to the body and straight punches. He will throw spinning heel kicks and fight ending techniques, he is fast and keeps you at the end of his combinations. He can also move & counter showing that in his last match throwing nice counter right hooks, and hard leg kicks. He did a much better job with his defense vs Ramos as well. He can get backed to the cage and shell up instead of moving. He has been dropped quite a few times in the UFC, but only KO’d once. He has good recoverability and the ability to push through bad situations to come out on top. He only has two TKOs and isn’t much of a standing knockout threat.

He is primarily a grappler and has tremendous timing on his shots and strength on his body locks. He will also circle to the back and get standing rear naked choke positions. He will also dive on guillotines. He has good double leg entries as well, and a great wrestler overall. He is good at controlling top position and landing ground and pound. He will achieve dominant positions on the ground like mount and throwing hard elbows. He attacks with submissions like armbars and triangles. He is big and strong for the division and also has good cardio and is relentless with pressure. He has good scrambling ability, great accuracy with his ground and pound standing in your guard. He is active & he will do enough to not get stood up. He was able to control Ricardo Ramos on the ground, who is high level and avoided the submission attempts pretty easily. He is very calm in bad positions and hard to submit. He has good takedown defense, and if you do get him down he has a great guard, and good get up game. He is going to have a major grappling & cardio advantage, and this is a fight he should win. Kang should try to use the path of least resistance & try to control Ishihara early tire him out get him on the ground & find the submission.

 

Teruto Ishihara

Age: 27

Height: 5’7

Weight: 135

Reach: 69”

Gym: Team Alpha Male Japan

From: Japan

UFC Record: 3-4-1

Fight Matrix: 186

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 1-4

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +340

 

Ishihara is getting one final chance to save his UFC career. He started his UFC career 2-0-1 but has been very up and down since. He is 1-4 in his last 5 and was finished in round one in his last fight. He is taking on Mr. Perfect Kyung Ho Kang. Kang has looked good since returning from his layoff, and in my opinion, he is 2-0. He lost a controversial split decision to Ricardo Ramos in his last fight, in which I thought he won. Ishihara is a dangerous fighter in round 1. He is a southpaw who is light on his feet with good in & out movement early. He has a nasty straight left hand with big power, that can close the show. He will throw body kicks, and inside leg kicks. He gets tired very quickly, in rounds 2 & 3 his volume slows, and becomes much more hittable. He doesn’t disguise when he’s going to enter well and doesn’t set his left hand up with any feints or a jab. He will go high with his rear leg and has a decent head kick. He has had 2 draws in his career & it’s because he usually dominates round 1 almost finished, then gets beat up the final two rounds as he tires. His power is really the only distinguishing thing about his game, and he has 8 KO/TKOs. He has a good chin & only been finished once by strikes in his last fight.

Ishihara is an average offensive grappler, and he likes to use takedowns especially in the later rounds. He will use punches to crash the distance into the clinch, but it is a bit sloppy. He is strong in the clinch & he does a good job of circling to the back and getting suplex takedowns. He will control fighters against the cage and will look for the Muay Thai plum and throw knees. On top he just really looks for control & hold time to recover his stamina and bank rounds. He isn’t a good defensive wrestler and can get out wrestled for 3 consecutive rounds. He has shown that by losing an embarrassing decision against an older Gray Maynard getting completely out grappled. Ishihara also has questionable fight IQ and doesn’t seem 100% invested in his career, IMO. He needs to try to take Kang out in round 1. We have seen Guido Canetti hurt Kang with some big shots early, and Ishihara has to try to go out there and do the same. If this fight goes to the later rounds & Ishihara starts to force the wrestling, there is a high chance he will be submitted.

 

This looks like another easy fight on paper. Teruto has zero ground game and is decent on the feet. He is more so decent on the feet because he has KO power, but he could have a slight edge on the feet in this fight either way. I do think Kang can hang on the feet though and I am not super nervous about the power of Teruto, so I think he will be fine as long as he does eventually shoot for takedowns. On the ground, this fight won be close. Kang should be able to get takedowns and if he does then I think he will be able to lock up a submission at some point in the fight. I have to assume that he is smart enough to know that is how he wins this fight, so I like him a good bit and I think he wins in the first 2 rounds. This should be a KO or bust fight for Ishihara, but he does have 8 KO’s on his record, so he could make it a sweat while it is on the feet.

On DraftKings, I like Kang a good amount. I think he can get multiple takedowns in this fight and I also see him getting the finish. I think he has a good chance of getting at least 10x his $9.4k salary and I like to use him and Vannata more so than I do Adesanya, who could be higher owned. I don’t trust anybody on this card to be all-in on them, but Kang and Vannata are two of my top plays on the card and most of my lineups will have one or the other, if not both. Ishihara, on the other hand, is a solid fade if you are making 20 or less lineups. He could get the KO so if you want to take a shot on him I think that is fine as well, but my shots will be purely to hedge my Kang lineups. If I was just making a few lineups I wouldn’t have Ishihara on my radar at all.

Winner – Kyung Ho Kang via 2nd round submission

 

Kai Kara-France $9,000 vs Raulian Paiva $7,200

Kai Kara-France

Age: 25

Height: 5’5

Weight: 125

Reach: 66.5”

Gym: City Kickboxing

From: Australia

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix: 28

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W12

Betting Odds: -300

 

Kai Kara-France is a superb striker & extremely technical. He is a nasty Muay Thai striker. He has had a lot of pure Muay Thai fights also in his career. He is very technical, he likes to control the center of the cage with a high guard and walk opponents down. He has great footwork and does a great job of sliding into range to land his punches. He does a great job of side stepping and using mis direction to find openings for his punching combinations. He has a great jab, both to the head and the body. He likes to draw out shots from his opponents, so he can slip and return. He has a nasty overhand right, left hook combination. He will pepper his opponents keeping heavy volume, doubling and tripling up the jab before throwing a hard uppercut left or right hook. He is diligent attacking the body with hard hooks. He likes to throw fade away check left hooks as he’s angling off and slip overhand rights in the pocket. He has nice leg kicks and will throw high kicks at the end of combinations. When he starts to land specific combinations, he will feint the combinations, and then throw a different strike, really keeping his opponents guessing. He has 10 KO/TKOs and is a very dangerous striker in space. He has been KO/TKOd 2 times, but they were his second and third fight and he hasn’t been finished with strikes since then. He was dropped in his last fight, he didn’t seem to be hurt too badly, but he needs to be careful because Paiva can crack.

He isn’t an offensive grappler, and he uses his wrestling in reverse most of the time to keep the fight on the feet. He is very slippery and explosive when fighters try to take him down and will bounce right back up. He does a great job of getting his back to the cage when fighters attempt takedowns, and he’s able to stuff most of them. He has a great sprawl on double legs and does a great job of getting double under-hooks and pushing off when fighters try to clinch up with him. His footwork makes it hard to jam him against the cage because he does a great job of using lateral movement and staying in the center of the cage. He had a very competitive fight with Alexandre Pantoja in which he was able to stuff almost all his takedown attempts. In his last match against Elias Garcia, he did an excellent job of getting on top after sprawling and showed great G&P. He will stand up in opponent’s guards & rain down accurate punches. He does a great job of floating & transitioning while keeping top position. He has strong G&P in the wrestling ride position and will force opponents to give their backs. He has been rear naked choked twice in his only two submission losses in MMA. He was able to defend a lot of submission attempts and was very calm. He has 3 submissions in his career. He also has spectacular cardio & keeps a great pace. Kara France is the more technical striker & he needs to use that in this fight. If he can use his feints, and forward pressure to draw out the shots of Paiva and counter he will find openings for combinations. He can’t get drawn into a brawl by the style of Paiva. Paiva has better durability in my opinion and thrives in those situations.

 

Raulian Paiva

Age: 23

Height: 5’8

Weight: 125

Reach: 69.5”

Gym: Ronildo Nobre

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 117 (BW)

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W6

Betting Odds: +250

 

Raulian Paiva is only 23 years old, but he has already accumulated experience against pretty high-level opponents. He had a hard-fought split decision to earn his spot on the roster and is hoping to extend his 12-fight winning streak here. Paiva has a good jab & strong leg kicks. He will throw check left hooks, and counter right hooks. He will throw overhand right straight-left hand combinations. He definitely has power in his hands & he is aggressive. He will walk opponents down & try to get them to open up, so he can counter. He has a nasty straight right-hand counter. He throws his shots with full power, because he is not worried about being taken down. He will close the distance with straight punches & has pretty decent head movement. He will throw occasional kicks, but he is pretty much a boxer. His striking is still a bit wild, but he throws in combination & will go to war. He is someone who likes to get things back right away. If he gets hit he will return right away.  He has 3 KO/TKOs in his career & a great chin never being finished by strikes. He got hit with some huge shots in his last fight and was able to take the shots & return with his own.

Paiva is a very solid grappler. He is strong in the clinch and does a good job of using punches to get into the clinch safely. He will look for standing guillotines & to get on the back and get standing rear naked chokes. He is an awesome scrambler, and while not a good wrestler, he is great at creating 50-50 positions & ending up on top. He is excellent at defending takedowns with switches. He can be taken down & also controlled against the cage. Off his back, he has excellent sweeps and will attack with triangles & armbars. His sweeping game is dynamic, and he turns bad positions into good ones more often than not. He doesn’t really look for many takedowns himself besides the occasional clinch takedowns, but he does do a good job of catching kicks, dumping opponents & getting on top. On top he has nice elbows & will work for front chokes such as darces & anacondas. He will look to take the back, and when he needs it in round 3 will really go for it. He was able to win a split decision in a war in his last match, by winning a scramble filled 3rd round. Paiva has incredible cardio & pushes a fantastic pace. He is much more of position over submission threat &, only has two career submissions. His lone pro loss was vía decisión. He was won 12 consecutive fights, and with a record like 18-1 is someone you have to take seriously. I imagine Paiva wants to try to force Kara France into a brawl and jump on a submission if possible. He is going to be at a technical disadvantage in this fight, & he needs to make it ugly take shots to give shots & see if he can touch the chin of Kara-France.

 

This is another fight I like to target both sides of because I think it will be one of the higher paced fights and I think it can be competitive as well. I do think Kara-France has the edge on the feet and should have the takedown defense to keep it standing. He will have the crowd behind him as well, so I have a hard time seeing him lose this fight. I do think Paiva will hold his own though and will be able to make this go all 15-minutes, so I like the floor that he brings to the table at his cheap $7.2k price tag. Kara-France won a decision in his UFC debut and he scored 103 DK points with 86 sig strikes, 1 knockdown, 1 reversal, 5 advances, plus the win bonus. I love seeing a striker be able to get over 100 in a decision and he also has a chance at a finish here. He has a +185 ITD line and I think that is about right. I wouldn’t project him to finish ITD, but it won’t shock me at all either.

On DraftKings, Kara-France is my preferred play, but it is hard to not roster Paiva for his floor. I can see this being one of those cards where 5 wins can get the job done in GPPs and I like targeting a guy like Paiva who can keep this fight close and get 3 rounds of action. I might actually end up with more Paiva than I do Kara-France just because of the fighters around their salaries, but I do think Kara-France is the more likely fighter to end up on the 1st place lineup of the two. I don’t like the low salary tier at all this week so Paiva would be my top guy under Gastelum, and I do like him as a pivot away from Gastelum as well, so I will have my fair share of ownership on Paiva. I just think this is going to be one of the better fights on the card and I see it being one of the highest paced fights as well, and I think Kara-France gets his hand raised. I just think the fighters in the top tier have better shots at finishes and 100+ points so that is what will keep me from having too much of him in my lineups.

Winner – Kai Kara-France via Unanimous Decision

 

Shane Young $9,100 vs Austin Arnett $7,100

Shane Young

Age: 25

Height: 5’8

Weight: 145

Reach: 72.5”

Gym: City Kickboxing

From: Australia

UFC Record: 1-1

Fight Matrix: 154

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -325

 

The best way to describe Shane Young’s fighting style is professional. He is technical, keeps to a game plan, and drowns opponents with pressure & pace. Both of these fighters have extensive records & have seen a lot throughout their MMA careers. Shane Young has solid lateral footwork & strong inside/outside leg kicks. He will throw nice jabs to the body & head. He will throw oblique kicks to the knee & front kicks to the body. He does a great job of after establishing his jab, feinting it to create other openings. He will feint the jab & throw a hard straight-right hand, and even head kicks. He keeps very heavy pressure on opponents and throws a ton of output. He has a good double jab right hand combination. In his last fight he was keeping Dy behind the warning track the whole time, and not giving him any room to breathe. When he hurts opponents, he will swarm with body shots & then try to go upstairs, but he forgets about defense and can be hurt & countered. He relies on his chin & eating shots to keep the pressure and stay in such close range. He just overwhelms opponents, and he never slows down. He is good in the pocket, he will mix in uppercuts, hooks with both hands, but he is very hittable himself. He has 6 KO/TKOs and solid power in his straight right hand. He has a fantastic chin and has never been finished in his 16 fight MMA career.

Young is a good grappler. He does a great job of mixing in level changes into his game plan. He has great double leg entries & always having fighters on the back foot near the cage makes it easier to get a hold of them. He will go into the clinch, and has good control & knees to the body, and very nice elbows over the top. He does leave his hands low after he exits the clinch & needs to be weary of counters. When Young gets fighters down, he does have nice ground & pound elbows and will attack with submissions. He has 4 career submissions and has finished 10 of his 12 fights overall. He has phenomenal cardio & will not get tired. Young is going to need to close the distance and make this a close-range fight. Arnett will have an advantage with foot & hand speed & in the open he will give him problems. Young needs to walk through the shots of Arnett, get him going backwards and then attack the body while keeping Arnett on the back foot near the cage. If he can start to get Arnett reacting to him he can then start to sneak in his right hand and try to close the show.

 

Austin Arnett

Age: 27

Height: 6’0

Weight: 145

Reach: 73.5”

Gym: Sikjitsu

From: Washington

UFC Record: 1-2

Fight Matrix: 155

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +265

 

Austin Arnett is in his 3rd UFC fight, and earned his first win his last time out. He will be taking on Shane Young who is coming off his first UFC win as well. He is another Australian fighter out of City Kickboxing and will be looking to make a statement. Arnett is a karate practitioner. He is very quick and has good in & out movement. He has a nice straight right hand, as well as a solid jab. He will mix up his lead hand very well, and in close range double, triple up on the jab & then throw a short-left hook, or lead uppercut. He likes to throw left hooks over the top. He will throw straight right hand left hook combinations. He has nice kicks to the body & head. His head kick is accurate & I feel he should throw it more often. He has a stabbing front kick to the body & will throw sidekicks to the body as well. He has heavy forward pressure & invites a war. He is tough & will eat big shots & continue to come forward. He took a beating where he was bloodied & battered against Brandon Davis but was still marching forward. Arnett struggles vs fighters who are faster than he is. Cory Sandhagen & Hakeem Dawodu were both able to keep him on the end of their combinations & inflict a lot of damage. Sandhagen attacked the body heavy, which ultimately led to the finish, while Dawodu really targeted the front leg of Arnett. Arnett is susceptible to body punches, body kicks, and leg kicks. He got hurt by a body kick in his last match again against Humberto Bandenay. He also will make big movements to close distance at times & not set it up. Against a better striker they will make him pay for closing the distance like that. He tends to start slow & will lose round one, but his ability to take damage & continue to pressure pays dividends in the later rounds. He is able to start to land more when opponents slow down & implement his game. Arnett has 6 KO/TKOs & has a very good chin only being TKOd once by body shots. He can take big shots to the chin & eat them no problem.

Arnett will try to work in the clinch. He will try to punch himself into the clinch, but it can be sloppy at times. When he gets the clinch, he likes to dig an underhook, and then trap a wrist and land hard knees to the body. He has good elbows over the top & off the break in the clinch. He has good level changes in double legs, but he definitely prefers to get body lock takedowns. His length helps him get easy trips. On top he isn’t very active & really just wants to keep position & use it to win the round. He will take the back if possible and attack with RNC’s. He also does a good job of landing ground & pound in opponent’s guards going body head with punches. He has average takedown defense, but he does have a nice guillotine. He will go to his back with it, which I don’t really like to see because if you don’t get it you’re on bottom. Off his back, he doesn’t have great defense. He has been hit by some big elbows on the mat in the UFC and busted open. He does seem to have a lot of scar tissue & gets cut open pretty easily. He will get his feet on the hips & get back on his feet pretty well. Arnett has 5 submission victories and has only been submitted once in 2013. Arnett is going to have a solid speed advantage in this matchup and needs to use that. He needs to throw his front kick & round kicks to the body & head, close distance with his punching combinations & go forward. He will be the faster fighter in & out and as long as he can keep Young on the outside, not let him make it ugly, he has a solid chance to win a range striking fight.

 

The only reason Austin Arnett is still in the UFC is because he was able to pick up a win against an overrated fighter his last fight. I do not think he is a UFC level fighter and this seems like a gimmie fight for Shane Young. I think Shane Young is the much better fighter anywhere this fight goes, and I think he can finish on the feet or the mat. I loved the output from him in his previous fight and if he brings that same pace I don’t see Arnett having anything for him. I do think Arnett is tough and could survive a 15-minute beating, but I think Shane Young rolls here whether he finishes or not. I think Young does have one of the higher decision ceilings on the card and I think he will look to mix in takedowns even if he is winning on the feet. If that is the case, then I think he can score over 100-points in a decision win.

On DraftKings, Young is my preferred play and I like him a good bit. I like the whole $9k range so I will be mixing them all in lineups to try and be overweight on all of them because it is hard to tell who will score the highest. I would rather just get over 30% on all of them and hope to hit the nuts combo. Arnett on the other hand is an easy fade if you are making 20 or less lineups. I don’t see him getting a finish here and I think other cheap fighters have higher floors and ceilings, so I may even fade Arnett with 100 lineups. Young is in play for me in all formats and I expect to have over 35% in GPPs.

Winner – Shane Young via Unanimous Decision

 

Devonte Smith $8,600 vs Dong Hyun Ma $7,600

Devonte Smith

Age: 25

Height: 5’9

Weight: 155

Reach: 76”

Gym: Factory X

From: Ohio

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix: 68

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W5

Betting Odds: -245

 

Devonte Smith will get a step up in competition here against Maestro Dong Hyun Kim, who I guess has now changed his name to Dong Hyun Ma. Smith won his UFC debut over Julian Erosa, in less than a minute, and will be looking to prove he is a serious contender by putting another win in his ledger here. He will be fighting an established UFC fighter who has won 3 consecutive fights in the organization. Devonte Smith has been on an absolute tear since joining Factory X. He has 3 consecutive KOs all within 2 minutes and is an extremely dangerous fighter. He has a pretty nasty jab, and strong low kick. He has a great jab right hook, or jab straight right-hand combination. He has very good distance control & moves in and out very quickly. He has good straight punch combinations & his hand speed is elite. He has a good body kick. I think Smith’s leg kicks, and ability to close distance will give Ma big problems on the feet. He has dynamite in his hands, and real one punch knock out power. He has ended 8 of his 9 wins via KO/TKO. He has been finished by strikes once, more due to being exhausted and put in a position on the ground he couldn’t get out of rather than getting hurt with big shots.

Smith is improving as a grappler, but he is more of an anti-grappler, trying to use his wrestling in reverse and keep it on the feet. He is improving his footwork, and not allowing fighters to close the distance or back him towards the cage as frequently. He has strong hips and does a good job of getting his back to the cage and digging an under hook to circle off. He finished Joe Lowry with nasty elbows to the head when Lowry was attempting a double leg against the cage. He does a good job of sprawling, and sniffing shots out and stuffing them. He will go for double legs himself and has big explosive slams if he can get his hands locked. He has devastating G&P when he’s on top, and he can put people unconscious with those shots. He finished Julian Erosa with nasty ground & pound in his last match. His cardio was a problem in his one loss against John Gunther, but Gunther is a guy who eats big shots and continues to press forward with a grinding wrestling style. That was also prior to joining Factory X and becoming a full-time fighter. Smith is going to be the faster, more powerful fighter in there. Smith is going to be looking to keep it on the feet and strike here. If he can get his hands going early, get off first and throw leg kicks he could get another early finish. He needs to use smart pressure & distance control, be the aggressor, but not be overaggressive to give grappling opportunities.

 

Dong Hyun Ma

Age: 30

Height: 5’11

Weight: 155

Reach: 70.5”

Gym: Busan Team Mad

From: South Korea

UFC Record: 3-2

Fight Matrix: 129

Last Fought: 1 Year

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: +205

 

Ma has taken a year off, but his last win was in Australia, so he’s used to fighting there. Ma has a nice jab, and a very nice straight left hand. He will throw a leg kick one-two combination. He has a decent head kick. He will throw front kicks to the head. He will switch stances & likes to throw left hook straight right-hand combinations from orthodox. He will throw nice uppercuts in close range. He has a great chin, and proven his toughness going to war with Marco Polo Reyes. He still doesn’t move his head much & is very hittable. He holds his hands low & fighters who can close distance quickly exploit that. When he gets hit, he will stand & wing instead of using footwork, and recovering. He stands heavy on his lead leg & likes to jab a lot, which makes him susceptible to leg kicks. Damien Brown battered Kim’s lead leg in his last fight. Ma has 6 KO/TKOs, but he doesn’t have big power & is more of a volume fighter. He does have a good chin & you do have to put him out to finish him, but he has been KO’d twice.

Ma is a judo black belt and has solid body lock takedowns. He has good judo throws & strong clinch control against the cage. He will throw knees to the body & try to bank control time. On top he likes to take the back & he has good top pressure. He seems to not have great top control when he tries to get damage off or go for submissions himself. Even with the judo black belt, he can still get controlled against the cage & taken down. He has a good get up game and is hard to control on the mat. He does have 6 submissions, but all pre-UFC. He has been submitted twice in his career. Ma needs to use his grappling in this fight, he cannot stand with Smith. He is going to be at a 6” reach disadvantage, along with a speed & power disadvantage. He cannot take shots against a fighter like Smith like he usually does. We have seen Smith get taken down & gas out early in his career & Ma needs to recreate that game plan.

 

I expect this fight to be popular and I’d say for good reason. The line for FDGTD is -225 which is the 3rd highest on the card. Dong Hyun Ma has had a very easy road in his last 3 fights and I think people are overrating him because of those 3 wins. I think his only real chance to win this fight is to get takedowns and try to drag Smith into deep water. I just don’t think he is good enough to do that. He is also very hittable, and Smith can hit very hard. I think this is a great matchup for Smith to showcase his skills and power and I see him getting a KO in the 1st or 2nd round. I think he has too much power for Ma to take through the course of 15-minutes and I think Smith has the much higher ceiling in terms of potential, as well as DK points.

On DraftKings, I like Smith a lot at $8.6k because if he does get a KO then he will surely score more than 10x and he could knock some of the $9k guys off the winning lineup with that outcome. I think Ma will get some decent ownership as an underdog from what I have heard on twitter and podcasts, so I would just fade him if I was making 20 LUs or less because I wouldn’t want to go overweight to the 20% or so ownership he could see. I will take some shots on him with 100 LUs but I will be very underweight to the field and I will be getting my leverage on Smith instead. Smith is my favorite fighter in the midrange to target and I think gets over 100 points, so I like him in all formats.

Winner – Devonte Smith via 1st round (T)KO

 

Jimmy Crute $8,300 vs Sam Alvey $7,900

Jim Crute

Age: 22

Height: 6’3

Weight: 205

Reach: 72.5”

Gym: Greco & Stewies House

From: Australia

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix: 38

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W9

Betting Odds: -130

 

Jim Crute is returning after his debut win against Paul Craig & getting another fight on home soil. He will be taking on the short notice veteran in Sam Alvey, who is actually a more recognizable name than his original opponent Ryan Spann. Alvey is coming off a bad loss to little Nog, where he was the big favorite, but finished by KO in round 2. He is used to taking these short notice fights & keeping a busy schedule, so he will most likely be his usual self in the octagon. Alvey is a long-time veteran of the sport and has seen it all. He is 2-0 in Australia with 2 KO/TKOs, so the travel shouldn’t be an issue either. Crute is aggressive & athletic with strong grappling skills. He is pretty light on his feet & is pretty quick for someone his size. He will throw jab straight right hands and has a good overhand right. He will throw an overhand right left hook combination. He earned a finish on the DWCS with a straight right left hook combination. He will slip the jab & throw overhand lefts. He has decent head kicks, and solid body kicks. He will throw them heavy, but they aren’t very fast and still a bit stiff with his technique. Kicks are usually a prevalent weapon, fighters use to beat Alvey, so I expect him to come in with a more polished kicking game. He is training with a kickboxing legend Sam Greco. He still is green on the feet in my opinion. He uses some big movements to close distance at times without setting them up. He is hittable, and he needs to be extremely careful against Alvey who always has that KO power. Crute is a big powerful guy, but he isn’t a huge knockout threat on the feet. He has three TKOs two being on the ground from mount position. He is undefeated at 9-0 and still is very durable and confident.

Crute is a very strong wrestler with a good double leg. He has quick passes and does a great job of getting to side control and then full mount. He gets very high in the mount and will land heavy ground & pound punches and elbows. He does a great job of staying heavy in mount, and not letting fighters explode up. He can get too high on the mount and rolled at times, but he will attack with leg locks, and does a good job of winning scrambles and ending up back on top. He has nice arm triangles from top position and was attacking with nice kimuras against Paul Craig. He has good takedown defense, he has a good sprawl & will circle to the back. He was taken down a few times against Paul Craig, but he showed good defense on the mat, and good sweeps. He looked bad in his last match against Craig but said that he had a lot of jitters and I expect him to do better in this spot. Craig is going to look to move & Kick & then try to time takedowns. Alvey has had notoriously good takedown defense, and he shouldn’t press too hard to get takedowns to not gas out. He can’t get cracked here because, that’s Alvey’s one shot to win this fight. Crute has 3 submission victories in his career & I feel maybe questionable cardio, but the will to push through fatigue.

 

Sam Alvey

Age: 32

Height: 6’2

Weight: 205

Reach: 76”

Gym: Team Quest

From: Wisconsin

UFC Record: 10-6

Fight Matrix: 18

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +110

 

Sam Alvey will be taking another short notice fight and remains one of the busiest fighters in the company. He has had 16 fights since joining the UFC in 2014. Alvey is 2-1 since moving to LHW, and with a win here will get another top 15 opportunity. Sam Alvey is what he is at this point in his career. A low output counter striker, who is solely looking to land a hard-right hook and knock you out. He doesn’t throw in combination and very rarely will throw a left hand or kicks. He walks forward and tries to stay in your face. He has one punch KO power and that’s what still makes him dangerous. He will throw the occasional leg kick, and a nice rear uppercut, but overall, he is a fighter who will have you yelling at the screen to let his shots go. Alvey has 20 KO/TKOs in 33 wins. He has a good chin historically, but he did get rocked badly in a recent bout with Ramazan Emeev & then knocked out by Antonio Rogerio Noguera. He has been finished by strikes twice in his 44-fight career.

For as passive as Alvey is on the feet, he is super aggressive when it comes to grappling. He isn’t a wrestler, but he will catch kicks & when he gets on top will let his hands go and try to finish the fight with heavy G&P. His top game is wild & unless he has someone hurt or rocks them quickly once it hits the ground he doesn’t have good control. He has excellent takedown defense and will attack with front chokes. He got one against Eric Spicely who is an accomplished BJJ player. He will get the Thai clinch & throw hard knees to the head. He can be controlled against the cage against elite wrestlers, but I’m not sure if Crute can do that. I don’t think Crute will take Alvey down, and it will be contested on the feet. Alvey has 3 submissions & only been submitted one time in his career. He doesn’t get tired because he has that economical style & is dangerous to finish all 3 rounds. Alvey needs to just find that right hand. He needs to try to make Crute pay for takedown attempts with knees to the body & head in the clinch.

 

This is similar to every other Alvey fight for me and it is one of my least favorite fights on the card. Alvey fights tend to take place at a very slow rate and they usually stay standing for 15-minutes. These guys seem to like each other a lot as well so I don’t see either guy going balls out to try and take the other guy’s head off. I think this is a slow-paced fight that goes the distance and I see the winner scoring 60 or so points. I think Crute has the higher ceiling with his wrestling and size, but I think Alvey hits harder and could KO Crute. I don’t trust either guy enough to finish, but I also don’t have any real lean on this fight other than it being a 15-minute striking match.

On DraftKings, this is an easy fade for me with 20 or less lineups. Both sides would be full fades for me. With 100 lineups I will probably make 3-5 with each guy on the off chance that there is a KO, and this fight will be low owned. I don’t have a real preference on either guy, so I will have a similar ownership to both, but I will still be very underweight to the field. I think this is a complete stay away fight in cash, so it would be GPP only for me, but I suggest fading and looking at higher paced fights with more finishing potential.

Winner – Sam Alvey via Split Decision

 

Montana De La Rosa $8,800 vs Nadia Kassem $7,400

Montana De La Rosa

Age: 23

Height: 5’7

Weight: 125

Reach: 68”

Gym: Genesis Jiu-jitsu

From: Texas

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: 36

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -255

 

Montaña De La Rosa is a big athletic girl for 125 lbs. She is 5’7 with a 68” reach and will have a 3” reach advantage in this fight. Kassem is used to being the bigger, longer fighter, so this is an advantage for her. De La Rosa’s striking looked much improved against Ostovich. She was trying to accentuate her reach by throwing a jab, using better head movement, & lateral footwork. She is still a bit flat footed & fighters who are good strikers with takedown defense could give her problems. De la Rosa will throw nice check left hooks & left hook right hook combinations in the pocket. She will mix uppercuts in with her hook combinations. She will throw occasional front kicks to the body, which I feel she should do more. She is tough & will take shots to get inside and get in the clinch. De La Rosa doesn’t have great power, and never won a fight by KO/TKO. She has been finished by TKO one time against top 15 UFC fighter Cynthia Calvillo.

De La Rosa is very strong in the clinch and has good body lock takedowns. She will take shots to get in, grab an under hook, then dig her other, and is very physically strong in the clinch. She will use her length to get body lock trips & she has good control against the cage. She will throw knees to the body & elbows to the head & she had a solid Muay Thai plum clinch. She wears fighters out in the clinch & zaps their gas tanks.  She will circle to the back from the clinch & go for standing back takes. She was able to survive a deep arm bar in her last fight & showed heavy top pressure. She pressure passed into side control, took the back & got a rear naked choke finish. She also quickly jumped on an arm bar in her first UFC fight. She has earned her last 4 wins overall via submission & has 8 submissions overall. She has been submitted one time by Mackenzie Dern, but she has a good ground game. De La Rosa should look to close the distance, get on top, move to dominant positions and try to finish the fight. Kassem did not show good takedown defense against the lesser Chambers and while she attacked with submissions, if she couldn’t earn a submission against Chambers it’s hard to see her catching De La Rosa.

 

Nadia Kassem

Age: 23

Height: 5’5

Weight: 125

Reach: 66”

Gym: Australian Top Team

From: Australia

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W5

Betting Odds: +215

 

Nadia Kassem had a very lackluster debut. She earned a victory over one of the easier opponents in the division in Alex Chambers, but came in at 120 lbs for a 115 lb fight. She had taken a year and half off, and now will be moving up to 125 to face a much stiffer opponent. She will be fighting in her home country, and it will be De La Rosa’s first fight out of the US. Montana De La Rosa is coming off a hard-fought decision victory over Rachael Ostovich, and the rightful favorite in this matchup. Nadia Kassem is still only 23 years old, with a lot of room to improve. Prior to her UFC fight she had 4 fights that all ended in under 1 minute & 30 seconds. She went 3 rounds for the first time in her last fight, and I imagine her looking improved in this spot. Kassem is still very much developing as a striker. She will throw a jab & decent straight right hand. She will throw a lot of kicks, inside leg kicks, body kicks, and head kicks. She doesn’t move her head or set her strikes up well & can get countered clean. She will try to use movement and walk opponents into straight right hands & head kicks. She doesn’t have good footwork & will move way to far outside. She will be so far outside her opponents know she can’t do anything and wait and counter her huge movements back into range. She does have a spinning backfist KO, and her first 3 fights she won them all by KO/TKO. She is undefeated at 4-0 and seems like a tough chick.

Kassem is a very poor wrestler. She allows opponents to get in on her legs and take her down very easily. Alex Chambers was able to secure several takedowns, and Chambers is not a great wrestler. Kassem is better at defending takedowns in the clinch, but she can still be taken down there as well. Off her back she is actually solid. She has good triangle chokes & will look for arm bars as well. She will attack with leg locks & will use those to sweep to top position. She will throw hard elbows in top position, but she doesn’t have good top control. Kassem has a lot of improving to do, but she has the attitude and IMO the toughness. She is willing to get hit and will be cocky in the fight taunting opponents after she gets hit. She doesn’t have great cardio & was tired in round 3 vs Chambers.

 

This is a clear striker vs grappler match to me, but the grappler stands a better chance on the feet than the striker does on the ground. I think Kassem has to keep this fight standing because I don’t see her lasting if she is taken down like she was in her UFC debut. If she is taken down 4 times in this fight, then she is getting submitted at some point and I would think it only takes 1 or 2 takedowns for that to happen. De La Rosa has never landed a takedown in the UFC though, so she will have to get her 1st one here to win because Kassem will not look to get this fight to the ground. If Kassem can keep this fight standing the whole time, then I think she is live for an upset and if anyone finishes the fight on the feet it would likely be her. However, I think if this fight hits the mat one time then that could be all it takes for De La Rosa to find a submission and I think that is what happens here.

On DraftKings, I want to say Kassem is my preferred play because I really don’t like underdogs on this card and I think she does have a path to victory. I just don’t see her getting that victory and I see De La Rosa scoring 95-100 points in a first round submission, so I think she is my real preferred play. I will be pretty evenly exposed to this fight though and I would guess I have 20-25% of each fighter, but I do expect Montana to be fairly popular at her price and I am just not as confident in her as other people are. I also think if this fight gets out of the first round that she might not 10x her salary, and if she wins a decision I don’t think she ends up on the optimal lineup. I think Kassem is a GPP only play because she does have a very low floor. I think Montana is in play on all formats though.

Winner – Montana De La Rosa via 1st round Submission

 

Ricky Simon $8,200 vs Rani Yahya $8,000

Ricky Simón

Age: 26

Height: 5’6

Weight: 135

Reach: 70”

Gym: Gracie Barra Portland

From: Washington

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: 24

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W7

Betting Odds: -120

 

This is a great fight. Rani Yahya after a long career has finally gotten a well-deserved PPV spot. Yahya has won 3 consecutive fights via submission & having the best run of his UFC tenure. He is getting a big step up in competition against Ricky Simón. Simón is 2-0 in the UFC, and a phenomenal wrestler with great cardio. They are fighting in Australia & both traveling from the states which I feel favors Simón due to his gas tank. This will be Simón’s first fight out of the USA. Simón is going to be quicker, more athletic fighter on the feet with more one punch power as well IMO. Simón has a solid jab, and good straight right hand. He has a hard, left hook and will throw a left hook straight right-hand combination. He will attack the body with big left hooks & has nice rear knees to the body. He will close distance with a left hook, left uppercut, left straight combination, and uses his lead hand a lot. He has decent head movement after he throws his first shot, he will land his jab or a straight, move his head off center line, and then will dig to the body. He will throw nice spinning back fists. He has decent kicks. He will throw nice inside/outside leg kicks. He has good body kicks and will throw the occasional head kick. I feel he should holster the kicks for this match, to eliminate the risk to be taken down off them. When he backs fighters up near the cage he will get creative with his striking, throwing things such as spinning back elbows & flying knees. He will throw lead elbows. He is hittable at times, because he prefers to stay in the pocket, use head movement & return instead of using footwork to evade. In his one loss he was rocked badly with a shot prior to being finish by submission. He has gotten rocked in his last two fights as well, but he is extremely well conditioned with tremendous recoverability. He has never been finished by strikes. He doesn’t have huge knockout power, but he is still dangerous with 5 KO/TKOs in 14 wins.

Simon is a tremendous wrestler and was a great high school wrestler. He could have gone to college for wrestling, but he elected to do MMA instead. He is still very wrestling centric in his style. He does a great job of closing the distance getting double under hooks & immediately dump opponents. He has a nasty double leg & he will elevate fighters and move directly into side control. The way he ducks under for his takedowns are great & he disguises them very well with strikes. He will shoot with the head on the outside on the double leg, but he is diligent to get his head out and not get caught in a guillotine. He can wrestle all day & has an endless gas tank. He does a great job of jumping on the back after he gets double legs when opponents stand up.  He does a good job of turning the legs when he gets opponents to the mat and try to slide directly into mount or take the back. I expect him to try to use his wrestling in reverse in this match, to tire out Yahya. He has good takedown defense & an elite get up game and scrambling ability. He does a great job of giving his back to stand up & then dumping his opponents off the back by exploding. He needs to deny the takedowns from happening at all in this matchup, because Yahya is the most dangerous grappler he’s ever fought. Simón should use forward pressure, body shots & long combinations, along with takedown defense. Yahya has gassed badly many times in the past & has a suspect gas tank. Yahya always comes out in fights with his hair on fire & Simón needs to be composed early. Simón should use lateral movement and pick off Yahya with head body combinations. Yahya is much more of a top game player & fighters such as Chad Mendes & Joe Soto have won rounds through top position. I honestly feel that if Simón is careful of not getting caught in a guillotine, he will be able to get takedowns & control time if he wants it. If Simón starts to win the standup I see Yahya starting to gas and shooting constant takedowns. If Simón can get Yahya in that state of exhaustion he has a good chance to finish. Simón isn’t a huge submission threat with just two submissions. He was submitted in his last match, once again showing his warrior spirit going to sleep instead of tapping, and that in my opinion embodies Ricky Simón. He will continue to push & grind unless you take him out and is an animal.

 

Rani Yahya

Age: 34

Height: 135

Weight: 5’6

Reach: 68”

Gym: ATT

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 11-3-1

Fight Matrix: 17

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: +100

 

Rani Yahya is a submission artist, who was once a specialist, but has rounded out his striking. He has looked excellent since joining ATT and will be looking to earn his 4th consecutive UFC finish. Yahya is very aggressive on the feet and will throw with 100% power in his shots with no fear of getting taken down. He will throw a jab straight right hand. He likes to work his jab more when he switches to southpaw & will throw more rear leg body kicks from orthodox. He will crash the distance with straight punch combinations, and then throw a body kick. He will also throw a body kick to overhand right or right hook combination. When he gets inside he will let his hands go. He likes to throw uppercut left hook right hook combinations. He will brawl and gets a bit wild forgetting his defense & can get clipped. He will also close the distance at times with big obvious motions instead of setting it up better. When he is forced to strike, and gets his takedowns stuffed, he gasses quickly. His chin will go high in the air, and he becomes much more hittable. Yahya is a warrior, and when he gets hurt he will go for broke. He will start to push the pace & really try to force the fight to the ground. He was dropped multiple times by Mark Homineck before getting the back & finding the submission. Yahya is not a power striker with 0 KO/TKOs in 35 pro fights. As I stated he has a fantastic chin & has only been finished once in his career by TKO against Joseph Benavidez.

Yahya is one of the best top pressure jiu-jitsu players in the world. He has a very nice single leg. He has solid trip takedowns and does a good job of just clinching you and dragging you to the ground. On top he has great tight Jiu Jitsu, he will slowly move towards more dominant positions while looking for chokes and submissions. He has a great arm triangle and will attack with many different chokes, he has submissions in 11 different ways. He has a nice Kimura. He is a great back taker, and if he takes your back he has very good control. He is a very good scrambler, but if he gets put on his back he isn’t as effective. He will attack with leg locks to try to sweep, but he can get stuck in his guard on bottom and lose scrambles. He is very confident & in good form with a record of 7-1 in his last 8 UFC fights. His level of competition has been questionable, and he hasn’t gotten a marquee UFC win yet. Yahya is going to be hard pressed to take down a wrestler like Simón & I expect him to try & strike here at least early. I think Yahya will come out very aggressive with his striking & try to pronounce himself as the aggressor right away. I think eventually Yahya will try to get his grappling going, and if he can somehow get on top it could be a problem for Simón.

 

I think Ricky Simon is a solid prospect and he already has two real good wins on his record. This is a tough fight though because Yahya is one of the best BJJ players in the UFC and can submit anybody if he gets on top of them. I think Simon is the best wrestler he has faced in a while though and I think he can use his wrestling to keep this fight on the feet. On the feet I think he will have a big edge in this fight and all Yahya will really be doing is throwing kicks from the outside and then shooting from distance to try to get a single leg and drag Simon to the ground. If he can do that, he can win. If he can’t get Simon down, he is going to lose. I think Simon can even land takedowns of his own and be ok on top, it’s just the bottom where he can’t be with Yahya.

On DraftKings, Simon is my preferred play because I am picking him to win and I like his price tag. I am worried about him getting a low scoring decision win though by keeping this fight on the feet and being too tentative because he is worried about the takedowns. I think if Yahya wins then he most likely gets 10x or more his salary and I like him for that reason. I will make a few of my favorite Simon LUs and I will just duplicate them and throw Yahya in them instead, so I have both fights covered. I think this is a better GPP fight than it is a cash fight, but I am not against either side in cash if you have a strong opinion on either guy. But for GPPs, I will likely have 15-20% Yahya and 35% or more Simon with the hopes that Simon can get a TKO.

Winner – Ricky Simon via 3rd round (T)KO

 

Israel Adesanya $9,600 vs Anderson Silva $6,600

Israel Adesanya

Age: 29

Height: 6’3

Weight: 185

Reach: 80”

Gym: City Kickboxing

From: Nigeria

UFC Record: 4-0

Fight Matrix: 8

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W15

Betting Odds: -630

 

This is a dream matchup. Anderson Silva arguably the P4P best fighter of all time, used to be looked at how we see Adesanya right now. A dynamic knock out artist, bringing something new, never quite seen before in MMA. Adesanya is a massive favorite, and if Silva can turn back the clocks here it would be shocking. Adesanya’s stand up game is on another level than his MMA opponents, he is a technician. He likes to snipe at you with single shots while using great footwork and head movement to be out of the way of his opponent’s shots. His head movement and slipping ability is incredible. He throws nice long straight shots and finishes with hard leg kicks or will go high with the head kick. He does a great job of sliding in and out of range, and always controlling distance. He has a nasty straight right hand, and a good knee to the body. He is creative with his strikes as well using the cage to jump off and throwing nice spinning techniques. He has a great step in knee. He has a great left hook to the body that ends fights and does a great job of finding the openings high and low. He doesn’t worry about loading up for hard punches instead just peppering and wearing away at opponents is his preferred method. He is constantly switching stances to give his opponents new looks and attack off new angles. He is also playing with his back hand and feinting and moving it to try to get reactions out of his opponents. He has a great chin and is used to fighting against much better, more technical strikers. He doesn’t have big one punch knock out power, but he is a volume guy who slowly picks at you until fighters can’t take it anymore. He is undefeated in MMA and is extremely confident coming into this match. He took Derek Brunson out very surgically in his last match, but also shown he can win decisions. He has great cardio all 5 rounds vs Brad Tavares. Adesanya has knocked out 13 of his 15 opponents.

Adesanya isn’t a grappler, and you will very rarely if ever seen him shoot for a takedown or try to get in the clinch. He has really improved his takedown defense, and even though he isn’t super bulky or muscular he is very strong in clinch positions. He does a good job of getting the Thai clinch and landing nice short elbows and knees. He has great hips and does a good job of getting his back to the cage if opponents get in on his legs where he is very hard to take down. He is very strong in the upper body clinch, and is hard to control there, he will reverse and turn fighters against the cage or disengage. He can be taken down by body locks sometimes, and when he is on his back he has a decent guard, but it is purely defensive. He doesn’t go for many submissions, but he does a solid job of controlling posture and not taking much damage. If you take him down in the center of the cage which is very hard to do, he doesn’t have a great get up game and can be controlled from there. He did roll for a leg lock in his fight against Tavares, it wasn’t even close but at least it is showing he is growing and confident enough to try some things in the Jiu-Jitsu realm. He has a very calm demeanor even when he is put in bad positions, and he has the confidence he will get out and get back to his feet. He will not panic, and when he returns to his feet he will still have gas and be able to attack heavy. He has never been submitted, and I actually have liked his top game from the small sample size I’ve seen. He has good control and does a good job of floating and staying on top of his opponents as they try to sweep or get up. Adesanya is going to try to keep this fight on the feet & style on Silva. If he can get a highlight reel knock out here it will be a legendary UFC moment.

 

Anderson Silva

Age: 43

Height: 6’2

Weight: 185

Reach: 77.5”

Gym: Team Noguera

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 17-4-1

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 2 Years

Last Five: 1-3-1

Current Streak: 1-3-1

Betting Odds: +465

 

Anderson Silva is 43 years old & hasn’t fought since February 2017. He isn’t getting an easy fight after a two-year layoff. He is coming off a very controversial win against Derek Brunson. Silva looked very old in this fight, not letting his shots go & looking very slow. Gone is the Silva who is front kicking Vitor Belfort in the face or Matrix’ing Stephan Bonnar against the cage. Since his loss to Weidman his mystique of “unbeatability” is gone & fighters are no longer scared of him. Silva still will look to throw a lot of jabs, fakes & feints to set up kicks. He has good front & round kicks to the body. He will throw out a one two and has a decent right hook in the pocket. He still will try to use his head movement & counter, but he has been getting hit more & his counters come slower. He does a good job of grabbing his opponent’s hands, and dragging them down, then throwing head kicks, and still has dangerous kicks from unusual angles. He has relied heavily on keeping fighters at kicking range & using his length, but in this fight, he is going to be at a reach disadvantage against a fellow kicker. Silva hasn’t scored a knock out since 2012 and is 1-4-1 in his last 6 fights. He does have 22 career knockouts. He used to have an iron chin, but his durability is diminished. He was finished twice by Weidman and rocked many times by Bisping. He has only been KOd twice in his career.

Silva used to be known as a devastating clinch fighter. He destroyed Rich Franklin with knees in the Muay Thai plum, and if he still gets that position I feel he’s still dangerous. In his last fight against Derek Brunson, he was grabbing the single collar clinch & just staying there allowing Brunson to connect with some big punches. He has never been known as a wrestler, but I do see the slight potential he may try to take Adesanya down here. Silva is a judo black belt & has decent wrestling. He has decent double leg & body lock takedowns. When he gets on top he does a great job of standing in the guard & raining down accurate punches. He is a black belt in bjj, but not a huge submission threat. He did get a triangle off his back against Chael Sonnen and attacked with kimuara’s previously. He got a rear naked choke against Dan Henderson. His takedown defense was good vs Brunson, but I don’t think he will need it here. He still has decent overall cardio. Silva is going to need to catch Adesanya with a big shot & put him out or try to use wrestling. I feel he is slower, has less of a reach and at range he may get hurt badly.

 

I think this would have been a great fight 5 years ago, but now at 43 years old, it is hard to give Silva much of a chance at all. I think Israel is going to beat up Silva on the feet and possibly finish this fight. I do think we will see some cool moves from each guy and this should be a fun striking battle, but I see it being one sided for the most part and the line is right IMO. I think if the fight hits the ground that Silva would be live for a submission, but I don’t see him being able to get takedowns so I think that makes it a KO or bust fight for him. Israel has amazing striking defense and I think he will be good enough to not get KO’d here and he should cruise to a victory.

On DraftKings, Israel is my preferred play and I think with 10 or less lineups that Silva is an easy fade. I do think Israel will have to get a knockout for him to end on the optimal lineup, so I don’t think he is a must in DK even though I think he is a safe win. I will have at least 20% Israel personally in case he can get that KO, but I do think this fight goes all 3 rounds and he wins a 30-27 victory. At $9.6k that won’t put him on the winning lineup. I think this is more of a cash play fight for both sides. If it goes all 3 rounds maybe Silva can put up 20 DK points in a loss and at his cheap $6.6k price tag he allows you to pay up for a few of the top guys. I also think Israel is the safe win though so that puts him in play for cash as well because we don’t need 100+ from him to win cash as long as we hit in our other spots. If you are making 3 or less lineups, then I would fade this fight completely. If you are making 5-10 lineups, then I would say Israel should be in 1-2. I wouldn’t throw Silva in a lineup until I hit 15-20 lineups and even then, I think you can fade him because of the possible ownership he could receive based on name alone.

Winner – Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision

 

Robert Whittaker $8,900 vs Kelvin Gastelum $7,300

Robert Whittaker

Age: 28

Height: 5’11

Weight: 185

Reach: 73.5”

Gym: PMA Super Martial Arts

From: Australia

UFC Record: 11-2

Fight Matrix: 1

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W9

Betting Odds: -245

 

After a season of TUF & a long build up the time has finally come. Kelvin Gastelum vs Robert Whittaker for the UFC middleweight title. Whittaker will be getting another home game fighting in Australia & it will be Kelvin’s first fight in the country. Both of these fighters are dangerous strikers who both have a chance to earn knock outs. Robert Whittaker is fresh off two title defenses against Yoel Romero. Being able to retain your belt twice against a monster like Yoel should give Whittaker some extreme confidence. Whittaker is a sick striker with a dangerous head kick. Whittaker is more of an outside striker & the battle for distance control will be key in this match. I see Whittaker throwing a lot of inside/outside leg kicks, oblique kicks, side-kicks to the body, strikes to keep Kelvin outside. He has a nasty stabbing front kick to the body. Whittaker is light on his feet & very good at bouncing in & out range to land combinations. Whittaker will leap in with his jab & uses it to set up other strikes. He will throw a jab low kick combination, along with a jab left hook combination. He does an excellent job of peppering his opponents with a few shots, and then landing a big shot. Whittaker likes to throw a straight right hand, then duck under the counter hook and throw a left hook. Whittaker likes to use his front leg to spring into an oblique kick or front left body kick or kick to a left hook combination. When fighters pressure Whittaker his counter left hook is nasty. Overall, he has one of the best left hands in the UFC. Whittaker has a nasty head kick that he can throw as the aggressor or going backwards. It is very hard to see coming & he has landed it clean on recent opponents. He finished Jacare with the kick & landed it flush on Romero. Whittaker has earned 9 career knockouts, including 4 in 9 wins at MW. Whittaker has a fantastic chin & recoverability. He proved that in his last match almost being finished multiple times by Yoel Romero but surviving. Whittaker has only been TKOd one time at 170 by Stephen Thompson.

Whittaker is not an offensive wrestler, but he has some of the best takedown defense in the UFC. Whittaker is a former gold medal winner, and the Australian national wrestling champion and his takedown defense is truly remarkable. He has excellent hips & a great whizzer. He does a great job of bringing his hips back when opponents attempt takedowns & will throw front knees to the body to counter. He does a great job of disengaging the clinch, and just overall is almost impossible to corral. Yoel Romero and Jacare Souza had no success in controlling from top position & I don’t think Gastelum will either. Whittaker does have quite a few submissions, but early in his career & none in the UFC. Whittaker has incredible cardio as well, and a huge will to win. Whittaker needs to use his kicking game to keep Gastelum on the outside & then blitz in and try to land hard shots. He doesn’t want to have many pocket exchanges with Kelvin & should be constantly using movement. This fight is in Australia, so you must also be weary that a close decision is most likely going to Whittaker.

 

Kelvin Gastelum

Age: 27

Height: 5’9

Weight: 185

Reach: 71.5”

Gym: Kings MMA

From: California

UFC Record: 10-3-1

Fight Matrix: 4

Last Fought: 9 Months

Last Five: 3-1-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +205

 

Gastelum has very crisp hands, and very good boxing game. He has a nasty jab & hard left hand down the middle. He throws a lot of one-twos. He will mix in powerful left hooks & left uppercuts in close range. He has good inside-outside leg kicks & a solid head kick. I feel he should throw more leg kicks in future fights. Gastelum will attack the body with kicks & front knees. He will throw the occasional body hooks as well. Gastelum uses a ton of fakes & feints false starts & tries to keep his opponents guessing. That paired with his foot & hand speed being a smaller fighter for the division, give him a unique skill set. He also possesses an iron chin & elite cardio. That gives him the ability to eat shots continue to walk forward and try to find his own like his last match vs Jacare. Kelvin has one punch power in his left hand & in my opinion is the more powerful puncher. Gastelum has 7 KO/TKOs in his career 8 if you count the KO of Vítor which was changed to a no contest due to marijuana. He has never been finished by strikes.

Gastelum is going to be the better offensive wrestler in this matchup, but I find it hard to believe he will take down Robert Whittaker. He likes to time reactive double leg shots & usually will shoot them in space rather than against the cage. He will try to snap his opponent’s heads down if he can’t get the double and try to drag opponents down. Gastelum is very hard to take down, much less hold down. He is excellent at giving his back & scrambling back to his feet. He was able to defend most of the takedowns & survive some ground positions with Jacare, and it doesn’t get much more dangerous than that. More likely than not this fight will be contested purely on the feet. I do feel Gastelum will be the more likely fighter to attempt takedowns, if it happens. He does have a good rear naked choke & he has 6 career submissions. He has been submitted one time by Chris Weidman. Gastelum is going to need to get inside this fight. He has to get past the kicking range of Whittaker, get into boxing range, and try to clip him. Whittaker can play with his hands low & while he has brilliant movement, he left some openings for Romero. Gastelum has to capitalize & hurt Whittaker when he is exiting with his hands down. Whittaker took a ton of damage in his last fight and may be riper for a knock out if Kelvin lands clean.

 

This should be a fun fight and I expect it to be one of the best fights of the night if not even FOTN. I think it stays standing for as long as it lasts, and I think we see this go all 25-minutes. My pick is going to be Whittaker because I think he is the better striker all around and I also think he has more power. If this fight does go to a decision then it will be real tough for Kelvin to get the judges nod in Australia, so I think it’s KO or bust for Kelvin. Whittaker does have a hands down style and Kelvin does hit hard and has dropped everyone he has faced at 185, so I think Kelvin is live for the KO, I just don’t see it happening if Yoel couldn’t finish Whittaker with his best shots. Whittaker averages 4.82 sig strikes landed per minute compared to Kelvin’s 3.86 landed sig strikes per minute and I expect the crowd to go crazy every time Whittaker lands anything good. I see that all leading to a UD victory, maybe 49-46 for Whittaker. My only issue is that since this fight won’t go to the ground, a decision might not be enough for a Whittaker win.

On DraftKings, I actually think Kelvin is the better play simply because it will be easier for him to be on the winning lineup if he wins. If Whittaker wins with a ~90-point decision win then I don’t think that puts him on the optimal lineup. If Kelvin gets a KO, then he will be on the optimal LU no matter what round it comes in. Overall, I will probably have about 1/3 of each fighter in my lineups but I think this is another week we don’t have to stack in cash. I think we do have a safe 100 points or so, so I am fine with the stack, but I prefer 100-point floor with upside of 160+ when I am looking to stack. I don’t see us having that 160+ upside with the stack in this fight since neither guy will be looking for takedowns. I am going to lean with the better striker in his home country, but if you are just making a few GPP lineups I think fading this fight is a solid contrarian move and I think you can fade both sides in cash games as well.

Winner – Robert Whittaker via Unanimous Decision

 

 

Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!

 

 

 

*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru

**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.

*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/

  • Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
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