What’s up guys. This week due to having a couple extra hours between qualifying and the race I am going to give some info on each driver that can apply to the entire season and who I believe are good plays and fades for Atlanta. I will choose a few drivers as “top plays” who I like the most. I won’t be able to do this every week. I do hope that by doing this I can give some extra info that will help for the entire season. If you have any questions please reach out in the NASCAR Slack channels or on twitter @Larkin8.
Christopher Bell $11900, start:3rd – Top Play – Heavy Favorite, finished 3rd here last year behind Harvick and Logano. Won 7 races in 2018. Slower in 20 lap avg but based off his speed I suspect he did it on already used tires instead of fresh sticker tires like the top of the board guys.
Cole Custer $11500, start: 1st – Top Play – Poor history at Atlanta however the 1.5 mile tracks similar to Atlanta have clearly been his best tracks. Has wins at Texas and Homestead. Team car to Harvick so info should trickle down to help. Custer can snag a some laps led and fast laps and stay top 5 and has potential to dominate and win.
Justin Allgaier $10800, start: 7th – Fade – has lacked top tier ability on 1.5 mile tracks in his time at JRM. Avg. finish of 12th at Atlanta. Just don’t see him paying for the price. I like too many other guys
Tyler Reddick $10400, start: 12th – playable – 19th in lone Xfinity race at Atlanta. Don’t see the scenario where you get value for the price. I don’t love him but can easily score 50-55 and not finish top 5.
John H. Nemechek $10100, start: 10th – Fade – Don’t think he pays off at this price. Too many other top plays. Overall though, Talented driver who will moves to the #23 for 2019. With the #42 last year JHM at the 4th best avg finish of any driver over 7 races. He also scored more points than any non-playoff driver in 15 less races. Dude is legit.
Austin Cindric $9800, start: 5th Play or Fade – Im on the fence with Austin. He is with an elite team but I just don’t love him in this spot. I could see him running top 5 all day however and sneaking away with a win possibly. One of my preseason favorites. Has massive upside now with the #22 for Penske. I predict 3-5 wins for him this year. The #22 had 19 top 5s in the 33 races. That is elite. Will make some mistakes so could ruin any weekend but will also win some weekends as well.
Ryan Preece $9600, start: 6th – fade – Little position upside. Don’t expect to contend for win. Random one off race for JRM. Preece scored 40+ in 9 of 15 races last year. When he avoided trouble he almost always finds his way into the top 6.
Brandon Jones $9400, start: 9th – fade – Simply doesn’t run good enough to score well from 9th. In 3 races at Atlanta Jones has a best finish of 11th. This is a driver I believe lacks talent and the ability to run up front. Should be faded most weeks.
Chase Briscoe $9200, start: 28th – Top Play – #98 ran a partial schedule so they start in back. Should score 50-60 if stays out of trouble. Chase has some real talent. Finally getting a chance at full time Xfinity he showed in his win at Charlotte last year he has the ability to beat everyone in the field straight up. This is the car Harvick dominated Atlanta in last year so we know they will have the setup down well.
Noah Gragson $9000, start: 4th – fade -I expect him to finish outside top 5. WIlling to make him beat me before I play him. He did Lead some laps before finishing 2nd in truck race here in 2018. Has a solid team with JRM but I expect him to have a learning curve.
Jeffrey Earnhardt $8800, start: 8th – fade – If he finishes top 10 I will be surprised. I just have little faith in him. Even if he does I am confident he can’t score much over 40. First race in top equipment where the driver matters. I do not think Earnhardt is anything more than a last name. I see a lot of underwhelming performances in his future.
Michael Annett $8600, start: 16th – playable – Not a huge fan but is a safer play than Earnhardt and has roughly same upside. 7 races at Atlanta with a best finish of 10th with a worst finish of 21st. Annett lacks ability but is also a relatively safe driver. He has a +27 position diff. in those 7 races. Could offer some value at times in this price point but overall won’t have many big scores.
Justin Haley $8400, start: 13th – play – I believe he can find his way past the 3 guys above him and scoring 45-50 points. He will need a clean race but I think he offers good value 2019 Rookie in Xfinity Series. Had a huge improvement year two in trucks. Will need to continue progressing to due well. At this price he has the potential for great value. Ryan Truex finished 9th last year in this car at Atlanta.
Garrett Smithley $8200, start: 22nd – fade – I do not see any upside here. Poor quality driver in mediocre car.
Ross Chastain $8000, start: 15th – fade – Just not enough position upside to justify for me. I expect him to score 25-32.
Jeremy Clements $7800, start: 17th – playable – can get to 35 points. Offers more upside and is safer than Chastain and Smithley. Clements has been doing this for a very long time and nothing has changed. Can expect him to run somewhere between 15th and 22nd and score 20 to 35 points weekly. Drives for his own team on a tight budget playing it safe is always important. Might not offer huge upside but is usually a solid point scorer.
Vinnie Miller $7600, start: 14th – fade – This price point is ridiculous. He $2600-$1600 more than he was the majority of last year and didn’t have a big jump in equipment. Qualifies horribly so always offers positive position gain but just isn’t a good driver. He will rarely ever have good value at this price point.
Ray Black Jr $7400, start: 2oth – fade – Will need to judge this team and Black by how they start the season. I don’t like him at this price point but in the long run could become a solid low tier play if price can drop some.
Ryan Sieg $7300, start: 18th – playable – same deal as CLements and Annett but at lower price. Shane Wilson was named crew chief for Ryan Sieg. This is a huge boost for their team and suggest they are trying to take the next step.
Joey Gase $7200, start: 32nd – play – I believe he can finish between 20th-22nd. 32-36 points is a strong score here. Couple things go right he scores 40.
David Starr $7000, start: 27th – fade – don’t see enough position upside at this price. solid driver but just a weird price to see him at. Spent almost all of last year between $5000-$5900. Starr scored really well last year for his price but will have to see if that value maintains it self $1200 more than his avg. from last year.
Gray Gaulding $6900, start: 36th – play – Offers most position upside. I can see him at +15 to +20. If he stays clean he should easily pay for himself. Similar to Ray Black who also drives for ss greenlight we will have to see how this team and driver perform. At this price he might be worth playing in the right situations.
BJ McLeod $6700, start: 29th – fade – Just not much here. Also too risky. BJ has a lot of up and down scores in his past. Some weeks he is good for 25-35. 0ther weeks -5. Simply a risky play but can reward you at this price point.
Josh Williams $6500, start: 19th – fade – Will struggle to score over 25. 24th last year at Atlanta. Jumps into the #36 this year which was the top team for DGM. Could see an uptick in finishing position for Williams this year.
Brandon Brown $6300, start: 11th – fade – will most likely fall outside top 20. Not much history for driver or team. I expect some solid finishes between 18th-25th. Will be worth playing at this price if he offers good position upside.
Mike Harmon $6200, start: 36th – fade – Not cheap enough to be a legit punt. Will probably score 16-20. Poor reliability, will finish several laps down. Zero upside.
Josh Bilicki $6000, start: 26th – fade/play – If he runs whole race I can see 25-30. Just worried if he will start and park. I don’t believe he will but hard to know for sure. I still have no idea of his ability as a driver but he went from the worst team to a solid team in RSS. The #38 had 13 finishes of 22nd or better. Considering it was sometimes a start and park car that is a solid number. I do not anticipate Bilicki being a start and park this year but play with caution
Stephen Leicht $5800, start: 30th – playable – I think he can crack top 25 and score 30ish. Solid at this price Another driver that went from a horrible team to a solid JD Motorsports team. Former winner in the series, I hope he has the opportunity to compete well. Could end up being a top low tier play early in year.
Bayley Currey $5700, start: 21st – fade – Ran little practice. Rick Ware Racing has poor quality equipment. Currey did have decent place diff. last year by starting in back scored decently for punt.
Timmy Hill $5600, start: 33rd – play – He isn’t could but he could hang around and score 25 at a cheap price. After like 5 years of nothingness I don’t expect anything to change. Not a good driver surrounded by more capable point scorers in his price tier.
Tommy Joe Martins $5500, start: 24th – fade – Just starts too high. 10 of last 15 races scored over 20 points. 7 races with 27+. At this price he could be a great play in the future.
Matt Mills $5400, start: 25th – fade/play – Too risky at this price because he can easily finish 30th. a small percentage in mass entry gpp is ok. a Has chance to match the Martins numbers considering he is taking over the car Martins drove last year. Could be a solid punt play to allow for multiple top tier plays.
Alex Labbe $5300, start: 23rd – fade/play – Just not a fan of the #90 car at this starting spot but Labbe was rather solid last year. could score 25 at a super cheap price. Solid punt play. Still with DGM but is in the lower performing car from last year. I really like him at this price though. Labbe showed some great potential in 2018. 17 top 20s last year is a strong number from a driver priced this low
John Jackson $5200, start: 34th – playable – Can hang around and score 20-25. Safer than Labbe I don’t anticipate much out of Jackson.
Jeff Green $5100, start: Fade – Start and Park team most of last year. Expect same this year as well.
Chad Finchum $5000 Start: 2nd- fade – This will be the worst play of all time. SHould be 15th to 20th by end of lap 1. Will be a better punt play later in year. Scored well at times from this price range last year. Could be a good punt play to go with Top Tier drivers.
Morgan Shepherd $4800 – Fade. Zero need to play Shepherd. Hasn’t finished a race in years.