Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also break down players who stand out on both FanDuel and Draft Kings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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Review from last week
In this section I will break down the players I wrote up from the prior week, how they did and how I played them in my line-ups.
Jon Rahm – DK: $11600 FD: $11900 – 6th – 119 DK Points
At the beginning of the week I discussed how I loved Rahm and expected ownership right around what we saw JT garner the week prior. As the week went on it became apparent that although Rahm would be very popular, he may not be the highest owned player on the slate. Ultimately, Niemann and Rose carried higher ownership, specifically with Rose I liked going with Rahm up top once it was likely they would be similarly owned.
Justin Rose – DK: $11000 FD: $12100 – T34 – 88.5 DK Points
I wrote up Rose as a player to target if we saw the ownership going away because of the change in irons. As the week went on and it became obvious this was not going to happen, I personally went underweight with Rose up top in order to go overweight on Rahm.
DraftKings Second Tier (Cantlay, Hadwin, Howell, Putnam, Mickelson)
I wrote up how my favourites for GPP were Cantlay and Hadwin while I also liked Putnam but did not really have as much interest in Howell and Mickelson. As the week went on this order did change slightly, I went to Hadwin as my favourite for GPP’s followed by Cantlay but I ultimately did not get myself on Phil Mickelson for the week.
Luke List – DK: $9000 FD: $10100 – MC – 56.5 DK Points
I wrote up List as an interesting consideration for GPP’s but a player to avoid in cash. List became quite popular within this range and I personally was underweight the 19.53% average across GPP’s. I felt in the same range you could get players in as good of a position (Reavie, Ancer) at a lower ownership.
Brian Harman – DK: $8800 FD: $10200 – MC – 43 DK Points
I liked going right back to Harman in GPP formats, but unfortunately that did not really work out well for me. Harman averaged 2.81% ownership across GPP’s but that was probably for good reason as Harman missed the cut and was never really in it after a poor first two rounds.
Daniel Berger – DK: $7700 FD: $10800 T12 – 107.5 DK Points
I was shocked to see Berger at 13.08% average ownership for the week. Berger was priced the same as ZJ who carried much more ownership (23.47%) which is still surprising to me. In this range of $7500-$8000 Berger outperformed everyone and if you played him you were likely in a good spot for the week.
Course Preview
In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.
- This event takes place at both Torrey Pines North and Torrey Pines South. Players play South three times so naturally it gets much more attention. However, I still think some consideration should be put into the North course. Last year Jason Day was able to go -8 under at North which is a huge reason why he was able to win for the week.
- Tiger is making his first appearance this season which will definitely make things more interesting. Tiger’s pair is already announced and he will be playing with Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau. There is an ongoing narrative that the intensity, energy and spectacle around Tiger has his playing partners typically play worse than you would expect. I think psychologically it would definitely impact you to play with the guy that carries the most attention & the guy you likely grew up pretending to be. Although I think that I also think guys handle the challenge differently, for a guy like Xander, who was able to play lights out in the 2017 Tour Championship with $10 million on the line I am hesitant to think the stage would be too big for him. For a guy like Finau who we often see fade away on Sunday I think it might be something you have to question a little. Overall, I think the narrative has some merit, but I personally won’t be completely off of a guy this week (or any week) who lines up great for the event because they have a round or two with Tiger.
- There is a bunch of long par fours between 450-500+ yards this week. I think if you are going to look at specific type of par fours it is certainly a benefit to emphasizing scoring (or ability to avoid bogeys) on these holes.
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Interesting Plays
In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel
Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Tiger Woods, Jason Day – Over $10k DraftKings
For the first time in a few weeks we are loaded with talent atop the leaderboard. As is usually the case, you can really make a case for just about any of these players this week. It is early which always makes it tougher to judge, but upon first look I would imagine Rose comes in as the lowest owned after a mediocre week. I do think Tiger likely carries the most ownership with Rahm and Day not too far behind. Personally, upon first look from favourite to least I like McIlroy, Rose, Day, Rahm, Tiger for GPP’s. I’m sure that’ll change throughout the week so be sure to check back to my final notes.
Rickie Fowler, Patrick Cantlay, Charles Howell, Gary Woodland, Jordan Spieth
I get Howell is playing well and in the early season swing where we usually see a ton of top twenty’s but is it not a little crazy to see him priced above Jordan Spieth? In this range I am liking the options and find Patrick Cantlay as a really interesting player this week. Does the high ownership stay or do the enticing names priced similarly drive ownership away? If we see the latter play out I will likely be all over guys like Cantlay and Woodland as the public flocks to Fowler and Spieth – we will see as the week progresses.
Hideki Matsuyama – DK: $8000 FD: $11700
While I do not agree with FanDuel having him as the third highest price this week I think it is absurd that DraftKings has Hideki Matsuyama as the 23rd highest salary for the week. This more or less lines up with his outright odds, which I also disagree with and I hope you hoped on the number right away. Hideki is T12 and T33 the last two seasons here and while he has not been his usual self as of late, we know he has it in him to dominate a tournament. Hideki will very likely be a core play for me at this price and very likely a guy I will have on my shortlist for cash games.
Daniel Berger – DK: $7900 FD: $10000
With plenty of people rostering Matsuyama for $100 more I really like Berger as a guy to consider in GPP’s this week. Berger was great last week with a T12 finish. Berger has missed the cut in his last two appearances at this event, but has shown he can play here in the past with a T24 finish in 2015. Although the success has not necessarily been here Berger is a player who can play these long courses well with his length off of the tee and his great long iron play, with likely low ownership I like taking a shot on him here.
J.B Holmes – DK: $7900 FD: $
If you watched this event last year you likely remember J.B. dSrawing quite a bit of criticism for taking what felt like an eternity to end up laying up on the Par 5 18th and ensure he had no real shot at winning for the week. Although we don’t want to pick guys who won’t play to win no one will be upset if they roster J.B and get another top five finish. Holmes has had success at this event over the years and he’s another guy I like in this range.
Jason Kokrak – DK: $7100 FD: $8500
If you end up needing a low $7k salary for the week I think Kokrak is a potential place to look. Showing good form with a solid performance at the Desert Classic, Kokrak has the game to match this course if he is on.
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Cash Game Review
I will end each article going over my cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week
The Team (1-1) Back to .500!
Adam Hadwin – T2
Lucas Glover – T12
Sung-Jae Im –T12
Daniel Berger –T12
Zach Johnson –T28
Joaquin Niemann – MC
While I was unable to get 6/6 through I was comfortably in the money in a week where less than 15% were able to get 5/6 or more through on some strong performances. I have written at length before how I alter my strategy a little bit in these events that do not have a traditional cut. While this team may not look like it, I tend to be much riskier than usual (and the field) when an extra round is guaranteed. When you are only missing 18 holes instead of 36 I am much more likely to play guys that carry a little more risk. This week, that got me on Sung-Jae Im, a player id usually like to see a few more weeks of consistency out of before I play them – as well as on Adam Hadwin, a guy who missed the cut the week prior but has shown a tendency to finish at the top of this leaderboard at the Career Builder after uninspired performances the week prior. Luckily for me this week it payed off, with a traditional cut this week you should expect to see a much more traditional lineup in cash games out of me.
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