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Buyers and Sellers As A Concept
The concept of Buyers and Sellers is simple. Baseline averages tell us a lot. We can use short term numbers as hot/cold indicators as they cross longer term numbers. For example, season long averages and a skater’s last 20 games. If his season fantasy output is 20 points per game, but he is currently producing 23 points per game over his last 20 games, he can be considered running hot. And, if he is only producing 18 points per game, he can be considered running cold.
DFS pricing does not react fast enough. We can use these crossing baselines to indicate whether we should be “buying” or “selling” our skater. See graphic below…
Here we are looking at a crude graphic of a skater’s last 10 games (black) compared to his last 5 games (blue). As the blue line crosses the black line upward, our skater is running hot (green arrow). As he cools off, he will cross below (red arrow). Now, over time, we can visualize whether we should be buying or selling. Since I like looking at L10 games vs L5 games most, let’s look at tonight’s buyers and sellers.
TIP – Not an all-inclusive list most nights, I focus on MY favorite teams for the night. I make hard-lined decisions often on bigger slates. Right or wrong, it’s often how I play. Hockey is volatile, and I will have great nights and poor nights. I can live with that. I don’t need to be in constant pursuit of perfection. We only need to get good at getting close and let the law of averages play out from there. Overthinking DFS is honestly a huge leak in many players’ games when allowed to frustrate them to the point they are no longer playing optimally.
Quick Targets Tonight
Short, 4 game slate tonight with two likely dominant choices in PIT and WPG. However, you will see below they aren’t without question marks. Short slates always make me want to go contrarian, so I’ll be looking at NJ and PHI tonight. Not exclusively, but as opportunities to toss a few fun lineups out there in case the unthinkable happens……which it seems to in hockey more than it should. As a result, I will definitely have a NJ-centric lineup out there in GPP-land somewhere.
Goalie Glance
Highest % Chance at Win (Vegas Odds) – Matt Murray (PIT). I suspect he’s our chalk tonight. However, we don’t just pivot to the NJ goalie if going contrarian. Connor Hellebuck makes some sense, as does Carter Hart and his 91% save percentage in his 12 games. Contrarian goalie is more about which offense you don’t want to target tonight than just stacking against PIT.
January 28th Buyers
Blake Coleman (W – NJD) – $4400 FD/$5700 DK – L10 15.8/L5 17.4 – 2nd line and no power play time will keep the masses at bay, but 3 goals, 2 assists, and 22 SOGBS rank up there with the best of all wingers offering you a slightly contrarian one-off against Murray or a great component to a NJ stack.
Bryan Little (C – WPG) – $5400 FD/$4700 DK – L10 14.4/L5 13.9 – Technically a sell, but not by much. Tonight, if keying on WPG, he brings Draftkings value and 2nd line help on the road (where we love our 2nd liners). Nothing about tonight is going to be perfect on such a short slate.
Jake Guentzel (W – PIT) – $7700 FD/$6400 DK – L10 23.6/L5 29.6 – Lately, a key engine in the top PIT line and likely a high focal point tonight across the industry, Guentz is someone to key on as exposure to Crosby while not quite paying for Crosby. 6 goals in his L5 games keep fantasy points high if the production continues.
Sean Coutrier (C – PHI) – $6500 FD/$5200 DK – L10 19.9/L5 27.6 – Perhaps our biggest buy right now on the slate. 4 goals, 5 assists and 18 SOGBS suggest high production right now with Couts. Great as a one off even in cash scenarios, but potentially lethal paired with the right stacking partners in gpp lineups tonight.
James van Riemsdyk (W – PHI) – $6000 FD/$4900 DK – L10 15.7/L5 23.9 – Another hot hand to easily stack with Coutrier in Philly. 6 goals in the L5 games can wreck havoc alongside Coutrier’s 4 goals. WPG can be suspect to giving goals, so this is one line I’d not fear stacking up.
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January 28th Sellers
Sidney Crosby (C – PIT) – $8800 FD/$7300 DK – L10 18.6/L5 14.7 – Never easy to call Sid the Kid a sell candidate, but fact is, players fluctuate across a season and timing them makes good players great. On a short slate, I have no issues running him out anyway, but I’m not adhering to the point of this article by leaving him off the list when he’s currently overpriced for recent production….or lack thereof.
Jacob Trouba (D – WPG) – $4800 FD/$5100 DK – L10 15.8/L5 9.0 – Again, on a short slate, I’m not completely opposed to running a big part of power plays out there at decent prices. However, you’d like to see more production than just 9 FD points per last five games here.
Kris Letang (D – PIT) – $6900 FD/$6100 DK – L10 16.5/L5 11.7 – Very high prices for dropping production. Easy sell currently.
There are many more on this list once you see how to spot them. I encourage you to roll through your source, or our Research Station, to find them and write them down. Make a player pool tonight, focus on some stacking of players, and choose your contests. For more advice, join our coaching chats, and we’ll help you shape your game, too. Or, click our Coaching Notes Page for a more complete list of players to watch.
Final Recommendation
You are going to find volatility in this sport, no matter the method you use to select players. Short slates allow us to really stack skaters up, and that increases volatility. However, it also allows us to spot heavy chalk and get away from it to leverage the field in tourneys. Today offers decent opportunities at both here on this early slate. Take your stand and go for something. Leave your comfort zone and grow as a player!
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