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DFS Golf: Chalk Donkey – Waste Management Phoenix Open – Draftkings and Fanduel DFS PGA Advice

DFS Golf: Chalk Donkey – Waste Management Phoenix Open

The tour heads to TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open and The Greatest Show on grass!

My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!

The Farmers’ Insurance Open turned out to be a very nice week for those of us here at DFS Army. Justin Rose took home the crown in a truly impressive performance at a course that has held US Opens, and will do so again in 2021. Strangely enough almost all of his wins on the PGA tour have come at courses that have held US Opens at some point (or were a US Open themselves). Rose’s performance was an all around stunning performance, but this Bonobos deal has him dressing like a 55 year old retired Dentist. Rose was our top pivot in the above 9K Range in last week’s Chalk Donkey article and here is what I wrote up for our DFS Army VIPs

Seriously, any time you can get the number one player in the world at reduced ownership, I’ve just made it a rule to do it. That really can apply to any of the top 5. Players are there for a reason, if they are underowned, you need to take advantage of that EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.

Rose had himself a great week, and Adam Scott showed up out of nowhere with a new putting grip that helped him roll in some points. It was really his iron play though that put him in a top position, he was 3rd in SG: Approach for the week. While the putter was good, and he gained strokes in all three of his measured rounds, it let him down with a few short misses on Sunday that could have been the difference in Solo 2nd and a win.

The Beat the Bookie PGA Card that I post weekly had its first big win of the year with a Hideki Matsuyama T5 at +1100, which was a nice chunk of change to cover all the other bets. Hideki was severely underpriced at 66-1 and if a few putts would have gone his way on Saturday we could have had a real big sweat Sunday afternoon.

We almost snagged an Adam Svensson T20, and before Spieth’s meltdown he was sitting T5. Golfs a game of inches, and so is golf betting, but as my grandpa says,  “Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”

This week the tour heads to the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the famous Par 3 16th that turns into what some call ‘The Coliseum” with the stands all the way around the hole and the fans going nuts! It should be a fun week, let’s get to the course breakdown!

Earlier this season, DFSArmy VIP took down 10K in the Driving Range on DK using our research station and articles at DFSArmy! This could be you!

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Course Breakdown:

The Waste Management Phoenix Open has been held at TPC Scottsdale in since 1987 and it has been aptly nicknamed “The Greatest Show on Grass” because of its relaxed standards for fans, often encouraging them to make noise and cheer for players. Some players thrive in this atmosphere and some don’t, but it’s not always who you think. Hideki Matsuyama is one who comes to mind as a player who on the outside really doesn’t give you much, but for whatever reason, turns his game up a notch in this atmosphere and even cracks a smile!

The course is a par 71, coming in at 7266 yards.  It is a par 35 on the front and par 36 on the back and played a little over half a stroke under par last year. With two of the three par 5’s on the back 9, it played a little easier than the front, but only by a half a stroke. Last year’s winner, Gary Woodland, shot a whopping -18, which is actually pretty in line with the other winning scores, the only outlier being Phil Mickelson’s ridiculous -28 in 2013.

The greens are overseeded Bermuda and typically run fairly fast, around 12 on the stimp. As a whole this course is very gettable, with easy to hit fairways and greens, the trick is getting the ball in position on the green to give you a look at birdie and an easy read. The one thing players have complained about here over the years are difficult to read greens.

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Players with strong wedge games are at an advantage here and so are guys who hit it far. The bombers are able to get the ball deep down the fairways and have a wedge in when others may have a 9 iron. The rough isn’t so penal that you can’t get it close, which is another benefit to the bombers. If they hit it hard and it goes a bit off track they are still in good shape.

The one tricky thing with this course is how different it will play from the AM to the PM, or even during a round. When there is moisture int he air in the AM, the ball won’t run out nearly as far as it will in the afternoon when it’s dry. The difference can be as big as a Driver/6 Iron to the green in the AM, to 3 Wood, PW in the afternoon. Because of this, the field is actually only 132 players as they tee off a little later due to the frost in the ground.  Everyone has to play one round in the AM and one in the PM, but it’s possible we might see a slight advantage if there is any sort of weather forecast for Thursday/Friday.

Note, with only 132 players in the field, and top 70 and ties making the cut, getting 6/6 through the cut line will be essential.

There will be tons of narratives to sort through this week. Many players are from the area and even members. Some have great course history or recent form. The weather might spin up a tee time advantage or a million other things. While I love a good narrative as much as the next guy, and I ALWAYS roster a player in MLB on his Bobblehead Night. It’s important to not read too much into them. There is always some sort of edge but don’t go overboard chasing it, its typically a -EV move. One of my favorite things to do in DFS golf is to play the exact other side of the narrative in GPP’s. Everyone is chasing AM/PM tee times? Load me up with PM/AM. More often than not these narratives don’t pan out, and you can leverage the lower owned players that are still in great spots just weren’t in the ‘right’ draw.

One thing, that puts the DFS Army VIP’s at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. Check out how that works here!

–>Domination Station PGA Tutorial <–

What is a Chalk Donkey?

First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’.  Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)

Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.

9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.

8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.

Below 7.5K: >10%  Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.

One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them. 

Key Stats this Week:

In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?

Value Tab: 

The first thing I look at every week when I open up the  RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.

Another top-heavy range this week with all the players here being 20-1 or better in odds. Rickie Fowler leads the way and its no surprise as he has absolutely crushed this course over the years, having not finished lower than 11th in his last three trips here. A disappointing 66th for Rick last week, but he hopefully shook the rust off and is ready to roll this week. Will likely be one of the highest owned players on the slate given the deep discount you get on him.

Webb Simpson tees it up for the first time in 2018 here, and while you typically think of this course as a bombers paradise, Webb has had a ton of success here. The MC last year was a blip after years of crushing the WMPO, finishing 2nd, 4th, 10th, and 18th in his four trips prior to that.

Maybe my favorite play on the slate is Justin Thomas. as I think he goes overlooked sandwiched between the two likely highest owned players on the slate in Jon Rahm and Hideki Matsuyama. JT is a stud, and if he is anything less than 20% owned this week its a crime. He’s got a pair of 17th place finishes here, that sandwich two missed cuts. The number 4 ranked player in the world is going to be underowned…you know what to do.

While this course feels like it should have Tony Finau‘s name written all over it, but for whatever reason, he hasn’t found a ton of success here. He’s got three MC’s in a row here and will likely only find his way into my rosters if his ownership looks to be super low.

Hideki Matsuyama sees a massive price spike this week coming off a solid performance at Torrey Pines and returning to a course he has won twice at. Last year’s WD crushed a lot of people (myself included) but I would expect him to contend here again, the question is whether you want to eat the chalk with him or not.

SG: Off the Tee (Last 20):

As stated earlier, being able to grip it and rip over the bunkers here and put yourself in position to score is important. SG: Off the Tee combines both driving accuracy and distance and measures a players score against a baseline from whatever distance they are from the pin after their tee shot. It’s a great measurement to use to identify players that should have success on a course like TPC Scottsdale.

 

No surprise that we get a couple of bombers at the top here with Cameron Champ and Luke List. I love Champ this week in what should be a great course fit for him. I’ve already bet him, and I think that he will come in underowned in DFS because of his mediocre results the last few weeks. Champ is a newbie here, but List has played here a couple times and struggled a bit, compiling three missed cuts before a 17th place finish last year.

Honest Abraham Ancer gets a big time price drop and makes an interesting GPP play. His SG: OTT is solid here and if he checks out in some other areas, he could be a great play at low ownership. I’ve fallent into the Jhonattan Vegas trap before and his current form is pretty trash, as well as not having played here in three years. I’ll roster him at the RBC Canadian Open and until then I’ll let him burn me if he goes.

Sungjae Im is the real interesting play down here. As you know, I’m all in on SUNGJAESZN, and would have rostered him regardless, but this off the tee game, especially for a guy who isn’t super long, is intriguing. What’s most intriguing is the jump over his last ten. He is really striking the ball well. The concern is that this becomes a birdie fest and he can’t really keep up, either way though at his price and low expected ownership, I love him this week.

Projected DK Score:

Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score)is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.

It should be noted, that this statistic has had the winner in the top 5, the last two weeks with Phil Mickelson and Justin Rose. (So maybe just hit these guys for outrights!).

As I stated above, I love Justin Thomas this week and he’s a core play for me up top, especially given his expected lower ownership.

Joaquin Niemann is super interesting as a player who everyone is going to be off after he’s had a few mediocre weeks. We’re really not all that removed from a 10th place finish at the Shriners, and a time when he was consistently priced in the mid to upper 8k’s. Niemann has a great game, and this is a good course fit for him where he doesn’t necessarily need to drive it extremely accurately.

Gary Woodland was last years winner and a great cash game play. He had a great Sunday at Torrey Pines and should be riding some of that momentum. I like him in cash games, he will be higly owned, but don’t just fade the chalk to fade the chalk, differentiate elsewhere!

Killa Keith Mitchell killed a LOT of lineups last week and I’m going right back to the well here, especially on Fanduel at his near min price. Keith was 16th at the Sony Open and this is a perfect track for him. I also love that he’s embracing the atmosphere at this event.

Birdie or Better Gained:

Birdie or Better gained is the average number of birdies a golfer gains or loses to the field average per event. (adjusted for those who miss the cut and only play 2 rds). This is an important stat this week and I included ten guys in here to give you a look at A) How big the gap is even among the top ten B) A good look at all the top performers

Who shows up but Justin Thomas again, and he’s almost .75 better than Phil Mickelson and over 2 better than Hideki Matsuyama in 10th. Slam freaking Dunk. The usual suspects are here as well like Finau, Rahm, and Woodland, but really this just screams at me to play more and more JT. 

One thing, that puts the DFS Army VIP’s at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. Check out how that works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial

Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?

In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.

It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event (though only 134 this week, making it more important to get 6/6) and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.

And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:

Above 9K Chalk

Hideki Matsuyama: DK $10,700/FD $11,800

Projected GPP ownership: 26%-29%

Of course, we’re going to get chalk Hideki Matsuyama this week, the guy has won 2 of his 3 last three trips here (the one he didn’t was a WD with a wrist injury). He could have got dead last at the Farmers Insurance Open and still been over 20% owned.

Instead, Deki played some of the best golf we’ve seen from him in a while, finishing T3 and if he had played a little better on Saturday would have had a real shot to win. That performance jacked up his price all the way up to $10,700 on DK which is $2,700 more than last week, an insane jump, and actually creates a bit of a pricing/ownership bubble that we can take advantage of if we don’t play him.

Oh, I also forgot that not only has he won 2 of his last three trips here. if we go back a bit further he has finished 2nd and 4th…the 4th being his worst performance here…ever.

If you look at Deki’s strokes gained stats, he just consistently gets it done with his irons, and it’s actually been improving over the last few rounds going back to last fall. He had a bit of a rough start to last year after the wrist injury but since then has just been absolutely lights out.

The one concern I’d have if I didn’t look at his past results here is that he doesn’t really gain enough strokes off the tee, but that clearly hasn’t been an issue. The issue for Hideki is on and around the greens. He should be able to hit enough Greens in Regulation here that his chipping game isn’t an issue (though I watched him just absolutely stick a ball from the off the green last week). The putting though is consistently a problem, and it was again last weekend likely holding him back from a potential win. He just doesn’t seem to be able to read putts very well and short ones are always an issue, his stroke isn’t very fluid and he jabs at it, causing it to get off line quickly here.

It hasn’t been a problem here, but if any part of his approach game is off just a smidge, he could be in for a difficult week.

I’m not advocating a full Hideki fade, though I understand it. If you are fading him it has to be on price/ownership, because he really checks all the other boxes. I’ll have around market share of him, maybe a little less when it’s all said and done.

Above 9K Pivot: 

Justin Thomas: DK $11,000/FD $12,100

Projected GPP Ownership: 10%-13% 

This is the same situation as last week, where we can get one of the top-ranked players at reduced ownership. YES PLEASE. The Hideki chalk has created a little bubble in pricing at the top of the salary range. You can’t get Hideki and JT or Rahm in a lineup and feel comfortable about it, so people are forced to choose and it appears that they are going to bank course history and recent form, and that lowers the ownership of JT and Rahm. I think JT is the beneficiary of this the most as Rahm played pretty well last week and I see him coming in at around 17ish % while JT could be as low as 10% in some contests.

Not only is JT going to be low owned, I really think he’s the best play of anyone this week.

The Driving Distance, Birdies Gained, Avg. FP Gained is all insane. He blows away the field in Birdie or better gained and Average Fantasy Points gained. What I really am focused on is the Field Rank Splits.

JT finishes in the top 50% of a field….95% of the time.

JT finishes in the top 25% of the field….86% of the time.

JT finishes in the top 10% of the field… 52% of the time.

So he crushes all the stats were looking for and finishes in the top 10% of the field more than 50% of the time? Why is he going to be around 10% owned?!

Because DFS Golf is all about recency bias and course history. JT hasn’t played since the Sony where he finished a solid 16th and was 3rd at the Tournament of Champions the week before that. People haven’t seen him on TV in a few weeks and that drives down ownership like crazy. He also has mediocre course history here with a couple of missed cuts. Forget all that. He’s in a great spot and is, in my opinion, the best play in the field. Load up on JT and watch him pay you back this weekend!

Other highly owned players (over 15%): Rickie Fowler, Phil Mickelson, Tony Finau, Matt Kuchar, Jon Rahm. 

7.5K – 9K Chalk

Byeong Hun An: DK $8600/ $9200 

Projected GPP Ownership: 16%-20%

I’m not sure why everyone has to love Ben An like me. I think he could maybe end up a little lower than this projection actually as his price isn’t great for roster construction. DK is begging you to play Stars and Scrubs this week so I think the most popular pairing will be Deki and Rickie Fowler and that makes you go down to the 7K’s for the rest of your lineup unless you play one of my favorite low priced pivots which we will get to later on.

An hasn’t played in the US in a while, but had a 12th place finish last week in Dubai. He does a lot of things really well, except for putting. I don’t know what it is about these golfers I love that can’t putt. It’s so frustrating to watch. I will say he’s been a bit improved recently over on the European tour.

An can make birdies with the best of them and go low when needed, which I like here. I just think he makes a really solid play in this field and there are 5-6 golfers priced above him that I would take him over every day of the week.

I’m going to take the value here with An and eat the chalk (if he ends up being it).

7.5K – 9K Pivot:

Adam Hadwin: DK  $9000/FD $10,600

Projected GPP Ownership: 6%-9%

At the Desert Classic, Hadwin was massively owned, and a 25-1 favorite to win the event. He paid everyone off with a T3 finish. He didn’t play last week, and now everyone has forgotten about him again! Seriously, Hadwin can play and he has two top 20 finishes in his last three rips here.

Hadwin crushes it off the tee, and when his putter gets hot, he can win a tournament with that alone. The approach game is mediocre, but he still finds ways to get it done.

Hadwin is a great West Coast player and his Adjusted Field Rank for Par 71’s is second in the field behind Phil Mickelson. He’s extremely consistent with an 83% top 50% rate. Those are the type of stats that you want to target for a guy who while he could contend, won’t kill you if he doesn’t.

I love Hadwin this week and will likely pair him with a chalky Hideki Matsuyama to differentiate myself.

Other highly owned players in GPP (over 15%): Martin Laird, Keegan Bradley, Bubba Watson

Check out my Preview Article for my full betting card!

–> UpNorth’s PGA Preview – Waste Management Phoenix Open <–

Below 7.5K

Well lookie here…we actually have some chalk right at 7.5k and below this week!

Talor Gooch: DK $7500/$8700

Projected GPP Ownership: 15%-18%

Talor Gooch has been a stud the last two weeks with back to back top 5 finishes. He’s seen is OWGR jump from 337 at the end of the year to 153rd now.

Gooch’s play has been inspired the last two weeks, but at some point, he’s going to revert to the norm for him, which last year included 14 missed cuts in 27 events and no top tens.

If we look at his last 50 rounds, we get a little bit of a better idea of what sort of player Gooch is. His approach stats are likely going to come back down at some point, and that combined with his poor off the tee game, spell trouble for him. The putter will likely come back to earth as well.

Everything here screams regression and while everyone and their mother is jumping on Goochie Mane this week, I’m full fading. If he beats me so be it, but I’ll take the odds that a guy who didn’t even make half the cuts on tour his first year doesn’t get another top 5 this week.

Below 7.5K Pivot 

Steve Stricker: DK $6500/FD $9000

Projected GPP Ownership: 3%-5%

Ok hear me out here… in this decade Stricker has made 148 of 159 cuts… 148 of 159!!!! (Thanks Taco for that stat!)

That’s ridiculous. Yes he’s likely rusty having not played since the Sony Open where he made the cut finished T73 and was a MDF…but 148 of 159! He was 31st here last year and 42 the year prior.

At $6500 all he needs to do is make the cut and he smashes value..and he’s been kind of good at that the last few years…

Other highly owned players in GPP (over 12%): Brendan Steele, Lucas Glover, Joel Dahmen, Trey Mullinax 

GPP Core:

Here are the core players that I will be using to make my GPP teams this week. Obviously, they won’t be the only players I use but it can give you an idea of who I’m on.

Jon Rahm

Justin Thomas 

Gary Woodland 

Rickie Fowler

Adam Hadwin 

Byeong Hun-An 

Cameron Champ 

Austin Cook – Has Baby Swag… could be a positive or negative.

Luke List 

Keegan Bradley 

Abraham Ancer 

Martin Laird 

Sungjae Im

Brendan Steele

Joaquin Niemann

Trey Mullinax 

Steve Stricker 

Final Thoughts: 

I love this tournament, I know I said I loved last week, but this one is a ton of fun, especially to watch. Play the ownership game a bit, but don’t just fade the chalk to fade the chalk!

One thing you shouldn’t do this week is chase guys like Matthew Wolff. While I think he will be a great tour pro someday, chasing guys in their first event is usually fools gold and a -EV move. DFS twitter went nuts on him earlier this week and got him bet down on some sports books from 700-1 to win all the way to 125-1….thats insane. Stay Away. I also am not chasing Joel Dahmen here. everyone is going to be on him at that price and if you want him in cash sure go for it, but while he was good last week it was mostly his putter with the rest of his game being pretty poor. If that continues and his putter reverts back to the norm he will struggle to make the cut.

As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in my coaching channel and make sure to join in and ask any questions. This is going to be a great week and I can’t wait to see some of those green screens and winning lineups!

Join us in our coaching channels this week and let’s win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s!

Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!