BigMarley’s Tiers Breakdown – DraftKings
Last year I won a trip out to the Live Final for DraftKings to compete in the PickEm’ (Tiers) Championship. I won my ticket to that with a $2 entry and I ended up winning $5,000 at the Live Final. This year, I am going to share all my Tiers secrets with the DFS ARMY members and hopefully, some of you guys can get an awesome experience like that this year.
The first thing I want to say about Tiers is that you don’t necessarily want to make a lineup going for the most points you can score. Instead, think of what the popular plays will be and try to be different by still making good picks. With Tiers, there is no salary, so people flock to the “best” plays. That makes it easier to know which players will be chalky. If you look at projections for each tier, the highest projected player will usually be the most owned guy in that tier. However, they don’t always score the most. Fading the chalk players is the way to go in GPPs and this format makes it easier for you to figure out who those chalk players will be.
With that said, let’s dig into this Playoff round 1 Tiers slate:
T1- I have no issues with anyone from this tier so I think you should go with the guy you like the most. I think Deshaun Watson will be the highest owned, followed by Andrew Luck. That game has the highest total on the board, so I think people will be drawn to it for that reason. However, team totals for all these QBs are very close and the highest team total (Texans 24.5) is only 2 points higher than the lowest team total (Ravens 22.25). On the main slate I will be highest exposed to Luck from this group, so I will say he is my favorite, but I might hedge and play Mitch Trubisky or Lamar Jackson instead on Tiers because I expect them to be lower owned and their projections are close. I am going to fade the Watson chalk for this tier though with my own personal lineups. No issues if you want to go all-in on him though.
T2- The Cowboys have the highest team total (22.75) of these QBs and the Eagles have the lowest (17.25). With Dak Prescott being the only home QB of this group, and going against the 29th ranked passing defense, I like him most of the group and this is probably an all-in spot for me with him. The DS likes Russell Wilson the most though and it has him projected for almost 3 more points than the next highest guy. Those two have the easiest matchups of this group and they are the only two I would even consider in my own lineups. If I stick to just a solo lineup for the single-entry contests, then I will stick with Dak as my guy. Wilson does have the higher floor though so if I end up playing cash games then he would be my pick.
T3- I think Ezekiel Elliott is the best play in this tier and he should be the highest owned as well. I think we need to either go all-in on Zeke or fade him completely. The DS actually has DeAndre Hopkins projected for 5.5 more points than Zeke though so if you want to trust that and make him your guy I think that is a fine move. Those are the clear best two plays from this tier though because T.Y. Hilton is banged up and has been dealing with an ankle injury for weeks. That, plus his red Q tag, should keep him low owned in this tier and I think in big tournaments he is in play, especially if you used Luck in T1. TY has killed the Texans in the past and he scored a combined 50.4 DK points in their two games this season. Not sure what I will do yet with this tier, but since I am fading the Watson chalk I will likely fade the Hopkins play as well, so it is between Zeke and TY for me.
T4- I think with no salaries, Melvin Gordon III makes sense here, especially for cash games. I am likely going to fade him on the main slate, so I might get some hedge action here and go with MG3 as my guy. I really don’t like targeting against this Ravens D though, so if you want to avoid that matchup then just fade MG3 and Keenan Allen. Chris Carson should get 20+ touches and he has gone over 100 yards in 3 straight games, so he is a solid option if you want as well, but I think the Cowboys win that game and if they are in the lead then Carson won’t be as big a part in the offense. With me playing Dak in T2 I like pairing him with Amari Cooper in this tier if I am not going with MG3. So, those are the two guys I will be deciding between for my lineups. We have seen the ceiling Amari has with these Cowboys with a game over 40-points and a game over 50-points. I think he is a great GPP play for this tier, especially if you used Dak in T2.
T5- This is the hardest tier on the slate and I will have exposure to all these guys on the main slate. I have no idea how I am going to attack this tier yet, so this is where I am going to reference the Domination Station for this week. If you have a personal preference, then I would just roll with your gut, but here is what the DS is projecting:
T6- The top 3 plays in this tier are the best 3, and the only ones I think we should be looking at here. I think Eric Ebron has the highest floor going against the 31st ranked defense against opposing TEs, and with TY being banged up he should be a big part of this passing offense. He is also a huge red zone threat for the Colts and has multiple TD upside. Tyler Lockett has the highest ceiling in this tier and he is a deep threat play at any time. He has also been consistent all season long and has only scored under 10-points twice. I think he is also a great run it back player with me stacking Dak/Zeke or Cooper in previous tiers. The other guy I am interested in is Lamar Miller. Since I am fading the Watson/Hopkins pairing in tiers this week I think Miller makes a lot of sense for my builds and if he rushes for 2 TDs then I should have a ton of Watson and/or Hopkins lineups beat. Not sure if that is where I will go or not with a solo lineup, but if I am multi entering then I will be mixing those 3 guys into my lineups.
T7- The two guys I am interested in for this tier are Gus Edwards and Nelson Agholor. I am thinking the Ravens try to hold the ball as long as possible and keep Rivers and the Chargers offense off the field. The way to do that is by feeding Gus. I think this is a low scoring game with the Ravens getting the win and that bodes well for Gus. The DS also has him projected for the highest in this tier. The high ceiling guy from this tier is Agholor. He has the most speed on this tier and he can break a long TD at any point. He is also coming off back to back 20+ point games. I think Gus is the better cash play and has the higher TD equity, but Nelson is a great GPP play and it could only take 1 long play for him to win this tier.
T8- This is an ugly tier and it’s not easy to like anyone from this tier. For me, I will be deciding between Tyrell Williams and Michael Gallup. I think they have the highest ceilings from this tier and they will see the most air yards of the group. If somebody from this group breaks a lot TD, it should be one of those guys. If I am using Dak/Zeke/Cooper in tiers, then I probably won’t get a 4th Cowboy and that will lead me to taking Williams here. If I am only using Dak and one of Zeke or Cooper, then I probably will go with Gallup here and if I am right about Dak being the top play in T2 then a 3-man stack should be beneficial, and low owned. I would say John Brown is up there with those guys as well but I can’t trust Jackson to get him the ball so he won’t be in consideration for me.
Good luck to everyone in the DFS ARMY for round 1 of the playoffs! I hope to see some more huge winning screenshots this week and if I don’t win the big Tiers GPP, I hope one of you do.
If you have any questions you can hit me up in my Slack channel at #Big-Marley-NFL-MMA