BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 1 Location – Brooklyn, New York
Thanks for purchasing my UFC on ESPN 1 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card to start off the new deal with ESPN. We have a champ vs champ fight for the first main even of the year and I am excited for it. On DraftKings, the contests aren’t great, but there is still a lot of money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $15,000 to 1st place. Those big prize contests are always my favorite contests to chase so I will be taking my usual 20 or so shots at that $15k. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, lets break down these UFC on ESPN fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Kyle Stewart $8,700 vs Chance Rencountre $7,500
Kyle Stewart
Age: 29
Height: 6”0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Arizona Combat Club
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 115
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -165
Kyle Stewart is the 3rd opponent in 2 weeks for Chance Rencountre & he’s taking this fight on less than two weeks’ notice. He has been on the cusp of making the UFC for a while now, & I feel he is ready for this moment. He had a fight scheduled for early February in LFA, so he should be in good shape. Kyle Stewart is well rounded with power in his hands. He has a nice straight right hand, and a good one two. He keeps heavy pressure on opponents & likes to walk them down, close the distance, and let his hands go. He will throw heavy hook combinations to the head in close range, & mix in uppercuts. He can drop or finish the fight with either hand, but his right hand especially. He is going to have the power advantage over Rencountre & I imagine Rencountre will be trying to grapple here. He keeps a long stance & has a long reach, so it helps him in striking, but gives away the single leg & leg kicks a bit. He doesn’t throw kicks much, but he has heavy rear leg body kicks & head kicks. He has 4 KO/TKOs & has a great chin never being finished with strikes.
He is a solid grappler & strong for the division. He has good double leg & body lock takedowns. On top he has good ground & pound. He does a good job of getting to mount & raining down shots. He doesn’t look for takedowns much & more often gets on top via defending takedowns himself. He has a good sprawl and will dig double under hooks & then snap opponents down to attack with front chokes. He also will throw Travis Browne type elbows to the head on double leg attempts & has finished an opponent with that. He can be taken down with single legs. He does a decent job of limp legging out of singles sometimes, but if opponents can chain wrestle they can take him down. He is explosive & is hard to control on the ground. He will attack with kimuras from half guard & does a good job of standing up against the cage. He was taken down & mauled by James Nakashima for the LFA title, but now he trains with him & says he has improved tenfold with his grappling since then. He was very tough didn’t give up any positions without fighting & was controlled a lot but continually got up, and when he got up attacked immediately. He needs to be a bit less aggressive this fight & not run into range for takedowns, but his cardio is top notch. He is going to be the bigger fighter & from the James Lynch interview I heard is going to be hyped and go for the knock out.
Chance Rencountre
Age: 32
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: Oklahoma
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 124
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +145
Chance Rencountre lost his UFC debut to Belal Muhammad and will be looking to get his first UFC win in this matchup. Rencountre has moved to California and has been training full time at Alliance MMA since October. He is a former college wrestler, and a fairly athletic fighter. He is light on his feet but has a hands down style & is very hittable. He has a great chin, and really relies heavily on absorbing punishment to implement his style. He has a decent jab and straight right hand. He uses a lot of fakes & feints and likes to take single legs into uppercuts. He will end combinations with leg kicks but can get clipped when throwing them. He also likes to throw front kicks to the legs & body. He will throw the straight right hand as a lead, both high and to the body. He has a great chin and is willing to eat shots and to give them, while staying in the pocket. Rencountre has 6 KO/TKOs & has never been finished. He has a loss to Nakashima as well, so Stewart will have someone who has beaten Rencountre in his short time he has to prepare.
Rencountre is a former college wrestler, and I assume will use a heavy wrestling game plan for this fight. Rencountre, likes to use punches to set up singles & doubles, and gets most of his takedowns through shots in the center of the cage. He can struggle to get close enough to shoot inside and becomes much less effective when forced to move backwards. He doesn’t look to engage in the clinch much and will only grab double under hooks if he gets hurt on the feet. He is long & does a good job of snapping down opponents & attacking with front chokes such as Darce’s & Anacondas. He stands tall, and it allows fighters to get in on his legs & land reactive shots. He has good sprawl, and if he gets taken down does a great job of scrambling back up. He has great cardio and is a warrior who will continue to push until the final bell. He has gone all in for this camp, he has moved him & his family to California, leaving a well-paying job, and being forced to take a job at a restaurant. All that sacrifice was for the opportunity to improve by training full time at Alliance MMA and go on a UFC run. Rencountre has 2 submissions & finished 8 of 11 wins. Rencountre is 4-3 in decisions. Rencountre needs to come out fast, put a pace on Stewart & pressure from the offset. The major thing Rencountre needs in this fight are takedowns. If he can close the distance, land some shots, force Stewart to worry about the punches & then duck under and get takedowns he can win this fight.
From what I have seen, I think Stewart is the better overall fighter and the more dangerous guy. I think Stewart is going to be the better striker and the one that is more likely to finish the fight on the feet or the ground. The short notice does worry me a bit, but since he already had another fight coming up I would think he should be in good shape and won’t gas out within 15-minutes. However, if he is getting out wrestled early in this fight, that won’t help his cardio situation at all. That is Rencountre’s path to victory here and if he can get takedowns and hold top control then I think he can definitely win the fight that way, especially if he can tire Stewart out by making him constantly work to get back to his feet. I just don’t think he is good enough to hold down a guy like Stewart for long enough to win rounds and I think Stewart will get back to his feet even if he is taken down multiple times. I also think Stewart gets the better of him on the feet and can even land takedowns or reversals of his own. That makes me lean towards Stewart to get the win and with him being more likely to finish IMO then I would say he has the higher ceiling as well.
On DraftKings, I like to target the first fight of the night on most cards because we get the lower-level fighters here and they are the ones more likely to make mistakes. They are also less known, so they tend to go under owned on DraftKings. If we can get the fighter who capitalizes on that mistake in our lineup then starting off the card with a low owned ~100-point win is always a good feeling. For that reason, I will be rostering both guys from this fight, but Kyle Stewart is my preferred play of the two. I want some Rencountre as well because if he does win this fight then it is likely from a grappling heavy game plan and that is what scores well on DK. This is a fight I will likely get in maybe 40% of my lineups and I will probably lean towards 25/15 in favor of Stewart. The line movement has been shifting towards Rencountre’s favor, so I expect that to take away from Stewart’s ownership and I could see us getting him at ~12% ownership. I like being overweight to the field in these situations and that is what I will plan to do here with Stewart. I wouldn’t touch this fight in cash games though, so GPP only for me, but a fight I do like overall.
Winner – Kyle Stewart via Unanimous Decision
Geoff Neal $8,500 vs Belal Muhammad $7,700
Geoff Neal
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 36
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -170
Geoff Neal is a super impressive prospect, who put on a scintillating performance in his last match. He dominated a tough Frank Camacho, and with another impressive finish, he could vault himself into a top 10 matchup. He is a phenomenal athlete and going to have a big power advantage in this fight. He’s won 4 consecutive fights via finish and will be looking to make it 5 here. Neal seamlessly switches stances and has a nasty straight left & right hand. He has a nasty jab and will double & triple up on it. He has great distance control, along with the ability to slide in & out of range. He will swarm with one twos when he has opponents hurt, but still keeps his composure & won’t brawl. Opponents seem very surprised at how far out he can hit them, and he has phenomenal extension on his punches. His punches come so fast & clean that fighters don’t see them coming. He had a nasty head kick knockout in his last match, and flashed superstar potential. I feel as long as he stays composed and controls the distance he will have an advantage on the feet, even against a great striker like Muhammad. Neal has 6 KO/TKOs and has been finished once by strikes against MW Kevin Holland. I also feel that stoppage was a bit premature.
Neal isn’t much of a grappler, but he is improving with his takedown defense, and is very hard to hold down. He is super explosive, and when opponents get him down he bounces right back to his feet. He is strong in the clinch and will get a double under hook position and land hard knees. He also has nasty elbows. He does a great job of disengaging the clinch when fighters put his back against the cage and returning to the center. He has good takedown defense, but fighters have been able to get in on single legs against him. He did a great job of defending all the take downs of Camacho, but he was taken down on his DWCS fight against Chase Waldon. He was also able to get a no hook rear naked choke in his first UFC fight against Brian Camozzi, and I feel if he gets top position he will be very heavy and have strong ground & pound. He needs to stay off his back, off the cage in this fight and keep it standing. I doubt he will get in top position unless he gets on top after dropping his opponent. He has been submitted one time in his 3rd UFC fight. He has two submissions himself. He has great cardio and can go for all three rounds easily. Neal needs to stay composed, control the distance, and walk down Belal. I feel that his hand speed and reach advantage will give him an advantage if they strike in the pocket in front of each other. I also feel that head kick could play a factor against Muhammad as well. This is a sizeable step up and if he can win easily here he will prove he is the real deal.
Belal Muhammad
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 108
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +150
Muhammad is on a 4-fight win streak and has been looking better & better with every outing. He is a very intelligent fighter with great hands. He has a great jab and does a great job of attacking with his lead hand. He will use a lead left hook and likes to throw a jab left hook combination. He has a nice one-two and a good over hand right. He has very fast hand speed and does a great job of landing short shots in between opponent’s combinations. He has a nasty overhand right to a right uppercut combination. He has great parrying, hand fighting, and in the pocket will throw nasty combinations. He will use his jab to set up his right hand and right hook and will throw 8-10 punch combinations keeping super heavy pressure & volume on opponents. He has a great job of sliding out of the way of shots & countering with jabs & straight right hands. He has a good inside leg kick & decent body kicks. He will throw spinning back fists, and even spinning kicks. He doesn’t have big power, and only has 4 career TKOs. He has a very strong chin, and opponents will have to put him out cold to stop him. He has good recoverability and can tie opponents up on the ground when they go for the finish. His cardio allows him to fully recover & start to put the pressure back on quickly. He has been KO’d only one time in his career.
Muhammad is a strong grappler, and I expect him to utilize that in this match. He does a great job of using feints & punches to set up double legs. He has strong drive if he can’t get the takedown & will still push opponents to the cage, and grind in the clinch. He has good knees to the body and will exit with spinning elbows. He does a good job of transitioning from a single to a double getting his hands locked & dumping opponents. He isn’t an amazing wrestler, and fighters with good takedown defense have stuffed his attempts. On top he has solid control & good elbows. He also has good back takes. I don’t expect him to be put on his back, but he has an active guard, and will work to get back to his feet quickly. He has good arm bars & leg locks. He isn’t a submission threat with none in his career. He has never been submitted himself. Muhammad needs to keep the pressure and stay in Neal’s face. He needs to use his punches to create grappling situations and try to wear on Neal. He can’t allow Neal to dictate the range & push him back. He needs to push Neal, keep heavy volume & pressure and remain defensively sound.
This is a solid fight and I am looking forward to watching it. I don’t think it will be a fight I target heavily, but I think I will likely have a lineup or 2 with both guys. On the feet, I think Neal is the better striker and much more likely to finish. With Belal having 0 submissions on his record, I think Neal is more likely to finish on the mat as well. However, I think Belal is live in this matchup if he can mix in takedowns and hold top control. I think he can keep the fight close on the feet, but I think he will be the only one going for takedowns here and if he can get them then I think he can steal rounds and win on the judges’ scorecards. He has won his last 4 fights all by decision and he scored 83, 82, 82, 82. So, I think we know what we are going to get from him in a decision win. I’m guessing around ~82-points… In Neal’s two UFC fights he has landed sig strikes at a pace of 7.74 per minute, and he finished both fights. In those two fights he scored 120 and 97 DK points. I think he has one of the higher ceilings with the potential finish, but if Belal can land takedowns and keep this fight close then I don’t see Neal having a high ceiling in a decision win because he won’t be landing 7+ sig strikes per minute if he spends time on his back. That is how I see this fight going. I think Neal has KO potential and I will roster him for that reason, but I see this fight going to a decision and I think it will be somewhat close, maybe 29-28 Neal.
On DraftKings, Neal is my preferred play for his 100+ point potential if he can get a finish. If I was only making 10 lineups then I would probably fade Belal and use Neal in 2 or 3. I don’t see Belal having 100+ point upside, but we can still win with an 82-point decision win from him, so I will have him in 1 or 2 lineups out of my 20. I think guys below him have higher ceilings though, so if you are just making a few lineups then I would fade him unless you have a stronger lean on him getting the win than I do. I do think Neal is worth a shot though and I have been very impressed with his striking. I think he could get a KO in this fight and if it is the 1st round then he could score ~120 points and almost surely be on the optimal lineup. This is just his toughest fight to date and I think a vet like Belal will make this fight dirty and not let Neal work his striking game as much as he is used to.
Winner – Geoff Neal via Split Decision
Te Edwards $8,200 vs Dennis Bermudez $8,000
Te Edwards
Age: 28
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 452
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -125
Te Edwards entered into his UFC debut a big time favorite, and prospect to watch. He was upset, and finished in brutal fashion, and needs a win here to prove the hype around him was warranted. A loss here for either guy does massive harm to their careers, so I’m sure they are going to come out firing. Edwards is an extremely explosive powerful fighter with one punch knock out power. He is very fast, and always has his left hand cocked ready to fire. He holds his hands low & likes to use in & out movement to slide out of the way of shots & counter with straight & overhand lefts. He has nice one twos, and mixes uppercuts in close range. He has decent right hooks. Overall, he is still developing as a striker, and doesn’t throw many attacks. When he throws punches, he leaves his chin high, and doesn’t worry about defense. He has so much faith he is going to land & knock his opponents out he leaves himself open. He was caught clean and dropped early against Madge & later knocked out with a vicious head kick. With that being his first knock out I assume he has drilled a lot of striking defense. He has huge power, and Bermudez has shown chin issues, so all he needs is one clean shot to win the match. He has finished all 6 of his wins via KO/TKO.
Edwards is a former college wrestler. He has good double legs and is explosive with his entries usually being able to finish pretty easily. He also has a decent single leg, but he doesn’t shoot much in MMA because he likes to strike. He seems to be learning the clinch game still. He allows fighters to control him in the clinch against the cage, and he doesn’t do a good job of pummeling or improving position. He does have good trip takedowns from that position, but he needs to improve that facet of his game. His one decision loss he was unable to get his back off the cage or get up when taken down. That was 4 years ago, and I feel he will be hard to hold down. He was able to land a double leg after getting rocked and survived some deep submission attempts but didn’t do much just staying in the guard. He panic wrestles when he gets hurt, and that could be dangerous against a good BJJ guy. He has never been submitted or gotten any submissions. I feel Edwards needs to come out, and boss the fight. He needs to use smart pressure to draw out the strikes & bad shots from Bermudez. If he can counter & land a big shot, he can definitely put Bermudez out.
Dennis Bermudez
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 155 (Debut)
Reach: 66”
Gym: Long Island MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 9-7
Fight Matrix: 37 (FW)
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L4
Betting Odds: +105
Denis Bermudez is most likely in a do or die fight here. With a loss he has a chance of being cut from the company. He has always been very physical for 145, and we will see if it will translate to LW. Bermudez has improved his striking over the years & has a nice jab & leg kick. He is always light on his feet, bouncing in & out of range. He has improved his head movement and does a good job of using it to land his straight & overhand right. He will fake level changes & come over the top with straight rights to the body & head and overhand rights. He has a good straight right hand to left hook combination. He will throw the left-hand lead backing up. He has average body kicks, but he uses them to stay active. He has good cardio & at his best when he is going forward & forcing his opponents to react to him. He lacks power and has struggled to keep heavy strikers off of him in the past when he can’t take them down. He has looked much slower in recent fights in my opinion and is hittable closing the distance & in extended combinations in the pocket. He has 6 career TKOs, and only 1 in his 16 fight UFC career. He has been finished twice in his career via KO/TKO.
Bermudez was a beast wrestler in his prime, but most recently hadn’t had the same success taking & controlling fighters on the ground as he once has. He is still explosive & uses his punches to set up double legs. He lands them rather easily and can get elevation & slam opponents to the mat. He does a good job of getting trips in the clinch, and he is very physical there. I feel clinching up with Edwards, pushing him to the cage, and controlling him there could be an effective game plan for him. He wasn’t able to take down Andre Fili and was actually taken down himself a few times. On top he has good control & strong ground & pound elbows. He can cut opponents up from top position. He does a good job of passing to side control, where he can take the back or getting into a strong position in half guard where he can land ground & pound. Bermudez always comes in shape with great cardio, and the ability to wrestle for 3 rounds. He is going to be undersized for 155, and I feel that he won’t have success against the upper echelon of the division. He isn’t a big submission threat, but he does have 3 career submissions. Submission defense has been the Achilles heel for him along with his chin in his career. He has been submitted 4 times in his career. For Bermudez to be successful in this fight he needs to make it a grappling match. He needs to close the distance safely, get Edwards against the cage, and maul him. I feel Edwards will be strong & explosive early, and pinning him against the cage landing elbows, knees to the body & wearing on him before trying to control him on the ground will be smartest. If he can slow Edwards down a bit and start to take him down & control him on the ground I could see him taking a decision.
Dennis Bermudez hasn’t been an underdog since 2011 in his UFC debut for the TUF Final. Now he is making his debut at 155 lbs and is the underdog to a 0-1 fighter. That just sounds weird, but I think the line is right. I don’t see 155 being a good division for Bermudez and I think this could be the last we see of him if he gets a 5th straight loss. I do think Bermudez is the better overall fighter, and he is much more experienced. I just think the wrestling advantages he had at 145 won’t be there at 155, especially against a wrestler like Te Edwards. I think Edwards is going to bully Dennis here and we have seen Bermudez rocked in multiple fights, so I think with the power Edwards has that he ends up putting him out at some point in this fight. I think Bermudez will be the fighter striking at a higher pace, but I think Edwards is more likely to get the KO and if there are takedowns I think they will be coming from Edwards as well. I think if Bermudez can work his striking and mix in takedowns that he can win this fight, but I would line Edwards closer to -160 with the talents he brings to the table in this matchup.
On DraftKings, Edwards is my preferred play and I think he gets it done by knockout. If he can get a knockout at $8.2k then I think he has a good shot at being on the winning lineup and that makes him one of my favorite targets. I am a bit worried because of how green he is and how bad he looked in his last fight, but at that price I have to be overweight on him since I think he does test that chin of Bermudez. Bermudez is in play as well, but I will be underweight to him and I would rather just move those shares over to Edwards and not split shares on three straight fights to start the card. I don’t like donating to the pot too much by choosing both sides of most fights, so this is a spot where I will probably fade in my 20 lineups. I might throw a few hedge lineups in the $10 after my main 20 entries, but other than that I am going to be heavy on Edwards and fading Bermudez here. I don’t trust Edwards enough to have him in cash as well as overweight in GPPs, so he will be a GPP play on for me.
Winner – Te Edwards via 1st round (T)KO
Cory Sandhagen $9,300 vs Mario Bautista $6,900
Cory Sandhagen
Age: 26
Height: 5’11
Weight: 135
Reach: 71”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -470
Cory Sandhagen is a high-volume striker with solid wrestling skills. Sandhagen averages almost 10 strikes landed per minute, and only absorbs 2.7. He likes to leap into punches, and he can land shots from a long way out. He has a nasty jab, and a strong straight left hand. He is always switching stances and will switch stances mid combination. He likes to throw a jab from southpaw, then change stances & throw a straight right hand. He uses a lot of feints & false starts to try to hide when he is closing the distance. He will dig to the body with hard hooks, as well as hard low leg kicks. He has a nice check left hook and will throw a left hook to the head then to the body combination. He has strong body & head kicks as well and is always throwing volume, keeping the pressure & pace high on opponents. In close range he does a great job of throwing uppercuts & body shots mixing it up & making it hard to know if the shots are coming to the body or head. He didn’t react well IMO to being backed up when he fought Alcántara. He backed up against the cage and allowed Alcántara to land some clean shots before panic wrestling & getting caught in a nasty arm bar. Sandhagen in a letdown spot here after having Lineker pull out, but with 4 consecutive KO/TKO wins he should have a lot of confidence. He has never been finished and has only lost one fight via decision.
Sandhagen is a solid wrestler, and strong in the clinch. He does a good job of backing fighters up to the cage when he gets his combinations going. He will throw nasty knees to the head & body from the Muay Thai clinch. He will throw nice standing elbows in the clinch and does a good job of disengaging with spinning elbows & back fists. He has a good single leg takedown, and doubles against the cage. Against Alcántara he showed incredible resolve on the ground. He had his arm fully extended, in a deep armbar, and refused to tap. He ultimately was able to get out of it and landed some brutal ground & pound before getting the finish in round 2. He was able to stand up in Iuri’s guard and land nasty straight punches. He does a good job of floating and being able to keep his opponent in a wrestling ride type position when they try to belly down & stand up. He finished Alcantara in that position with heavy shots. Sandhagen can go 3 rounds with ease, get hurt & recover, and overall just has phenomenal cardio. Sandhagen should be in great shape here. I feel he has a solid advantage on the feet & ground. I feel the path of least resistance is using his strikes to back Bautista up against the fence and try to find a takedown & finish him on the ground.
Mario Bautista
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 340
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +375
Mario Bautista is taking this fight on less than two weeks’ notice, but from his tape he looks like a solid replacement. He trains out of the MMA Lab & has fought in solid promotions such as LFA. He is 25 years old & should be improving very quickly every time out. Bautista is a long striker, & pretty good at putting combinations together. He has a good jab, and a strong straight right hand. His one two is nice & he will use a left hook to straight right-hand combination as well. He has a solid counter left hook. He has a nice over hand right in the pocket, but he tends to duck his head when he throws it leaving him open for upper cuts. He will dig to the body with hooks & then go up to the head. He is light on his feet & has ok in & out movement. He can close a lot of distance with his punches, and fighters are surprised at how far out he can hit them. He has a decent leg kick, & quick body & head kicks. He can get his kicks caught at times & they aren’t very powerful. He also allows fighters to back him up too easily & he needs to be aggressive in this fight. When he finds his range he can be dangerous, but this is a tough ask on short notice. He is 6-0 with 2 KO/TKOs and is definitely more of a volume striker.
Bautista is an ok grappler, but definitely needs to improve in that area. He has good takedown defense in the clinch & will dig double under hooks, and land nice knees to the body. He has ok takedown defense overall, but fighters can back him up and take him down against the cage. When he gets taken down he is green & allows fighters to get into dominant positions & hold him down. He will attack from his guard & fighters have to mind their p’s & q’s, but once opponents pass his guard he is a fish out of water. He will look for takedowns of his own and shoot double and single legs. He can shoot the takedowns from too far out at times without setting them up. He has 3 submissions in his career. He needs to keep it on the feet this fight be aggressive & mix it up with kicks & punches. He should start fast & try to land some big shots. This is a tough ask for him and I feel landing a big shot and trying to finish early or dominate early and cruise is his best chance to win.
Sandhagen has looked amazing in his first two UFC fights and he scored 133 and 109 DK points in those performances. He strikes at a super high pace landing 9.85 sig strikes per minute, and he completed his solo takedown attempt as well. I am very impressed with what I have seen from him and I expect him to cruise with Bautista taking this fight on such short notice. I am a bit worried about Sandhagen playing it more safely after not having a full camp to prepare for this fight, and I do think Bautista on a full camp could actually make this a good fight. Bautista looks like he does belong in the UFC, it just sucks for him that it is on such short notice and against a stud like Sandhagen. I think it is finish or bust for Bautista, but I think he will win fights in the UFC.
On DraftKings, this will be a fight I don’t roster much, but I might even say Bautista is my preferred play because I think he makes my pool before Sandhagen does. With Gillespie and Hardy right above Sandhagen, I feel better about them both getting wins and over 100 points, so I won’t have much if any Sandhagen I’m thinking. I don’t expect Bautista to have much ownership at all but if he can come up with a finish in this let down fight for Sandhagen then he could win me $15k. Just for his talent and the letdown spot, I am willing to have a share or two of Bautista, but it’s not something I would invest heavily into or even use in a higher stakes contest. I also don’t care for this fight in cash and I think there are better cash punts on the card.
Winner – Cory Sandhagen via Unanimous Decision
Alonzo Menifield $9,100 vs Vinicius Moreira $7,100
Alonzo Menifield
Age: 31
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 114
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -280
Alonzo Menifield is an explosive, powerful athlete, who is a former pro football player. He is raw and young in his career as well, but much more polished on the feet than Moreira. He is very fast and throws with bad intentions. He landed a nasty overhand right, dropped and finished his last opponent in 9 seconds on the contender series. Menifield always starts very quickly and tried to take opponents out right away. He has a nice jab, and a good one two. He likes to close the distance with a leaping left hook, and it’s very powerful, but leaves him open to be countered. He has been hit and rocked before getting over aggressive in LFA. He has nice kicks and will throw hard leg, body & head kicks. He has good speed on his kicks and is a very powerful guy. He needs to be more composed in this fight, and not allow Moreira to get in his legs. Menifield has finished 6 of 7 wins via KO/TKO & and is a knock out artist.
Menifield is very physically strong and has a nice takedown game. He has very good double legs and does a good job of punching his way into takedowns. When he gets in on opponent’s legs he is extremely explosive & and it’s hard to stop him from taking them down. In the clinch he is very strong, he will land knees, and look for single & double legs. He can land nasty slam single legs, and really manhandle opponents. He does a great job of taking the back very quickly after earning takedown attempts and has a good rear naked choke. He also is very heavy on top & has nasty elbows. He was taken down a couple times by Daniel Jolly, but he is explosive and hard to hold down. He needs to be more disciplined on the feet in this match, and not make it easier for Vinicius to get him in grappling situations. Menifield is going to have a big athleticism advantage, as well as striking advantage, and if he keeps it on the feet he will KO Vinicius. If he can get Vinicius to go backwards and stop a couple takedowns I feel he could break & finish him early.
Vinicius Alves Moreira
Age: 29
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Five Rounds
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 86
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +240
This is a matchup of two fighters coming of victories on DWCS. Vinicius Moreira is getting a big step up in competition. He is largely a grappler, and very good on the ground. Moreira has been extremely active in 2018, he is 5-0, and will be looking to make it 6-0 in his UFC debut. Vinicius is very stiff on the feet. He does not have good technique on the feet at all. He has very slow plodding footwork and throws very low output. He doesn’t step into his punches, and his hand speed is very slow. When he throws punches, he doesn’t bring his hands back to his head fast enough and can get countered with clean shots. He will throw leg kicks, but he doesn’t set them up, and they are very easy to see coming. He will throw rear leg body kicks as well. He doesn’t have good defensive footwork and will just back straight up when opponents throw instead of angling off. His striking game is almost entirely to just find a way to close the distance or duck under when opponents over extend and get it to the mat. He will put heavy pressure on opponents in the beginning of rounds, and really try to back them up & against the cage. He stands very tall, and leaves his chin exposed. He seems to have a good chin and is willing to eat clean shots to get inside, but he was knocked out in his lone loss. He has 1 TKO, but IMO his striking is not a threat at all to Menifield.
Vinicius is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and dangerous when he gets in top position. He does a good job of getting in on a body lock against the cage and will work for trip takedowns. He will shoot doubles against the cage as well, and then will chain wrestle until he can get it to the ground. He will also shoot single legs and does a good job of grabbing a hold of a leg, and even pulling guard if he can’t finish the takedown. He has nice half guard sweeps when he pulls guard, and when he gets on top he has excellent guard passing skills and will quickly move into dominant positions. He has a very strong mount, and he does a great job of forcing opponents to give their backs, flattening them out and getting rear naked chokes. He can attack with an arm bar from back mount also. He also has a good arm triangle set up from mount. He is heavy on top & when he cements positions he is hard to get out from under. He has good cardio and does a good job of staying very active when he gets the fight in his world on the ground. He has 8 submissions, including 5 in 2018, and has finished all 9 of his pro victories. Vinicius needs to get this fight to the ground by any means necessary. I feel that if he can get into top position, he may only need one takedown to finish the match.
This is one of the easiest fights on the card to break down. On the feet, it’s not even close and Menifield should get the KO if it stays standing. If Vinicius can get this fight to the ground, then the grappling advantage to him is just as big as the striking advantage is for Menifield. If Menifield can stuff takedowns, he should win, and he should win early. The takedowns from Vinicius have not been great from what I have seen though, and I think he will need to push this fight to the cage and try to work takedowns from there to pull them off. If he can get takedowns, I think he might only need just 1 to work his way to a submission. Either way, this is a great fight to target and one that I would be fine going all-in on because I see this ending in the 1st or 2nd round. Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is -485 so this is one of the best GPP fights on the card IMO.
On DraftKings, Menifield is my preferred play and I expect him to get a knockout in the first minute or two. He reminds me a lot of a Greg Hardy who we will talk about later, and his ITD line is -165. That is hard not to like and he also has a solid +125 line for wins in round 1. I think he is a great play and he could be the guy to kick Hardy off the winning lineup if Hardy gets a super early KO and only scores 100 DK points. I also think Vinicius has one of the higher ceilings for underdogs and if he wins I think he scores about 95 or more points with a takedown, and a submission, plus any strikes or advance points he can add it. I just think he is too hittable and isn’t good enough at getting takedowns to be heavily invested in and I will have more exposure to Menifield. If you are making 10 lineups, I think this fight should be in at least 7 of them and I wouldn’t even hate 9 or 10. I expect around 100 points for the winner and I think this likely ends in the first 1.5 rounds.
Winner – Alonzo Menifield via 1st round (T)KO
Ariane Lipski $8,800 vs Joanne Calderwood $4,400
Ariane Lipski
Age: 24
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Rasthai
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -220
Ariane Lipski is making the move to the UFC as the current KSW SW champion. She is a very technical striker who throws with fight ending intentions. She has great distance control & in and out movement. She has a great jab, and nasty right hand. She throws nice one twos and has nice right hooks & overhand rights. When fighters close the distance, she will throw nasty hook combinations, and knees to the head. She has no problem brawling & letting her hands go in the pocket. She will dig to the body with hooks, and she likes to close the distance with a straight right hand to the body followed by hook combinations to the head. She has a nasty counter left hook. She likes to throw a jab leg kick or a straight right leg kick combination. She has fast hands & I feel she will have a speed advantage over Calderwood with her hands. Lipski has nice front & round kicks to the body. She has strong leg kicks. She is in constant forward pressure and does a great job of keeping a heavy volume of shots out there. Lipski has 6 KO/TKOs & a strong chin and good defense only being finished once in her career.
Lipski is well rounded, and an aggressive grappler. In the clinch she will unload with knees to the head & body and dirty boxing combinations. She can overwhelm opponents with her aggressiveness, and that’s an impressive trait. She is opportunistic with her jiu-jitsu, and ground & pound. She isn’t a super active wrestler, but she will shoot the occasional takedown, and in top position she transitions quickly. She will move to mount and throws hard punches & elbows. She was able to get an arm bar after getting bucked out of mount and will look for leg locks from her back. She has a good get up game, and strong takedown defense. She has been fighting 5 round fights & has great cardio. She has two submissions, and those were two of her last three wins. She is riding a 9-fight winning streak and should be confident coming into her UFC debut. Lipski needs to push the pace, close the distance, and make this a fire fight. In close range she throws more volume and has more speed & power in her shots. If she can get Calderwood to back up, and especially if she can get her close to the cage, she should be able to cut her off and land big shots.
Joanne Calderwood
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 65.5”
Gym: Syndicate MMA
From: Scotland
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 22
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +180
Joanne Calderwood has been looking good lately and has solved her confidence issues she’s once had. She is undefeated at FW in the UFC at 2-0 with 2 finishes, and with a win here will be close to a title shot in a light division. Calderwood is a UFC veteran, and definitely has fought the much higher level of competition. Calderwood is a crafty striker with a great chin. Calderwood is a forward pressure fighter. She walks opponents down and does a good job of controlling the center of the cage. She is very good with her lead leg and uses it to control distance like a jab. She has a nice front kick to the body & head, and solid front round kicks to the head. She has nice inside leg kicks and has a very kick heavy style. She has a decent straight left & left hook. She likes to throw body kick to straight left combinations. She has nice spinning back fists and spinning back kicks to the body. She will throw nice front elbows, front knees to the body as well. She throws a high volume of shots out there, and if opponents don’t give her anything to worry about she will get confident & walk them down with combinations. She is a bit slow & doesn’t move her head, so she is very hittable. She enjoys getting hit, tasting blood and hasn’t been finished by KO/TKO yet in her career. She has 5 KO/TKOs in her career.
Calderwood has been training a lot of grappling since moving to Syndicate and it paid dividends in her last match with an arm bar victory. She said she has been training a lot of BJJ again for this camp along with ground & pound. Calderwood will look for takedowns, usually either single legs or body locks. She has a solid body lock trip, & a good timing on her single leg. She also will level change very well into body lock entries & mixes it up well. She tends to start fights slow & she was taken down very early in her last match. She showed a nice bottom game, attacking with half guard sweeps, but she did spend the majority of the round on her back. Near the end of the round she secured a nice arm bar, proving she’s dangerous on bottom as well. She will also attack with elbows from bottom trying to cut opponents open. Calderwood has good cardio & can easily go three rounds. Calderwood has a few ways she can attack this fight in my opinion. She could try to pressure Lipski, eat her shots return with her own, and hope that she can take the power of Lipski. Lipski hasn’t faced many opponents who are willing to exchange with her & maybe she will break if Calderwood can eat her best shots & pour on the volume. The smarter game plan to me is for Calderwood to have smart pressure, not brawl & keep Lipski at kicking range. If she can pot shot her, & then land elbows and maybe even occasional takedowns when she closes the distance she could take this fight.
I was real impressed with what I saw on film with Lipski. She looks great! Solid fighter too… I think the line is right on this one though and we are paying for it on DK with a $8.8k price tag. I think at that price she is going to need a knockout to end up on the winning lineup, and I never like relying on women for knockouts. I think she is the better overall striker and I think she has some of the most power I’ve seen under 135 lbs for women. But I think JoJo is way above her previous opponents and I don’t see her standing in front of her for the counter KO. JoJo is likely going to be using her movement and not standing in front of Lipski, but I still think Lipski is the better and more dangerous striker. I think JoJo is live though. If she can use her movement and pick her spots on the feet, and then mix in takedowns to help seal rounds I think she can win a decision here.
On DraftKings, I am going to say Calderwood is my preferred play just for their price points. We need underdogs and I want to take shots at the underdogs I think have shots at winning. I won’t have much JoJo, but she will make my player pool at $7.4k and she helps us get up to those top priced guys. I might throw Lipski in a LU or 2 in the $10 because I also think she is live for the knockout, but if she wins a decision I don’t see her being on the optimal lineup. If I was making 10 or less lineups, I would either fade this fight as a whole or use JoJo in 1 or 2. This is not a fight I am going to be heavily invested in at all, but I can see cases for rostering both fighters. I will probably avoid this fight in cash games as well.
Winner – Ariane Lipski via Split Decision
Alex Hernandez $8,600 vs Donald Cerrone $7,600
Alexander Hernandez
Age: 26
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Ohana Academy
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -190
Alex Hernandez is extremely explosive & a well-rounded knock out artist. He is extremely confident and expects to “merk Cowboy.” He began his UFC career with a 40 second knock out of Benny Dariush, and he definitely has the ability to back up his words. Hernandez has great movement. He keeps a wide stance and does a great job of using smart, forward pressure. He is very good at cutting off the cage & staying in opponent’s faces. He does a fantastic job of switching stances when he closes the distance, similar to TJ Dillashaw to create new angles for his attacks. He has nice inside leg kicks, front kicks to the legs & body, and he will throw nice rear leg head kicks. He has a very nice straight right hand and will close the distance & follow with hook combinations after he lands it. He will throw the straight right hand as a counter as well. He likes to throw a rear leg body or head kick, to a right hook combination. He does a great job of switching stances mid combination & throwing a left or right hook. Hernandez’s aggression & forward pressure on the feet is what he needs to bring. He needs to close the space & throw punching combinations. He can sometimes get a bit over aggressive & leave himself vulnerable for counters. He has a great chin & Cowboy will need to put him out cold to finish him. He has 4 KO/TKOs & never been finished.
Hernandez is an excellent grappler. He is very strong in the clinch, and muscles opponents around. He has strong control against the cage and good knees and elbows. He has great double leg & body lock trip takedowns. When he takes opponents down he does a great job of locking the legs & not allowing opponents to use their full guard. He will try to slowly move to mount with the legs locked, and he has great control on top. He is excellent in the scrambles & very intelligent in BJJ positions. He does a great job of staying calm & got out of some bad positions and a deep kimura attempt against OAM. He had an amazing back take in his last fight, and I would be surprised if this kid got submitted. He can get very aggressive for takedowns in fights, but I feel he should look to just get takedowns at the end of rounds. I do feel he will be safe on top, but it gives Cerrone a chance to find a submission. He has phenomenal speed & cardio and is an extremely dedicated fighter. He has never been submitted & has 2 submissions himself. The game plan has been shown to beat Cerrone. Hernandez needs to start quickly, close the distance, walk down Cowboy & unload. If he lands clean, especially with Cowboy making the cut again he could finish him early. Cowboy has always been susceptible to the body at 155 as well, so body kicks should be part of the game plan.
Donald Cerrone
Age: 35
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: BMF Ranch
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 21-8
Fight Matrix: 14 (WW)
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +165
Cowboy Cerrone is making a quick turnaround & going to try to re announce himself as a contender at 155 lbs. He was trying to get a fight with Conor Mcgregor, and I hope he is still motivated to fight Hernandez because he is a far cry monetarily & name value wise. Cerrone is a nasty Muay Thai striker, and his highlight reel of finishes shows that. Cerrone throws vicious kicks, beating up your legs first and then attacking the body and head. He has the most head kick knockouts in UFC history. He has okay hands, but in boxing range he seems like he is nowhere near as comfortable as kicking range. He doesn’t have tight punching, or the greatest defense and he can be exploited in boxing range. He does have a nice check left hook in the pocket, and he has gotten better at dealing with pressure fighters. He throws a nice front leg side kick and stomp kick to the leg. He throws a stabbing front kick to the body and at distance really beats up all parts of the body. He uses takedowns to almost disguise a step-in knee at times and it’s beautiful. He throws a step-in knee after he gets denied the shot and even follows with a head kick to close the combination. If Cerrone can find his rhythm and range, fighters are usually screwed. When he is going forward, he is one of the nastiest strikers in the division. Cerrone has obviously taken a lot of damage recently, and he cannot get hit clean against a knockout artist like Alex Hernandez. Cerrone has 9 KO/TKOs, and 5 of his last 6 wins have been KO/TKO finishes. He has been finished with strikes 4 times himself, and, 3 have come in his last 6 fights.
Cerrone has long been an underrated grappler. He has always been very dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu, but he has improved his wrestling immensely in recent years. Cerrone has gotten much more wrestling heavy in recent fights, and it’s a smart thing to do since he is getting up there in age. Cerrone has good timing on double leg shots, and he also has good body lock takedowns. On top Cerrone is good, he has strong top control, and he likes to get to the back. He gets most of his submissions after he stuns and drops his opponent. He is very good at jumping on the back and locking in the rear naked choke. He has good takedown defense himself and is hard to hold down. Off his back he is very dangerous. He has nasty triangles, arm bars to go along with very nice sweeps. He does a great job of getting omaplata sweeps in the guard and will reverse top position. He has 16 submissions in his career but hasn’t gotten one since 2016. Cerrone is a finisher having finished 12 of his UFC wins and last 6 overall. He has good cardio and had a good showing in a 5-round fight earlier this year. For Cowboy, he is going to need to control the center of the cage. He needs to catch Hernandez with some shots early as he closes the distance and get him in a defensive shell the rest of the fight. Cowboy should look to throw counter head kicks as he moves backwards & a lot of front knees to the body & head.
I will start this one by saying I have been picking and betting Cowboy on almost every one of his UFC fight, and I will be biasedly picking him in my prediction for this fight. Those of you who are reading this and not just looking at my predictions will get a better idea of my real read for this fight though. I do think Cowboy is very live in this fight and he is the best guy Hernandez has ever faced. I think Cowboy is live for the KO, sub, or even a decision. But, I think Hernandez is the real deal and he has one of the higher ceilings on the card as well. Hernandez has looked great in his first two UFC fights against great competition. He is also super smart and knows the way to beat Cowboy is by pressuring him early and not playing buddy buddy with him. I think the line on this fight is right and Hernandez is the rightful favorite. I also think he can win this fight in the first 2 minutes and score well over 100-points. I think if he does come out heavy and doesn’t let Cowboy move forward or leave enough space to throw his kicks, then Hernandez has a good shot at knocking Cowboy out. I think he can land takedowns as well and work his GNP. I think Cowboy could pull of the sub from his back though so that might be a dangerous route for Alex. If Cowboy can weather that early storm, I think the odds should shift into his favor. We saw Alex slow down in his last fight and he packs on a bunch of muscle, so he could gas again and that is not something I am worried about with Cowboy. I think the longer this fight goes, the better chance Cowboy has to win.
On DraftKings, Cowboy is my preferred play because he refuses to be in a boring fight and if he does win then he will score highly like he always does. Even with his losses he averages over 80 DK points and he has scored over 100-points 5 times in his last 10 fights. I think Cowboy is in play in all formats, but I do prefer him for GPP over cash games. He will be popular though because of his name, so if you are going to use Cowboy I would want to be overweight which would be over 30% or so. If you don’t want to be overweight on him then I think you’re better off just fading him completely and getting your leverage elsewhere, even if that is on Hernandez. If Hernandez can go out there and pressure him from the start I wouldn’t’ be surprised to see him get multiple knock downs and the 1st round finish putting him over 130 or so points. I think his ceiling is that high with a finish against a tough guy like Cerrone. This is a great fight to target overall and I will be rostering both guys, but I am going to hope Cowboy humbles this kid and I expect Hernandez to be a title contender one day either way.
Winner – Donald Cerrone via 3rd round submission
Glover Geixeira $8,300 vs Karl Roberson $7,900
Glover Teixeira
Age: 39
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Teixeira MMA & Fitness
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 10-5
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -125
This is a very interesting fight. Glover Teixeira has been looking very old lately & he will be looking to bounce back here against Karl Roberson, who will be stepping up on short notice & bumping up a weight class to 205 lbs. He is a similar opponent in terms of a power striker to Cutelaba, but Roberson is much more technical. Teixeira is still very dangerous, but clearly diminished. No longer does he possess the head movement & speed to close the distance with his power hooks. This is a major problem for him, because his striking is still predicated on getting inside & close-range attacks. He now is much slower & keeps his head much more stationary, leaving himself easily hittable & fighters are able to hit & angle on him. He still has a great chin & will walk in with powerful shots making him a tough opponent for anyone. He likes to throw jab straight right hands. He will fake a straight right hand & come over the top with a left hook. His overhand right is powerful & if he lands it clean he can knock opponents out. He has a nice uppercut & times it well to counter opponent’s takedown attempts. When he gets inside he is still very dangerous. He will unload with nasty hooks to the body & head, with cracking power. He has a phenomenal chin & is willing to eat an ungodly amount of punishment & keep coming. He has 17 KO/TKOs & has been finished by KO/TKO 3 times.
Teixeira is an excellent grappler, and very dangerous on the ground as well. Teixeira is a very solid wrestler, with a great single leg. Single legs are the takedown set up he uses almost every time & he is very effective with it. He will turn the single into a double if opponents can defend the initial attempt, he has a nice double as well. On top he has vicious ground & pound and can knock people out in top position. He likes to posture up from half guard and throw down punches. He has a great mount, and that’s where he usually finishes opponents with ground & pound. He has solid submissions. He will look for rear naked chokes & has nice arm triangles. He has great takedown defense, he digs good under hooks & has a nice sprawl. He will defend the takedown with a guillotine attempt & he has a great squeeze. He does a great job of controlling the legs when he wraps up the neck giving him the ability to roll into top position. Teixeira has 6 submissions & has never been submitted. He is going to be the bigger more experienced fighter, with a full camp. He has good cardio & can go all three rounds. Teixeira needs to get this fight to the ground. On the feet, unless he can land a big shot that turns the tide I feel he will always be a step behind. If he can get a takedown we saw Cezar Ferreira submit Roberson pretty quickly last year & Glover should look to do the same.
Karl Roberson
Age: 28
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 74”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 60 (MW)
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +105
Karl Roberson is a prospect with amazing potential. He is extremely athletic & very technical with his striking. He has been training with Corey Anderson who is the last opponent of Teixeira and has decided to take this match on short notice up a weight class so I’m sure Anderson is confident he can beat Glover. Roberson looks to be in good shape & ready to perform. He is very fast & has a nice straight left hand. He has a nasty counter left hook. His straight left hand keeps opponents at bay & and he’s able to potshot fighters from the outside. He has strong leg & body kicks. He will brawl at times & he has an issue with leaning back & returning, relying heavily on speed. He will throw uppercuts in close range & can get a bit wild closing the distance at times. He can also back up a bit awkwardly when he’s defending blitz’s. In this fight he needs to avoid allowing Glover to control the center & push him towards the cage. He needs to land, angle off, use a lot of movement & not stand in front of or get backed up by Glover. He has big power, but in his last fight Jack Marshman was able to eat some clean shots & survive all three so I’m not sure if he will have the power to put out Teixeira with one punch. He doesn’t throw many combinations & he should look to improve that because I feel if he can land a second shot after his right hand he can put fighters out more consistently. Roberson has 2 KO/TKOs & has never been finished with strikes.
Roberson is improving his grappling immensely & was able to show it off in his last match against Marshman. He landed a couple well timed double legs & showed a lot of strength & explosion getting easy slams right into side control. On top he showed good ground & pound elbows and transitioned to mount landing some shots there as well. He has good control & was able to keep Marshman down. He has shown to be very dangerous in the clinch. He has wicked knees to the body & head and nasty elbows. He finished Ryan Spann in less than a minute with Travis Browne elbows while defending the takedown. He was also able to take the back & submit Darren Stewart, so he has shown some ability on the ground. In the one match he was put on his back he didn’t offer much. He was calm & worked his way back to his feet one time but was returned right away and ultimately put to sleep with an arm triangle. He needs to avoid being on his back at all costs against Teixeira and cannot over extend with his punches to create easy takedown opportunities. Roberson needs to keep it on the feet, hit & not get hit and just finesse Teixeira. He needs to use a lot of movement, & pick Glover off as he tries to close the distance. He should throw a lot of leg kicks & uppercuts. If he can stay disciplined and keep it standing he can cruise to a decision or even land a shot & put Glover out.
If Texeira was a few years younger I would take him easily in this spot and even bet him. I think he is the much better overall fighter and if he was still in his prime he would win anywhere he wanted it. Now he is 39 years old and clearly declining. Father time is undefeated, and I am thinking it is about that time for Tex. I think a dangerous striker, like Roberson, with everything to gain from being a guy like Glover is a dangerous matchup for him. I think on the feet I have to favor Roberson at this point and I think he can get a KO in any round. I think Glover’s best shot is to take this fight to the ground and look for a submission. I do think he can do that, but I am going to ultimately side with the younger guy here and I think he gets a knockout.
On DraftKings, Roberson is my preferred play, but we really need the KO for him to be on the winning lineup. I don’t see him scoring highly in a decision and he probably wouldn’t even 10x his salary if this goes to a decision. I think him not cutting weight here will actually help him and he will have more behind his shots, especially early in the fight. I think he can go out there and get a 1st round knockout and on a card where I see a lot of finishes happening, getting one from him at $7.9k would put us in play for that $15k. Glover is a solid play as well at $8.3k because he could get a 1st round submission and score over 100 himself, but I am probably fading with my top 20 lineups and just taking some shots on the dog instead. If you think Glover is going to get the finish, then I would suggest being overweight on him because I don’t expect him to be highly owned and 25% should get you some leverage on him and I think if he gets the fight to the ground he has a good chance of locking up a choke. I will probably avoid this fight in cash games though and take more of a stars/scrubs approach and try to get over ~350 total points with my cash LU.
Winner – Karl Roberson via 1st round (T)KO
Paige VanZant $8,400 vs Rachel Ostovich $7,800
Paige Vanzant
Age: 24
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Gracie Barra Portland
From: Nevada
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -155
Paige VanZant is returning from a pretty bad arm break, that has caused her to take a long layoff. She had surgery that didn’t take and had to have a second surgery on the same arm, but she says it’s 100% and she’s ready to go. Vansant is 0-1 so far in her campaign at SW, and I still think she is a bit undersized. This fight I don’t think it will play a factor, but if she wants to make a title run it should be at 115. VanZant has regressed since leaving team Alpha Male and has lost back to back fights. Her striking is not very good. She doesn’t use her hands much and relies on a lot of kicks from the outside. She will throw a jab, and left hook, but her hands are slow & don’t have much power. She will throw overhand rights & a lot of spinning back fists. I actually feel Ostovich has the advantage with her hands. VanZant will throw leg kicks inside, outside & a lot of jumping round house kicks to the body & head. She will also throw superman punches & likes to throw a lot of attacks she can begin from a long way out. She is better at landing the jumping round house to the body, but ever since she got a knock out with it over Bec Rawlings she has relied on it to the head far too much. She only has 2 KO/TKOs in her career & doesn’t have much power. She is tough & will take a lot of punishment and keep coming, and she has never been finished with strikes.
VanZant is a scrappy wrestler, but not the most effective. She will relentlessly force herself into the clinch & go for body lock & trip takedowns. She really likes to attack with a hip toss that has led to her back being taken multiple times. She will sometimes shoot double legs & or push opponents to the cage & chain together takedown attempts. On top she is pretty strong. She has good ground & pound and throws a lot of volume. She does a good job of transitioning and will move to mount & the back where she will land shots & go for submissions. She is strong in the scrambles & has solid overall takedown defense. She was taken down & controlled on her back in her last fight against JRC, & she didn’t show much at all off her back. She did have a broken arm after the middle of round 2 so that could have played a factor. VanZant has 2 submissions & been submitted twice herself & has mixed success on the ground in her UFC career. She has good cardio & will continue to come forward for all three rounds. VanZant needs to control the center of the cage & push back Ostovich with longer combinations. I feel if she can use punches to set up takedown attempts & pass Ostovich’s guard she could potentially have a big advantage on the ground.
Rachael Ostovich
Age: 27
Height: 5’3
Weight: 125
Reach: 62”
Gym: Jesus is Lord
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +135
Ostovich is a pretty good overall athlete, but pretty raw especially in the stand up. She showed some big improvements with her hands in her last match. Her jab was coming much faster, and she showed improved footwork. She was jabbing to the body a bit as well. She likes to throw jab straight right hand to the body to overhand right combination. She will wing a powerful right hook, and when it lands it has power, but she doesn’t really set it up. She will throw inside & outside leg kicks along with kicks to the body. She doesn’t set her kicks up sometimes and can be countered with punches. She will throw front kicks to the body & head, and actually has a decent rear leg head kick. She sometimes will land & then back off instead of keeping the pressure. She needs to correct that, because I feel that VanZant and many fighters can give her a lot of problems with forward pressure. She is tough, and when fighters close the distance, she will stand her ground, and counter with right hands. She has a strong chin, but she has been finished twice by TKO. She doesn’t have much power and has never had a KO/TKO.
Ostovich is a judo player, with solid Jiu-Jitsu skills. She is good in the clinch and has great balance. She defends takedowns very well and will land judo throws in the clinch. She actually prefers to shoot double legs & high crotch single legs from the outside. She has good timing on her takedowns & will be relentless trying to get it to the ground. On top she has pretty good ground & pound and top control. She does a good job of moving to dominant positions and has a good back take. She will control & land shots from the back mount while looking for a RNC, and arm bars. She has a nice arm bar and can get it from guard as well. She is very good in the scrambles & will take the back off opponent’s takedown attempts. Her guard is solid, she has flexible legs & is able to constantly attack with triangles & arm bars. When her guard got passed against De La Rosa, she didn’t show good defense. She gave her back & was ultimately submitted. She has solid cardio, and I feel a will to win and comes out hard even in the later rounds. She has 3 submissions & been submitted twice. Ostovich is going to need to keep it on the feet & use her hands to keep VanZant on the outside. If she can land her jab, and then shots to the body & head combinations, pot shot VanZant from the outside rack up volume she could win on the feet. I also feel she should look to get takedowns if she can, and if she gets taken down, attack immediately with submissions & try to create scrambles. If Ostovich can take the back she could find a submission.
This is a fight I am looking forward to watching more so than investing in. I am really only looking forward to watching it because they are two of the best-looking ladies in the UFC, not because it’s going to be a great fight. I actually think this will be a close fight that goes back and forth, and I am going to favor the better athlete, which IMO is PVZ. I think PVZ can win this fight anywhere it goes, but I don’t see a finish happening in this fight and Fight Goes To Decision is currently -180 which I think is even too low.
On DraftKings, I will say my preferred play is PVZ, but this is a full fade fight for me. I won’t have a single lineup with either of these fighters and I think if you are making 10 or less lineups then you should do the same. I think we will need a finish for either fighter to end up on the winning lineup and I wouldn’t feel comfortable investing in either of them to get that finish. Especially when there are cheaper fighters I feel better about. I would honestly need over 50 lineups before I targeted this fight and if I was making a full 150 then I would have no more than 10 lineups total with this fight.
Winner – Paige VanZant via Split Decision
Joseph Benavidez $9,000 vs Dustin Ortiz $7,200
Joseph Benavidez
Age: 34
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: California
UFC Record: 13-3
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -220
This is a rematch of a fight from 4 years ago. Joseph Benavidez returned to the win column with a bang, getting a first round finish as an underdog against Alex Perez. He looked fast & sharp, much better than his initial return fight vs Pettis. Benavidez is one of the best FWs of all time & with a win here will be right back in the mix for a title shot. Benavidez is a super explosive athlete & he really relies on that on the feet. He keeps his hands low & uses a lot of movement, fakes & feints before finding his opening to close the distance with explosive combinations. Benavidez has a solid jab, and good straight left hand. He has strong inside leg kicks & good round house kicks to the body. He does a good job of setting up his kicks with feints & by throwing them at the end of combinations. He has nice front kicks to the body & even will attack with head kicks. His most devastating strikes are still his hooks & overhands. He landed a hard overhand right that stumbled Perez in his last match & his usual speed darting in & out was back. Benavidez is extremely fast & closes the distance with hooks & overhands to the body & head very effectively. He has a nice straight left to the body overhand right combination. He is very explosive & can close a lot of distance with his blitz attacks. He has a nice counter overhand right where he slides out of the way of a shot and returns. Benavidez struggles with fighters who can control distance, avoid his shots & counter with cleaner, tighter punches. This is a good matchup for him to put the pressure & try to take out a fighter with strikes. Benavidez has 7 KO/TKOs in his career & has only been finished by strikes one time in his career.
Benavidez is a phenomenal wrestler both offensively & defensively. He is excellent in the clinch. He will get a hold of the plum clinch & blast knees to the head & body. He also has nice short uppercuts & body shots in the single collar clinch. He does a great job of landing shots on the break & he can stun fighters. He will attack with knees to the head overhands & uppercuts when disengaging the clinch. He has great takedowns in the clinch & is one of the most physically strong FWs of all time. He has nasty slam takedowns from the clinch & can really manhandle opponents. His style of blitz’ing in with 3 or 4 hooks & overhands makes it much easier for him to land takedowns. Fighters are worried about getting hit & he will just duck under and land a nice double leg. Benavidez is super active on top and will attack with nasty ground & pound elbows. He was able to get into a wrestling ride position against Alex Perez in his last match & rained down brutal shots & really finished the fight twice via ground & pound. Benavidez will move to the mount where he will look to finish with ground & pound or snatch up a guillotine. His guillotine is top notch & he has a brutal squeeze. He has great takedown defense & has only been taken down by perfectly timed shots by DJ & Cruz. He is extremely hard to hold down & will usually just explode back up to his feet. He’s never been submitted in his career, and only been finished 1 time. He has 9 career submissions, but hasn’t earned one since 2014. In their first matchup Benavidez had a clear speed & power advantage on the feet. He needs to use the same game plan here. Move around use feints & fakes to get inside, land his right hand and or get the fight to the ground. Using his takedown attempts to create striking opportunities off the break is something he should exploit. He was successful landing some big shots on Ortiz & taking him down in the first match and won a decision 30-27.
Dustin Ortiz
Age: 30
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Combat Sports Academy
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 8-5
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +180
Dustin Ortiz has long been a top 10 UFC staple in the 125 lb division. After a up & down career in the UFC he has finally found some consistency winning 3 in a row & 4 out of 5. He has two knock outs in his last three fights and has to be riding a big wave of confidence. He was able to knock off an elite level prospect as well his last time out in Matheus Nicolau. Ortiz has much better movement & good forward pressure. He is always coming forward & pushing the pace. He has improved his ability to cut off the cage & switched stances to stop fighters from exiting certain directions. He has a nice jab & good straight right hand. He has a nice left hook and will throw a straight right hand left hook combination. He has good leg kicks, and round house kicks to the body. He likes to catch low kicks & return with an overhand right. He likes to stay in the pocket & counter with right hooks. He has a powerful high kick, showing that with his last knock out win over Nicolau. He has 8 KO/TKOs in his career and solid power for 125. He has a great chin & has never been finished with strikes. He was dropped with a head kick & submitted against Brandon Moreno.
Ortiz is a grinder & a cardio machine. He does a great job of using his strikes to get inside, ducking under and getting body lock takedowns. He does a good job of changing the body lock to a double leg if he can’t finish it and is relentless in taking the fight to the mat. He has great scrambles & loves to take the back. He won a heavy grappling scramble fest match against Alexandre Pantoja who is a great fighter. He has good takedown defense, but he has gotten his back taken a few times, and lost to the elite grapplers of the division. He needs to be constantly coming forward, pushing the pace and staying in Benavidez’s face. In the first match he was pushing Benavidez backwards quite a bit but couldn’t cut him off or control him on the ground. I don’t see him being able to takedown & hold down Benavidez so throwing combinations & trying to back him towards the cage is his best chance to win.
The last time these two fought, Benavidez scored 93 DK points and Ortiz scored 29. That was over 4 years ago though and I think Ortiz has improved since then and Benavidez may be on the downfall. I see this fight being much closer and I think Ortiz is live in this spot. Benavidez is 34 years old now and last year he came back from an ACL tear and lost to little Pettis. Ortiz has come off 3 good wins and his last loss he was winning until he got caught. I expect this to be a very close fight, but I will ultimately pick Joe B to get the job done again. I think the line is too wide and $9k is too high for him, but I think he is still the rightful favorite.
On DraftKings, Ortiz is my preferred play. I like him for as a cash game punt option because I do think this fight goes all 3 rounds and I think he gets 30-40 points in a loss, which I am fine with if I can find another solid 3-4 wins. I also think he could pull out the victory and if that is the case he should 10x his salary and that makes him playable in all formats for me. I won’t have much of him in GPPs but he will make my player pool and at $7.2k he is hard to avoid with the way he has looked the last couple years. Benavidez will probably be a fade for me since he only had 93 points last time and I don’t see this being a more impressive win than that one. I would rather pay $100 less and take Dillashaw or try to get up to one of the top priced guys.
Winner – Joseph Benavidez via Split Decision
Gregor Gillespie $9,400 vs Yancy Medeiros $6,800
Gregor Gillespie
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Bellmore Kickboxing
From: New York
UFC Record: 5-0
Fight Matrix: 43
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -550
Gregor Gillespie has been an absolute buzz saw so far in his career. He has finished 4 fighters in a row and has yet to lose a round in the UFC. He is getting a step up in competition here against scrappy veteran Yancy Medeiros. Yancy is returning to 155 lbs after a pretty successful campaign at 170. He was 3-1 at WW but is trying to bounce back from a TKO loss to Donald Cowboy Cerrone. Gillespie is a good striker with huge power. He has shown that with a quick knock out of Andrew Holbrook. He keeps a high guard & walks opponents down. He has a good jab & nice, tight straight punches. He likes to throw a left hook straight right-hand combination. He has good feints & will fake takedowns & come up with uppercuts. He will wing big right hooks & overhands and is willing to brawl in the pocket. A majority of his striking is to set up takedowns, but opponents still need to respect his power. He has a great chin & will eat shots to close the distance and get takedowns. He is 12-0 and still extremely durable. He has 5 KO/TKOs.
Gillespie is a fantastic wrestler & plays to his strengths. He is a 4-time NCAA D-1 Wrestling All American, and 1-time National champion. He will look for takedowns right away usually within the first 10 seconds of every round. He does a great job of faking punches & then ducking under & grabbing a high crotch single leg or double leg. His snatch single is awesome & usually if he can get a hold of the leg fighters are usually ending up on their backs. His double leg drive is powerful & he can land big slams. He is relentless with takedown attempts & will be undeterred if his opponent stops a couple. Once he gets the fight to the ground he has a great top game. He has great guard passing and will transition to mount where he is very strong. He will land big ground & pound, and fighters have to decide if they want to eat elbows or give their backs. He has a great arm triangle from mount. Once he gets the back he will flatten opponents out and land thudding ground & pound while looking for rear naked chokes. He has 5 career submissions. He has great cardio as well, and overall has looked like a monster. Gillespie should look to get this fight to the ground. He is hittable on the feet & I feel it is 50-50 or even slight edge to Yancy on the feet. He needs to be weary of the front chokes of Medeiros, but if he gets on top he should have his way.
Yancy Medeiros
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 75”
Gym: Hawaii Elite MMA
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 6-5-1
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +425
Yancy Medeiros is getting a big opportunity here in his return fight to 155. Gregor doesn’t have the name value of a Cowboy, but he is a guy people are touting as a potential future champion & a win here would be a big statement. He has a ton of confidence due to training with Max Holloway & seeing his recent performance. Everyone who is a big UFC fan knows what Yancy is about by know. He is a tough scrappy fighter who is ready for war at all times. He has a nice jab, & good right cross. He will use the straight right hand as a lead & is accurate with it. He has a good straight right hand left hook combination. He will change stances mid combination & is tricky on the feet. He will dig to the body with jabs & hard hooks. He has nice body kicks & good spinning back kicks to the body & head. He likes to move & counter early and slowly as his opponent wears down start to put the pressure on. Medeiros doesn’t move his head much & when he gets hit clean he will stand right in front of opponents and try to swing back. He can’t do that in this match, because Gregor will duck under & get takedowns. Medeiros has big knockout power and can finish the fight with one shot. He has 8 KO/TKOs in his career. He has a great chin, but recently he has been getting hurt & was finished in his last match. He has been finished by KO/TKO twice.
Medeiros is an underrated grappler, and dangerous with submissions. He is good in the clinch, and has nice knees, and elbows. He will unload with body shots & uppercuts in the clinch. He has good clinch takedowns & will transition quickly to dominant positions & has nasty elbows from mount. He will sacrifice position to land big shots and his top control isn’t great. He has good takedown defense & will counter with front chokes such as darce’s & anacondas. He had a great bulldog choke finish against Daman Jackson where he put him to sleep. He has good sweeps as well & is hard to hold down. He has 4 submissions & only been submitted one time in his career. Medeiros needs to use forward pressure, feints & combinations in this fight. He cannot move backwards, but he needs to use straight punches & front kicks to keep Gillespie at his range & try to rock him with a right hand. If he can catch him & get Gillespie to panic wrestle he could catch a front choke submission.
This is a one-sided fight as far as I am concerned, and I am taking the guy who could contend for the title right now. That is Gregor Gillespie. He is the real MFing deal and his wrestling is top notch and puts him in play to beat anybody in the division IMO. He has also shown to have solid striking and has won 2 of his last 4 fights by (T)KO. I think he gets a dominant win here and he should get a top 5 guy in his next fight. Gillespie has 5 UFC wins and AVERAGES 120 DK points. That is crazy. He has the perfect style for DK and he should be able to get multiple takedowns in this fight. He doesn’t even need a finish to score 120 and I think he has the highest ceiling on the entire card. He is the best play on the slate and a lock for cash games.
On DraftKings, Gillespie is the best play on the slate and if you want to go all-in on him I think that is fine. If you are only making 3-5 lineups, then I would suggest going all-in on him. I expect him to be the highest owned guy on the slate at 50-60% ownership and even higher with higher stakes. I want to be overweight and the only thing that is keeping me from putting him in all 20 lineups is that I see a lot of finishes happening on this card and if he has an “off night” and only scores 105 points then he probably wouldn’t make the winning lineup. I think he is a lock for 100+ though and I think the only reason to take a shot on Yancy is chasing that $15k top prize and it will take over 20 lineups before I even think about putting him in 1. Gillespie in cash is the lock of the week for me though.
Winner – Gregor Gillespie via 2nd round submission
Greg Hardy $9,500 vs Allen Crowder $6,700
Greg Hardy
Age: 30
Height: 6’5
Weight: 265
Reach: 80.5”
Gym: ATT
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 162
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-0
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -515
The much-maligned debut of Greg Hardy will happen Saturday night vs Allen Crowder. Hardy is a massive favorite & getting the co main event slot in his debut. He is an elite athlete, arguably the best athlete in the entire HW division. He has had 3 fights that he has finished all in under a minute, and he has yet to be tested whatsoever in his UFC career. He has a decent jab & is improving with his footwork. He closes the distance right away & the speed power & explosiveness advantage he has over his opponents has been evident very quickly. His 1-2 is very nice & he will dig the right hand to the body as well. He has a nice uppercut. He has some of the best power in MMA & if he lands a couple shots clean he is going to knock his opponent out. He is still green with his defense, he will exit with his chin up at times & leaves himself vulnerable to shots. No one has been able to exploit it yet, and to exploit it opponents have to be willing to potentially exchange with him.
I have not seen much grappling from Hardy at all. The only grappling I’ve seen was in his last match. He was able to sprawl on a takedown & circle to the back trap a wrist & land some brutal ground & pound hammer fists putting his opponent unconscious. He hasn’t shown if he has great cardio, but I feel he truly is all in with this and comes in great shape. He should be improving even more with another camp at ATT & be pumped with his debut in the UFC. There is not a lot of finesse to Greg Hardy. He is going to try to close the distance overwhelm and take Crowder out. He is improving with his jab & we may see him try to use that in the early going.
Allen Crowder
Age: 29
Height: 6’2
Weight: 237
Reach: 76”
Gym: Rubao Carioca BJJ
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 169
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +410
Allen Crowder is getting another UFC opportunity after getting knocked out by Justin Willis in his debut. He is getting a huge opportunity to stop an extremely recognizable name with a lot of hype in Greg Hardy. Crowder is much more experienced then Hardy, but not nearly the same athlete. He is still a smaller more athletic heavyweight in his own right. He has a decent one two, and good leg kicks. He will throw left hook right uppercut combinations in close range. His left hook right hook combination to close the distance is probably his favorite combination. Overall his hands are slow, and he stands too tall in his stance. He was getting his kicks caught against Justin Willis & hit with counters. He will try to hand fight with his lead hand & then return with counter right hands. He is not very fast & able to get backed up against the cage. When he gets hurt he will try to move but his feet aren’t quick, and I see him needing take downs to survive in this match. He had been finished 3 times by KO/TKO, and has 5 KO/TKOs himself, but he isn’t a big power puncher.
Crowder has been training a lot of wrestling with great college wrestlers, and I imagine his game plan is to get this fight to the ground. He isn’t a great wrestler, but he will attempt double legs & singles. Once he gets the fight to the ground, he isn’t bad on top. He will move to the mount or the back quickly, but he doesn’t have big ground & pound or dangerous with submissions. He beats fighters by wearing them out. He can get shucked off the back and end up on his back because he gets too overzealous and if he does that against Hardy he will be knocked out. He has good cardio & proven he can go to decision but has only gone to one in his career. He has 3 submissions but none since 2014. Crowder needs to get this fight to the ground & get on top as quickly as possible. If he can get on top and lay on Hardy a bit, rack up some top control and ground & pound, he could possibly tire out Hardy who has never been past 1 minute and could win the fight that way.
This is an easy one to break down. This fight was set up for Hardy to get a win on the first ESPN card to help the UFC get another big name in the heavyweight division. The only real shot I see Crowder having is a lucky one-shot KO. I think he could maybe get takedowns and possibly a late finish, I just have a hard time seeing it with what he has shown us so far in his recent fights. The most likely outcome in this fight is Hardy landing hard early and getting another KO win in the first minute or so of the fight. Hardy ITD is -350 and he is even -230 to win inside round 1. I think he is a lock for over 100-points in this fight and he is in play in all formats. I do think his upside is limited though and I don’t see him having the ceiling that a Gillespie or Dillashaw does at 130 or so DK points. I think Hardy is going to be limited to 5-10 sig strikes, the knock down, and the 1st round finish bonus. So, that should but him at 100-105 DK points. He won’t be going for takedowns and if he drops Crowder it is probably from a heavy punch instead of a barrage of punches which would help add on points. I think if you are looking for a “safe” 100-points, Hardy is the way to go. However, if Gillespie and Dillashaw both score ~130, then I don’t see Hardy ending up on the first-place lineup, unless it is a stars/scrubs LU with all 3 of them on there, which is hard to feel good about.
On DraftKings, Hardy is going to be a heavy play of mine, but I do prefer Gillespie if choosing between the two. All ~20 of my lineups is going to have one or the other on them. I would like to get them both in cash if I can, but it is hard to like lineups like that, so I am not sure if he will make the final cut or not. I think Crowder is an easy fade if you are making 20 or less lineups, and the only contest I would even consider him in is a deep GPP like the $15k up top tournament. If he does somehow win with an early knockout, he is not only going to have 100+ points but he will also kill off 40-50% of Hardy lineups as well. I just think it is a long shot and we will unfortunately see Hardy get his hand raised this weekend.
Winner – Greg Hardy via 1st round (T)KO
TJ Dillashaw $8,900 vs Henry Cejudo $7,300
TJ Dillashaw
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Treiging Lab
From: California
UFC Record: 12-3
Fight Matrix: 1 (BW)
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -210
The grudge match is finally here. Henry Cejudo vs TJ Dillashaw in a champion vs champion fight is a hell of a way to start the year. This is one of the more interesting title fights in UFC history. It literally has the history of a whole division in the balance. Henry Cejudo is fighting to try preserve the 125 lb division, while TJ Dillashaw is fighting for the exact opposite. A loss here for Cejudo IMO would mark the end of the flyweight division & the narrative will forever be it was a division that was boring & lacked depth and talent. TJ Dillashaw is coming off slaying his arch rival Cody Garbrandt for the second time & becoming arguably the greatest BW of all time. If he can come down & collect another belt he would have to be in the discussion for P4P best fighter in the world. Dillashaw is making the drop to 125 lbs for the first time in his career & he has looked pretty bad in some recent photos. We have to monitor one if he even makes weight & two how he will perform at the weight. Dillashaw is an extremely well-rounded fighter with finishing ability. Dillashaw is in constant movement, changing stances bouncing around & faking & feinting a lot. He plays with his lead hand a lot moving it around trying to get fighters to focus on it, so he can land something else. He keeps his hands low & is extremely explosive when he closes the distance. He flicks out a nice up jab. He has a nice straight left hand right hook combination. He will close the distance land a punch, switch stances mid combination, & land a shot that opponents don’t see coming. His right hook in close range is very dangerous with big power. He has nice uppercuts in close range. He has good spinning back fists. He has good inside leg kicks & round house kicks to the body. He has nice front kicks to the body & face. He likes to throw 2-3 jabs into a high kick. He landed a nasty roundhouse kick to the head against Garbrandt that dropped him. He landed 3 nasty counter right hands in a row in his last match & was able to finish Garbrandt again. I feel after he won the first fight the second fight in hindsight was easy money. He had a mental edge & the emotion of Garbrandt caused him to make mistakes. He has huge power & when he hurts fighters he will finish them. He has 9 KO/TKOs in his career. He has been finished 1 time in his career, by another 125er in John Dodson. He has a questionable chin in my opinion, and he will be dropping another 10 lbs which could compound the problem.
TJ Dillashaw is an excellent grappler, and many people say he is the best MMA wrestler in the world today. He has an amazing take downs, and his shots are lighting fast. He usually attacks with a single leg & will run the pipe and bring fighters to the mat. He has a super-fast blast double leg & showed that against Assunscao and Lineker, really dominating Lineker with his wrestling. He does a great job of feinting or using punches to make opponents raise their hands & ducking under for the doubles. Dillashaw has a great top game & attack’s immediately with huge ground & pound. He does a great job of getting to the back and will control fighters from there. He was taken down a few times by well times singles & doubles off kicks by Dominick Cruz, & I see Cejudo attacking a lot with take downs. He is super hard to hold down & can scramble out of bad positions confidently. He has never been submitted in his career & I imagine would be incredibly hard to submit. He isn’t a huge submission threat with just 4 in his career. He has excellent cardio and neither fighter is going to get tired in this match. Dillashaw is going to need to go forward use feints fakes angles land long range shots & move. If he can land and start to rack up points, he could get Cejudo desperate and that’s where he could potentially land some shots on him coming in and finish him off.
Henry Cejudo
Age: 31
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 64”
Gym: Fight Ready
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 7-2
Fight Matrix: 1 (FW)
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +175
Cejudo has rapidly evolved since coming to the UFC specifically in his striking & ability to mix his striking & grappling together. His overall fight IQ has raised another level as well. He uses a long karate stance on the feet & is very good at controlling distance. He is light on his feet & very quick in & out. He has good hand speed & power for 125 lbs. He has a very nice straight & overhand right. He has a nice over hand right straight left-hand combination. He will fake level changes & throw right hooks, & left uppercuts. He likes to fake the straight right hand into a head kick & has good body kicks. He has nice front & round kicks to the body. In the pocket he will throw power hooks mixing it up well to the body & head. Cejudo has great fight IQ & will give just enough space to return & counter, and or explode in with a combination of his own. He has a huge head & a strong chin, never being finished with shots to the head. His one TKO loss was due to knees to the body in the clinch. He has 5 KO/TKOs in his career & has been promising to knock Dillashaw out.
Cejudo is an Olympic Gold medalist in freestyle wrestling & quite possibly the best wrestler in the UFC. He proved how elite his grappling was yet again, defeating Demetrius Johnson largely because he was able to take him down & hold him down. Cejudo does a great job of using fakes & feints to disguise his take down attempts & he’s very explosive. He has a nasty snatch single leg & will turn the single into a double leg if he cannot finish. He will use a double leg as a initial take down as well, but usually if he’s shooting it’s a single leg. He does a great job of getting in the pocket & then ducking under and grabbing under hooks. When he has the under hooks, he will explode forward and dump his opponents on their back. On top he does just enough to keep top position & not get stood up. He will stay in opponent’s guards & posture up with ground & pound. He likes to pressure pass right into side control & will use opponents take down attempts such as arm bars to jump into side control as well. Once he has side control he can manipulate bodies so well. He will land shots & when opponents try to get to their knees & try to stand up he has elite control in the wrestling ride position. He will trap a wrist & land big knees to the body and punches to the head. He will try to circle to the back, but he doesn’t do a great job of getting his hooks in. He isn’t a submission threat never having one in his career. He has never been submitted himself & has 100% take down defense in his career. Cejudo has phenomenal cardio & is extremely confident coming into this matchup.
This is a fun fight and one I think I will be all-in on for DraftKings. I don’t think this will be a FOTY contender where the fight gets 200 total DK points, but I think the winner ends up on the 1st place lineup at their price points. I will start by saying that if this fight was at 135 lbs then I would be picking TJ and I do think he is the better overall fighter. I think TJ has the better striking, movement and is more dangerous on the ground. He also has great wrestling himself. However, I think he has the worse chin of the two from what I have seen, and I don’t think losing that extra 10 lbs is going to help that at all. I think Cejudo is the better wrestler though and he looks to be in the best shape of his life from recent pictures. His striking has also improved a ton the past few years and it wouldn’t surprise me to see it look even better in this fight. I still think TJ will be the better striker in this fight, but if the fight hits the ground then I see Cejudo being on top. I also think Cejudo looks to clinch up a lot in this fight and keep TJ against the cage to look for takedowns there. I am worried about this weight cut though and how much it will affect TJ. This is going to be a fight I am sure to watch the weigh-ins for and see how drawn out TJ looks. If he looks healthy on the scales, then I may switch my pick to him. However, from what I have seen I don’t think we get the best TJ at this weight class and I am leaning towards Cejudo getting the job done.
On DraftKings, I will say Cejudo is my preferred play since we do need underdogs. He is not the highest DK scorer though and I could see him getting 70-80 points in a decision win, but at his $7.3k price tag I am ok with that score. I do think he can knock TJ out as well and if that happens then he will almost surely be on the winning lineup. TJ, on the other hand, can score well over 100-points in a decision and he has one of the highest ceilings on the entire card. He has scored over 100-points 6 times in his career, and 2 of those were in decisions. He probably won’t be able to score a lot of takedown points in this fight, but he strikes at a high enough pace to score highly just with sig strike points and his win bonus. I definitely want exposure to both guys and I am probably going to be close to 50/50 in GPPs, maybe favoring Cejudo 60/40. I will also be stacking this fight in my cash games because I think it is a lock for over 100 total points. I just think this weight cut is not the best idea for TJ for a division that is likely going to be scratched after the fight. I think if Cejudo can hit TJ on the button I don’t see him being able to eat the shots like he would at 135 lbs and I see him getting dropped and finished at some point.
Winner – Henry Cejudo via 2nd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this article and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
- Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100. I am +$17,824 since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets. I am also +$8,380 on the last 9 cards.