The NFL gets Saturday games back for the next few weeks, which means you get the Short Slate Debate: Weekend Edition!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I write the Chalk Donkey article for NFL VIPs as well as focusing on the showdown/single game slates on both sites and the Monday-Thursday Slate. In this article, I’ll break down the best options at each position for the Saturday Slate and give some pivot options off some of the chalkier plays, as well as some strategy for roster construction.
Slate Breakdown:
Week 16 keeps kicking with our second two-game Saturday slate of the year! The slate starts with the banged-up Washington Redskins heading to Nashville to take on the Titans at 4:30 PM EST and concludes with the Chargers hosting the Baltimore Ravens in Los Angeles at 8:20 PM EST.
Before we get started I want to make sure you know that you DO NOT need to use all your salary on these short slates. I have lineups with 7K left on the table, and some with $100. Last week’s winner of the big 8$ contest on DraftKings left $4700 in salary on the table!
The first game of the short slate has the banged-up Washington Redskins heading to Tennessee to take on Derrick Henry and the Titans. This game has one of the lowest totals of the year with a 37 point game total and the Titans being ten point favorites. That means that the Redskins are implied for 13.5 points…less than two touchdowns.
That being said, Josh Johnson since coming in two weeks ago off the street has actually been fairly serviceable. He has had outings of 25 DK points (in one half), and 15 points last week. On a slate where there aren’t really any clear cut great QB options, paying down for the cheapest one available makes some sense. He has had a turnover in each of those games, but that’s not enough to get me completely off him here. I think Johnson makes a sneaky GPP play even in a tough matchup.
Outside of Johnson, there isn’t a lot to like about this Redskins offense as there is literally no floor with anyone on this team. Jamison Crowder is likely the best option if you don’t want to run out Josh Johnson naked (which is a viable strategy with his rushing floor). Crowder leads the receiving corps with 11 targets in the two games Johnson has started. He is followed by, Josh Doctson (7), the ghost of Malcolm Floyd (5), Maurice Harris (3). The TE Target share goes Vernon Davis (7), Jeremy Sprinkle (3) and the injured Jordan Reed (1).
REED HAS BEEN RULED OUT! And Vernon Davis has been diagnosed with a concussion on Thursday. He’s questionable at best and is likely unable to go, meaning that Jeremy Sprinkle is the likely starting TE.
Adrian Peterson continues to be the lead back but faces a tough matchup against a top ten rush defense in the Titans. If the Redskins get down, its possible that Chris Thompson gets involved in the passing game, but his floor is so low compared to his price.
On the other side of the ball, Marcus Mariota is questionable with a foot injury. He has been limited but is expected to play. Last Sunday, in a sloppy wet game against the Giants, he only threw the ball 20 times, completing 12 passes for 88 yards and 0 touchdowns which made the performance his worst fantasy output of the year, beating the previous weeks total which to that point had been his worst of the year. The Titans have been the Derrick Henry show the last two weeks and Mariota hasn’t been asked to do much.
It’s likely that the Derrick Henry show continues on Saturday as the Redskins defense is ranked 29th overall against the rush. I wasn’t a believer that Henry would get the same sort of workload he had against Dallas, but he actually exceeded it, carrying the ball 33 times. No way does he get that sort of production this week as weather played a huge factor, but 15-20 carries is a reasonable expectation. The question is, are you willing to pay up for Henry when he could easily revert back to that single digit DK point floor? It’s worth a fade in some tournament lineups, especially with the likely return of Melvin Gordon in the night game you will need some salary savings.
The direct pivot off Henry is Dion Lewis. Lewis has been quiet the last few weeks as Henry has taken over but the Titans have shown that want to continue to get him involved. While everyone tries to jam in Henry and Gordon, Lewis might be the better GPP pair with Gordon at depressed ownership. He has the ability to take over a game like Henry and the PPR upside on a site like DK is huge, especially given that he is likely to be 3x less owned than Henry.
Finding a receiver in this game is difficult considering how little this team has passed over the last two weeks. Corey Davis is the best target, but you are paying up for someone that could likely get you a single digit DK score and is extremely touchdown dependent. After Davis, the next highest targeted receiver is Taywan Taylor who at his price doesn’t have to do much. He’s averaging 6 targets a game over his last three, and you won’t find any other receivers on this slate priced like he is with that sort of target share.
I was all in on Anthony Firkser last week. The price and volume were exactly what I was looking for in a TE on the slate. Literally, every single TE busted so it didn’t kill me, but it wasn’t great. Prior to last week, he had four weeks in a row with at least 3 targets. Game script had something to do with him receiving zero targets and I like him to bounce back a bit here. Washington is middle of the road against TE’s and on this slate, there aren’t a lot of great options at TE so Firkser makes some sense.
Neither of these two teams will garner much ownership and I think that makes stacking them an interesting GPP play. We’ve seen what has happened the last two weeks in the NFL where highly owned studs have busted, so a game stack here with a piece or two from the next game might be a contrarian way to take down a GPP.
Final Prediction: Titans 24 – Redskins – 14 (hits the over, but just barely)
The night game on the slate looks to be a little more high scoring, and hopefully a competitive battle between two teams int he playoff hunt with the Ravens heading out west to take Phillip Rivers and the Chargers.
A game total of 43.5 isn’t very high, but it IS higher than the game before this so it would make sense to stack more players from this game than the other. The spread of 4 points tells us that this should be a fairly close game. There is a ton of injury news to make sense of so lets get to it!
There are two huge injuries to watch this week and both players are on the Chargers. Hunter Henry and Melvin Gordon are the two players in question. One is likely to play, while the other most likely will be inactive.
Henry has returned to practice this week after rehabbing an ACL injury and while there was some buzz early in the week about him possibly playing in this game but it is HIGHLY unlikely that he is active and suits up. He has just started doing drills and there seems to be a less than 1% chance that he’s active and even if he is it’ll be in a bit role.
Gordon, on the other hand, is likely to play. He was a full participant on Tuesday’s practice and is on track to step back into his starting role. Unfortunately for him, he gets a difficult matchup against the #3 rush defense.
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The Ravens give up just under 19 DK points a game to opposing running backs and a paltry 28 yards per game in the receiving game to opposing running backs. Everyone and their mother is going to play MGIII, I expect his ownership to be around 50-60% if not higher. There’s a chance that he splits more reps with Justin Jackson than normal (Austin Ekeler is likely to be out) and that drives his value down even further.
Tough matchup, first game back, and playoffs on the horizon…I’ll have my fair share of MGIII on this slate and you may as well lock him in in cash but being underweight in GPP is likely the best game theory play.
The Quarterbacks in this game are the two you likely want to start your lineups with. Phillip Rivers has the highest projected QB points, but Lamar Jackson isn’t too far behind (.1 point).
Jackson is actually considered the #1 value on the entire slate if you include the Sunday main slate games. Neither matchup is very good for either of these QB’s as both defenses have been solid against the pass, but Jackson brings the rushing upside to this game. The return of Joey Bosa has shored up this defense though and its possible that Jackson is contained and some of the designed run plays for him aren’t as effective as they have been in the past.
I’m leaning running Jackson naked here, especially if playing cash games. This Chargers defense is solid and was able to shut down Patrick Mahomes last week to a certain extent, but the floor that Jackson brings with his ability to be mobile and rush the ball means that his floor is pretty solid. This is a slate where its likely none of the quarterbacks break 20 DK points, so I’ll take the player with likely the best floor. He’s also in a game in which his team is likely to be down. He has shown the ability to lead his team down the field on comebacks recently and has got it done not only on the ground but with his arm as well.
Rivers will likely be the most popular QB play on the entire slate. He’s a home favorite in the highest total game so rightfully so. The Ravens are a tough pass defense, arguably a tougher pass defense than rush defense (2nd in pass, 6th in rush according to DVOA). That being said, they did allow Mahomes to throw for over 350 yards so there is a chance that Rivers has a big day.
While I don’t like stacking Jackson with any of his pass catchers, the best way to attack the Chargers is with #1 receivers, which brings John Brown into play for me. Willie Snead has been the target hog though. All of the receivers are priced under 4.3k on DK though meaning they are all affordable.
Keenan Allen ruined a loooooott of showdown lineups last week when he dropped that touchdown pass and then went out of the game with a hip contusion and never returned. He was a limited participant on Wednesday and it’s worth watching his status for the remainder of the week. If he does play, I don’t know that I want exposure other than in stacks with Rivers.
The TE situation in Baltimore is a mess with 3 viable options and I’ll be staying away unless building 150 lineups. Mark Andrews is likely the best candidate to get the workload, but Maxx Williams has been involved as well, but Andrews is likely the guy I’ll have some ownership of. The Chargers are a difficult matchup for any TE though as they give up the least amount of yards and points to opposing TE’s in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball, TE is actually the best way to attack the Ravens stout defense. Antonio Gates saw a bigger workload with Keenan Allen out against the Chiefs, pulling in 4 catches on 5 targets. I would expect him to continue to be involved this week, making him a great option at TE.
Everyone will chase the HUGE game by Mike Williams last week and I’m doubtful he can have a repeat performance. Tyrell Williams had a solid game that was overshadowed by the other Mike. With Allen likely back, I’ll be taking my chances on Tyrell who should have his normal role in the offense opposite Allen. Tyrell actually had 3 more targets than Mike, though none in the red zone.
Overall, I think this is a solid game to target on both sides of the ball. We have two great defenses and two decent offenses. On a small slate, you likely have to some exposure a defense that is playing against your offense and that’s OK, but I don’t want to roster a QB and the defense he is playing against.
Final Prediction: Chargers 24 – Ravens 20
Along with coverage of the two games here, I’ll be providing exposures and strategy for the Showdown/Single game slates in our VIP coaching channels. Our VIP’s get access to all the showdown charts and data like this that show what the optimal lineup construction is on each site!
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Quarterback:
Lamar Jackson in cash and a pretty equal spread of the rest in GPP.
If I was MME and building 150 lineups here is how I would split my exposures:
Lamar Jackson – QB Baltimore: 30%
Phillip Rivers – QB Chargers: 30%
Marcus Mariota – QB Titans: 20%
Josh Jackson- QB Redskins: 20%
Having 20% of Mariota/Jackson will likely put you well over the field average. On a short slate like this, you can make the decision to go all in on a QB though and have 100% ownership. If you pick right you can smash, if not you likely aren’t dead in the water anyways as the spread between these 4 likely isn’t huge.
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Geek will have full SHOWDOWN/SINGLE GAME podcasts for both of these games as well!
Running Back:
At running back this week we have two RB’s priced almost 2k more than anyone else in Derrick Henry and Melvin Gordon and I really don’t think you need to pay up for both. I think both are viable and salary lets you do it (especially in cash games if you go that route) but on these short slates you need to get a bit contrarian and when we have two high priced RB’s that are likely to be the highest owned, it’s a great opportunity to pivot.
The best options for a pivot are Gus Edwards and Dion Lewis, with Lewis actually being a leverage play as well on the highly owned Henry. While everyone chased Kenneth Dixon last week (and they should he’s an elite talent when healthy and given a workload), it was Edwards again who paced the backfield with 19 carries for 104 yards. Dixon remains a viable option but it appears that Edwards is the guy to own in Baltimore. The Chargers are susceptible to the run, as we saw last week against the Chiefs (though that was partly due to them selling out to stop the pass).
Lewis, on the other hand, has taken a bit of a backseat to the Derrick Henry show as we talked about earlier, but still presents a fine option, especially in PPR like on DK. I like him to get involved this week against a poor Redskins rush defense. Of course, it’s entirely possible that the Titans just let Henry rush it right up the middle twenty times again, but I would think after the last two weeks, regardless of what defense he is playing against, teams will gameplan for him and he sees some sort of regression. That would open up the door for a big game from Lewis who doesn’t need many touches to make something big happen.
After Edwards, Lewis, and Dixon the pool gets pretty thin. The Titans rush defense is stout and the best defense in terms of DK scoring for opposing RB’s. In 150 lineups you likely need some exposure to Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson but this is a mostly stay away spot for me.
Justin Jackson holds some value in contrarian builds or for those assuming that Gordon is not fully healthy. Not necessarily something I’m banking on though.
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Wide Receiver
There ain’t much here… and that’s probably a compliment to this group.
There is only one player in this entire group that we are projecting for over 50 receiving yards…ONE! On the main slate this weekend we have 32….THIRTY-TWO! That tells you all you really need to know about the receivers here. That being said there are some sneaky gems in this group.
Keenan Allen is clearly a great play if he gets a full practice in this week and suits up Saturday. Corey Davis is the ultimate boom or bust GPP play and is a guy who seems to get up for matchups, so lining up across from Josh Norman may help, though he still has Mariota throwing him the ball.
John Brown is one of my favorite WR plays. The Chargers struggle with #1’s and those Air Yards he is averaging each game (103.3 YDS/GAME) and ADOT of 16.4 mean that he is due to bust a big one here if he can bring in a few more of the 6 targets he’s getting a game. A prime candidate for positive regression.
After that, it really comes down to stacks for me. Who are you stacking with your quarterback? As I broke down earlier I like getting on Tyrell Williams while everyone chases a repeat performance from Mike Williams. Tyrell had more targets and should continue to see a similar amount of work with Keenan Allen back while Williams likely loses out on some of that.
Playing the main slate? My boy Dabbingpuggle has you covered with his weekly ‘Draw Plays’ article that covers the best WR/CB matchups on the slate. Trust me this guy pulls some GEMS! (Remember that Albert Wilson game in week 6? Puggs was all over it!) Here’s a sneak peek!
Check the rest out here!!—-> Puggle’s Draw Plays
Jamison Crowder paired with Josh Jackson also makes a lot of sense. Crowder will likely avoid Adoree Jackson who is the Titans top DB. Willie Snead is getting the most targets on this new Ravens offense, but has only found the end zone once this year.
Overall, this group of receivers is going to be difficult to navigate, in MME I plan on being heavily invested in Brown, Allen, Crowder, and Tyrell and getting equal shares to the rest.
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Tight End:
TE is a bit of a cesspool this week of back up TE’s and guys who aren’t really involved in the offense. Vernon Davis likely becomes the chalk IF HE PLAYS (questionable with a concussion) with Jordan Reed ruled out. That being said, he faces the toughest matchup on the slate in terms of TE fantasy points given up and has Josh Johnson throwing him the ball.
The problem with a slate like this is one of these guys is going to accidentally catch a touchdown. It’s going to happen. You just need to be prepared for it. Heck, it might even be Jeremy Sprinkle again. (I had to look up his name because I could have sworn that it was Jordan)
Antonio Gates has the best matchup and with Allen out last week he saw an uptick in targets. I would assume that he sees 4-5 targets again and he seems to be the TE here most likely to catch a TD.
I love me some Anthony Firkser as well, even though it’s a difficult matchup. Everyone who is a game log watcher will jump off him after the zero last week and I think we get back to the 3-5 targets and the sure-handed Firsker in the red zone again.
The Baltimore TE’s are a mess and a stay away spot for me. They have three legitimate options in Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst, and Maxx Williams. They are in a run-heavy offense and split the targets pretty evenly. You can throw a dart in GPP and hope one falls into the end zone, but it’s likely just blind luck that you pick the right one.
One HUGE benefit of being a DFS Army VIP is access to “Geek’s Picks” sheet where he breaks down his personal player pool for the slate!
Check out this write up on Jamaal Williams this week and get him in a few lineups as he’s in a fantastic spot!
Check of the rest of Geek’s player pool and picks here! —> Geek’s Picks
Defense:
Defense on these short slates is always really tough and they are all viable. None of them are so bad that you need to avoid them. Typically I do one of two things.
- Play the cheapest defense available.
- Play whichever defense I have the least amount of players going against.
For me, there is no clear-cut must play defense this week. I was pretty heavily invested in the Texans last week and it paid off, but this week there’s no defense that really stands out. I’ll have the most shares of the Titans, and be pretty equally invested in the other three after that, pending who I’m rostering.
Here’s how I rank them and my plan on exposure.
- Tennessee – 40%
- Chargers – 20%
- Redskins – 20%
- Ravens – 20%
Final Thoughts:
I love the small 2 game slates and think its easier to cash most weeks than the Main, but the line between cashing and is not pretty sharp because it’s only two games. Be smart with your bankroll and contest selection though and you should have a profitable week!
I think that this is a great week to get contrarian in GPP. The chalk that is expected can easily bust and there are tons of viable options. Get a little funky and lets take something down!
Let’s have a great week! I can’t wait to see those helmets crushing at the top of the leaderboard!
Both of these games will have showdowns and I’ll have full breakdowns with my anticipated exposures in our coaching channels!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to the games Saturday!
Don’t just take my word for it….
