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Buyers and Sellers As A Concept
The concept of Buyers and Sellers is simple. Baseline averages tell us a lot. We can use short term numbers as hot/cold indicators as they cross longer term numbers. For example, season long averages and a skater’s last 20 games. If his season fantasy output is 20 points per game, but he is currently producing 23 points per game over his last 20 games, he can be considered running hot. And, if he is only producing 18 points per game, he can be considered running cold.
DFS pricing does not react fast enough. We can use these crossing baselines to indicate whether we should be “buying” or “selling” our skater. See graphic below…
Here we are looking at a crude graphic of a skater’s last 10 games (black) compared to his last 5 games (blue). As the blue line crosses the black line upward, our skater is running hot (green arrow). As he cools off, he will cross below (red arrow). Now, over time, we can visualize whether we should be buying or selling. Since I like looking at L10 games vs L5 games most, let’s look at tonight’s buyers and sellers.
TIP – Not an all-inclusive list most nights, I focus on MY favorite teams for the night. I make hard-lined decisions often on bigger slates. Right or wrong, it’s often how I play. Hockey is volatile, and I will have great nights and poor nights. I can live with that. I don’t need to be in constant pursuit of perfection. We only need to get good at getting close and let the law of averages play out from there. Overthinking DFS is honestly a huge leak in many players’ games when allowed to frustrate them to the point they are no longer playing optimally.
Quick Targets Tonight
Top Vegas ITTs – Columbus, Philadelphia, Florida
Sneaky Offenses – Boston
Goalie Glance
Highest % Chance at Win (Vegas Odds) – Luongo (FLA), Halak (BOS)
December 22nd Buyers
NHL Defense
Roman Josi (NSH $6300) – L10 17.6/L5 19.6 – Josi has been asked to do a lot for Nashville of late. His production is outpacing his price. Buy.
Dennis Cholowski (DET $4000) – L10 8.5/L5 11.3 – We all need value defensemen. Even on a 3 game slate, I don’t mind taking hot running value against my goalie.
NHL Center
David Krejci (BOS $6100) – L10 13.9/L5 16.0 – Centering the top BOS line with Pastrnak and Marchand usually leads to some easy points. Price still too low….buy.
Nick Bonino (NSH $3300) – L10 7.5/L5 11.8 – Talk about cheap points! Sure, 3rd line, but for under $3500 you just don’t need much. Give me a longer stretch of nearly 8 ppg, then run hotter on top of that? Yes please.
DFS Wing
Brad Marchand (BOS $8100) – L10 23.6/L5 29.7 – Hottest skater on the slate currently, but expensive. Short slates with value do, however, allow this reach in salary, and it benefits you when this salary is also still a “value” play due to current production.
David Pastrnak (BOS $8200) – L10 25.3/L5 29.0 – Highest current 10-game floor on the slate, and still bringing value at his price. You might not get all of BOS1 today, making Krejci more important, but if you can……buy. Sometimes using SOGBS as your tie-breaker benefits you in close pricing such as these two. Our Research Station at DFS Army has plenty of stats to dig through when making your decisions.
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December 22nd Sellers
DFS Defense
Keith Yandle (FLA $5600) – L10 19.7/L5 11.1 – A normal staple in our usage of Panthers skaters, we can wait for better timing….Sell
DFS Center
Kyle Turris (NSH $5000) – L10 7.5/L5 2.9 – Hard sell here. Non-existent of late.
NHL Wing
Jonathan Huberdeau (FLA $7100) – L10 23.7/L5 17.5 – Watch this one, it could be a long-term sell. Huberdeau is the kind of player that can go on long cold streaks, making the buy/sell parameters really important for a guy like him.
There are many more on this list once you see how to spot them. I encourage you to roll through your source, or our Research Station, to find them and write them down. Make a player pool tonight, focus on some stacking of players, and choose your contests. For more advice, join our coaching chats, and we’ll help you shape your game, too.
Final Recommendation
You are going to find volatility in this sport, no matter the method you use to select players. Short slates allow us to really stack skaters up, and that increases volatility. However, it also allows us to spot heavy chalk and get away from it to leverage the field in tourneys. Today offers decent opportunities at both here on this early slate. Take your stand and go for something. Leave your comfort zone and grow as a player!
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