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Buyers and Sellers As A Concept
The concept of Buyers and Sellers is simple. Baseline averages tell us a lot. We can use short term numbers as hot/cold indicators as they cross longer term numbers. For example, season long averages and a skater’s last 20 games. If his season fantasy output is 20 points per game, but he is currently producing 23 points per game over his last 20 games, he can be considered running hot. And, if he is only producing 18 points per game, he can be considered running cold.
DFS pricing does not react fast enough. We can use these crossing baselines to indicate whether we should be “buying” or “selling” our skater. See graphic below…
Here we are looking at a crude graphic of a skater’s last 10 games (black) compared to his last 5 games (blue). As the blue line crosses the black line upward, our skater is running hot (green arrow). As he cools off, he will cross below (red arrow). Now, over time, we can visualize whether we should be buying or selling. Since I like looking at L10 games vs L5 games most, let’s look at tonight’s buyers and sellers.
TIP – Not an all-inclusive list most nights, I focus on MY favorite teams for the night. I make hard-lined decisions often on bigger slates. Right or wrong, it’s often how I play. Hockey is volatile, and I will have great nights and poor nights. I can live with that. I don’t need to be in constant pursuit of perfection. We only need to get good at getting close and let the law of averages play out from there. Overthinking DFS is honestly a huge leak in many players’ games when allowed to frustrate them to the point they are no longer playing optimally.
Quick Targets Tonight
Top Vegas ITTs – Nashville, Colorado, Pittsburgh
Sneaky Offenses – Vegas, Montreal, NY Islanders
Goalie Glance
Highest % Chance at Win (Vegas Odds) – Rinne (NSH), Varlamov (COL), Fleury (Vegas)
December 17th Buyers
NHL Defense
Shea Weber (MTL $5800) – L40 15.6/L5 16.3 – Weber is a standard powerhouse of offensive support from a blue line. When rolling, he’s in play in any matchup.
Jeff Petry (MTL $4600) – L40 12.6/L5 20.8 – Standard value play with a high floor. Obviously, providing production as well right now. Buy.
Ryan Pulock (NYI $4300) – L40 8.8/L5 10.2 – Another strong value play with a high shot and block floor of points for a low price.
NHL Center
Nathan MacKinnon (COL $8800) – L40 22.9/L5 25.7 – So consistent, along with that whole COL1 unit. So chalky every night it makes me thirsty every morning.
Carl Soderberg (COL $4400) – L40 11.3/L5 12.2 – Not many notice the 3rd liner Soderberg. But, I’ve been playing him for weeks. Still a buy.
Matthew Barzal (NYI $5800) – L40 12.0/L5 17.0 – Not many mid priced centers running this hot right now. He’s also under the radar around DFS. Buy.
DFS Wing
Mikko Rantanen (COL $8400) – L40 20.9/L5 27.0 – Getting harder to afford all of COL1, but you just gotta try right now. All three are too hot.
Gabriel Landeskog (COL $7200) – L40 18.7/L5 27.2 – 79.9 points average over the COL1 L5 as a stack. $24.4k is steep, but it’s still over 3x value…..absolutely bonkers.
Colton Sissons (NSH $3600) – L40 9.1/L5 16.5 – You will need value tonight. Why not 5x for cheap, then move into COL1? You won’t be the only one doing this, but it’s smart.
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December 17th Sellers
DFS Defense
Roman Josi (NSH $6300) – L40 14.3/L5 12.8 – Top team for ITT tonight, but overpriced as of late per production….sell.
Tyson Barrie (COL $5500) – L40 12.4/L5 8.4 – Probably not the production you want when trying to gain access to COL1 right now. Sell.
DFS Center
Sidney Crosby (PIT $8700) – L40 17.4/L5 9.0 – A little blasphemous placing The Kid on the sell list, but when L5 is half of what it should be, you sell.
Egveni Malkin (PIT $8000) – L40 14.7/L5 7.8 – If a little blasphemous putting Sidney here, it has to be a LOT blasphemous putting both Sid and Malkin here. But, tough times call for tougher decisions, and I want my skaters on sale not overpriced. Sell again.
NHL Wing
Phil Kessel (PIT $7700) – L40 15.8/L5 11.0 – PIT taking a beating on my list tonight. I guess we’ll see if I can outsmart Vegas this evening.
Anders Lee (NYI $6600) – L40 13.2/L5 8.6 – Not a good recent run for Anders Lee. I can wait for better times. Sell.
There are many more on this list once you see how to spot them. I encourage you to roll through your source, or our Research Station, to find them and write them down. Make a player pool tonight, focus on some stacking of players, and choose your contests. For more advice, join our coaching chats, and we’ll help you shape your game, too.
Final Recommendation
Let me know how you like this format in our coaching channels. I rely on your feedback for new concepts and to bring you information you feel makes you better players.
Remember, on larger slates, you are just going to need to take stands. No one can cover all the bases and find every key player from every game without a little luck. What we can do, however, is narrow our pool to the best possible choices and hope to hit on the right players in those top spots. Correlation is often the key to gpps. But, on larger slates, you can limit your stacking and really spread out for cash games and head to heads. For your upside contests in that cash lineup, consider 3man leagues or 10man leagues. Any cash lineup can beat 10 people, and you gain some upside for doing so. Smart money plays in DFS. Be smart.
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