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Buyers and Sellers As A Concept
The concept of Buyers and Sellers is simple. Baseline averages tell us a lot. We can use short term numbers as hot/cold indicators as they cross longer term numbers. For example, season long averages and a skater’s last 20 games. If his season fantasy output is 20 points per game, but he is currently producing 23 points per game over his last 20 games, he can be considered running hot. And, if he is only producing 18 points per game, he can be considered running cold.
DFS pricing does not react fast enough. We can use these crossing baselines to indicate whether we should be “buying” or “selling” our skater. See graphic below…
Here we are looking at a crude graphic of a skater’s last 10 games (black) compared to his last 5 games (blue). As the blue line crosses the black line upward, our skater is running hot (green arrow). As he cools off, he will cross below (red arrow). Now, over time, we can visualize whether we should be buying or selling. Since I like looking at L10 games vs L5 games most, let’s look at tonight’s buyers and sellers.
TIP – Not an all-inclusive list most nights, I focus on MY favorite teams for the night. I make hard-lined decisions often on bigger slates. Right or wrong, it’s often how I play. Hockey is volatile, and I will have great nights and poor nights. I can live with that. I don’t need to be in constant pursuit of perfection. I only need to get good at getting close and let the law of averages play out from there. Overthinking DFS is honestly a huge leak in many players’ games when allowed to frustrate them to the point they are no longer playing optimally.
December 7th Buyers
NHL Defense
Oscar Klefbom (EDM – $5700) – L5 19.2/L10 16.9 – The Oilers might not be in a super great spot tonight, but you can’t argue how hot Klefbom has been. 62 SOGBS (DFS Army metric measuring floor) is the highest on the slate over our L10 numbers. One-offing a defenseman is an easy way in and out of an offense in a mediocre matchup on a mediocre slate. And, it just so happens you get the best producing piece in this offense at the moment at a nice discount, too.
Jacob Trouba (WPG – $5300) – L5 17.1/L10 12.7 – Trouba is running hot, but we need to watch the news today being Byflugien is set to return. Trouba might lose his exposure to the big Jets guns on the PP unit. However, we do want to focus on Jets tonight and attack the poor STL defense. You won’t see me mention many of them in this article, but they will be chalky, and they should be targeted as a unit.
NHL Center
Mark Scheifele (WPG – $8700) – L5 24.3/L10 18.9 – Scheifele is producing now like Laine was last week. 4 goals and 3 assists in 5 games with very little of it coming on the power play. Scheifele is simply running white hot and he draws an incredible matchup tonight with STL and their leaky defense. Your lineup should almost just start here unless fading for leverage in gpps.
Ryan Getzlaf (ANA – $7100) – L5 14.7/L10 14.3 – Ok, so we don’t have a lot else to go on tonight. Slow and steady wins the race, and Getzlaf has been consistent at least. Not sexy, but shouldn’t burn you. All our other names at the center position are running a bit below their L10 numbers, so this is “hot” by default.
DFS Wing
Joe Pavelski (SJS – $8100) – L5 23.0/L10 18.8 – While I’m not a fan of San Jose tonight, Pavelski remains crazy good. In his last five games, we see 3 even strength goals and 2 on the power play for an average of a goal per game. You can’t really ask for more.
Pontus Aberg (ANA – $3700) – L5 18.9/L10 13.1 – Heck the 13.1 is great for $3700, but 18.9? That’s just madness. I feel like I’m looking at 1969 prices or something because this feels like a scoop of ice cream for a nickel.
RELATED READING – Follow the DFS Diary, a daily entry of screenshare video showing you exactly where we find our early day numbers to start our research processes along with various tips and strategies. NFL, NBA, and NHL all covered. Help me spread the word on Twitter with a retweet, and I will enter you in my #JanuarySweeps, where one (or more) lucky winner(s) will receive a free, full VIP month into DFS Army courtesy of me. Thank you for helping.
December 7th Sellers
DFS Defense
Matt Dumba (MIN – $5700) – L5 8.5/L10 16.8 – Where have you gone, Matt Dumba? I have rostered you blindly for weeks and now you make me look at your numbers? Look no further than your shots on goal. What was 31 over your last ten games has melted into only 8 in your last five? Yeh, I’m selling you to the scrap yard for pennies on the dollar right now because you are suddenly incredibly overpriced for what you give me.
DFS Center
Connor McDavid (EDM – $9100) – L5 16.0/L10 19.1 – Yep, I went and done it. I put the mumbo jumbo OppoChoppo hex on McJesus during Hannukah. May I burn in hell. We all know McDavid is a stud. But, at these prices, we want to play them at their peak rather than guess how their night will go. I won’t be surprised to see him skate up to the camera after his 3rd goal in 10 minutes and flip the camera off while mouthing my name, but I don’t expect this to be a great night in this matchup most times. I can save some money and take better chances elsewhere.
NHL Wing
Patrick Laine (WPG – $8500) – L5 11.6/L10 24.2 – But, Chop, didn’t Laine drop 5 goals on your boys the last time you played them? Why, yes, Mr. QuestionAsker, he did. But, we noted then that the production was unsustainable and we needed to keep playing him until we saw evidence he was cooling off. That was about 3 games ago. I hope you saw it. I did. 38 SOG in his L10 with only 15 in his L5, and 10 goals in his L10 with only 1 in his L5…..ummm, quite the drop. Sell.
Final Recommendation
Let me know how you like this format in our coaching channels. I rely on your feedback for new concepts and to bring you information you feel makes you better players.
Remember, on larger slates, you are just going to need to take stands. No one can cover all the bases and find every key player from every game without a little luck. What we can do, however, is narrow our pool to the best possible choices and hope to hit on the right players in those top spots. Correlation is often the key to gpps. But, on larger slates, you can limit your stacking and really spread out for cash games and head to heads. For your upside contests in that cash lineup, consider 3man leagues or 10man leagues. Any cash lineup can beat 10 people, and you gain some upside for doing so. Smart money plays in DFS. Be smart.
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