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Buyers and Sellers As A Concept
The concept of Buyers and Sellers is simple. Baseline averages tell us a lot. We can use short term numbers as hot/cold indicators as they cross longer term numbers. For example, season long averages and a skater’s last 20 games. If his season fantasy output is 20 points per game, but he is currently producing 23 points per game over his last 20 games, he can be considered running hot. And, if he is only producing 18 points per game, he can be considered running cold.
DFS pricing does not react fast enough. We can use these crossing baselines to indicate whether we should be “buying” or “selling” our skater. See graphic below…
Here we are looking at a crude graphic of a skater’s last 10 games (black) compared to his last 5 games (blue). As the blue line crosses the black line upward, our skater is running hot (green arrow). As he cools off, he will cross below (red arrow). Now, over time, we can visualize whether we should be buying or selling. Since I like looking at L10 games vs L5 games most, let’s look at tonight’s buyers and sellers.
TIP – Not an all-inclusive list most nights, I focus on MY favorite teams for the night. I make hard-lined decisions often on bigger slates. Right or wrong, it’s often how I play. Hockey is volatile, and I will have great nights and poor nights. I can live with that. I don’t need to be in constant pursuit of perfection. We only need to get good at getting close and let the law of averages play out from there. Overthinking DFS is honestly a huge leak in many players’ games when allowed to frustrate them to the point they are no longer playing optimally.
December 14th Buyers
NHL Defense
Dustin Byflugien (WPG – $5800) – L5 21.3/L10 17.5 – None hotter right now and WPG is the 2nd highest scoring team over the last 2-3 weeks in the league. Add in the CHI defense allowing the most goals against over the same span, and you are going to want Jets skaters by the dozen………you just need to buy the right ones.
Josh Morrissey (WPG – $4400) – L5 20.1/L10 15.8 – The L10 number is high for Morrissey, but the L5 is ridiculous. Unsustainable, but you gotta ride that value when it’s this hot.
Daniel Nurse (EDM – $4000) – L5 19.0/L10 13.0 – Edmonton finds themselves in a decent spot tonight, and Nurse should be involved if the bigs do damage.
NHL Center
Connor McDavid (EDM – $9200) – L5 26.3/L10 21.6 – McJesus take the wheel! I know that’s a high price to pay, but do you pay for Anthony Davis when he’s on a roll in NBA? This isn’t different. Why? He’s still bringing Todd Gurley value to you at his big tag. Value is value. Buy all the raw points you can, and hope he continues his “average play” over his last 5 games.
Dylan Larkin (DET – $6700) – L5 23.2/L10 19.2 – We find DET in a sneaky spot tonight. Larkin is one of their hot hands……and underpriced.
Johnathan Toews (CHI $6800) – L5 15.4/L10 11.3 – Chicago is my sneaky team tonight, and I won’t be shocked to see the game become a bit of a shootout. Toews is running hot and Patrick Kane commands a ton of the Blackhawk scoring. They make a neat little tourney combo tonight.
DFS Wing
Gabriel Landeskog (COL – $7200) – L5 26.2/L10 20.4 – There are right moves, and there are right moves. Anyone from COL1 tonight is the right move. Stacking them is the right move. Landeskog happens to be the “hottest” at the moment, and the cheapest.
Gustav Nyquist (DET – $6100) – L5 22.7/L10 17.7 – Detroit has a couple pieces also running well. Ottawa has a leaky defense. It might be a night to grab pieces.
Leon Draisaitl (EDM – $7200) – L5 19.8/L10 14.4 – We keep finding Edmonton skaters running hot. I don’t know that I’d go all in with them, but Leon is also running hot. And, when Leon and Connor are both humming, they usually soak up a lot of the Oilers’ production.
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December 14th Sellers
DFS Defense
Oscar Klefbom (EDM – $5000) – L5 8.8/L10 16.4 – This moving average technique can really show you how hot or cold a guy is currently. Where Klef was a staple of ours just a short time ago, I wouldn’t recommend rostering him until he turns things around again.
Jacob Trouba (SPG – $4600) – L5 4.8/L10 11.1 – Another really cold one. Byf returned, Trouba disappeared.
DFS Center
Nicholas Backstrom (WAS – $7600) – L5 13.7/L10 17.8 – Up and down we go across the L10 moving average line. What goes up usually comes down….and Backstrom has.
Sidney Crosby (PIT – $8700) – L5 8.7/L10 17.0 – Case and point. Last week we couldn’t get enough of Sid the Kid. Now, I’d treat him like the plague. Hard pass.
NHL Wing
Blake Wheeler (WPG – $7600) – L5 15.9/L10 17.7 – It’s not as if Wheels completely went in the tank here. But, he is technically running below his L10 and indicating he might be a little overpriced at the moment. Do with that what you will, but WPG is in such a good spot tonight, I’m not afraid to run him out there anyway.
Max Pacioretty (VGK – $6300) – L5 8.7/L10 17.0 – Vegas is in a good spot, and you will hear people talk about VGK2. That said, Patches also picked up the GTD designation and bears watching. However, even if he plays, I want no part. Looking at the difference from L10 to L5 tells the story.
Final Recommendation
Let me know how you like this format in our coaching channels. I rely on your feedback for new concepts and to bring you information you feel makes you better players.
Remember, on larger slates, you are just going to need to take stands. No one can cover all the bases and find every key player from every game without a little luck. What we can do, however, is narrow our pool to the best possible choices and hope to hit on the right players in those top spots. Correlation is often the key to gpps. But, on larger slates, you can limit your stacking and really spread out for cash games and head to heads. For your upside contests in that cash lineup, consider 3man leagues or 10man leagues. Any cash lineup can beat 10 people, and you gain some upside for doing so. Smart money plays in DFS. Be smart.
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