Hello, my name is Mark Paquette but you may know me better as @dfsmlbweather or @nfldfsweather on twitter. As we get later and later in the NFL season, weather generally becomes a bigger factor. Week 15 was the 1st week with major weather impacts as breezy, wet weather may have helped cause low scoring games in NYG (17-0 TEN) and BAL (20-12 BAL). Here is an early look at Sunday’s weather map from the Weather Prediction Center:
Here is the expected precipitation in the Sunday through Tuesday time period:
Obviously, being this far out the weather forecast will change. Please keep in mind that in most NFL games the weather plays little/no role. You generally need an extreme weather event (ie. torrential rainfall, very strong winds, accumulating snow) to see meaningful impacts. We don’t really give a lot of credence to weather events. The exception being when The Weather Channel sends Jim Cantore out to report live from the stadium or we see cows flying around like in the movie Twister.
Games possibly impacted: The game with biggest risk weatherwise this weekend will be in Seattle as the Seahawks host the Chiefs. Rain and wind is in the current forecast. Games in New England, New York (Jets), and Philadelphia could see breezy conditions. We keep vigilant because the minute we let our guard down, Jim Cantore shows up and tries to talk football.
Games I am Looking to Target
Tampa Bay@Dallas: After a very disappointing game in Indianapolis Week 15 (the 1st time they were shutout since the early 2000s in Foxboro), they look to bounce back against a poor defense. I really like Ezekiel Elliott in this spot, against the 27th rated rushing defense in the NFL at 128.1 yards per game. An O/U of 46.
Houston@Philadelphia: For whatever reason, Philly seems to be a better team with Nick Foles at the helm. Philly’s playoff hopes are alive. Houston is fighting for seeding (currently the #2 seed with a bye in wildcard weekend, 1 Texan loss and the Patriots almost certain 2 wins means Houston would drop to the #3 seed). One of the higher O/U totals of the week at 46.
Minnesota@Detroit: We will soon find out whether last week’s offensive explosion (200 yards of offense in the 1st quarter!) by the Vikings was due to the new offensive coordinator (Kevin Stefanski) or was just an evening out of the odds from 2 consecutive stinkers against the Patriots and Seahawks. I think it is the former.
Grading Last Week’s Article
A+ grade:Derrick Henry (33.2 DK points, 29.74 FD), Matt Ryan (25.0 DK, 25.04 FD)
Failing grade: Saquon Barkely (9.6 DK, 7.6 FD); Rob Gronkowski (4.1 DK, 3.1 FD)
Week 15 DFS NFL Options by Position
Quarterbacks
Expensive – Deshaun Watson (6600 DK, 8000 FD): Alot of Watson’s production is directly tied to DeAndre Hopkins. And one of the top wideouts in the game needed help getting off the field after scoring a game winning touchdown late in the game on Saturday. So, if Hopkins is good to go, I love Watson. If not, using Watson is alot riskier. Philly has been torched all year through the air, giving up 298.7 yards per game (the 2nd worst mark in the league). According to the Army’s research station, the Eagles give up the 8th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. New feature this week: cash game grade: B, GPP grade: A
Mid-range – Baker Mayfield (6100 DK, 7700 FD): Death. Taxes. Pick on the Cincinnati defense. Well maybe it is not that predictable (Oakland didn’t have much luck last week) but you get the idea. Mayfield has had a couple of average at best games in a row after a stretch of games where it looked like he was going to demolish the rookie wall. But the Bengal passing defense that ranks 28th in the NFL at passing yards allowed (281) and 25th in TDs through the air (28) should cure any ills from an average game statistically at best last week in Denver. Cash game grade: B, GPP grade B+
I also really like Andrew Luck (6200 DK, 8200 FD) in this price range. TY Hilton gets another week to heal his bothersome ankle and the Colts need to keep on winning to get into the playoffs. The Giants are middle of the pack at passing yards per game allowed (14th at 237). The Colts average 7 more points at home than they do away. Cash game grade: B+, GPP grade C
Cheap – Kirk Cousins (6000 DK, 7600 FD): I am cheating a bit here with the pricing. This is a bit more expensive than a true cheap play should be. However, I am buying the change in offensive coordinator (mentioned above) after an only 1 game sample. Detroit gives up over 4 more points per game at home than on the road. The playbook seemed to be less conservative against the Dolphins than it has been the last few games and I would expect that to continue for a team that controls its own playoff destiny. Cash game grade: B, GPP grade A
Related reading: MNF Showdown Smackdown Saints vs. Panthers
Running Backs
Expensive – Ezekiel Elliott (9000 DK, 8800 FD): Elliott has a tremendous match-up this week against a soft Tampa Bay rushing defense. According to our tools, Tampa Bay is the 5th worst team in giving up fantasy points to opposing backs. Back at home where he has marginally better rushing stats but noticeably better receiving stats (he has almost 100 more receiving yards at home than on the road in the same amount of games) and with Dallas needing a victory here, expect big things. Cash game grade: A, GPP grade B
Mid-range – Dalvin Cook ($6900 DK, 7100 FD): Continuing with the theme of the Viking offense, let’s go to their featured running back Dalvin Cook. I saw several pre-game notes this past Sunday how a main part of new OC’s game plan was to unleash Cook. Did they ever! 32.3 DK points, 136 rushing yards on 19 attempts, 2 rushing TDs and 1 reception for 27 yards later, the change in philosophy was a success! Now we see it continues against a Detroit defense that is middle of the pack (16th at 115.4 yards) in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. Cash game grade: A-, GPP grade B+
Cheap – Jamaal Williams (5400 DK, 5800 FD): Aaron Jones was in a midst of a nice season. But this game of attrition caught up to him (sprained MCL took him out of Sunday’s game and his status is very much in doubt for week 16). In comes Mr. Williams. He responded nicely week 15 with 55 rushing yards (12 attempts), 42 receiving yards (4 receptions) and he reached paydirt on the ground. All of this against a stout Bears defense and in less than a full game. Now he travels to the much less impressive Jets rushing defense that is near bottom of the pack in both rushing TDs allowed (13) and rushing yards allowed per game (125.9). Cash game grade: B-, GPP grade A-
Related reading: Blande’s 6th man DK and FD NBA Advice
Wide Receivers
Expensive – DeAndre Hopkins (8600 DK, 8900 FD): See the writeup on Watson above. All the same stats apply. Of course, his health is key. No mention of the dreaded high ankle sprain, just the garden variety ankle sprain right now. Cash game grade: A, GPP grade B
Mid-range – Stefon Diggs (7400 DK, 7300 FD): Broken record here. I like the Vikings offense this week. Getting the trio of Cousins, Cook and Diggs is a priority for me this week. Diggs saw 7 targets week 15, converting them into 4 catches, including 1 for a TD. With a closer game expected this week, I would expect to see more balls in the air in the direction of Diggs. Cash game grade: B, GPP grade A-
Cheap – Antonio Callaway (3900 DK, 5100 FD): This young speedster is a favorite of Baker Mayfield. Since taking over earlier this season, Mayfield to Calloway targets have looked like this: 7, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5, 6, 2 and 7. You have to like the attention Calloway gets from Mayfield. Throw the pathetic Cincinnati defense into the mix, which Callaway already burned to 4-62-1 line earlier this season, and you have a superb spot. Cash game grade: B, GPP grade A
All sports featured with the Army. Specializing in the NFL here but if you want 4 coaches this Monday night, then the Army is the place for it!
Tight Ends
Expensive – Eric Ebron (5900 DK, 6500 FD): The Giants are approaching the rear of the NFL in giving up yards and reception to opposing tight ends. Eric Ebron leads all tight ends in TD receptions with 13. Seems like a good combination for Ebron, especially at home! Cash game grade: A, GPP grade B-
Mid-range – Trey Burton (4000 DK, 5900 FD): Since a mid-season disappearing act, Burton has 7, 5, 1 and 7 targets in his last 4 games respectively. He turned his 7 targets against Green Bay into 4 catches for 36 yards and a touchdown. On the season, San Francisco ranks near the bottom of touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends. Cash game grade: C+, GPP grade B+
Cheap – C.J. Uzomah (3200 DK, 5300 FD): Though C.J. did not do much with his 5 targets in week 15 against the Raiders (1 catch for 27 yards), the targets remained high. In his last handful of games, he has seen 5, 3, 6, 12 and 5 targets from Jeff Driskell. If you watched some of that game (I did, it was ugly) Driskell had a penchant of overthrowing the ball, missing his targets high and often. In comes 6 foot 6 inch Mr. Uzomah and the Cleveland defense, which gives up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Cash game grade: C, GPP grade A
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