Hello, my name is Mark Paquette but you may know me better as @dfsmlbweather or @nfldfsweather on twitter. As we get later and later in the NFL season, weather generally becomes a bigger factor. We have been lucky in dodging major weather problems thus far. Here is an early look at Sunday’s weather map from the Weather Prediction Center:
Here is the expected precipitation in the Sunday through Tuesday time period:
Obviously, being this far out the weather forecast will change. Please keep in mind that in most NFL games the weather plays little/no role. You generally need an extreme weather event (ie. torrential rainfall, very strong winds, accumulating snow) to see meaningful impacts. We don’t really give a lot of credence to weather events. The exception being when The Weather Channel sends Jim Cantore out to report live from the stadium or we see cows flying around like in the movie Twister.
Games possibly impacted: The game with biggest risk weatherwise this weekend will be in San Francisco as the 49ers host the Seahawks. Rain and wind is in the forecast right now. Games in New York City, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Baltimore could see a few showers and a bit of a breeze as well. We keep vigilant because the minute we let our guard down, Jim Cantore shows up and tries to talk football.
Note:
Though I just generally concentrate on the Sunday main slate in this piece, I wanted to bring up the potential for weather issues in the big Thursday night game in Kansas City between the Chiefs and the Chargers. This game could feature rain, wind and snow. The weather map for this game is below:
Games I am Looking to Target
New England @Pittsburgh: These two rivals with potent offenses tend to have shoot outs going against each other. Just go back almost a year to the date and see the score of 27 to 24 in the Patriots favor. New England’s defense has been getting torched on the road, giving up an average of 25 points. An O/U of 49.
Green Bay@Chicago: Aaron Rodgers had his best game of the year last week. Was it because of Atlanta’s horrific defense? Or was it because Rodgers felt more relaxed, more at peace with Mike McCarthy gone? As has been pointed out numerous times, Joe Philbin was the play caller under McCarthy so it isn’t like there is a new philosophy with the offense. One of the higher O/U totals of the week at 45-46.
Arizona@Atlanta: Both teams have mediocre defenses at best. Arizona is currently 16th in yards allowed per game, while Atlanta is 26th. Switching to points allowed, both teams worsen (Arizona is 21st and Atlanta is 29th). Atlanta tends to score more points at home (28 compared to 20 on the road). An O/U of 44.
Grading Last Week’s Article
A+ grade: Rob Gronkowski (27.7 DK, 20.7 FD points); Aaron Jones ( 19.6 DK, 18.1 FD)
Failing grade: Alvin Kamara(15.7 DK, 13.2 FD), Drew Brees (15.94 DK, 14.94 FD)
Week 15 DFS NFL Options by Position
Quarterbacks
Expensive – Ben Roethlisberger (6600 DK, 8600 FD): As I wrote above in the game blurb, I like the Steelers and Patriots game alot. So start with the QBs in that game! On the road, the Patriots defense is below average, giving up 402.1 yards per game. The Steelers offense is much more proficient at home, scoring an average of 34.5 points per game (compare that to 22.9 points per game on the road). Big Ben left Sunday’s game with an injury (he did return for the last 2 drives of the game). I highly doubt that Ben misses this game, as his cracks at Tom Brady are probably coming to an end shortly.
Honorable mention: Matt Ryan (6100 DK, 8400 FD): My theme was home/road splits with Ben, so why stop there? Atlanta averages 8 more points at home than on the road and Arizona’s defense gives up 80 more yards per game on the road than at home. I also like Aaron Rodgers (5700 DK, 8100 FD): I think a new coach may have lifted a burden off of Rodgers shoulders. He gets a tough matchup against the Bears though.
Mid-range – Tom Brady (5900 DK, 7900 FD): Tom Terrific owns the Steelers. Brady is 8-2 against the Steelers in the regular season for his career, including 6-2 at Heinz Field, where Sunday’s matchup will be played. Brady’s career passer rating (115) against the Steelers is so good he could throw 12 straight interceptions before his rating would fall below 100. Brady has failed to record a passer rating of 100 just three times in 12 career games vs. the Steelers. He surpassed 120 as a rating in 6 of those games.
Cheap – Derek Carr (5400 DK, 6800 FD): A theme of this article the past few weeks is pick on Cincinnati’s defense. They are at the bottom of the NFL in both points per game, total yards per game and give up the most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing QBs. Derek Carr has scored 15 or more DK points in 3 of his last 4 games.
Related reading: Short Slate (Monday and Thursday) Debate
Running Backs
Expensive – Saquon Barkley (9400 DK, 9400 FD): Barkley is playing at a level where he is basically matchup proof. Tennessee is middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed (16th at 115.2 yards per game). Overall, the Titans are 6th in the league allowing fantasy points to opposing running backs. So this is not the easiest matchup in the world for the almost surefire rookie of the year. I love Barkley’s floor and his performance at home. Barkley has only been below 22 DK points at home once this year. Overall, he has been north of 32 DK points in 3 of his last 4 games.
Mid-range – Aaron Jones ($6600 DK, 7500 FD): Jones looks like the running back Green Bay has been searching for. LA’s decision to not use Todd Gurley (only 11 touches on the night) against a tough Chicago defense was baffling after the way Saquon Barkley torched them the week before (125 yards on the ground, 21 more through the air). Jones has reached a minimum of 15 DK points in each of his last 5 games.
Cheap – Derrick Henry (5000 DK, 6100 FD): After Thursday night’s game of the ages, let’s go back to the former Heisman Award winner. The Giants are 22nd in rushing yards allowed at 121.8 yards per game. Henry seems to be getting into a groove as the regular season nears its end. Honorable Mention: Theo Riddick (4400 DK, 5500 FD): Riddick has 32 catches in the past 6 games. Until Kerryon Johnson returns he will continue to get plenty of targets in the passing game.
Related reading: Blande’s 6th man DK and FD NBA Advice
Wide Receivers
Expensive – Antonio Brown (8500 DK, 8600 FD): I love the pairing of Ben and Brown when they are at home. Brown gets to go up against a soft Patriots secondary that gives up points and yards on the road.
Mid-range – Julian Edelman (7200 DK, 7200 FD): Edelman and Brady have terrific chemistry between them. In a game where points are expected to pile up, Edleman’s penchant for targets (double digits in 4 of the last 6 games) will lead to yards and receptions against a Steelers secondary that is middle of the pack when it comes to fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers.
Cheap – Dante Pettis ($4400 DK, 5500 FD): Pettis seems to have great chemistry with Nick Mullins. He has scored a TD in 3 consecutive games. With injuries and absences, Pettis will continue to be on the field on 80+% of snaps. Watch the weather here, rain and wind would likely hurt this rookie speedster.
Tight Ends
Expensive – Eric Ebron (5900 DK, 6500 FD): The Cowboys give up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Eric Ebron leads all tight ends in TD receptions with 12. Seems like a good recipe for Ebron getting looks in the red zone.
Mid-range – Rob Gronkowski (5800 DK, 6900 FD): Going back to the Gronk well here again (sounds like I might need a dose of penicillin after doing that!) Gronk dominates the Steelers. Just look at his line from last year’s game: 9 catches, 168 yards and 1 dominant 2 point conversion. Besides falling down in the Miami Miracle, Gronk has looked healthier the past 3 games and his performances have backed that up: 14.6, 5.6 and 27.7 DK points since returning after the week 11 bye.
Cheap – Vernon Davis (3200 DK, 5300 FD): With Jordan Reed being injured in week 14 and his week 15 status unknown, Davis would be a target hog if Reed misses this game against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has given up the 2nd most TDs to opposing tight ends at 7.
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