It’s a Mad World
Alright, DFSA, let’s get our minds right for this wild Week 17 of DFS. It’s going to be pure mayhem on Sunday as some teams will protect their investments and pull starters in the middle of the game, outright sit them, and pack up their bags early causing bizarre scores and results. Some teams have nothing to play for, some have very little to play for, and some are fighting for not only playoff position but to make the playoffs or play spoiler.
This week is like Mad Max, but NFL DFS style. It’s certainly not for the faint of heart and my normal playbook would not suffice for a week like this. Instead of my normal player pool and sample lineups, I am going to give you an evergreen approach type article of putting my strategies and thoughts on paper and allowing the reader to formulate their own positions.
Let’s get it!
Who Cares?
There are a handful of teams that need to show up in a big way this weekend. Who can we focus on with the knowledge that the players involved will receive their normal workloads?
Bears @ Vikings
In order for Chicago to win a first-round bye week, the Bears have to win while the Rams need to lose at home to the 49ers. I cannot see that scenario happening and I am beginning to think the Bears don’t think so either. The Vegas line opened at Bears as 3.0 point underdogs and has since moved to 6.5 points. Vegas thinks the Bears are going to rest Mitchell Trubisky and his shoulder, at least that is my assumption. I, however, am completely off all Bears players and their defensive unit.
The Vikings need to win in order to clinch a Wild Card spot. The Vikings have been running the ball like crazy since firing John DeFilippo after Week 13. Since then, Cousins isn’t throwing the ball a ton and we’ve seen Dalvin Cook get a ton of touches as of late as the offense is shifting (39 touches in last two weeks combined. He is a running back I think we can rely on this week for a healthy workload and hopefully lower ownership because people see the Bears defense on the other side. I don’t mind the idea of stacking Dalvin with the Vikings defense, as I think it will take an extremely low-owned and very unique approach for tournaments in order to win some of these large field tournaments on a wild week like this.
Colts @ Titans
These two teams are facing off with the winner making the playoffs and the loser eating chips and salsa on his couch after his kids go to bed like Donuts’ does every single night of his life. What a loser. I also just talked in third person, super loser.
Nonetheless, these two teams have players we want to target, although both defenses are playing extremely well as of late so I won’t target them heavily at all. This game will have a playoff atmosphere and likely be low scoring. That puts me on some of the touchdown dependent guys, because while I don’t think we see many touchdowns, yards, or points, I do think that the scores are going to be concentrated on a few select players. Marlon Mack, Derick Henry, and Eric Ebron are my targets from this game. They are all legit red zone threats and can score multiple times in a game.
49ers @ Rams
I think this one gets sloppy and ugly quick. The Rams are going to ball out from the get go and secure that first-round bye and then I think they’ll sit their starters with a lead in the second half. It’s in front of the home crowd and everyone knows what’s at stake. I doubt we see Gurley and if we do I don’t think he plays a ton at all. I love, absolutely love, C.J. Anderson. He ran for 167 yards on 20 carries and scored a touchdown in Week 16. Goff only threw the ball 24 times and I doubt we see him throw it many more than that. They need to protect Woods, Cooks, and Goff along with Gurley so I doubt we can rely on them too much.
The 49ers are trying to get George Kittle the single-season record for yards by a tight end. He’s currently 99 yards behind NFL record holder, Rob Gronkowski (1,327). However, Kittle is also second in the league behind Travis Kelce in tight end receiving yards. Either I messed up my research or everyone is narrative focused here. While Kittle is going to get peppered, he’s still just a pivot off of Travis Kelce, who I think will be one of the best plays of the entire day with a massive ceiling. This is going to be the week the Chiefs feature him again and recency bias and game log watchers likely will not be as heavy on Kelce as they should be. He leads the NFL in scoring games over 20 points at the position and has topped 30 multiple times. I love me some Travis Kelce.
Raiders @ Chiefs
The Chiefs need to win if they want to lock up the number 1 seed in the AFC. They have to do so by beating the Raiders at home. Patrick Mahomes and the aforementioned Kelce are going to be my favorite stack on the entire slate. The AFC is so packed tightly at the top that if the Chiefs somehow lose, they will possibly end up a Wild Card team instead of the number one seed. Insane. I like the Chiefs defense stacked with them as well for the team stack and beatdown approach, ha!
Derek Carr is also in play and I don’t need anybody to stack with him. He’s cheap enough and will have a decent matchup where he is a fine MME option and if you do want to stack him get funky and put in Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill with him. The theory being; the Chiefs are scoring via Hill/Kelce and Carr has to chuck the ball 45 times to come from behind and keep pace. Long shot? Yes, definitely. But it’s Week 17. Get used to it.
Chargers @ Broncos
The Chargers need to win and KC to lose in order for them to get a first-round bye. Otherwise, if KC and Patriots win their games, the Chargers are going to be the three seed. I like Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen and will have them in my player pool. I also don’t want either of them without the other. I think if one blows up the other did as well but not separate. I want nothing to do with the Broncos.
Browns @ Ravens
The Ravens can clinch the AFC North with a win over the visiting Brownies. They’re currently a half-game ahead of Pittsburgh. Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon, and the coaching staff will continue to make all of them worth very little to me. They just keep stealing production off one another.
On the Browns side, I love me some Nick Chubb as he’s closing in on 1,000 yards rushing and I think the Browns will try to bump the Ravens out of Division winner to an onlooker. The Bakey Mayfield led Browns are playing some inspired football, but outside of Nick Chubb, I want nothing to do with anyone here due to the lack of plays and time of possession.
Eagels @ Redskins
The Eagles have to win their game and hope the Vikings lose to the Bears. If they win and the Vikings also win, then the Eagles are eliminated still. Bummer to all you Eagles fans.
I think Nick Foles to Zach Ertz is an amazing stack and I actually think both are in play without being stacked. Unlike Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen, both players hold value without the other exploding due to the spread the ball around nature of the offense. Foles is still very cheap and has shown immense upside. They will need to throw the ball to move it on Sunday.
Jets @ Patriots
Unfortunately, the Patriots offense has been pretty vanilla as of late. Sony Michel is getting nearly 20 touches per game and outside of last week, had not been scoring touchdowns. James White scored last week as well but has seemingly dissapeared as of late, and Rex Burkhead received 13 touches last week as well. It’s a muddy backfield and with the running backs receiving a combined 39 touches for 296 yards and 2 touchdowns, there isn’t a ton left for the passing game. Julian Edelman received 10 targets and hauled in 6 for 70 yards and a single touchdown. I love Edelman though, because if we look at his target share it was a crazy high 40% in the first game without Josh Gordon. Julian had 10 of Brady’s 24 total passes thrown to him. That’s elite opportunity at a volatile position. Give me a nice healthy scoop of that handsome man and his small but reliable hands.
Sony Michel is certainly in play and likely hits the 20 touch mark, as he’s average slightly under 18 touches per game since Week 11. He also racked up 133 yards and a score against the Jets in Week 12. Yes, please! I like the combo of Michel and Dalvin Cook this week on FanDuel, as I think they have solid touch volume and touchdown equity without costing an arm and a leg.
Jaguars @ Texans
The Houston Texans are a win away from clinching the AFC South. All they have to do is beat the Jaguars and at this point in the season, that’s not a tough hurdle to clear. I would imagine the Texans go pretty run-heavy in this game and I honestly don’t want exposure to anything at all in this game. I think it’s just a boring, hands off scenario, outside of using the Texans defense.
Bengals @ Steelers
Okay, here we go. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are going to absolutely explode against the Bengals defense that has given up the second most actual points per game in the NFL this season. The Steelers need to win in order to even have a shot at the playoffs. After/if they win, they still need the Browns to beat the Ravens. While they can’t control their destiny entirely, they can certainly give themselves hope. I expect AB to get loose again after a massive Week 16 performance.
Antonio has had ridiculous splits over his last 5 home games, too. In those game, Brown has averaged 6.4 receptions for 103.8 yards receiving and 1.4 touchdowns per game. What a massive floor and ceiling combination! I will likely own Antonio Brown in more contests than any other wide receiver on the slate because I think it will take an explosive game from a volatile position to win this week.
Steelers defense is absolutely in play as well and I think you’ll see an insanely aggressive team that shows up ready to roll on Sunday.
Who Does Not Care?
Panthers @ Saints
Neither team has anything to play for and likely will be sitting anybody that matters. The Saints locked up the number one seed and they’ve said that Teddy Bridgewater is starting for them. I think Teddy is a phenomenal play, as the coaching staff and team love him and he’s going to want to show the NFL that he still has what it takes to be a starting quarterback as he continues to come back from a horrendous knee injury. Teddy is going to be one of my higher owned quarterbacks of the week because I want the salary relief on both FanDuel and DraftKings to pay up for people like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Antonio Brown.
Along with Teddy, I want the Saints defense because the Panthers are legit rolling out a team that resembles a pre-season Week 4 roster. It’s gross and lacks talent everywhere, especially if Christian McCaffrey sits or doesn’t get a full workload as they protect one of their most valuable assets heading into the off-season after a dissapointing 2018 season.
Lions @ Packers
Both teams are likely to allow their starters to play in this game. However, I am wondering if the game gets out of hand early if they both don’t just pack up and sit their studs, especially the most important two – Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers. I am fading them both due to the concern.
I will not be fading Kenny Golladay or Jamaal Williams, both who have elite matchups and workloads likely. Williams gets the Lions defense that has been absolutely gashed over the last 8 weeks by opposing running backs (over 135 total yards per game). Golladay is an outside threat and the Packers have been miserable in containing them this season. I like them both as one-off options in your Big Ben and Antonio Brown or Mahomes to Kelce stacks.
Cardinals @ Seahawks
Mike Davis is a sneaky play this week as the Seahawks are locked into their Wild Card spot and I suspect they rest Russell Wilson and Chris Carson in a meaningless game. I think Mike Davis is going to thrash and bull horn his way to over 100 yards and multiple scores. He’s one of my favorite GPP options on the entire slate and a key to victory for me personally. The Cardinals have allowed opposing teams to rush for over 150 yards to four teams since Week 11 (Raiders, Chargers, Falcons, Rams). I doubt Seattle throws very much and you can probably add rookie Rashaad Penny if he’s active this week. It’s a good week for him to showcase what he has for next season and hopefully carve out a role within the franchise.
Cowboys @ Giants
I am fading the Cowboys entirely, as their locked into the playoffs as the 4th seed. Their starters likely won’t touch the field and if they do it will be very little. Saquon Barkley is going to get 25 touches in this game as I think the organization has to save face for selecting him over some of these nice looking quarterbacks in this draft. He’s in the running for Offensive Rookie of the Year, which means he needs an explosive performance to keep pace with Baker Mayfield. Recency bias is strong and Mayfield in a bad matchup against the Ravens and Barkley exploding against a careless Cowboys defense could help him lock it up.
Dolphins @ Bills
Josh Allen belongs in your player pool this week due to the matchup of terribles and meaningless teams. I think the Bills really open up the offense (sarcasm) and let this kid throw the ball all over the yard. Honestly, the Bills have been trying but his team sucks, he sucks, his receivers suck. But nonetheless, DFS doesn’t need talented players to produce results. Opportunity and cost are king. Allen, Zay Jones, and Robert Foster are all great options and stack worthy with Josh. I don’t mind stacking all 3 of them as a nice low-cost stack that will allow you to go up and get Saquon, Antonio, and Kelce!
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Yikes, I worry about this one. I think Julio won’t paly or receive a lot of snaps. I think Matty Ice (Ryan) might not play the whole game either. I think Jameis Winston will throw the ball 45-50x as they try to figure out what the heck to do with this guy in the off-season. Jameis is a great option this week. I love me some Chris Godwin and Mike Evans as well. Not so high on Humphries this week because I want the touchdown equity of the other two.
Now What?
Alright, so that was a full game-by-game breakdown. I suggest you use my player pool for 20-max entries. It’s fairly simple and as long as your exposure settings aren’t too strict then the pool works just fine. I ran it a few times without issue.
If you are rolling out 150 max, I want you to use Geek’s player picks list because it’s friggin SICK and I love it this week. I’ll be using my tight pool for 20 max and his pool + my guys for 150 max.