Where Do I Begin?
Over the last few weeks, I have been using a smaller and smaller player pool. Recently, I have been making player pools in NBA that I really hadn’t ever done before with any success. That’s changed dramatically with the updates to the DS, the behind the scenes work by Boomer on the projection, the Research Station work by CeeGee and BenJammin, and the team in general that works hard on the tools. I’ve continued to create player pools for NFL as well, but in a different way. My player pool has looked dramatically smaller by following this process, however, it has actually allowed my lineups to have those “runners” where a lineup pulls away from the crowd and rockets up the tournament standings, rather than moving up and down the standings as a herd.
- I uncheck all players
- I add in players I want (i.e. Big Ben and Luck)
- I set the global exposure to 50% because NFL is so volatile
- I run it on three uniques
- Once I have my “pool” of guys I want an abundance of in my lineups, I then have been adding fringe type players or plays that other coaches have labeled as great plays.
- Let’s say Geek has a few running backs on his player picks list that I previously hadn’t added into my player pool. I would add in those players and set their maximum exposure at 3-7%, depending on how I feel about the reasoning. Out of 150 created lineups, the maximum amount of lineups they’d be in would be 5-10 as that is what the percentages work out to be. This allows me to create my player pool that will dominate the lineups but also allow other plays to mix in a little bit that doesn’t carry my personal bias.
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Week 16 Playbook Player Pool for FanDuel and DraftKings
*EDIT* I am adding Travis Kelce to the player pool along with Tyreke Hill. Both were meant to be added with Patrick Mahomes on FanDuel. Kelce and Hill are only to be added on DraftKings (but not Mahomes) for the full slate since I’ve had a few people ask about it. I wasn’t aware people were playing these so I added a few of the guys 🙂
Stacks on Stacks on Stacks
1. Dak Prescott + Amari Cooper + Adam Humphries
Prescott is in a nice bounce back spot after letting down a significant amount of owners who not only had him plugged in during Week 15 but also had Amari Cooper and some of the Colts offense on the other side hoping for a shootout. Well, the Cowboys got shutout for the first time in 15 seasons and the entire Dallas squad looked wretched. A meeting with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be just what the doctor ordered. By stacking Amari Cooper with Prescott we raise our scoring ceiling immensely. However, we can make it a bit more volatile and raise the scoring ceiling a bit as well by adding Adam Humphries on the other side in the hopes that Tampa keeps the game competitive through the air. The Cowboys have done well against outside wide receivers this season making Humphries my preferred “run it back” stacking option.
2. Matt Ryan + Julio Jones
Ryan has been fantastic as of late when he is favorited and when he is on the road. When he is a favorite, he averages 25.42 DraftKings points per game. When he is an underdog he, averages just 18.88 DraftKings points per game. Over the last four road games, Matt has scored 32.00, 24.50, 25.68, and 21.48 DraftKings points. Also going for Ryan is the fact that when his team has won this season, he has scored at least 18.30 points in each game. He has a massive 1.91 fantasy point per target rate and is averaging 20.1 DraftKings points per game on the season. He’s picked it up a little bit over the last three games, scoring 3.03 points per target and averaging 0.43 points per snap. Matched up against a difficult corner, James Bradberry, I think Julio still gets the best of him as I suspect the Panthers won’t come out ready to play after losing Cam Newton to a shoulder injury. I can see them mentally and physically shutting down for the season and protecting their body for 2019 and guaranteed roster bonuses.
3. Matt Ryan + Julio Jones + Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey shredded the Falcons in their Week 2 matchup. He managed to haul in 14 receptions on 15 targets for 102 yards receiving in that contest. He’s been a much better runner as of late, too, rushing for over 100 yards in two out of the last three games. He’s also been a great threat in the red zone, scoring nine touchdowns inside the 20 in the last eight games. By throwing him in the stack with Ryan and Julio, we effectively raise our scoring ceiling but lower our floor. I believe that McCaffrey won’t get shutdown even though the Panthers season is kaput, as Christian has a plethora of salary escalators that will earn him a lot of money over the last two games if he meets the criteria necessary.
4. Andrew Luck + Eric Ebron + Saquon Barkley
The Colts are implied to score 28.5 points and are massive 10.0 point favorites over the Giants. Prior to the 23-0 win over the Dallas Cowboys, Ebron had scored 16.50, 16.20, 21.50, and 28.10 DraftKings point in the last four games. He managed to score a touchdown in three of those games (totaling four scores) and hauled in 10 receptions for 81 yards in the one game that he didn’t score. Luck has been superb this season and although the offense has slowed down a bit over the last few weeks, they are at home where they score more points per game and where Luck has been electric through the air to both Ebron and T.Y. Hilton. If Luck catches on fire and throws multiple touchdowns for the 10th time this season, then you better believe Barkley is going to rack up garbage time stats or receptions while the Giants are in comeback mode.
5. Patrick Mahomes + Travis Kelce + A healthy wide receiver from Seattle (Baldwin preferred, but if he’s out, I am going with Tyler Lockett with confidence!)
Whenever we can get Mahomes at lower ownership than normal I want to take advantage. We have seen this offense slow down slightly and the big play is not happening as frequently. Some of this is due to the injuries on the team, some of the issues are that it is later in the season and the weather is turning cold, and some is due to the fact that there is a lot of film on opposing teams right now. Whatever the reason, Mahomes and Kelce will be a 6-8% owned stack at best, and the ceiling of this pair is likely around 60 combined points. That is a GPP winning type stack and if Baldwin is healthy he’s going to keep scoring touchdowns, and whenever he’s not active Tyler Lockett scores touchdowns. In fact, not a single game this season has gone by without one of them scoring a touchdown and it pretty much has followed the trend of whether Baldwin is active or not as to who will score. Take advantage of the negative recency bias and target this for the full slate or any slate that include this contest.
6. Andrew Luck + T.Y. Hilton + Eric Ebron + Saquon Barkley
This type of stack is to be used in only the largest of GPP’s. It’s inherently extremely volatile because you’re needing a shootout or at the very least an explosive performance from the trio of Colts in order to have Barkley rack up receptions during comeback mode and hopefully a couple of touchdowns. I think stacks like this work best on PPR sites like DraftKings because they have higher floor and ceiling combinations due to the full point per reception. Luckily enough, all four players have solid touchdown equity as well as PPR value, making them an ideal large game stack. In smaller field tournaments, big stacks like this are not overly necessary to separate yourself from the field in the standings. Leave this for large field only!
7. Baker Mayfield + Nick Chubb
This is a touchdown stack. I love these. The Browns are favorites this week and while both of them are potentially priced at value, if the Browns surpass their implied team total of 27.0 points or cover the 10 point favorite spread, then Mayfield and Chubb likely had themselves quite the day. Mayfield has thrown touchdowns in 2 of the last 4 games and Chubb should get plenty of volume if the Browns are out in front early against the stumbling Bengals. I also can foresee a few extra possessions due to turnovers from the sloppy Bengals offense that has not protected the football as of late. The theory here is that Baker and Nick soak up 4/5 touchdowns between the two of them, giving us a massive performance out of two players priced below the elite level. Due to both of them needing touchdowns to exceed value, I think this stack is best used on FanDuel only. Not all stacks are created equal and some are very site dependent. This is one of them.
8. Nick Foles + Alshon Jeffery (added to player pool on both sites after practicing Friday)
Nick Foles is just way too cheap on DraftKings. We’ve seen him do well in a starting role and he can rack up some stats in a hurry. At sub-5k pricing, we have to take advantage and use the extra salary to target some of those high priced running backs and wide receivers to raise our scoring floor and ceiling. Alshon has 17 targets over the last two weeks, netting 14 receptions for 210 yards receiving and 1 touchdown. He’s looking healthy and starting to receive solid volume. We have a great opportunity to stack Nick Foles ($4,600) and Alshon Jeffery ($5,300) for just $9,900 total and a very sold floor and ceiling combination due to their price tags. They don’t break the bank and can return super value if they hook up for a touchdown. At just a hair under 10k, we now have so much salary left over to plug in some other high profile players.
9. Robby Anderson + Dante Pettis + Alshon Jeffery
Okay, so clearly these guys are not on the same team nor are they even in the same game. However, I like this “Group” for DraftKings GPP’s this week, as all of them should serve as their teams’ priority target and have decent matchups. They are all cheap, ranging from $4,300 – $5,300 in price. By plugging this group in at WR, an already volatile position, we protect our investment in this lineup by using cheaper guys that won’t burn us with an average game. Meanwhile, with just so few dollars plugged into this lineup, we can go nuts on the running backs at the RB, RB, and FLEX positions. If we add Nick Foles in there then it’s just unfair the amount of talent we can plug in. It’s an all or nothing approach because all players will be volatile outside of our running back selections, however, if we are playing GPPs and not going for first and just happy with 2-3x ROI, then what are we even playing GPPs for? Just go play double-ups or triple-ups if you’re fine with 2-3x ROI.
OR
10. MME Advice
If you made it this far you are rewarded with the last screen shot above showing the Saints defense and now a little addition to the MME player pool. It looks like JuJu Smith-Schuster might actually miss this Sunday football game. First off, the Saints defense BELONGS IN YOUR POOL AND I AM ADDING THEM. Second, they are actually second in the NFL in scoring production of games of 8 or more points behind only the Bears. On top of that, SAINTS DEF is racking up 3 + sacks per game, Ben turns the ball over more and gets sacked more on the road, and the Saints DEF has double-digit points in 4 out of the last 5 games. They are also dirt cheap across the industry. Elite level GPP winning play as a very strong leverage option against the higher ownership that Big Ben might have.
Lift your roster global max cap to 60-70%. With smaller player pools this late in the season and clear cut plays, we don’t need to hedge our investments so much by capping it at 50%. Get a little nutty with some constructions and shoot for the stars. Don’t settle for 2x ROI in such risky entries, otherwise just go play double-ups if you’re happy with 2x ROI.
EXPOSURES
I plan on having a global max exposure cap at 50%. Everything for MME is still more game theory and correlation than most optimal approach. It’s projecting scenarios and hypothetical situations, ownership, and production. Anything goes and I want to make sure I have a pulse if some of the higher owned guys “dud”. Make sure you lower the cap on guys you don’t want a ton of but know you probably should have some of. If the DS pumps out too high of a percentage on a player, don’t ask the staff if 90% is okay, just lower the individual exposure on him. We really don’t want to do that on anybody ever unless we are having to make an all or nothing decision on mega-chalk.
Two Minute Warning
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