Welcome once again fight fans! This Saturday we have a 12 fight card from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. After this card we have a weekend off for the Holidays before we end the year off with a great card. Payouts are smaller for this card and for that reason I am playing tournaments lighter. I will mostly be attacking this card in cash games (my preference is H2H’s).
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As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC On Fox 31 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
K. Lee (-325) 9k vs Iaquinta (+295) 7.2k
Lee is a solid striker (4.06 Significant Strikers per minute) and is a very good grappler. He is athletic and has solid takedowns (TD’s)(3.33 per fight). Iaquinta is a tough fighter. He is a good striker (4.28 SS’s per minute) and has decent power.
Vegas is expecting this fight to end Inside The Distance (-260). But, the fight last more than 2 1/2 rounds is (-122).
For cash games I think stacking this fight is very, much in play after seeing that. In 3 rounds I think Iaquinta should be able to get in the neighborhood of 25 draftkings points. Lee is the best value play and has highest projection according to our DFS Army exclusive Research Station. Typically we want to get 120+ combined draftkings points in a stack and that’s very likely here.
In tournament’s Lee is 1 of my top plays on the entire card and I will personally have at least 50% exposure to him in tournaments. I will have some small exposure to Iaquinta in them (1-2 lineups) if, I am making 20+. Overall my preferred play is Lee.
Adams (-430) 9.5k vs de la Rocha (+380) 6.7k
Adams is making his UFC debut here. He is good striker and has solid cardio. De la Rocha is a tough fighter. He does tend to leave himself very open to being hit because he often leaves his chin wide open.
This fight has the highest ITD prop on the entire card (-685. In this scenerio Adams is the most likely doing so (-290 to win ITD).
Adams is the most expensive fighter on the entire card. Let’s see if our Research Station thinks he can pay off that salary.
It most definetly does. Adams is a great play in all formats. I will have plenty of exposure to him in tournaments and will most likely be one of my higher owned fighters in the 9k range. I don’t have much interest in de la Rocha at all and will likely be fading him. Overall my preferred play is Adams.
Grant (-280) 9.4k vs Ottow (+255) 6.8k
Grant is another fighter making his UFC debut on this card. He is a good striker and has ok power. Ottow is decent striker (3.05 SS’s per minute). Other than that he honestly isn’t that good overall.
Vegas likes this to end fairly early with an ITD prop of (-230). The likely beneficiary being Grant (-155 to win ITD).
I know Grant’s ITD prop isn’t as sexy as Adams are. But, hear me out for a 2nd.
He has a great chance to win and that 71% win rate is only 7% lower than Adams and he is $100 cheaper on draftkings. I know that doesn’t seem like a lot. But, on this card where we are looking for value he is a great cash play if you like your overall cash build and find yourself short $100 to get to Adams. He also makes for a solid tournament play as well. Ottow doesn’t intrigue me much at all. I will probably only use him as a hedge since I will have a good amount of exposure to Grant. My preferred play is Grant.
Gordon (-120) 8.6k vs Silva (+110) 7.6k
Gordon is a good striker (6.68 SS’s per minute) and has solid TD’s (3.41 per fight). Silva is an ok striker (3.07 SS’s per minute) and has solid power.
Vegas is leaning on this fight going to decision (-135).
Now just looking at the numbers Silva looks like a solid value play in cash games at his draftkings price tag. I can see if you want to go that route and its very viable. I will most likely be siding with Gordon here. I think his floor is safer. Mainly because he lands at a higher rate and he can rack up the TD’s. For that reason I prefer him in cash.
In tournaments I want to show you something interesting from our Research Station.
Even with the line movement in favor of Silva. Gordon is still popping off as the 4th best value play on the entire card. Plus now with this line movement I think many will side with Silva. Gordon at reduced ownership and his TD and wrestling upside. Sign me up please! I like Gordon in all formats to sum it up. I will have exposure to Silva as well but, not as much as Gordon. Overall my preferred play is Gordon.
Klose (-245) 9.3k vs Green (+225) 6.9k
Klose is a good striker (3.35 SS’s per minute) and has good TD’s (2 per fight). Green is a tough fighter and a decent striker (5.01 SS’s per minute).
This fight is very, likely to go to decision (-290).
For that reason alone I have very, little interest in Klose. In a decision win it’s unlikely he pays off his 9.3k salary. Green does interest me some (mostly in cash). I like his striking output and think he can easily get 25-30 draftkings points in a decision loss. So, while I do think Klose wins the fight Green is my preferred play.
Oliveira (-305) 8.9k vs Miller (+275) 7.3k
Oliveira is a decent striker (3.04 SS’s per minute). He has good TD’s (2.87 per fight) and good submissions. Miller is a decent striker (2.79 SS’s per minute) and has ok submissions.
Vegas likes this to end early with an ITD prop of (-350). If, that’s the case they like Oliveira to do so (-179 to win ITD).
The main issue we have to concern ourselves with Oliveira is he has been known to quit in fights. I think a lot of people will feel this way in contests. I am a believer in that he stays focused here and gets the job done.
The Research Station tends to agree with me here. I think Oliveira is playable in all formats. If I am wrong with my take here I will have exposure to Miller in tournaments as well. My preferred play is Oliveira but, if you are on the side of him reverting back to his quitting ways I have no issues if you go heavier on Miller.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Hermansson (-145) 8.8k vs Meerschaert (+135) 7.4k
Hermansson is a good striker (4.49 SS’s per minute) and has solid top game (ground and pound). Meerschaert is a decent striker (3.96 SS’s per minute) and has good submissions.
Vegas expects this to end early (-215 ITD). With both fighters having decent odds (Hermansson +155 and Meerschaert +230).
Even before I looked at these numbers I was considering Hermansson as my preferred play. I think he could go fairly low owned in this price range. I like him even more at a reduced ownership and will look to get around 30-40% exposure to him in tournaments. I will have exposure to Meerschaert as well but, not more than 20-25%. Overall my preferred play is Hermansson.
Ige (-175) 8.5k vs Griffin (+155) 7.7k
Ige is an ok striker (3.79 SS’s per minute) and is solid on the ground. Griffin is making his UFC debut. He is an aggresive fighter. He is a good striker and has solid cardio.
Vegas is siding with this fight ending ITD with a prop of (-155)
I don’t have a strong read in this fight. With the finishing prop both fighters warrant some exposure (20-25% with both). My preferred play is Griffin just because he is cheaper and we need to find dogs to get to the value up top.
Milstead (-135) 8.7k vs Rodriguez (+115) 7.5k
Milstead is an ok striker (3.90 SS’s per minute) and has decent power. Rodriguez is a solid striker (2.67 SS’s) and has ok power
Vegas likes this to end early (-180 ITD.
Rodriguez automatically pops up as a solid value play for his price (I am personally not going there but, he is viable in cash). I will likely have more exposure to Rodriguez because he is cheaper but, will have exposure to Milstead as well. Overall this is a solid fight to get exposure to in tournaments.
Hooker (-120) 8.2k vs Barboza (+100) 8k
Hooker is a good striker (4.02 SS’s per minute) and has solid power. Barboza is a solid striker (3.64 SS’s per minute) and has good power.
Vegas is leaning on this fight ending ITD (-140)
This is our mid range fight on this card and with such tight odds lets take a look at the Research Station.
Both are solid plays. I actually prefer Barboza. This is mostly an ownership play and he is $200 cheaper. I will have shares of Hooker as well but, my preferred play is Barboza.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Font (-155) 8.4k vs Pettis (+145) 7.8k
Fight is -170 to go to decision. Typically Pettis doesn’t score very good in wins and he often limits the scoring of his opponents.
Cummings (-305) 9.1k vs Smith (+275) 7.1k
Fight is -160 to go to decision. Cummings is priced to high and I like everyone more around him. Smith is in same boat in the fact I like other dogs around him more.
If any of my thoughts change I will post them in chat.
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