Welcome back fight fans! This weekend we have a solid 13 fight card taking place in Toronto, Canada. This is one of the best cards top to bottom this year. We have 2 title fights on this card and I love this card from a draftkings perspective in both cash and tournaments.
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As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC 231 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Holloway (-110) 8.3k vs Ortega (-110) 7.9k
In cash games I really like the idea of stacking this fight. Currently this fight is a pick em. I think with potentially 5 rounds of action we can expect 120+ draftkings points out of the stack and I am just locking them in my cash lineup.
In tournaments obviously both fighters are in play. Let’s look at this matchup closer to figure out how to attack this main event.
Holloway is a solid striker and is very high output (6.2 Significant Strikers per minute). Ortega is a solid striker (3.65 SS’s per minute) and has good power. His submission game is very dangerous especially his guillotine. Once he gets that locked in it generally spells the end for his opponent.
Vegas is leaning on this fight ending Inside The Distance (ITD) with a prop of (-170). In this scenerio it’s most likely via Oetega (+136 to win ITD). In the chance this does make it to the judges score cards it than swings in Holloway’s favor (+218 to win via decision). With both fighters priced right in the midrange on draftkings I think this is a fight to get heavy exposure to. My preferred play is Holloway mainly because I think Ortega will be more popular. Currently I am leaning towards having my ownership be 60% Holloway and 40% Oetega. If, you favor Ortega than go ahead and reverse that. If you want to be conservative than just go 50-50 on both. I will have 100% exposure to this fight in my tournament lineups. Whomever wins should be in the optimal lineup. My preferred play is Holloway.
Shevchenko (-340) 8.3k vs Jedzejczyk (+280) 6.8k
Shevchenko is a solid striker (3.31 SS’s per minute). She has good takedowns (TD’s)(1.82 per fight) and is good in the clinch. Jedzejczyk (JJ) is a solid striker and lands at a high output (6.44 SS’s per minute).
Vegas is leaning on this fight going to decision (-170). Shevchenko is the favorite in this case according to them at (-120).
Now in cash games there are 2 was to go here. The obvious one being to stack this and lock in 120+ draftkings points. The other being use JJ has your cash punt. I personally think this fight should be lined way closer than it is. It’s very hard to ignore the value we are getting with her high output striking. Both of these are in play and I haven’t decided which way I am personally going.
In tournaments JJ is going to be 1 of the most popular plays in the sub 8k range. I do like the idea of using her we, just need to be aware she will have pretty high ownership. Shevchenko is playable as well. I just don’t like her as much as some of the fighters around her so, I won’t have more than 20-30% of her. Overall my preferred play is JJ and I think its very possible she wins this via decision.
Rakic (-650) 9.5k vs Clark (+475) 6.7k
Rakic is a solid striker (5 SS’s per minute) and has solid power. He is a good wrestler and has solid TD’s (1.5 per fight). Clark is the more experienced fighter here. He is athletic and decent in the clinch. Rakic is the highest favorite on the card and carries the most expensive price tag on draftkings.
Vegas is leaning on this one ending early with an ITD prop of (-170). Along with this Rakic carries a ITD prop of (-145). Let’s take our 1st glance at our DFS Army exclusive Research Station here.
These are great numbers. Rakic also happens to be rated as our best value on the entire card . I think he is firmly in play in all formats. He isn’t a must at his expensive salary. Currently my cash build doesn’t have him in it. I will have some exposure to him in tournaments. I am just not going to force him in. Clark is in play if you are building 20+ lineups. The most I would want of him is 1-2 lineups tops. Overall my preferred play is Rakic.
Ferreira (-510) 9.2k vs K. Nelson (+370) 7k
Ferreira is solid all-around. He is a good striker (3.86 SS’s per minutel and has good submissions. Nelson is taking this fight on 6 days short notice and is taking a huge step up in competition here.
Ferreira was priced on draftkings before this change of fighters happened. He is a solid value play in all formats. He is now the 2nd highest favorite on the card but, only priced now as the 4th most expensive. I personally don’t want any part of Nelson even at his cheap price. Overall Ferreira is one of my favorite plays now on the entire card.
Gadelha (-335) 9.3k vs Ansaroff (+275) 6.9k
Gadelha is a solid striker (3.23 SS’s per minute) and has good TD’s (3.94 per fight). She is athletic and has faced the better competition. Ansaroff is a solid striker that has solid output (4.82 SS’s per minute).
Vegas is fully expecting this fight to go to decision (-295). With Gadelha being the victor (-130 to win via decision).
As you can see our Research Station agrees. Gadelha makes for a very solid play in all formats. I like the safety she has being a solid favorite. Plus even with the fight expected to go to decision she will most likely get some TD’s. Ansaroff I think is worth sprinkling in some tournaments though. Gadelha has in the past shown to have some cardio issues. I don’t want a ton of Anasaroff but 20% is a decent amount if making 20+ lineups. Overall my preferred play is Gadelha.
Laprise (-380) 9.1k vs Lima (+315) 7.1k
Laprise is a solid striker (4.77 SS’s per minute) and has solid power. Lima is a tough fighter and is decent overall.
Vegas is slighty leaning on this fight ending ITD (-150) and Laprise carries an ITD prop himself of (-110). The Research Station has Laprise popping off as the 2nd best value play on the entire card. I think he is squarely in the mix for tournaments and don’t mind him at all in cash. Lima is someone I will mostly likely be fading. I just don’t see a responsible path to victory for him. Laprise is 1 of my favorite plays on the entire card.
Katona (-185) 8.9k vs Lopez (+160) 7.3k
Katona is a decent striker (4.73 SS’s per minute) and is moving down a weightclass. Lopez is a solid wrestler and has good TD’s (3.13 per fight).
Vegas likes this one to be decided by the judges (-175 to end via decision).
At his salary that makes me not like Katona as much. He does carry some upside so I don’t hate him in tournaments. I just won’t be heavy on him personally.
Looking at those numbers I don’t mind Lopez as a cash or tournament punt play. I think he actually has more paths to victory. Plus I like the upside him brings with his wrestling. Both are playable in tournaments. My preferred play is going to be Lopez.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Santos (-190) 8.8k vs Manuwa (+165) 7.4k
Santos is a solid striker (4.89 SS’s per minute) and has good power. Manuwa is a solid striker (3.34 SS’s per minute) and has solid power.
According to Vegas this has the highest ITD prop (-515) on the whole card. With Santos at (-130) and Manuwa at (+225). Obviously this is a fight we want a good amount of exposure to with this.
Looking at these numbers both are in play. Santos needs an early finish to pay off his draftkings salary and it very well could happen. Manuwa in turn would exceed value in a win. I will personally have 100% exposure to this 1. I am currently siding with a 60-40 split in favor of Santos.
Dawodu (-165) 8.6k vs Bochniak (+145) 7.6k
Dawodu is athletic and a solid striker (4.98 SS’s). He has ok power and good combos. Bochniak is a tough fighter. He is a decent striker (2.56 SS’s) and has good cardio.
Vegas likes this fight to go to decision (-185).
In a decision win I see it very unlikely that Dawodu pays off his draftkings salary. For that reason alone I will have very little exposure to him. Bochniak interests me some as a punt. I don’t think he will be super popular. I am thinking I might have around 20-25% exposure to him. Overall just based on salary and odds my preferred play is Bochniak.
G. Nelson (-145) 8.4k vs Oliveira (+125) 7.8k
Nelson is an ok striker (2.01 SS’s per minute) and has good submissions. He also has solid Jiu Jitsu. Oliveira is a tough fighter. He is a solid striker (3.01 SS’s per minute) and has good power.
Vegas likes this fight to end early with an ITD of (-290).
With both fighters in the midrange I think we need some exposure to both fighters in tournaments. I am siding with our Research Station and leaning slightly towards Nelson as my preferred play. It’s also not a bad idea to get equal exposure to both. I don’t think you need 100% exposure to this one. I will most likely be around 30% on both.
Aubin-Mercier (-120) 8.5k vs Burns (+100) 7.7k
Aubin-Mercier (OAM) is a decent wrestler (2.97 TD’s per fight and is a solid striker (2.58 SS’s). Burns is good all-around. He has good submissions and is solid on the ground (2.23 TD’s per fight).
Vegas is thinking this one will go to a decision (-155).
I am not wanting to much exposure to OAM with other fighters around him with more upside. Burns actually has a better ITD prop in this one (+205). This is a fight U plan on have a ton of exposure to. I think Burns has more upside and he is my preferred play.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Theodorou (-117) 8.2k vs Anders (-103) 8k
I generally fade Theodorou. He is your prototypical point fighter. He generally scores low even in wins. If I have exposure to this fight it will be with Anders.
Chookagian (-210) 8.7k vs Eye (+175) 7.5k
This fight has the highest prop to finish via decision (-485). I think there are better fights to target on this card.
If any of my thoughts change I will post them in chat.
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