Flynnie’s Forecheck for 12/22/18
We’re back!! After a long off-season of watching the greatest love story since Romeo and Juliet – obviously, I’m talking about Alex Ovechkin’s love affair with the Stanley Cup – it’s time to play some hockey. For those of you that are new to the DFS Army, my name is Rob Flynn. I’m an NHL DFS writer and coach inside the DFS Army. We have the best articles, coaching and tools in the industry. But let me tell you, the real money is made in the Slack chat that only our VIP’s have access to. That’s where we talk through a member’s lineup construction, thought process or just answer any DFS questions they may have. Every coach is very accessible and willing to share our own processes to help every member grow as a player.
I wrote an article describing some of my process and some tips to win. Check it out here. We also have a brand new Research station that is only available to VIP’s but here is the tutorial, to give you guys a taste of what’s coming this season. When you sign up to become a member, use promo code PUCK to give yourself 10% off for the life of your membership.
NHL DFS is very similar to DFS MLB. The volatility can be maddening, the floor of every player is ZERO and you need stacking in all contests. In cash games you need at least two players that correlate on either the scoring line or power play, to hopefully grab the goal and an assist. In GPP’s you need to stack up the entire line and hope that line goes off for multiple goals.
Without any further ado let’s dig into today’s 8-game slate.
I am primarily a cash/hybrid player but even that requires some stacking. So, I list my favorite and then I take the pieces from those stacks that fit my lineup construction. Unlike last season, I will put my stacks, D-men and goalies in order of my preference.
FORWARDS
EDM 1 – McDavid, Draisaitl, Chiasson – They have scored nine goals in the last 10 games and TB’s top two lines have given up 14 in that span and the top line has also given up three goals in the last three games. McJesus is also our highest projected skater on the night.
VAN 2 – Leivo, Boeser, Pettersson – They have scored eight goals in the last 10 games and WPG’s #2 line has given up six over that time. WPG as a team is allowing a ton of goals lately and also among the league’s worst in shot suppression. Both of these underdog lines should go overlooked on a slate this size. Mix in Horvat and or Edler to differentiate your stack in large field GPP’s.
TOR 2 – Matthews, Marleau, Kapanen – These guys will not go overlooked. Auston Matthews is just below McJesus in our projections and I would imagine most models around the industry have a similar projection. They way you differentiate yourself is by choosing who you stack Matthews with. Kapanen’s numbers are very similar to Marleau’s over the last 5 and last 10 games, but he saves you over $1000. Morgan Rielly always makes a good stacking option with these guys.
Honorable Mention: TB 2, BUF 1, COL 1, DAL 1, PIT 1
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DEFENSE
Ristolainen: Highest floor/ceiling combination on the slate. He is too cheap for the access to the hottest line in the league he provides.
Edler: He’s healthy, he’s on my list.
Nurse: He has played unbelievably well taking over for Klefbom and I think EDM will score in bunches tonight.
Honorable Mentions: Carlson, Letang, Chabot, Trouba, Spurgeon, Faulk, Rielly
Our long-time VIP Joker Wins took down a GPP and had two other top-10 finishes
GOALIES
Murray: UGH!! I really don’t like any Penguins goalies but Murray is playing well since coming back (2-0-0/1.94/0.945 stat line). He is also going against the reason the DFS world hates the Corsi stat now… The Carolina Hurricanes. They throw a ton of pucks on net but cannot score, Pittsburgh also allows a ton of shots but they limit the damage with goals. Murray is really cheap at $8000 and our Research Station loves him today.
Markstrom: I can’t sign off on this as a cash play but this guy is rolling (6-0-0/1.67/0.942 over the last three weeks). WPG is going to throw a ton of pucks on net, but they also have the second most goals in the league over the last three weeks, so there is a lot of risk in this play but it could win you a tournament.
Andersen: 5-2-1/3.04/0.904 over the last three weeks. He is very expensive but is the highest money line favorite at -245 and facing the lowest ITT (2.4). He makes a very safe cash play, but given his price I don’t think he has the upside for GPP’s.
Honorable Mention: Brossoit, Koskinen, Gibson, Varlamov, Copley (if you need to punt)
GOAL PREDICTION: Auston Matthews
Remember guys, always confirm the starters after morning skate.
I generally have this article out in the morning. If you guys have any questions reach out to me on Twitter or in Slack. Join the DFS Army today by using Promo Code PUCK to save 10% off your membership for life.