BigMarley’s Tiers Breakdown – DraftKings
Last year I won a trip out to the Live Final for DraftKings to compete in the PickEm’ (Tiers) Championship. I won my ticket to that with a $2 entry and I ended up winning $5,000 at the Live Final. This year, I am going to share all my Tiers secrets with the DFS ARMY members and hopefully, some of you guys can get an awesome experience like that this year.
The first thing I want to say about Tiers is that you don’t necessarily want to make a lineup going for the most points you can score. Instead, think of what the popular plays will be and try to be different by still making good picks. With Tiers, there is no salary, so people flock to the “best” plays. That makes it easier to know which players will be chalky. If you look at projections for each tier, the highest projected player will usually be the most owned guy in that tier. However, they don’t always score the most. Fading the chalk players is the way to go in GPPs and this format makes it easier for you to figure out who those chalk players will be.
With that said, let’s dig into the week 17 Tiers (College Conference) slate:
T1- I really don’t like this tier at all this week. I think Julio Jones is the best play, but he has only ran routes on 65% of Ryan’s drop backs the last 2 weeks and this is a meaningless game. The Domination Station has Julio as the top play as well though, so I might just lean on that and go all-in on this spot. Week 17 is always a tricky week not knowing each teams and players motivation, so I won’t be playing cash games this week and I will lower my GPP investment a bit as well. I think the next best play in this tier is Alshon Jeffery. The last 2 weeks with Foles at QB, Jeffery has 13 receptions for 242 yards. The Eagles need a win and a Vikings loss to make the playoffs so they will be going all out to get a win here and Jeffery should be a big part of their game plan.
T2- The two plays I am looking at here are the Texans players. The Texans need a win to get a 1st round home game in the playoffs so they will be going all out in this spot. Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins will be the only two guys I look to roster from this tier. I would prefer Hopkins over Watson because he is by far the main target for Watson and I could see him getting 15 targets in this spot. I think he has the higher ceiling, so if I am just making 1 lineup then I would go Hopkins. However, Ramsey will be on Hopkins in this game so maybe I am wrong on those 15 targets and Watson might look elsewhere or use his legs a lot in this game. I think he has the higher floor and is the safer play for 20-points.
T3- This is going to be the Saquon Barkley chalk tier. I think Barkley gets 50% or more ownership in this tier and if you are going to use him then you should go all-in and use him in all your lineups. If you are just making 1 lineup then I think it is smart to avoid all that ownership and go elsewhere. I think Tom Brady is a solid option and I think he gets 20 or more points in this spot. GB destroyed this NYJ team last week and the Pats need a win to get a 1st round bye, so I expect them to put that on Brady’s shoulders and I expect them to score a lot this week. I also think George Kittle is a good GPP option. He should be real low owned this week and he is 99 yards away from the single season TE receiving record. SF wants to get him that record and he also has Kelce above him who will break the record as well. I think Kittle gets fed a ton in this game and I would be surprised if he didn’t get the 100-yard bonus.
T4- This is by far the toughest tier of the week and I want to use pretty much everyone on it. I am not sure what I will do yet for my lineup(s) so this is where I will reference the Domination Station this week. I wouldn’t try to talk you off any play in this tier so if you have a strong lean in this tier then I would just go with that. Here are the projections on the DS for T4 this week:
T5- This is a tough tier, but I have 3 names I am looking at personally. The Seahawks are locked into the 5th or 6th seed and I am not sure if they even care which spot they get. Chris Carson would be my top play if I knew he would get a full workload, but I am not sure that will be the case and I can see them limiting him to save him for round 1. He has looked amazing lately scoring 54.6 DK points the last two weeks. Arizona is ranked 27th against opposing RBs, so this spot sets up so well for him and the only thing I am worried about is his workload. I also like Baker Mayfield a bit as well. He is projected high on the DS and now his name is being talked about in the ROTY race. I think he is going to try to end the year with a huge game to try and get more push at winning that award and I expect him to pass a lot in this game. The Ravens are a great defense and need to win this game, but that should keep Baker lower owned and I think with the worry about Carson’s workload that Baker could be the safest play to hit 20-points. The last guy I like is Sterling Shepard. The Cowboys are locked into the 4th seed so there is no reason for them to play their stars. Shepard could be going against backups here and he will be the #1 WR for Eli again. Last week he had 7 targets for 20-DK points and with this possibly being Eli’s last game I expect them to try to make it a good one for him and Shepard should see a lot of those looks.
T6- There are a lot of good plays in this tier and I wouldn’t talk you off anybody if you have a strong preference. I am going to be targeting two guys who are going for records. Travis Kelce is only 53 yards away from the single-season receiving yards record for TE’s. KC needs to win to lock up the 1 seed, and Kelce is going against this terrible Oakland defense who ranks 28th against TEs. I would be shocked if Kelce didn’t get that record, but he also has Kittle who is 99 yards away from that record and could be trying to catch Kelce. I expect Kelce to get double-digit targets here and I think the 100-yard bonus is well in reach. The other guy I like is Devonte Adams. If it wasn’t for the injury, then Adams would be my favorite WR play of the week and maybe an all-in spot for T6. He is 134 yards away from the GB single-season record and I would expect ARod to try and get him that in a meaningless game. If Adams doesn’t play then I will be all-in on Kelce, but if he plays I will split my ownership between the two.
Good luck to everyone in the DFS ARMY for week 17! I hope to see some more huge winning screenshots this week and if I don’t win the big Tiers GPP, I hope one of you do.
If you have any questions you can hit me up in my Slack channel at #Big-Marley-NFL-MMA