BigMarley’s Tiers Breakdown – DraftKings
Last year I won a trip out to the Live Final for DraftKings to compete in the PickEm’ (Tiers) Championship. I won my ticket to that with a $2 entry and I ended up winning $5,000 at the Live Final. This year, I am going to share all my Tiers secrets with the DFS ARMY members and hopefully, some of you guys can get an awesome experience like that this year.
The first thing I want to say about Tiers is that you don’t necessarily want to make a lineup going for the most points you can score. Instead, think of what the popular plays will be and try to be different by still making good picks. With Tiers, there is no salary, so people flock to the “best” plays. That makes it easier to know which players will be chalky. If you look at projections for each tier, the highest projected player will usually be the most owned guy in that tier. However, they don’t always score the most. Fading the chalk players is the way to go in GPPs and this format makes it easier for you to figure out who those chalk players will be.
With that said, let’s dig into the week 15 Tiers (Playmaker) slate:
T1- I think we kick Derek Carr and Carson Wentz off this list first thing. The other 6 are all very close plays and I wouldn’t have an issue if you want to use any of them. For me, the two guys I think I will be focusing on are Andrew Luck and Tom Brady. With Brady, I am fading him on the main slate, so this is more of a hedge for me because that game has the highest total on the week at 53.5 and fading him in the main could burn me. It is so hard to figure out who will get the points from NE, so I never know who to stack Brady with and that has been my main issue with rostering Pats players. If I am making 20 lineups, then I will just make some different Tiers stacks and hope that one of them hits big. Luck is going to be the guy I have the most exposure to, especially if TY Hilton does play. DAL/IND is the 2nd best game of the week on paper and luck averages 6.1 more DK points in home games opposed to the road. I always love targeting him at home and I don’t think anybody in this tier gets crazy ownership, so I want to get a lot of leverage on this game if I can and I will be targeting both sides of the ball and hoping for a shootout.
T2- There are a few names on this list I would be ok with if you want to use them. Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson I think are all fine here and I wouldn’t try to talk you off those guys if you want to use them. For me, this is probably an all-in spot on Ben Roethlisberger. I think he belongs in T1 this week with him being the 2nd most expensive QB on the main slate and this NE/PIT game being the game of the week. This is a meaningful game and I think it will almost have that playoff feel to it. Both teams want to win this game and Big Ben at home is usually money. PIT also does not have much of a running game now with Conner likely sitting, so Big Ben is going to need to be the guy to carry this team to victory. Ben averages 25.9 DK points at home and he is probably going to throw the ball over 50 times in this matchup. He has two of the best WRs in the league on his team and they are both in different tiers later, so we can stack him with either or both. I do think Big Ben is going to be the highest owned QB in this tier but that is why I will probably go all-in to be sure I still have some leverage on him. The 2nd guy I would be looking at is Dak because I think that game is a shootout, and I still may throw him in 1 lineup where I have Luck in T1 and hope for at 60+ point game.
T3- The top 3 guys are all I am looking at here and I think I will be mixing all 3 into lineups because they are all in good spots and I could see any of them breaking the slate. The top play for me is going to be Todd Gurley II. The Rams are 13-point home favorites and that is what I like to target with RBs. Especially the top RB in the league with his 27.4-point average going against the 28th ranked rushing defense in the Eagles without their starting QB. This spot just sets up so great for Gurley and we can’t use him on the main slate, so this is a great late-night hammer spot and if I am playing cash this week I will go with Gurley. Saquon Barkley looks like he might be trying to take the title of best RB in the league away from Gurley the way he has looked this season. He is an absolute stud and if any of these guys break an 80-yard TD then Barkley has to be the favorite to make that happen. OBJ is also out this week so this Giants team should revolve around Barkley and I would think he gets 20+ carries and 10+ targets in this spot. He is going to likely be my 2nd highest owned guy from this tier. The last guy I want is Ezekiel Elliot and I do want exposure to all 3 guys if I am making 20 lineups because I think they are the best 3 plays on the weekend regardless of position. Last week Elliott had 28 rushing attempts and 12 catches. That is 40 opportunities to score DK points and I expect him to get fed a lot this weekend to try and keep the Colts offense off the field. If I knew what the ownership would be for this tier I would probably load up on the one of these three who is least owned because I think they are all so close to each other and I think all of them should score ~30 or more DK points. I think if you want to play anyone else on this list you should just get exposure to them on the main slate instead where they are much cheaper. But with no prices, I think we have to stick to the top 3 guys here.
T4- This is a pretty ugly tier this week and I am not sure how I am going to play it yet. This is going to be the tier I reference you to the Domination Station. The DS has Tarik Cohen as the clear play in this tier with 2 more projected points than anybody else on the list. I wouldn’t feel comfortable going all-in on Cohen though, so I will probably mix a couple of these guys into my lineups. Here is what the DS is showing for T4:
T5- When we get to the WRs that is where I like to start stacking with the QBs I used in T1 and T2. Based on the QBs I am likely using, I think Antonio Brown is the best play here to stack with my Big Ben play from T2. I also think we can stack Julian Edelman with Brady from T1, and then we can run it back with JuJu in the next tier and that way we get a solid double stack from the same game, which is the game with the highest total. For me, that is what makes the most sense so those will probably be my top two guys from this tier. The only other guy I would be looking at personally is Julio Jones because I am always #TeamJulio and with him going against Patrick Peterson I think his ownership will be lowered from that and any time I can get Julio at lowered ownership I am interested. If you used a different QB in T1 or T2 I think this is the tier you would want to stack your QB with their top WR.
T6- As I mentioned in the last tier, I think Juju Smith-Schuster is a great stack with Big Ben and then we can go Edelman/Brady in the same lineup. That is my preferred way to build my lineups this week when I have Brady and Ben in the same lineup. We can also go Big Ben stacked with AB, and then run it back with the Brady to Josh Gordon stack in this tier, and I think that work fine as well with big upside. If I am making 20 lineups, then I will have a couple lineups of each of those game stacks. The other two guys I am interested from in this tier would go with my Luck lineups and that is T.Y. Hilton and Amari Cooper. That is the 2nd best game of the week behind the other game stack we just mentioned, and I want exposure to both. TY averages over 4 more DK points in home games and luck has been feeding him over 10 targets per game the last 4 weeks and he has had 125 yards or more in 3 of those games. If healthy, I will have some TY. Cooper has been amazing with the Cowboys so far and he has broken the slate twice in the last three weeks scoring 52.7 and 41 DK points. I can’t fade that kind of upside, so I like having Cooper in my Luck stacks as well, especially if TY is out.
T7- I think Tyler Boyd and Kenny Golladay are probably the two best plays from this tier since they are by far the best WRs left on their teams at this point in the season. Both have been disappointing when they are the only shows in town, but Boyd is in a great spot against the Raiders and Golladay looks like the real deal. I would think both should see close to double-digit targets and if you want to play either I think that is fine. I do think they are going to be the highest owned guys in this tier though, so I am personally going to fade them both. The two guys I am looking at are Larry Fitzgerald and Josh Reynolds. The way to attack the ATL defense this year is through the middle of the field and with Larry running in the slot I think he gets a lot of looks this week. With the season coming to an end I would also think they want to add to his HOF stats and feed him a few extra targets. He is probably my top play from this tier and I don’t think he will be very owned. Josh Reynolds is the other guy I like since I won’t have any Cooks or Woods from T5. The Eagles have the 31st ranked pass defense in the league and I do think Goff can throw all over them, but I would rather have Gurley with them likely having a big lead in this game. Reynolds is a great way to get exposure to that passing offense and I am fine with having him and Gurley in my lineup. The Rams have the highest team total of the week at 32.5 so I think having 2 guys in the same lineup makes a lot of sense and I would expect him to be low owned as well.
T8- This is an easy tier for me this week and I will only be targeting the top two guys on the list. If TY Hilton is out, then Eric Ebron will be in every single one of my Luck lineups. Luck loves throwing to him in the end zone and if TY is out then we could see ~15 targets go Ebron’s way this week. He is a great play even if you don’t have Luck in your lineup. The other guy is George Kittle. Kittle has been a beast this year and he looks to be the 3rd best TE in the league. Last week he had 210 receiving yards at HALFTIME, and there isn’t another TE on this list who has that kind of explosive upside. If I don’t have Luck in my lineup then Kittle will probably be my top option.
Good luck to everyone in the DFS ARMY for week 6! I hope to see some more huge winning screenshots this week and if I don’t win the big Tiers GPP, I hope one of you do.
If you have any questions you can hit me up in my Slack channel at #Big-Marley-NFL-MMA