For our second full slate of the week, we get several of the top rivalry games of the year. Historically this is a crazy day with the likes of Michigan-Ohio State, The Iron Bowl, and Florida-Florida State. Many of these games are known to be a battle in the trenches, and anything can happen in a rivalry game.
Georgia Tech @ Georgia ITT 38.5
Georgia has very much become a rush first team running about twice as much as they pass over the past 3 weeks. Georgia Tech has been very stingy against the run this year only allowing about 21 DK points a game to opposing RBs, but they are 82nd ranked against the run according to S&P+ rankings. They have not seen many run games like Georgia’s though, which is a top 5 rushing team. D’Andre Swift has had much more productive games minus last week’s blowout win, but Elijah Holyfield has had just as many rushes. While Georgia does not pass much, Georgia Tech has an awful pass defense, ranking bottom 25 in the country. I do not like going with Jake Fromm as he might not get many opportunities but Mecole Hardman might be a punt play this week as he is the target leader for Georgia and very cheap.
Baylor @ Texas Tech ITT 34.5
Texas Tech comes into a showdown with Baylor with bowl eligibility on the line for each team. Baylor is 90th against the pass according to S&P+ rankings but who Tech will put out at QB is a mystery that we need to look for. Alan Bowman has been in and out since suffering a partially collapsed lung and Jett Duffey has been banged up as well so it will be worth watching. The top 3 QBs are in fact questionable so keep an eye on who is warming up with the 1s. Tech’s two top receivers are TJ Vasher and Antoine Wesley. Vasher is riding a 5 game streak with double-digit DK points and Wesley has just 1 single digit DK point game all year as well as 40-point upside. In the backfield, Da’Leon Ward has around 10 carries a game but is also very involved in the passing game. Baylor is 95th against the run so this could be a sneaky spot for Ward.
Purdue @ Indiana ITT 34
Purdue travels to Indiana to play for the Old Oaken Bucket and also bowl eligibility for the winner. Indiana has the 108th ranked S&P+ pass defense and I really want to attack that this week. David Blough has 5 games over 30 DK points this season and I think he could have a big game again here. Rondale Moore is the most expensive receiver on the slate and for good reason. The freshman has 5 games over 33 DK points on the season including a 38.4-point performance last game. Isaac Zico is a more moderately priced option but he has not been as consistent the past 4 weeks with 2 games over 18 DK points and 2 games under 7 DK points. I also really like Terry Wright this week. He has 3 double-digit DK point games in a row including one over 40 DK points. DJ Knox will be in my player pool this week as well with Indiana giving up 188 yards on the ground a game. Markell Jones has been getting close to equal carries in some games so Knox is GPP only for me.
Auburn @ Alabama ITT 38.5
Alabama has the top passing offense and 4th ranked rushing defense in the country. Auburn has a top 15 defense but this is Alabama we are talking about and I do not worry about them offensively. Toa Tagovailoa is easily the Heisman frontrunner for good reason. He should have his way again this week with the biggest question being how much of this game will he play. Toa’s top receiver is Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy only has one game under double-digit DK points on the season yet he does not have a TD in 3 games. With 10 TDs through the first 8 games on the season, he is due for positive regression. Henry Ruggs III has over 15 DK points in each of the last 3 weeks and is a great value this week. Alabama has a great rush game but there is somewhat of a mystery who will be featured each week. As of late, it had seemed that Damien Harris is the most consistent except for the Tennessee game where he didn’t start for “internal reasons”. Josh Jacobs also has had double-digit carries in 2 of the last 4 games but has also had 2 games with less than 5 carries.
Minnesota @ Wisconsin ITT 32
Wisconsin continues to be a heavy run first team and will look to keep that trend going against the 109th ranked run defense in Minnesota. Jonathan Taylor continues to get the bulk of Wisconsin’s carries culminating in a 33 carry game last week. This week, he is the most expensive player on the slate after that 53.1 DK point performance. While I love Taylor and think he could have a great day, it is very hard to use him in cash and make a cash safe lineup. Aside from Taylor, there isn’t much to love about Wisconsin. At quarterback, it is still uncertain whether Alex Hornibrook will return or if Jack Coan will be starting. I really don’t want any piece regardless and with inept QB play, I want to avoid the receivers as well.
Arizona State @ Arizona ITT 33
This is a rivalry game where I want to talk about both teams. Arizona State is a run first team that also has a very efficient pass game. They face an Arizona team that is ranked 88th against the pass and I think all sides of this offense are in play this week. Manny Wilkins has over 24 DK points in 4 out of his last 5 starts and that would put him at 3x value this week. Against a defense that gives up almost 270 yards in the air a game, I really like him this week. His lead receiver and only DFS viable option is NFL prospect N’Keal Harry. Harry has 7 games over 20 DK points this year and I love the look of stacking him with Wilkins. In the backfield, Eno Smith has over 30 DK points in 3 of his last 4 starts and at least 27 carries in all 4 of those. In a game that I think can turn into a shootout, I want a good chunk of these 3 guys.
Arizona State @ Arizona ITT 31
This game is slated to be a shootout and rightly so. Both of these teams are capable of moving the ball and both have mediocre defenses. Arizona will face an Arizona State team that ranks 100th against and 95th against the pass according to the S&P+ ranks. After a season to forget until 3 weeks ago, oft-injured Khalil Tate has stepped it up averaging just under 30 DK points over that time. Tate was once in the Heisman conversation and wants to get back to that level, especially in a rivalry game. Shun Brown has turned into Tate’s favorite receiver, and he has scored in 3 straight games. Sean Poindexter has also had a great year although his targets have dipped as of late. JJ Taylor has been the lead back for this team and has averaged 30 carries over the past 3 games. His average has bounced up and down all season but he will get fed the rock and is a very modest price this week. Again, this is a game that I think would be great to stack. These are two very evenly matched teams that can move the ball and rack up fantasy points.
Week 13 Lineup Construction
Cash
My approach to cash is generally the same every slate. I want to get 2 QBs, 3 RBs, and 3 WRs. This might waver on smaller slates but in general, this is what I am going for. If I am paying down for a QB, I want to make sure that it is a dual-threat QB that can get points with their feet as well as their arm. If I am paying down at RB and WR, I want opportunity, whether that is in total rushes or targets. I generally prefer to pay up at for one QB and for RB’s and to try to find value in the WR position.
This week DraftKings really priced up the top running backs making it very hard to make a cash lineup with them. That being said, this is a week I don’t love the top tier of QBs. I am great with getting 2 mid-tier QBs and moving on. At running back, I think you can get some great options in that $7-$8k range and not have to go all the way up to Taylor. If you can snag one of those and then get a few RBs in the $5-$6k range you are golden for your WRs. The way the WRs are priced, it is also hard to reach up to the top tier and have a balanced lineup there. There are many great options in the $5k range that have a safe floor with upside this week that can get you across the finish line.
Week 13 CFB $60K Saturday Spectacular winning lineup
GPP
With DK changing up pricing and the slates changing up, I am leaning more and more to having a good amount of lineups with a quarterback and a skill player at superflex. I still want most of my lineups with 2 QBs but having a share without is good as well. These past few weeks, with the pricing coming down for the top skill players as well as for the top quarterbacks, it allows you to get better skill players into your superflex position. When there were several quarterbacks over $10k and several top running backs over $9k, you couldn’t get much upside with the position players that cheap. With extra salary, you can now put in high upside position players in that superflex role. I also think you can still mix in a few chalky plays with some pivots. Notice that 4 players in that lineup had over 15% ownership while the main stack was very low owned. This is a great way to attack a lineup.
This week, there are not as many shootout opportunities with the given spreads but there are some to attack. The Texas Tech-Baylor game, The Purdue-Indiana game, and the Arizona State-Arizona game are all games I think you can stack. I really like this week to pay up at receiver as I think it will be a rarely used trend. There is some really good value at RB and at QB and this can lead to some monster stacks.
As far as my builds go, I think I will have more big game stacks than normal this week. I really like the idea of getting some cheap WR exposure with a cheap QB as well to really open up my lineups. Another way to attack with the weak rushing D’s we are seeing is to put 2 opposing RBs against each other as one game stack and stack 2 QBs with their WRs in that lineup as well.