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Zadelstein’s Week 12 DraftKings CFB Breakdown

As the season starts to wind down, we have a slate with some high profile games but several games with some larger spreads.  In these blowout games, it’s important to look for value as there could be some players that can get some opportunities they don’t always get.  We also have a high total low spread game this week that will be great to stack.  Let’s get started.

Ohio State (-14) @ Maryland

Ohio State goes into Maryland this week a heavy favorite.  They are a very balanced team, even committing to the run last week against a top rushing defense in Michigan State.  Dwayne Haskins has been trending downward with 2 weeks under 15 DK points, and this could be another slow week for him.  Maryland is giving up just over 180 yards through the air but giving up almost that much on the ground.   At Haskins’ price, he is a GPP only fade for me this week.  At receiver, Parris Campbell has continued to rack up targets and has gotten in the end zone even with Haskins slow games, and is a great option.   Terry McLaurin also has double-digit DK points the last 4 games and is a cheaper pivot off of Campbell that I really like at his price.  Mike Weber and J.K. Dobbins continue to split reps in the backfield, but both are viable week to week.  Dobbins has had a more solid role with double-digit carries every game this season but Weber got 8 more touches last week than Dobbins.  I think against a team that gives up over 150 yards a game on the ground, these backs are GPP viable.

Ohio State Depth Chart

South Florida @ Temple (-14)

Temple has a very balanced offense but has much more success on the ground.  This week they take on a South Florida team that is bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed per game.  That sets up great for running back Ryquell Armstead.  Armstead has at least 20 carries in each of the past 6 games and is averaging over 5 yards a run.  His price is very inflated due to a 6 touchdown performance last week but he is in line for a solid game.  Under center, Anthony Russo has shown flashes of brilliance but has also had complete dud games from a DFS standpoint.  I think there are better options this week.  The one receiver I love on Temple is Ventell Bryant.  Bryant averages over 9 targets a game the past 4 games and has 2 games over 30 DK points in that span.

Temple Depth Chart

NC State (-17) @ Louisville

NC State travels to Louisville this week who is having an awful season.  The Cardinals just fired their head coach after being blown out in almost every game this year.  Louisville is giving up almost 300 yards a game on the ground and that is great for Reggie Gallaspy who is very reasonably priced this week. Gallaspy should see plenty of work having double-digit carries in all but 1 game this year.  Under center, Ryan Finley has been great averaging over 300 yards a game passing, but he is very expensive this week.  My exposure to Finley will be through receivers Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers.  Harmon has over 30 DK points in each of the last 3 games and Myers has over 24 in each of the last 2.  They are both priced up but should be in line for good games against this weak defense.

North Carolina State Depth Chart

Syracuse @ Notre Dame (-10)

This week, Syracuse takes on Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium.  Ian Book should be back under center after missing last game with a rib injury.  Book has been hot since taking over as the starter and should continue to be as the Irish look to push to the playoffs.  Book being back, bodes well for the receiving corps as well.  Miles Boykin and Chase Claypool were highly targeted and efficient with Book throwing the ball.  Boykin is the sure number one receiver on the team but Claypool had double-digit DK points in 5 of Book’s 6 starts and I love his value this week.  In the backfield, Dexter Williams has been great.  He is priced up after taking a heavy load last week with Book out but he is definitely GPP viable.  With Notre Dame on the edge of qualifying for the playoff, every game matters and I look for them to try to impress.

Notre Dame Depth Chart

Indiana @ Michigan (-28)

Michigan hosts Indiana this week in a game that expects to be a blowout.  Indiana gave up over 350 rushing yards last week and is ranked 107th against the rush.  Karan Higdon has been the lead back for a team that loves to run the ball.  He should get a healthy workload this week and should feast on a weak rushing defense.  Shea Patterson is under center for the Wolverines and has been a great value as of late.  He has over 20 DK points in 4 of the last 5 games and 17 in the other, averaging over 3x for this week’s price.  Donovan Peoples-Jones is Patterson’s favorite target and is a great stack with Patterson.  He has seen an uptick in production with Patterson having a better 2nd half of the season.

Michigan Depth Chart

West Virginia (-5) @ Oklahoma State

It seems like every week there is a Big 12 shootout and this is this week’s edition.  West Virginia sees itself with an outside chance to break into the playoff race but first must get through this Oklahoma State team.  West Virginia is led by Heisman candidate Will Grier.  Grier has over 27 DK points in all but 1 game and should continue that in a big game this week.  Grier’s main weapon on the season is David Sills.  Sills continues to be a top play every week and has broken away from the other receivers for West Virginia, averaging over 22 DK points a game.  Gary Jennings has also continued to be a top target for Grier but is priced to a point where he is GPP only.  Oklahoma State gives up over 30 DK points a week, but West Virginia has now emerged as a 3 headed backfield and I avoid those situations.

West Virginia Depth Chart

West Virginia @ Oklahoma State (+5)

Oklahoma State is the only underdog I am writing about this week but for good reason.  The implied team total for Oklahoma State is still 34 in a game that should be a shootout.  They also have some of the best values on the slate.  Taylor Cornelius runs the offense for this Oklahoma State team.  He has over 25 DK points in 5 of the last 6 games and over 30 in 4 of those.  His lead receiver is Tylan Wallace, who has over 36 DK points in each of the last 3 games.  He is very expensive this week but a good alternative is Tyran Johnson.  Johnson has 14 targets in each of the last 2 games and is trending upward.  Justice Hill got just 5 carries last game before an injury knocked him out.  He should be back this week and is very cheap.  Chubba Hubbard came in for Hill and played lights out.  I think he will see an uptick in carries as well.

Oklahoma State Depth Chart

Week 12 Lineup Construction

Cash

My approach to cash is generally the same every slate.  I want to get 2 QBs, 3 RBs, and 3 WRs.  This might waver on smaller slates but in general, this is what I am going for.  If I am paying down for a QB, I want to make sure that it is a dual-threat QB that can get points with their feet as well as their arm.  If I am paying down at RB and WR, I want opportunity, whether that is in total rushes or targets.  I generally prefer to pay up at for one QB and for RB’s and to try to find value in the WR position.

This week DraftKings has really priced up the elite running backs and wide receivers making it very hard to pay up for QB and get top end production from the other 2 positions.  I really like taking a mid-tier and a cheap QB this week.  As far as running backs go, I want 2 mid to top tier guys as of now.  If news comes out allowing for more value that could change.  After my initial builds, I was left with around $5K-$5.5K for each receiver.  There are so many options in this range this week that I like that I was really happy with my cash build.

Week 11 CFB $75K Saturday Spectacular 1st place lineup

GPP

With DK changing up pricing and the slates changing up, I am leaning more and more to having a good amount of lineups with a quarterback and a skill player at superflex.  I still want most of my lineups with 2 QBs but having a share without is good as well.  These past few weeks, with the pricing coming down for the top skill players as well as for the top quarterbacks, it allows you to get better skill players into your superflex position.  When there were several quarterbacks over $10k and several top running backs over $9k, you couldn’t get much upside with the position players that cheap.  With extra salary, you can now put in high upside position players in that superflex role.  I also think you can still mix in a few chalky plays with some pivots.  Notice that 4 players in that lineup had over 15% ownership while the main stack was very low owned.  This is a great way to attack a lineup.

This week, with the position players priced up, I do not mind having more lineups with a non-QB superflex.  If I am going that direction, I really want to go for the quarterback that I think will be the highest scoring regardless of price and ownership.  I think there are many possibilities of this from the $8k range up.  I want to stack that QB with their top receiver and either the top RB or WR from the opposing team.  This still allows me to have a game stack from a game that could shoot out.

I really like to go with one of the elite players from every position then go with mid-tier and value plays to fill in a lineup when I do not have 2 QBs.  There are a ton of viable WRs in the $4.5k and up range and not as many RBs so I would go to WR to look for value.  Like I stated above, a good way to stack with these lineups is to take a player from each side of a high total game in hopes that it shoots out.