Welcome back. We are in a great run of MMA events to end 2018. This week we have a solid 12 fight card from Denver, Colorado. With this being the case we need to pay attention to how fighters cardio is because of the higher elevation. Overall I like this card in both cash games and tournaments on draftkings. Be sure you check out all our great MMA content and take advantage of all our features.
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As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC Fight Night 139 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Ramos (-1000) 9.5k vs Gunther (+650) 6.7k
Ramos is a solid striker and lands at a solid rate of 3.19 Significant Strikes (SS’s) per minute. He is also a solid grappler (2.99 Takedowns per fight). In addition he is also has excellent submissions. Gunther is a tough fighter. He isn’t very good overall and is very hittable.
Vegas odds say all we need to know here. Ramos is by far the biggest favorite on the card and has an Inside The Distance (ITD) prop of (-360). Yes, Ramos is the highest priced fighter on draftkings. But, I still want a significant ammount of exposure to him. I think he is a great cash play and I am locking him in mine personally. In addition I want him in my tournament lineups as well. If, I have the salary I am most likely paying up for him. I don’t think Gunther has a realistic chance at all and am comfortable in fading him altogether. Overall Ramos is a solid play in all formats.
Jung (-102) 8.5k vs Rodriguez (-108) 7.7k
Jung is an aggresive fighter. He is a solid striker (3.78 SS’s per minute). He has also only been knocked out 1 time in his career. Rodriguez is an aggresive fighter as well. He is a good striker (3.86 SS’s) and has solid leg kicks. He is athletic and has good cardio. Neither of these fighters have had a fight in over a year. The most significant being Jung (1 fight in the last 5 years).
Vegas is fully expecting this fight to end ITD (-285). I think the most likely scenerio is a stoppage of some sort in the later rounds.
In cash games we have potentially 5 rounds of MMA action here. With the odds being so close I think this is a great fight to stack in cash and move on. In tournaments it’s honestly to tight for me to take a stand on either fighter. So, far that reason I am going to have even exposure to both (either 50/50 if I am going all in on fight exposure or 40/40 if I want to fade the fight).
Overall this is a great fight to stack in cash and a solid fight to get exposure to both in tournaments.
Pena (-160) 9.3k vs Trizano (+150) 6.9k
Pena is an ok striker (2.26 SS’s) and has solid power. He has good submissions and will have the size advantage. Trizano is a solid striker (2.80 SS’s) and the more experienced MMA fighter overall here.
Vegas is slighty leaning towards this fight ending (ITD). Let’s take a look at our DFS Army exclusive Research Station for its take here.
When draftkings released salaries for this card Pena was around a (-300). As the week has progressed the odds have taken a significant drop. For this reason I think Trizano is a solid play in cash just based on odds value alone.
In tournaments its a bit more interesting. I think Pena has the better chance to win and Vegas agrees (+125 ITD). With the odds value I think Trizano will be somewhat popular in tournaments. I will have exposure to both. My lean right now is more Pena at hopefully lower ownership. Overall Trizano in play for cash games and both in tournaments.
Barber (-380) 9.4k vs Cifers (+340) 6.8k
Barber is an athletic fighter and has solid takedowns. She is an ok striker and has solid leg kicks. Cifers is solid overall. She is a good striker and has solid power. She has also shown to have decent TD defense.
This fight is nearly split on if it goes to decision or not. In cash games I think both are actually in play depending on your lineup construction. It’s hard to ignore the odds on Barber. My only problem with her is her expensive price tag. Cifers is manly in play for me because if this fight does go later I think she should be able to get around 20 draftkings points. This is one of those fights I might end up changing my mind on and if so I will be giving those thoughts in our Slack channel.
In tournaments I don’t have as much interest in this one. I just have concerns about the upside for either fighter. Specially Barber at 9.4k. I just think overall this fight is better suited for cash games in general.
Perry (-185) 8.9k vs Cerrone (+170) 7.3k
Perry is an aggresive fight. He is a solid striker (4.12 SS’s) and has good power. Cerrone is a good striker (4.12 SS’s) and an ok wtestler (1.30 TD’s per fight).
Vegas sees this fight ending early with an ITD prop of (-265). In addition if its ending early they see it being from the hands of Perry (+100 ITD).
This is where understanding the philosophy of cash games is important. While Perry makes a great tournament play because of his knockout power. He isn’t in play for me in cash because he has such a low floor. Cerrone actually has more paths to victory in this fight. Aside from Rodriguez he is popping of on our Research Station as the 2nd Best value play of the sub 8k fighters. For that reason I think Cerrone is well in the mix of cash game plays.
In tournaments I think you need exposure to both fighters here. If Perry ends this in violent KO fashion he will put up a 100+ draftkings score. If Cerrone can avoid this he can get his wrestling going and put up a solid score as well. I will most likely have slighty more exposure to Cerrone due to the cheaper price tag. But, I will have Perry in some lineups as well.
Dariush (-145) 8.7k vs Moises (+135) 7.5k
Dariush is a good striker (4.04 SS’s) and has solid leg kicks. He has decent TD’s (1.15 per fight) and good submissions. Moises is a ok striker and has good leg kicks.
Vegas slightly leans on an early stoppage here (-125 ITD). Dariush is by far the more experienced fighter here. The big question is how shot is his chin. He has taken a heavy ammount of damage in recent fights.
The interesting thing is if this fight ends early Vegas actually is slightly leaning towards Moises doing so.
In cash games I think Moises is my preferred play at his price. In touraments I like Dariush more. I think he could have recency bias in that everyone thinks he is prone to getting knocked out. In saying this I will also have exposure to Moises in tournaments as well. Overall Moises is my preferred cash play and Dariush in tournaments.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Shelton (-115) 8.2k vs Morales (-105) 8k
Shelton is athletic and a good striker (3.17 SS’s). Morales is tough and a decent striker. He is a solid grappler and is a Black belt in Jiu Jitsu.
This fight is expected to go to decision (-215). With both fighters priced in the middle lets see if our Research Station can give us some clarity.
Not a fight I am in love with overall. But, it does warrant some exposure due to their draftkings salaries. Overall I am siding with Vegas and our Research Station. Shelton is my preferred play. Overal not a fight I want to have more than 20% exposure on either fighter.
Smith (-230) 9.1k vs Erosa (+190) 7.1k
Smith is a good striker and has big power. He is athletic. His biggest drawbacks are his lack of ground game and his questionable cardio. Erosa is decent striker (4.90 SS’s) and has a decent ground game.
This one is ending early according to Vegas (-260).
Just looking at those numbers above if, it’s ending early Smith is the most likely to do so. It is worth noting both these fighters are taking this fight on short notice. For that reason alone I want to get some exposure to Erosa. If, he can weather the intial onslaught he very well could be the fresher fighter and get his ground game going. Overall my preferred play is Smith but. I will have Erosa exposure as well.
Moffett (-115) 7.8k vs Skelly (-105) 8.4k
Moffett is an ok wrestler and has solid submissions. Skelly is a decent striker (1.95 SS’s) and a decent grappler (1.82 TD’s). This isn’t a fight I love but with their prices on draftkings its worth some exposure. The value play here is Moffett. Overall this fight I will most likely have equal shares of both. Nothing to crazy. Right now its looking like around 10-20% for me if building 20+ lineups.
Rosa (-255) 9k vs Sanchez (+215) 7.2k
Rosa is a good striker (1.97 SS’s) and has a solid ground game (2.19 TD’s per fight). Sanchez is an ok striker (3.12 SS’s). His biggest knock is he often times gives up his back. Not ideally want you want to do against a wrestler like Rosa.
Vegas is leaning towards this going to decision (-140).
I am disagreeing with Vegas here. I actually think Rosa could end this within the 2nd round in a very grapple heavy game plan. We know what grapplers mean on draftkings, they mean lots of advances and that equates MMA gold. I am not sure how popular Rosa will be with these being the 1st fight on the card. I personally am going to take some chances on him. As a hedge I will probably have Sanchez in a few lineups. Overall my preferred play is Rosa.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Randamie (-175) 8.8k vs Pennington (+155) 7.4k
This has a -260 goes to decision prop. Randamie is priced to high to be much in play for me and Pennington is not in play for me because I feel she most likely losses here.
Yoder (-160) 8.6k vs Cooper (+140) 7.6k
Yoder is yet to get a UFC win and is priced at 8.6k. Outside of a tournament dart throw no thank you. Cooper just isn’t a very good fighter. I will let others take chances here.
If any of my thoughts change I will post them in chat.
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