Flynnie’s Forecheck for 11/16/18
We’re back!! After a long off-season of watching the greatest love story since Romeo and Juliet – obviously, I’m talking about Alex Ovechkin’s love affair with the Stanley Cup – it’s time to play some hockey. For those of you that are new to the DFS Army, my name is Rob Flynn. I’m an NHL DFS writer and coach inside the DFS Army. We have the best articles, coaching and tools in the industry. But let me tell you, the real money is made in the Slack chat that only our VIP’s have access to. That’s where we talk through a member’s lineup construction, thought process or just answer any DFS questions they may have. Every coach is very accessible and willing to share our own processes to help every member grow as a player.
I wrote an article describing some of my process and some tips to win. Check it out here. We also have a brand new Research station that is only available to VIP’s but here is the tutorial, to give you guys a taste of what’s coming this season. When you sign up to become a member, use promo code PUCK to give yourself 10% off for the life of your membership.
NHL DFS is very similar to DFS MLB. The volatility can be maddening, the floor of every player is ZERO and you need stacking in all contests. In cash games you need at least two players that correlate on either the scoring line or power play, to hopefully grab the goal and an assist. In GPP’s you need to stack up the entire line and hope that line goes off for multiple goals.
Without any further ado let’s dig into today’s 6-game slate.
I am primarily a cash/hybrid player but even that requires some stacking. So, I list my favorite and then I take the pieces from those stacks that fit my lineup construction. Unlike last season, I will put my stacks, D-men and goalies in order of my preference.
FORWARDS
Colorado 1 – MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog – They are together, they are home, they are hot – just play them. I love targeting Ovechkin on defense and I believe Colorado will use their last change to take advantage of him. This line will be chalky, make no mistake. I am more than willing to eat that chalk. These three have scored 10 goals over the last 10 games and scored four over the last three.
Buffalo 2 – Middlestadt, Okposo, Sheary – This is my favorite GPP line of the night. I sincerely hope they go under owned with other potential value kicking around this slate. This group has quietly scored three goals in the last three games and on the flip side of that WPG 2 has given up three goals in the last three. Both lines are trending in opposite directions and this might be the only vulnerable spot on the Jets who have been amazing lately.
VGK PP1 – Tuch, Pacioretty, Marchessault – I chose the PP here bc both STL top lines are giving up goals in bunches lately (11 combine GA in the last 10) and VGK is heating up. Alex Tuch is incredible value tonight. He is scorching hot and still only $4900 on FD. If you want to mix and match this unit a little more, feel free to add Colin Miller and/or Reilly Smith who has similar production to Marchessault for almost $2000 cheaper. In this interest of full disclosure, our model like Marchessault better by a wide margin
Honorable Mention: BOS 1, TOR 1, WPG 1, DAL 1, BOS 2,
We crush all sports, pro or college
DEFENSE
Krug – Krug has has a fire lit under him since he game back. He is showing an incredible floor and when he share a lot of ice time with the Bruins top line, he will always have a high ceiling. He has a total of 44 BSSOG in his seven games back and hasn’t posted below 12 FD points in his last 5. I think he may go a little over looked with people finding $400-500 more for Byfuglien or Rielly. Another reason he may go over looked is that a few other games look much more enticing for fantasy points. This should be a slow 2-1, 3-2 type of game. It shouldn’t be a surprise that those are three of our top four projected defensemen tonight. Spoiler alert: I like those two guys too but I’ll skip them in the honorable mention section.
Miller – Since I gave you two other stud defensemen in the Krug blurb, I’ll give you some value guys. Miller is on the top pairing and running the point on the VGK PP1 so that gives you virtually unlimited access to the scoring on the top two lines. Theodore is in a good spot too, but I want to capitalize on the trends here with Miller heating up and Theodore cooling off a bit. If you are torn between the two: Miller for floor, Theodore for ceiling.
Pietrangelo – His numbers came as a bit of a shock to me. I’m not a huge fan of taking skaters against a goalie as hot as MAF has been. However, I think he makes a great one-off with his massive floor and if you don’t use him against MAF, you can leverage some of that ownership.
Honorable Mentions:Cole, Trouba, Seabrook, Carlson, Ristolainen, Barrie, Niskanen, Heiskanen
Our long-time VIP Joker Wins took down a GPP and had two other top-10 finishes
GOALIES
Brossoit: It is terrifying that a backup goalie is a -200+ favorite. The kid is talented. So far this season he has posted a 3-0-0 record with a 1.67 GAA and 0.957 save %. I will have shares of him because of the money line and the terrific defense that is playing in front of him. He is also our highest projected goalie in the Research Station – you have to be a VIP to see the rest though.
Fleury: MAF is the next highest favorite on the slate at -159 going against the Blues. The Blues are not a very good offensive team lately and VGK has drastically improved their defense. MAF offers you a very safe floor but I believe it will be hard for him to hit his ceiling in this game with the lack of shots that he will face. He is the safest goalie on the slate in my opinon.
Sparks: Here’s where Flynn loses his mind. His numbers on the season are terrible (2-1-0/3.98/0.879) but he makes an interesting pivot off Brossoit at the same price. The masses will flock to the heavy favorite and I’m content targeting a Ducks team that can’t get out of their own way. The Ducks are having a tough time getting shots and goals, while the Leafs are top-10 in each of those defensive categories. Anaheim has some talent, so this is still a risky play but I think it’s a smart risk in GPP.
Honorable Mention: Crawford, Rask, Bishop
GOAL PREDICTION: Kyle Okposo
Remember guys, always confirm the starters after morning skate.
I generally have this article out in the morning. If you guys have any questions reach out to me on Twitter or in Slack. Join the DFS Army today by using Promo Code PUCK to save 10% off your membership for life.