Flynnie’s Forecheck for 11/19/18
We’re back!! After a long off-season of watching the greatest love story since Romeo and Juliet – obviously, I’m talking about Alex Ovechkin’s love affair with the Stanley Cup – it’s time to play some hockey. For those of you that are new to the DFS Army, my name is Rob Flynn. I’m an NHL DFS writer and coach inside the DFS Army. We have the best articles, coaching, and tools in the industry. But let me tell you, the real money is made in the Slack chat that only our VIP’s have access to. That’s where we talk through a member’s lineup construction, thought process or just answer any DFS questions they may have. Every coach is very accessible and willing to share our own processes to help every member grow as a player.
I wrote an article describing some of my process and some tips to win. Check it out here. We also have a brand new Research station that is only available to VIP’s but here is the tutorial, to give you guys a taste of what’s coming this season. When you sign up to become a member, use promo code PUCK to give yourself 10% off for the life of your membership.
NHL DFS is very similar to DFS MLB. The volatility can be maddening, the floor of every player is ZERO and you need stacking in all contests. In cash games you need at least two players that correlate on either the scoring line or power play, to hopefully grab the goal and an assist. In GPP’s you need to stack the entire line and hope that line goes off for multiple goals.
If sports betting is your thing we have the Beat the Bookie site that is a part of the DFS Army and they are just as successful on that side as we are on the DFS side of things. Hit the link and if you are interested, the same promo code PUCK works there too for a 10% discount
Without any further ado let’s dig into today’s 9-game slate.
I am primarily a cash/hybrid player but even that requires some stacking. So, I list my favorite and then I take the pieces from those stacks that fit my lineup construction. Unlike last season, I will put my stacks, D-men, and goalies in order of my preference.
FORWARDS
DAL 1 – Seguin, Radulov, Benn – I tried to not have this be my #1 stack but here we are. The Rangers have been winning games lately (8-2 in the last 10) but they still rank middle to back of the pack defensively in goals allowed and shots allowed. Radulov is our second highest overall projected skater and he is my default in cash from this line when I am considering them because he’s always cheaper than Seguin and Benn. However tonight you can run any combo in cash with the value that is available on this slate.
FLA 1 – Hoffman, Barkov, Dadonov – This game most likely will shoot out and Mike Hoffman is the hottest skater on the planet right now a 15 game point streak – a franchise record that he is looking to extend against the team that caused him to be traded twice in about a week this summer. Granted him getting moved was his own fault for being an asshole but I don’t care about a player’s personality if they are going to win me money.
BUF 1 – Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner – I like this line a lot tonight. They are the hottest line over the last ten games with ten goals but they have cooled off in the last few. Tonight is a great get-right spot for them. Pitt is terrible defensively. And despite a great projection tonight and decent numbers recently, Casey DeSmith is not good. I will stack against a Pitt goalie way more often than not because I know I will be right more often than not.
Honorable Mention: MTL 2, OTT 1, NSH 1, WPG 1, TOR 1, WSH 1, CGY 1, VGK 2, TB 1
We crush all sports, pro or college
DEFENSE
You guys know by now the studs that are in play, I’ll skip the write up on Letang, Josi, Rielly, Carlson, and Yandle. If you are paying up on defense, I will not argue against any of these studs.
Chabot – He is playing like a stud but still priced in the mid-range. He has a point on over 32% of Ottawa’s goals scored this season. This Senators offense is rolling right now with the second most goals scored over the last three weeks.
Pionk – Similar production to Chabot recently without the 40+ point ceiling, but the floors are very similar and he is priced $500 cheaper at only $4600 on FD
Lindell – This feels a bit like I’m chasing his explosion last game but he is running the point on the top PP and getting a lot of ice time with the top line of Radulov, Seguin, and Benn. That line projects very well but they are a risk going against a hot NYR team. Great GPP one off defenseman or as part of a stack. I’m not sure I’d trust him in cash, although $4100 won’t kill you if he duds.
Honorable Mentions: Jones, Ristolainen, Pietrangelo, Byfuglein, Giordano
Our long-time VIP Joker Wins took down a GPP and had two other top-10 finishes
GOALIES
Rittich – Over the last three weeks, the Flames back-up has posted a 4-0-0 record with a 1.49 GAA and 0.934 save %. I have no idea why Mike Smith keeps getting starts, he’s terrible and Rittich is good. The Flames even seem to play better when Rittich is between the pipes. He is super cheap on FanDuel, and combine that with VGK being on a back to back. I’m going to have a hard time going anywhere else in cash games tonight.
Rinne – (3 weeks: 4-1-1/1.32/0.954) He is crazy expensive but he is worth it. He is in play every time he’s on the slate, especially at home. Tampa Bay will pepper him with shots and at the rate he has been playing all season, he will continue to stop them. TB is talented and certainly can score with the best of them (#1 in scoring over the last three weeks), so I would reserve Pekka for GPP or hybrid-type contests.
Andersen – (3 weeks: 5-2-0/1.44/0.959) Freddy has gotten past whatever was holding him back in October. Because he has been on a mission since November started. He has tightened his game up and the Leafs defense has also tightened up. Looking at the other side of this game Bobrovsky is also in play for GPP’s. Both goalies have been hot in recent weeks which leads me to keep both team’s skaters to GPP only
Honorable Mention: Hutton (love him for GPP – scary in cash), Khudobin, Allen, Hellebuyck
GOAL PREDICTION: Mike Hoffman
Remember guys, always confirm the starters after morning skate.
I generally have this article out in the morning. If you guys have any questions reach out to me on Twitter or in Slack. Join the DFS Army today by using Promo Code PUCK to save 10% off your membership for life.