BigMarley3’s DraftKings UFC Breakdown
Event – UFC Fight Night 139 Location – Denver, Colorado
Thanks for purchasing my UFC FN 139 full DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in the mile-high city. DraftKings has lowered their contest sizes a lot for this card, so I won’t be playing a ton of GPPs this week. I am going to look to build the bankroll with cash games, then I will make my usual ~20 lineups and to chase the big prize of the week. The main tourney is an $8 entry and pays $15k to 1st. That is the main GPP I will be chasing this week. As always, I will be in the 3-entry max and single entry GPPs as well. However, most of my play this week will be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, lets break down these UFC Denver fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Mark De La Rosa $9,000 vs Joby Sanchez $7,200
Mark De La Rosa (-230) has a 10-1 record and is 1-1 in the UFC. He is an interesting prospect and is a very technical, well-rounded fighter. He is a good boxer with a snappy jab and nice straight punches. He is light on his feet and likes to control the center and walk opponents down. He has a high guard and good head movement and is much more defensively sound than Sanchez. He likes to throw 3-4 punch combinations when he closes the distance. He doesn’t throw first much, instead he waits to counter and will counter with long combos. He is very fast and explosive. He will rarely throw kicks and is predominately a boxer on the feet. He doesn’t have heavy power and only has 1 KO/TKO victory. He has a good chin and has never been finished with strikes.
He is a good wrestler and is very strong in the clinch. He landed a clinch throw and spun Elias Garcia around and dumped him when he went for a flying triangle. He has good timing on his doubles and likes to take fighters down when they are near the fence. He can be taken down, but he has good defense and scrambling ability as well as having a great guard. He has very fast hips and will throw up triangles and armbars very quickly. He almost got Tim Elliot in multiple submissions in his debut off his back. He has good control on top and great back takes where he has awesome rear naked chokes. He will get the body triangle and really straighten out his opponent and tighten it up. He has 6 submissions and is coming off a rear naked choke victory and his first UFC win. De La Rosa needs to walk down Sanchez and not give him space. If he can use his boxing to stalk Sanchez to the cage where he can implement his grappling, he should be successful.
Joby Sanchez (+190) has an 11-3 record and is 1-3 in the UFC. Sanchez will be getting a chance to redeem himself, after a first round loss in his UFC return last fight. He won not one, but two DWTNCS fights to finally earn his way back to the UFC, but things didn’t go as planned in the first fight. He was finished in round one, and now he needs a win here on short notice to preserve his UFC career. Sanchez is a well-rounded fighter with good striking. He likes to get inside with his boxing, where he has fast hands and will work with hook combinations both to the body and the head. He has a solid low leg kick, and he will throw it after his straight right hand. He has a decent jab, and when he wants to can use footwork and cut angles moving and landing from the outside. He has a strong left hook, and good power on that shot in the pocket. He also will throw a nice high kick that he dropped Wilson Reis with, and he can sneak it into a combination making it tricky to see. Sanchez doesn’t have big power and is more of a volume fighter. He likes to melt fighters over the course of three rounds. He has 4 KO/TKOs but a lot of those are from ground & pound. He has a questionable chin, and although he has only been finished one time via strikes, he has gotten rocked and dropped a few times.
Sanchez is definitely more of a grappler. He likes to stalk his opponents to the cage close the distance and tie up with his opponents. He does a good job of digging for double under hooks and pushing his opponents against the cage. He likes to work with short punches, and knees in this position before setting up the take down. He has strong double legs in that position. On top he has good passing ability. He likes the half guard position, where he has good control and can posture up and land ground & pound. He likes to grab the guillotine from that position and roll into full mount where he will throw hard ground & pound until opponents give their back. He has a good rear naked choke, and also will stay active with G&P from the back mount. He can be taken down himself, and his take down defense isn’t that great. He does have an active bottom game, good sweeps, and switches on take down attempts as well as being hard to hold down. He got his back taken and rear naked choked very early in round one in his last fight, and whenever he gets his UFC opportunity he seems to choke. He has 4 submissions and has just been submitted one time himself. I think Sanchez should try to keep this fight standing and out strike De La Rosa.
I always like to target the first fight of the night. Most of the time, this is where the weakest competition is fighting, and you can find fighters making more mistakes. It’s also nice to know right away how your night is going to go after the first fight. If you lose, you can chase the Televised slate to maybe save your night. If you win, and score highly, then the sweat starts early. With this fight, I don’t think it is the least skilled fight on the card, and the odds say this fight is more likely to go to a decision. So, I will have less of the first fight than usual, but I still do want small exposure to both sides here. I think De La Rosa is the better fighter here and I think he can win a striking battle for a decision or pick up another submission win. I don’t see him knocking Sanchez out, but I think he can land enough strikes to possibly get 10x in a decision win. I do think he has first round finish protentional with a submission as well, and that would be over 10x if he can do that. With Sanchez, I think he will have to get the fight to the ground and stay on top to have a chance of winning here. I don’t see him winning a striking battle because I think De La Rosa will be more active with the 3-4 punch combos he throws. He is also more accurate and has better defense on the feet, so I think we have to favor De La Rosa on the feet. Sanchez does have an 83.33% takedown accuracy, and if he can get on top of De La Rosa I think he is in play for a submission of his own. He could also grind out a decision if that is the case, but I have a hard time seeing him get takedowns for 3 rounds, so we would be wanting the submission if rostering him.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be De La Rosa. I think he is the better fighter and I see him getting Sanchez’s back at some point in this fight and getting a choke. The issue with him is that he is priced at $9k, so we will probably need that choke to happen, and happen early, to be on the winning lineup. I don’t feel confident in that being the outcome, and I don’t think a decision will get us 100+ points from either guy. I am going to be underweight on this fight as a whole, but I do want a lineup or two with each guy. If you have a preference, then I think you just fade the side you don’t like. I do feel much safer picking De La Rosa here, I just like other fighters more in that price range. I don’t think this fight will make my cash LU, but Sanchez could be a viable punt at $7.2k.
Winner- Mark De La Rosa via 2nd round submission
Eric Shelton $8,200 vs Joseph Morales $8,000
Eric Shelton (-115) has a record of 11-5 and he is 1-3 in the UFC. Shelton is a great athlete and seems to have all the skills and intangibles to be a great fighter, but he hasn’t put it all together. He is training at ATT for this camp, so maybe we will see improvements in his execution and mind set. Shelton is a solid striker. He has a good jab, and a solid straight right hand. He likes to double up with the jab and then throw a right hook. He likes to pressure and stalk his opponents to the cage. He can get stuck just walking down his opponent and staring at them. He isn’t a high output striker, and even when he seems to have a significant striking advantage he won’t let go enough. He just tries to pressure and pull fighters into his power, but if they won’t throw then he doesn’t either. He has a nice uppercut. He has good defense, nice footwork, and a high guard. He will rarely throw kicks and is predominantly a boxer. He doesn’t have huge power, and only has two TKOs in his career. He has a good chin and has never been finished.
Shelton is a strong grappler as well. He is a good wrestler, and very explosive with his double and single leg shots. His shots come very fast, and he does a good job of timing them when fighters are off balance. He is good in the clinch and has strong body locks. On top he isn’t great, but he does throw short punches and elbows and has decent control. He likes to get to the back and he has a good rear naked choke. He can be taken down himself and was taken down 5 times in his last fight. Shelton is hard to hold down and does a good job of getting back up to his feet, especially against the cage. He isn’t dangerous off his back with submissions, but he does have some decent sweeps. He has 5 submissions himself and has never been submitted in his career. Shelton is always in close fights and has lost 4 split decisions. He is 3-5 in decisions in his career.
Joseph Morales (-105) has a 9-1 record and he is 1-1 in the UFC. Morales is a long-time staple of Team Alpha Male, and Uriah Faber is very high on him. He will be taking on Eric Shelton who has trained with TJ Dillashaw in the past, but has now found a home at ATT. Both fighters lost their last match and need to bounce back with a win here. Joseph Morales is a very strong Jiu-Jitsu player, and decent boxer. He has quick hands, a good jab and strong straight right hand. He will throw nice inside and outside leg kicks as well as oblique kicks to the knee. He has a good right hook and rear leg body kick. He has solid footwork and does a good job of controlling the center of the cage. Morales is always trying to fake level changes and close the distance to land hooks. He keeps heavy forward pressure and does have good power for a 125er. He has two KO/TKOs and was finished for the first time in his career in his last match.
Morales is a very strong grappler, and great off his back. He doesn’t have great take down defense, and he likes being off his back. He is extremely flexible and has very fast hips. He has nasty triangles and he does a great job of using the triangle on the head to reverse position and get on top. He will attack with a triangle arm bar as well. He has great back takes and can take them from very odd positions. He has a nice butterfly guard and good butterfly sweeps. He has a very strong guillotine as well. He has 5 submission victories himself, 3 rear naked chokes, a triangle, and a guillotine. He has never been submitted himself. He has strong cardio and can go for all three rounds. Morales needs to keep heavy pressure and close the space on the feet with boxing combinations. I think he is the lesser athlete, so he needs to try to limit range striking time in the fight. I’m not sure if he will be able to take Shelton down, but I could even see him pulling guard and think he wants this fight on the mat.
I think this is the closest fight on the card, and I don’t have a strong read on it. I do think it is a good fight and should be fun to watch, but it’s not a fight I am wanting to invest in. I don’t feel confident picking either of these guys, and I don’t want to throw away LUs by picking both. I have gone back and forth on my pick, but right now I am leaning with Shelton. I think he will be able to be the fighter who controls where this fight goes, and I think he can win a decision whether this fight takes place on the feet or on the ground. However, I think Morales is the more dangerous fighter, and I think he can finish this fight on the feet or on the ground. So, I am likely going to pick Shelton to win this fight, but Morales is the better GPP play and he is $200 cheaper on DK. The odds for Fight Goes To Decision are currently -215, and Shelton is my pick if this does go the distance. For him to score highly in a decision, I think we will need him to get takedowns and do a lot of work on top, but Morales is dangerous on the ground, so I am not sure if he will want to take it there. If this fight stays standing for 3-rounds, I don’t see him paying off his salary.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be Morales for his finishing upside. His ITD line is +290 compared to a +560 from Shelton. If we can get a finish at $8k from Morales, then we would have a shot at being on the winning LU. However, since I am picking Shelton to win the fight I am likely going to have little exposure to this fight as a whole and may even fade it completely. I won’t be starting any LUs here, but I think if you have $8.2k or $8k left on the table then either guy is fine there. The way I would prefer to do it if you have $8.2k left, is to just make the same LU twice and use both guys. I don’t want to throw many LUs away, so I will likely only have 1 or 2 LUs I would do that with, but I think that is the safest play in GPPs. I will be rooting for a low scoring decision though, personally.
Winner- Eric Shelton via Split Decision
Davi Ramos $9,500 vs John Gunther $6,700
Davi Ramos (-970) has an 8-2 record and he is 2-1 in the UFC. Ramos has been very impressive inside the UFC already, and he is the heavy favorite in this matchup. Ramos is a big strong explosive fighter with knockout power. He is a short and compact fighter, who can close the distance, and land left and right hooks. He likes to throw the overhand right a lot and will try to set it up behind a jab or left straight. He has big power in his kicks, thudding body kicks, and powerful leg kicks. He should be much more active with his kicking game. He likes to hang back and counter his opponent. He will not use much footwork or fakes and feints, but rather just slowly walk opponents down and stay in their face to try to get them to throw so he can counter with a flurry or overhand right. He has decent head movement. He has a nice and powerful jab when he gets fighters moving backwards, as well as a nice step in knee. He has a nice uppercut left hook combo. He throws an explosive flying knee, and he can finish the fight with it. He is improving every fight with his standup, and last fight he was using his jab and threw many more punching combinations. He is going to have the massive striking advantage in this fight. Ramos only has 1 KO/TKO, but he definitely packs enough power to finish a fight. He has a strong chin and has never been finished.
Ramos is a multi-time ADCC Submission Wrestling gold medalist. He is a black belt and has some of the best BJJ in the sport. Ramos is not a bad wrestler and does a good job of mixing up his take downs. He does a good job of catching kicks and countering with punches or getting the takedown. He has decent double leg shot, but it can be telegraphed at times. He has nice body lock trip takedowns and has a lot of strength in the clinch position. He lands nice knees there and can control opponents and bank time. In top position he is very heavy and has great pressure passes to side control or mount. He will search for the arm triangle from half guard. He looks for submissions and keeping position for ground and pound, and when he postures up he can land heavy shots. If he gets on his opponent’s back it will be very hard for them to survive that, seeing as he has won his last two fights via rear naked choke. Ramos has a good guillotine too, and if John Gunther shoots in sloppily I think he will lock it up. I see Ramos being very aggressive with his striking early, and forcing an ill-advised shot out of Gunther, where he can snatch the neck and find the submission.
John Gunther (+635) has an undefeated professional record of 5-0 and he is 1-0 in the UFC. Gunther is one of the least skilled fighters I have seen in the UFC in a long time. He has very poor striking, and his grappling is not great. Gunther is purely a grinder, he is extremely tough, and can walk through hell and continue to push forward. He breaks his opponents with forward pressure and wins fights on sheer will and heart. Gunther doesn’t really have hands to speak of. He will throw the occasional jab, and in close will throw punches if forced in the pocket. In space he really only throws inside and outside leg kicks, while trying to find his opening to close the distance. He has a great chin and is undeterred by blood or being rocked. He can be covered in blood, and that just means he is in his element. He doesn’t have power on the feet and there is very little danger of him getting a standing knockout. He has never been finished by strikes himself.
Gunther likes to back opponents up, close the distance and get in the clinch or shoot a reactive double leg. In the clinch, he is alright and will get his opponent’s back to the cage where he has solid control, and he will work for body locks and trip take downs. He can get sloppy with his double leg shots, and he was put to sleep with a guillotine in 20 seconds on the TUF show. On top he has good control, and he does a good job of getting his opponents flat on the mat. He will move into mount where he will throw ground & pound until he can get a TKO. He isn’t a big submission threat on top and really prefers to just use ground & pound. He does have one guillotine victory in his career. In his amateur career I see he has a few arm bars and a triangle choke, so I have yet to see him off his back, but he does have some submissions there. This is an awful matchup for Gunther as he probably won’t want to mess around on the ground with Ramos and is out gunned on the feet. Gunther needs to take a beating in round one survives, and hope Ramos gasses out in that Colorado air, and he can take the last two rounds. If Ramos is exhausted in round 3 maybe Gunther can find a finish, but I am hard pressed to imagine that happening.
I don’t like to use the “L word”, but this sure does seem like a lock. John Gunther is not UFC level IMO, and he has been able to get by with his undefeated record by grinding fighters out and having the heavier pace and top game. He got 8 takedowns in his UFC debut which got him the win there, and 92.5 DK points. Other than that, and him seeming like a real nice guy, there is really nothing good to say about this guy. His grinder style just isn’t going to work on a BJJ black belt like Ramos. Ramos is going to be the fighter with the better standup, and the more powerful standup, so he could win the fight on the feet with a finish or a decision. However, I think this is going to be an easy submission for Ramos. We did see Gunther get submitted in 17 seconds on TUF, and this could be a fast submission too if Gunther comes in with the same game plan. I think Ramos can get the sub no matter who gets the takedown. I just think the ground will be Ramos’ world here and Gunther does not have good enough striking to win on the feet. He would have to grind out one of the best BJJ guys in the sport to get a victory here, and I don’t see that happening.
On DraftKings, Ramos is the play. He is the most expensive fighter on the card, so he will need to score highly, but I think he will. He has the highest ITD odds on the card at -350, and his odds for wins in round 1 are -155. So, I think we are getting over 10x here with Ramos at $9.5k and he is one of my favorite plays on the card. I think he is a lock for cash games, but he will be chalk in GPPs, so if you fade him that is where it should be. I think he is too good of a play to fade here though. If you are making 1-3 LUs, I think all-in on Ramos is the play. Maybe even with 5 LUs. I will have over 50% Ramos this week to still get my leverage on the field. I think he is the safest play to get ~100-points and this is a tough card to lock in wins. I will pay up for Ramos in most LUs and take what should be an easy win.
Winner- Davi Ramos via 1st round submission
Devonte Smith $9,100 vs Julian Erosa $7,100
Devonte Smith (-230) has an 8-1 record and he is making his official UFC debut in this matchup. Both fighters are coming off big upset victories on the DWTNCS. Devonte Smith earned a very quick KO, while Julian Erosa had a tough round one and bounced back with a 2nd round KO. Devonte Smith is 3-0 since going to Factory X and this is his second full camp there. This fight will be at 155 and Erosa is normally a 145er, so Smith should have a size advantage here. He is extremely athletic and has heavy power. Smith has a fast jab and a nice one two. He closes a lot of distance with his straight right hand and it’s tight and accurate. He is very fast with his punches and does a solid job of mixing it up going body head with the jab. He will throw a left hook followed with a jab. He has a long reach and has gotten better at staying at his range using lateral footwork. He will throw uppercuts in close range and does a solid job of timing it when opponents level change. He keeps a good pace, and forward pressure walking fighters down. He can lean back at times to try to avoid punches instead of moving his feet, which could potentially cause him issues against combinations strikers. He was using a strong low leg kick in his last fight which I hadn’t seen him use as much previously. He has big power and has finished 7 of his 8 wins via (T)KO. He has a strong chin, he has been KO/TKO’d once, but that was more due to having a poor gas tank and getting caught in a position on the ground. He is going to be a dangerous guy if he continues to improve and implement new techniques in his striking game.
Smith is improving as a grappler, but he is more of an anti-grappler. Trying to use his wrestling in reverse and keep it on the feet. He is improving his footwork, and not allowing fighters to close the distance or back him towards the cage as frequently. He has strong hips and does a good job of getting his back to the cage and digging an under hook to circle off. He finished Joe Lowry in his last fight with nasty elbows to the head when Lowry was attempting a double leg against the cage. He does a good job of sprawling, and sniffing shots out and stuffing them. He will go for double legs himself and has big explosive slams if he can get his hands locked. He has devastating G&P when he’s on top and he can put people unconscious with those shots. His cardio was a problem in his one loss against John Gunther, but Gunther is a guy who eats big shots and continues to press forward with a grinding wrestling style. That was also prior to joining Factory X and becoming a full-time fighter. Smith is going to be the faster more powerful fighter in there. I think Smith needs to use those low leg kicks he was using in his last fight here, and then throw his punches when he sees the openings. He has the power to knock out Erosa if he lands clean on his chin as we’ve seen Erosa KO’d before.
Julian Erosa (+190) has a 22-5 record and he is 1-1 in the UFC. Erosa is getting a second chance in the UFC, after a failed first stint after his time on TUF. Erosa is a very tall FW at 6’0, and it makes him an awkward matchup for a lot of fighters. Erosa is a striker, who likes to come forward and pressure opponents. He likes to counter strike. He will keep forward pressure on his opponents, and even taunt and stick his hands up trying to goad his opponent into a war. He keeps his hands low, and it makes his punches harder to see, but also easier for him to get hit clean. He has a decent jab, and good wide hooks. He has a nice left hook, catching fighters while circling away with it. He has good front kicks to the body, strong lead knees and jump knees. He will throw inside and outside leg kicks. He has good cardio and he is comfortable in a war. He landed a nasty head kick, in his last fight to close the show. He is dangerous, and he can change the fight with one kick or knee. He has a good chin still in my opinion, even though he can get hit clean and knocked out. He seems to like to counter, but he can get impatient when there is a lack of action and close the distance with his hands low and get clipped. He has been finished 3 times before in his career and has 10 KO/TKOs himself.
Erosa is a dangerous jiu-jitsu player, but not a strong wrestler. He doesn’t use offensive wrestling much, but he will go for double legs or body locks if he is getting pieced up. Fighters seem to be able to take him down very easily when they try, but he is dangerous off his back with his grappling. He has nice sweeps, and his length causes fighters problems in his guard. He makes it difficult to pass, and he has 9 submissions himself. He has 3 triangle chokes, a guillotine, and even a D’arce choke. He has never been submitted himself. Erosa has good cardio, and the experience of fighting higher level fighters in the UFC. Erosa needs to push the pace and try to land a shot on Smith that changes the tide of the fight. I don’t think he is quite the striker that Smith is, but he knows how to stay calm facing a storm and find a moment and take it.
This is a fight I am looking to use in DK. The line for FDGTD is -260, and I think that is a bit low for a short notice fight with two guys who don’t like going to decision. I think Erosa is the more well-rounded and technical fighter here, but I think it is a bad matchup for him. Smith will be the bigger fighter in this matchup and he has very heavy hands. We have seen Erosa get (T)KO’d by guys like Artem Lobov and Teruto Ishihara, and Smith hits much harder than both of them. I think if Smith can land on Erosa then this fight could be over quickly. Smith wins ITD is currently lined at -135 and I think that is too low. I think him winning by (T)KO is the most likely outcome here and I think it should be over -150, personally. I see Smith dominating this fight early and I think he will get an early finish. However, the longer this fight goes, the more of a chance Erosa will have to win. I think he could pull off a submission from his back in this fight, and he could also wear Smith out and finish him with strikes on the feet late in the fight. He will just have to weather an early storm to have any chance at those wins. I don’t think he will get an early sub if he is put on his back, I think Smith’s GNP would be too much in round 1. However, we have seen Smith lose to John Gunther because he gassed himself out and was finished late. So, I think it is finish or bust for Smith here.
On DraftKings, Smith is my preferred play and he is one of my favorite GPP plays of the week. I don’t trust him in cash, but I think his upside is great for GPPs and I think he gets an early knock out with over 100-points. I think he has one of the highest ceilings on this card and he could possibly outscore Ramos here. I would rather have Ramos because I’m much more confident in him winning, but Smith is probably my next favorite play in the $9k range and I think if you want to fade the Ramos chalk you can go with two of these fighters in this range instead. I also have some interest in Erosa here because I think if he can weather the storm then he can for sure get an upset win here. If he can get a finish in any round at $7.1k then he has a chance of being on the winning LU. Erosa is a decent fighter, he just can get cracked on the feet and Smith is not the guy you want throwing bombs at you if that is the case. I have a hard time seeing him weather the storm, but it is possible, and I want some hedge LUs in case he does. This is one of the fights I like to target the most on the card and it will be in over half my LUs. I’ll be much heavier on the Smith side, but I don’t think Erosa is a fade here if you are multi-entering. I don’t love either side for cash games, but I would much rather have the floor from Smith than I would the floor from Erosa.
Winner- Devonte Smith via 1st round (T)KO
Beneil Dariush $8,700 vs Thiago Moises $7,500
Beneil Dariush (-140) is 14-4-1 with a UFC record of 8-4-1. He has been in a career tailspin. The once super promising prospect hasn’t won a fight since 2016 and is 0-2-1 in his last three fights. He lost to Alex Hernandez in like 20 seconds, which looked like a much worse loss at the time, but now we all know how good Hernandez is. Dariush is a very explosive, powerful fighter with well-rounded skills. Dariush is a veteran at this point having 13 UFC fights, this is the best fighter Moises has ever fought, but the same cannot be said for Dariush. He has fought a who’s who of the UFC’s LW division and has had mixed success. He has wins over high level fighters such as Tony Martin, Carlos Diego Ferrería, Jim Miller, Michael Johnson, James Vick, and Rashid Magomedov. His losses have only come to top 15 fighters, and I hope he still has the confidence that he can be one of the best in the world. Dariush is a good pressure striker. He has a nice jab and a strong body kick. He also has a nice straight left hand and good left hook. He closes distance very well with his punches. He likes to use a jab or straight left hand to head kick combination. He has nice superman punches and spinning back fists. He is more of a counter striker, and he likes to anticipate shots then block and return. He has nice step in knees to the body. He has big power and only 3 finishes via strikes, but since moving to Kings MMA he’s much more powerful. He has a questionable chin. He got flatlined very badly against Edson Barboza, and most recently knocked out in less than 30 seconds. He has been finished 3 times and we need to see how his confidence is coming in here.
Dariush is a very strong grappler. He is good in the clinch, he does an excellent job of getting the Muay Thai plum and landing big knees. He does a great job of digging under hooks and is strong with his clinch control against the cage. He has strong clinch takedowns and will shoot doubles against the cage. He is an elite BJJ player and on top is very dangerous. He throws heavy elbows and huge ground & pound. He also is a black belt and has won the no gi world championships as a blue, purple, and brown belt. He is very hard to take down or control in the clinch himself but does get tired in grapple heavy matches and can start to get grinded out. Dariush has 6 submissions. He has good arm triangles and rear naked chokes. He has been submitted one time in his career, and Moises is very good on the ground as well. He is solid off his back he will attack with omaplata sweeps and is active with subs. Dariush needs a win to stay in the UFC here, and will come in in great shape. Dariush needs to close the distance, get inside and land those bombs. He should also work in the clinch against the cage and gain control time.
Thiago Moises (+120) has an 11-2 record and he will be making his long-awaited UFC debut in this fight. At only 23 years old Moises has racked up a ton of high level experience vs good competition. He has a lot of experience in championship fights and has fought 4 title fights in RFA/LFA winning 3. Moises has a good jab, and a very nice straight right hand. He also has a nice right hook, and he is powerful. He is a slow starter, but he picks up as the fight goes on. He has nasty kicks, to the leg, body and round kicks. He is athletic and will throw spinning heel kicks to the body and head, as well as jumping round house kicks. He is quick with the techniques and stays defensively sound before and after throwing them. He had a pretty nasty head kick in his last fight to set up his finish. He was doing a better job in his last match of skipping into range with a jab and using better footwork, but in the past, he lets fighters get inside on him and is a bit flat footed. He can get passive at times and just circle, which is kind of odd. He definitely has big power, and he can drop fighters with his right hook. He only has 3 KO/TKOs, but he has dropped and submitted fighters. He has a good chin and never been finished.
Thiago Moises is a submission specialist with a black belt in BJJ. He is a strong fighter, and he is good in the clinch with knees and elbows. He has good body lock take downs, and he will shoot doubles against the cage. He isn’t a super active seeker of the takedown and seems to prefer to strike. When he does get on top, he is aggressive and prefers position over submission. He can be taken down himself and he is alright on his back, but not super dangerous. He has 4 submissions and is definitely a finisher with 8 of his 11 wins being finishes. He starts slowly, and it makes it hard for him to win decisions. He has good cardio and gets stronger as the fight goes on. He is taking a sizeable step up in competition here, and he needs to really show some game to earn a win here.
This is an interesting fight. It’s hard to tell what Dariush we are going to get after his last three fights. He was KO’d in two of those three fights and now he is fighting a talented prospect who I think has better striking and more power. Moises is also very solid on the ground, but I think that is Dariush’s best path to victory here. He is solid on the feet as well, but after being KO’d for a 3rd time, I don’t think standing with Moises is the best idea. I think Dariush can get a submission or grind this fight out on the ground though. If Dariush can get takedowns in this fight and keep top control, then I think it is his fight to lose. I don’t think he gets submitted in this fight, so if it does take place on the ground then I think he is the rightful favorite. However, if he wants to stand for 15-minutes, I would favor Moises, and I think he could finish him as well.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is the newcomer, Thiago Moises. I am impressed with what I have seen from this young kid and I think he can win this fight. I think a KO is his best shot, but at $7.5k I am willing to take that risk. This fight is close on the betting line, but we are getting some value here on DraftKings with Moises being $1,200 cheaper. That is another reason he is my preferred play. I do favor Dariush slightly on the ground, but I think Moises is solid enough to keep this fight standing for more than Dariush would like. I have gone back and forth on this pick, but I am going to lean with the Moises to pull off the upset. I am not confident in this pick, so I will not be going super heavy on Moises, but he is one of my favorite underdog picks of the card. I don’t care for Darisuh at $8.7k, but I do expect him to be low owned and that makes him a solid GPP play if you are chasing that $15k first place prize. Aside from that tournament, I don’t have any interest at Dariush and his elevated price tag. I think Moises is a solid cash play as well. Not sure what I will be going with yet myself, but he is definitely in play.
Winner – Thiago Moises via 2nd round (T)KO
Chas Skelly $8,400 vs Bobby Moffett $7,800
Chas Skelly (-105) has a 17-3 record with a UFC record of 6-3. Skelly is a well-rounded fighter and a guy who has been around the block in the UFC. Skelly has taken some time off and hasn’t fought in about a year and a half. He had Tommy John surgery on his right arm which is a major injury, so we have to wonder if he’ll come back the same. He is a decent striker, and dangerous in close range. He has a nice jab and an accurate straight right hand. He will throw a wide lead left hook followed by a fast-straight right hand right down the pipe. He isn’t the fastest fighter, and opponents are able to counter his straight punches with tight hooks. He also can throw from a little too far out at times and duck his head leaving him available for knees and upper cuts. He has allowed fighters to close the distance on him and get inside much too easily in previous fights, and he needs to have corrected that for this matchup. He doesn’t throw many kicks, but he will get wild to close the distance at times and throw techniques such as flying knees and jump kicks. He needs to be going forward and controlling the center of the cage in this fight. Skelly is dangerous in close with front knees uppercuts and elbows. He is deceptively fast in close and can catch fighters. He isn’t a huge power guy with only 2 career KO/TKOs. He is a very tough guy and has only been finished one time in his career and he had an injury early in that fight.
Skelly is a wrestler, and him and Moffett have similar styles. Skelly likes to close the distance and get in the clinch where he can get double under hooks and get takedowns. He has nice trips in the clinch and good double leg shots. He will shoot singles against the cage as well and is persistent with his attempts. Once he gets it to the ground he is also very slick with his submission game. He is active and always looking to finish the fight on the ground. He has good top control and is a good scrambler. He does a nice job of floating on top and keeping top position. He has been taken down before in a fight vs Darren Elkins, where he was able to reverse and get top position or up to his feet by attacking the legs. He is also good at taking the back in 50-50 positions on the ground and a very opportunistic fighter. He has a great rear naked choke, and an awesome squeeze. He put Maximo Blanco to sleep very quickly with an anaconda choke. He is someone you need to respect and that is going to go in there and go for broke. He has 10 career submissions and finished 13 of his 17 wins. Skelly has solid cardio, but he does seem to get tired in the later rounds of wrestling heavy fights. Skelly is going to want to pressure Moffett on the feet and be the aggressor. He needs to control the center of the cage use his long-range boxing combinations, and then land knees and short shots in close to make Moffett pay for closing the distance. If he can keep this fight on the feet, and be the fighter going forward he has a good chance to win here.
Bobby Moffett (-115) has a 12-3 record and he will be making his official UFC debut in this fight. This is a very fun fight. Bobby Moffett had a dominant victory on DWTNCS, and he has a tough matchup in his debut vs Chas Skelly. Skelly is a tough veteran who has a lot of UFC experience. Moffett is pretty well rounded, but definitely grappling heavy. He is pretty athletic and big for the weight class. He has a good leaping right hook, and nice leg kicks. He has good in and out movement, and he is in perpetual forward motion stalking his opponents to the fence. He has a nice left hook right hook combo, and he will also throw a right hook head kick combo. His head movement isn’t bad, and he is very durable. He has only been finished one time, and in my opinion that was a bad stoppage. He isn’t a big power striker himself with only 1 career TKO.
Moffett is a very good wrestler, and a submission artist. He is very strong in the clinch with body lock takedowns, and he also likes to shoot singles and doubles when fighters backs are near the cage. Once he is on top he works very quickly, and has great guard passing. He does a solid job of jumping right into side control, where he will unload with heavy elbows and hammerfists. He has good control in that position and is able to float into a wrestling ride when opponents try to get out. He has a great mount and feels like a boulder on top of opponents. He is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and very dangerous with chokes. He has nice arm triangles and rear naked chokes, but his favorite choke is the D’arce. He can catch opponents in it both when they attempt to shoot on him or when he’s in top position. That makes him dangerous to shoot takedowns against along with him being a strong wrestler. He has great cardio and is always working in top position. He has great positional awareness as he just mauls guys. He has 8 submissions and has never been submitted in his career. Moffett is going to want to get on the inside and grind out Skelly. Skelly has been susceptible to pressure wrestlers in his career with 2 losses to Darren Elkins and Jason Knight. Moffett is going to be the better athlete and faster guy in my opinion. He needs to use that to his advantage and keep heavy pressure on Skelly. Skelly is going to want to stay in the center and box in my opinion, but if Moffett can back him up and take him down he could potentially find a submission or just grind out a decision.
This is an interesting fight because both fighters have similar styles and do most of their work on the ground. It’s hard to say who will have the advantage because both guys will want to make it dirty and be on top when it hits the ground. Whoever is on top, will win the fight. I don’t think either guy gets submitted, but whoever can get top control will win the rounds and I think we will see a 15-minute back and forth decision here with both guys having their moments. On the feet, I would favor Skelly, but neither guy is very impressive on the feet. They both like to grind out fights and look for submissions. Since it is such a close fight stylistically, I am not confident in picking either guy to be successful with that. The one thing I do like is the value we are getting with Moffett on DK. The betting line is pretty much even, but on DK Moffett is $600 cheaper. That is what puts him in play in all formats and that is probably what is swaying my pick in this fight.
Moffett is my preferred play on DraftKings. I will likely fade Skelly here because I don’t want to invest much into this fight and I would rather just take the value we are getting if I am going to use this fight. I am worried about this fight spending too much time against the cage though with little points happening in those cases. If they are just grinding against the cage, then we aren’t getting significant strike or takedown points. So, that is the worst-case scenario. I do think the takedowns will come, but all the time they spend against the fence will take away from the points the winner will get. If this fight stays standing, then it will not be high scoring and I would fully fade the fight if I knew that were going to be the case. If we are using this fight, we are hoping that we picked the guy who will spend more time in top control and hopefully we can rack up takedown and advance points. I am going to lean Moffett to be that guy, but not with any real confidence. We have seen Elkins grind out Skelly and I think Moffett can do the same thing. Skelly is just the more experienced fighter who has fought tougher competition, so it won’t be an easy task. We do need underdogs in our lineups though, so Moffett will make my player pool for that reason. I don’t love this fight for cash games, but Moffett would be the only cash play I would think about of the two and that is just for the line value.
Winner – Bobby Moffett via Split Decision
Ashley Yoder $8,600 vs Amanda Cooper $7,600
Ashley Yoder (-145) has a 5-4 record and she is 0-3 in the UFC. Ashley Yoder vs Amanda Bobby Cooper is potentially a loser leaves town match. Both girls are coming off losses to Makenzie Dern, and in need of a win. Yoder is a scrappy chick, and she always fights tough. Yoder is long and tries to accentuate it, but she isn’t a great striker and a bit flat footed. She will throw a jab and a straight right hand, her straight right hand looked improved and less loopy against Dern. She will throw front kicks to the body, and decent inside leg kicks. She is aggressive and will press forward, eat shots and continue to throw. She has a very good chin and will walk through shots undeterred. She doesn’t have great speed, and she can get hit clean with faster, tighter punches. I don’t see her wanting to strike much in this match and going for grappling. Yoder has never been finished and also doesn’t have great power with 0 KO/TKOs.
I see her trying to implement a grappling heavy game plan in this match and really push the pace. She was able to get a single leg in less than 10 seconds on Angela Hill, and I see her trying to do that here. She will try to get in the clinch and grind for takedowns there. She will dive on submissions, both standing and, on the ground, and is very aggressive trying to take the back. Her fight IQ isn’t great, and she will try to take the back too hastily at times and end up on bottom. On her back she is comfortable as well and will throw up subs but can be grinded out. She showed great take down defense against Dern and she is a strong wrestler. She has great cardio and is very scrappy. All three of her UFC fights have been close and she isn’t an easy out. She is very durable and mentally tough and does not quit. She needs to push the pace, wrestle, and get Cooper on her back and break her. I think Yoder is mentally stronger in my opinion and needs to make this a tough grinding fight to win here.
Amanda Cooper (+125) has a 3-4 record and she is 2-3 in the UFC. Amanda Bobby Cooper is a two times golden gloves winner and has solid boxing skills and footwork. She has decent head movement and will throw nice two punch combinations with a left-hand lead, followed with a right straight. She will change up the left hand from a jab to a straight to an uppercut, but she usually always follows up with the straight right. She will attack to the body with her left hand as well with solid hooks. She likes to be in space on the feet, and she will use a front kick or side kick to the body to try and keep it. She can come in sometimes with kicks she does not set up and leave her head right on the centerline and get cracked. She got dropped by Anna Elmose with a straight punch of an unset-up kick. She had fairly fast hands and when she gets her jab and straight right going it’s definitely effective. She will switch stances and use a nice left hook from southpaw. She doesn’t throw with big power and has never gotten a KO/TKO in her pro career. She has never been finished as a pro, but I have seen her dropped and wobbled by shots and wouldn’t say she has a great chin.
Cooper has solid double leg takedowns and will get takedowns in the clinch as well. She was able to take down Magana in her last fight and just dominate her. She does like to mix it in and almost all of her fights spend some time on the ground. On top she is solid and aggressive and will land big ground and pound while improving position. She does a good job of taking mount or the back, but sometimes can get too overaggressive on top and lose position. She sometimes looks like she has deep subs locked in and abandons them, and I don’t think she has great fight IQ. She will attack off her back. She will look for fast armbars and has solid sweeps from her guard, but if you pass her guard she is very vulnerable. She has heart and will take a beating without giving up. She took a beating before being submitted by Aspen Ladd, and she will fight to get out of submissions until there is no choice but to tap. All four of her losses are by submission. Cooper needs to try to keep this fight on the feet and keep her range and shoot under and get well timed take downs. Yoder is more comfortable in the chaos and she needs to fight at her pace to win this fight.
Here is the least talented fight on the card. Both ladies fought on the same season of TUF and they both now have 3 UFC losses. ABC does have 2 UFC wins while Yoder is still searching for her first. Whoever loses this fight is likely going to be cut afterwards, so they will both be fighting for their jobs in this matchup. Even though Yoder is winless in the UFC, I have been somewhat impressed with what I have seen in her losses. She looks to be much more improved from the TUF show than ABC is, and that is why I will be picking her to win. As I mentioned earlier, I do like to pick against the least skilled fights/fighters, so for that reason I like picking Yoder on DK as well. ABC has lost 4 fights in her career, and all 4 are via submission. She also only has a 20% takedown defense. Yoder has a 50% takedown accuracy and all 4 of her finishes are via submission, and she has never been finished herself. I think a submission win is in play for this fight and Yoder will make my player pool for that reason. It is hard to be too confident in a 5-4 fighter who has lost all 3 of her UFC fights and her 1 TUF fight, but there is a clear path to victory here. If she cannot get this fight to the ground, I think ABC will have the better boxing and that could win her a decision win, but I think it would be a back and forth fight with neither fighter having a big advantage.
On DraftKings, Yoder is the only fighter I am interested in rostering here. I do think she could get a submission in any round, and at $8.6k I think that makes her a solid play. There are a lot safer plays on the card though, so I won’t get too crazy with my ownership. I don’t think ABC gets a finish here though on the feet or on the ground, so I like Yoder in cash games as well because she has a solid floor in this fight. I am going to full fade ABC here, personally, and I will have over 25% Yoder and hoping she gets her 1st UFC victory that way.
Winner – Ashley Yoder via 2nd round submission
Luis Pena $9,300 vs Mike Trizano $6,900
Luis Pena (-185) has an undefeated professional record of 5-0 and he is 1-0 in the UFC. Pena is probably the most popular fighter to come off the TUF show. Violent Bob Ross is a huge LW standing 6’3 with a 78” reach. He is training at AKA with killers, so both fighters are at elite camps. Pena is only 3-0, but he fights with the composure of a veteran, and has a ton of upside. Luis Pena is an intimidating presence in the octagon, he has a wide stance, and likes to close the distance, and stalk opponents to the cage. He is also more of a fighter who likes to touch his opponents with shots, and pepper them instead of putting big power in all his shots. He throws a nice jab, and good straight right hand. He will throw hooks to the body as well and has nice front kicks to the body and head. He has good lead uppercuts, and his punches are very accurate. He has nice step in knees, and will grab the plum, and throw a knee to the head. He has awesome forward pressure, and he really makes the octagon small for his opponents. He breaks fighters with his pace and pressure. He can stand flat footed himself, and fighters are able to land longer punch combinations. He has a very strong chin and looked to throw with more power in his last match with Ritchie Smullen. He only has one TKO finish in his 5-fight career.
He is a good grappler and has been training with Khabib, so his wrestling should be improving. He likes to get fighters against the cage with his striking, get fighters thinking about his striking and level change and get double legs. He has good double legs when he gets his hands clamped, and on top he has strong ground & pound and good submissions. His length allows him to be very tricky on the ground, and he has fast hips and good sweeps. He was able to sweep Ritchie Smullen in his last fight and then catch a nasty guillotine choke after rocking him. He has a nice triangle and kimura and has 4 submission finishes. He has finished all his pro fights and is 5-0. I see Pena trying to control the center and land to the body early, and slow Trizano down. If he can get Trizano tired, he will be able to start to pick up the volume and try to take Trizano out.
Mike Trizano (+160) if a former TUF winner with an undefeated record of 7-0 and he is 1-0 in the UFC. Trizano is the TUF 27 winner, and he will be facing a fellow cast mate in Luis Pena who was the favorite to win but had to pull out due to injury. Trizano had a very lackluster win in the TUF finale, while Luis Pena had a brilliant performance on the same card. I am sure Trizano has a fire lit under him, as he is coming into this match as a big dog, even though he was the one who won the show. He is a Tiger Schulmann fighter, so he definitely has had a good camp environment and a lot of fighters to work with as you saw the plethora of Tiger Schulmann guys on UFC 230. Trizano is a technical striker. He has good inside and outside leg kicks to go along with a strong jab. He does a good job of keeping a high volume of shots out there, and just touching his opponents instead of winding up and throwing with huge power. He has a very nice check left hook and will land it to stop fighters forward motion and then circle back to the center of the cage. He has a nasty uppercut as well, with great timing and accuracy on it. He will throw a jab leg kick combination, and he really sits down on his leg kicks. He does a solid job of moving and using good head movement to try to be a hard target to hit. He is still too flat footed at times, and fighters can close the distance on him with punches or take down attempts. He is a composed guy out there, and he usually keeps the same deliberate pace all three rounds. He does possess decent power, but I would say he is definitely more of a volume guy. He has 3 KO/TKOs, and both fighters are undefeated, so he will come with confidence.
Trizano is a solid grappler, I don’t see him trying to wrestle much in this matchup, but he will need to have his defensive wrestling on point. He has good double leg take downs. When he takes fighters down, he is more worried about controlling the position, and winning the round than landing G&P or going for submissions. He likes to get into half guard where he feels heavy, and land short shots. He does have one rear naked choke in his career, but I haven’t seen him do much advancing of position and threatening with BJJ against higher level fighters in top position. He has good take down defense, especially if he can get his back against the cage, and he will look for guillotines or d’arces when fighters look to shoot in on him. When he does get taken down, he has an active guard, and looks to sweep and get on top. He has never lost as an amateur or pro and is riding a 14-fight win streak overall. I think Trizano will be looking to stay technical and throw a lot of leg kicks. Pena stands in a very wide stance and his front leg is there to be hit. He needs to keep his hands up, he tends to hold them low, and was dropped on TUF because of it. He also needs to stay in the center of the cage, and not let Pena back him up and take him down.
This is what I would have liked to have seen in the TUF 27 Finale. These are the two best fighters from that show and I am glad we get to see this fight play out. When I started this write-up, Pena was a -300 favorite with Trizano being the +250 dog. I had to come back to this towards the end of the write-up because the odds have shifted a good bit. Now Pena, is -185 with the comeback on Trizano at +160. I was thinking Trizano would be a decent play at the earlier odds because I figured he would be low owned. There is a lot of hype behind Pena, so I figured he would be somewhat chalky and we could get a close fight at low ownership and a very cheap price tag. Now with the new odds, I think Trizano is one of the better plays on the slate and now we won’t get him at low ownership. This line movement has thrown me off a bit, and now I’m thinking Pena is a solid play at his possible low ownership. I do think Pena is the better fighter here and if he were priced on DK with the new salaries I would like him as a play much more. However, this is a close fight and Trizano could get a decision win here.
On DraftKings, this is now one of my favorite fights to target on the card. I think Trizano is the best cash punt on the card with the odds value we are now getting. I also think he is a solid GPP play because he is only $6.9k and we will take any win at that salary. However, if this line movement is going to cause Pena to come in with low ownership, then I would want to up my exposure to him for that reason. Pena’s ITD line is +125 compared to Trizano’s +625, so Pena has the much higher ceiling. He also scored 117 DK points in his UFC debut, so the ceiling is definitely there with his game. It’s just tough to pay $9.3k for him if you are just making a few LUs. I would much rather find $200 and move up to Ramos. But, so will everyone else now, and that is what makes Pena interesting in big GPPs. I am looking to lower my GPP exposure to Trizano with the line movement because I think it could make him chalky, and I don’t want a chalky underdog with little upside. The line value is too good to fade him completely, but I’d rather be underweight to the field now. I think Pena can finish this fight in any round on the feet or the ground, but I think Trizano will need to win a decision to get his hand raised.
Winner – Luis Pena via Unanimous Decision
Maycee Barber $9,400 vs Hannah Cifers $6,800
Maycee Barber (-420) has an undefeated record of 5-0 and she is making her official UFC debut in this matchup. Barber will be making her UFC debut after a dominant victory on DWCS. Barber is only 20 years old and showed massive growth in her last fight from her previous ones. She will be fighting in Colorado where she trains and taking on UFC newcomer Hannah Cifers. She is a girl I see the UFC potentially getting behind and pushing if she is successful. Barber is very aggressive, and she has a nice check left hook and nice body kicks. She will go high with kicks as well, and she’s always coming forward and putting the pressure on fighters. Her kicks are the best part of her striking game, she throws a lot of inside leg kicks front and side kicks to the face and body. She does a good job of feinting and faking before closing the distance. She isn’t the greatest defensive striker and can lunge in and get hit with counters, but she’s tenacious and doesn’t mind being hit. She has two KO/TKOs, but she isn’t a power striker.
Barbers grappling is the best part of her game. She loves to crash the distance with punches, get in the clinch and grind. She has nice knees to the body and short shots to the head. She has good double leg take downs, and also has good trips and body locks in the clinch. Her top game is very strong, she will get to half guard and rain down hard elbows, attacking the body as well. She keeps a high volume of shots out there, and has nice pressure passes. She will punch and pass, and really loads up on big shots when she has opponents on their back. She is very strong with her take down defense and will turn it around and get double under hooks herself where she will get her own takedown. She has back to back ground and pound TKOs, and two submission victories as well, so she is a finisher when it hits the ground. She has phenomenal cardio and has been working with the best coaches for a long time. She has trained at many great camps such as Roufusport, Team Alpha Male, and now doing this camp at Factory X. She also will have Izzy Martinez in her corner for this fight, who is a great coach himself. I know some people may see that as a negative, but at only 20 years old I love it. She is getting many different looks and learning different techniques from renowned coaches. When she gets older I’m sure she will find a gym and stick with it and she will have gained the experience and knowledge of all the other coaches she worked with early in her career. Barber should try to get in Cifers face from the start walk her down with kicks, and then close the distance take her down and take her out.
Hannah Cifers (+335) has an 8-2 record and is making her UFC debut in this fight. Cifers is taking this fight on short notice and at an altitude that could be a huge factor. Cifers is coming off a big win in September and should be pumped to get her opportunity in the UFC. She is aggressive come forward striker. She has pretty solid hands, and will throw a jab or leg kick, but doesn’t follow it up with anything. She does have nice body kick and solid hooks. She will throw a nice check left hook to the head and has nice body shot hooks in close. She can get stuck on the outside and throw at air at times. She isn’t very fast, and she stands very upright making it easier to see her strikes coming. She pressures very heavy and has shown the ability to break fighters. She has decent power with 5 KO/TKOs and shown a good chin over her career never losing via strikes.
She seems to not be a very good grappler. She doesn’t have great clinch technique and will allow fighters to dig under hooks and push her against the cage. She is pretty strong and will land short knees and elbows while having solid take down defense. She isn’t a very active seeker of the takedown and not fought many girls who are wrestlers. Her upright stance and forward movement in my opinion make her very susceptible to singles and doubles. I haven’t seen her get a takedown or get taken down in any fights I have seen, but she has been submitted by Gillian Robertson. She isn’t a submission threat and has no submissions herself. She has shown good cardio, but she is taking this fight on short notice at an altitude against a cardio freak, so her cardio will really be tested. She needs to keep this fight standing and try to out box Barber. If she can catch her coming with a big shot and flurry she may be able to overwhelm the young fighter.
I think this is an interesting fight with the price point for both fighters. Maycee Barber is supposed to be the future and she is a big favorite here. But I don’t know if she is worth a $9.4k price tag or not. She does look like a solid fighter, and I think she is the better grappler here and will use that to try to get a win in her UFC debut. I think both fighters are sloppy on the feet, but Cifers looks to have heavier power and I would favor her on the feet. I think Cifers route to victory is to connect with a hard punch and try to win this fight via TKO. If she can’t get the TKO, I think Barber will get this fight to the ground and win the fight down there. I think she can win with a decision, submission, or TKO on the ground in this fight. The issue is that she is $9.4k on DK and only $100 less than Davi Ramos. I think she is going to need an early finish to pay that salary off and to be a better play than Ramos and/or other fighters in this $9k range. I think she does have a chance at scoring higher than these other fighters, but it will take multiple takedowns and/or that early finish.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be Cifers, just because I like her compared to the people around her salary more than I like Barber compared to the people around her salary. I do think both fighters will be lower owned, so I think they are in play for that reason. But overall this will not be a fight I am heavily exposed to. I think Barber should get a dominant win (if she doesn’t get TKO’d) but her ITD line is +150 compared to Ramos’ -350 ITD line. I would much rather have him over Barber in this spot and for that reason I won’t be able to afford much Barber. I think Cifers is a decent punt option and pivot away from Trizano, but I won’t have much exposure to her either.
Winner – Maycee Barber via 2nd round TKO
Germaine De Randamie $8,800 vs Raquel Pennington $7,400
GDR (-165) is a former UFC champion with a 7-3 record and she is 4-1 in the UFC. Germaine De Randamie, will be making her return after over a year and a half off. De Randamie claimed the belt in her last fight at 145, but now she has dropped back down to 135 and will be looking to make it 4 in a row. De Randamie is one of the best female Muay Thai fighters of all time and brings those skills with her in every fight. De Randamie is a tall and long fighter, who does a great job of using her reach on the feet. She has very nice leg kicks both inside and outside, and she needs to test that leg of Rocky and really throw a lot of leg kicks early. She likes to really chop down with power on her leg kicks after a jab or left hook. De Randamie has a nice jab, and a very nice one two. She has good in and out movement and is always trying to pull fighters into her power. She has a really nice uppercut, overhand right and is one of the more powerful strikers in the division. She has nasty front kicks to the body, and she will fire them to the head also. She does a good job of sneaking tricky high kicks into combinations and when they land, they have big power. She is very good defensively, she will keep a high guard, and is always gauging distance. She has big power and has finished 3 of her 7 wins via KO/TKO. She has never been finished with strikes on the feet, her one TKO loss to Nunes was on the ground.
De Randamie is nasty in the clinch, and one of the better clinch fighters in the division. She has nasty knees to the body, and her head position is always right so she is able to muscle girls around in the clinch. She has a nasty Muay Thai plum and will land hard knees to the body and head, as well as short elbows. She will use this position to defend take downs, and do damage, and it makes fighters nervous to close the distance on her. She has never attempted a take down in the UFC, and I doubt she goes for one here. De Randamie has defended 86% of the take downs attempted against her in the UFC and hasn’t been taken down since her fight with Amanda Nunes in 2013. She needs to be able to keep this fight standing, and she will have a great chance to win. In the clinch both girls are dangerous, but I think De Randamie is better with her clinch striking as she has had many years of experience. De Randamie is clearly the better striker at range, and if she’s able to use her front and leg kicks, as well as her jab and right hand to control distance and strike from the outside it should be an easy night for her.
Rocky Pennington (+145) has a record of 9-6 with a UFC record of 6-3. Pennington is returning from a brutal loss at the hands of Amanda Nunes. Her corner took a lot of heat for sending her back out after she said she was done on the stool only to get finished in the next round. She also had a very bad leg break, and she complained that the leg was hurt again with the first kick Amanda threw. She needs to prove to herself, that she can take a leg kick and win a fight post injury. Pennington will be fighting at home in Colorado, so she should be amped up and ready to go in this one. Pennington is a tough gritty girl who is pretty well rounded. Pennington has a good jab and good right hook and does a good job of controlling distance and staying just on the outside of your punches. She did a great job against Tate with the jab. She was stopping Miesha forward motion and takedown attempts with it. She will add some leg and body kicks into her combinations. She has a nice uppercut in close. Pennington is very durable, and when she gets hit she likes to try to come forward and get it back immediately. She needs to be in close to be effective, as she is not a big kicker and can struggle to find her range from the outside. She will dig to the body with shots as well, and she loves to get in wars. She will definitely take a shot to give her own and try to wear fighters down as the fight goes longer. She was broken a bit in her last fight and took her first KO/TKO loss of her career in her last match after staying on the stool in between rounds. She still took some massive shots in that match and has a very solid chin. She doesn’t have big power herself, and only has one TKO in her career.
Pennington likes to fight in the clinch, and fight in dirty boxing range. She has good short punches, elbows and knees. She has good head positioning, and she will trap a wrist and throw punches with the other. She likes to land hard knees to the body, and she wears fighters out in the clinch. Pennington doesn’t have great wrestling, but she is strong and gritty. She has a decent double leg, and she does a good job of timing it in the center. If she doesn’t get the take down, she will throw shots on the break and I see her trying to do that in this match. On top Pennington has solid ground & pound, but her go to moves are chokes. She has a nasty guillotine and will attack with chokes such as bulldog chokes. She is opportunistic and can snatch up the neck and finish a fight very quickly. She has solid take down defense, and she will attack with the guillotine when fighters shoot in on her. She has 4 careers submissions and been submitted just one time herself. She hasn’t gotten a finish since 2015, and her last 3 wins have been via decision. Pennington has great cardio, and in Denver where she trains she could potentially use that as a weapon. Pennington needs to make this fight ugly. She can’t hang around on the outside with the long range striking skills of De Randamie. I see her trying to close the distance grab the single collar land shots in the clinch go for double legs, and just grind out De Randamie. If Pennington can get De Randamie to the ground, she will have a chance to finish the fight because Germaine is not a great grappler.
If this fight takes place on the feet, GDR should win no problem. I think she is better at everything on the feet and I think she could pick up a finish along the way if Rocky can’t get takedowns. I think the only way Rocky wins this fight is by getting it to the ground and keeping it there or getting a submission. The problem with that is Rocky has a 35.45% takedown accuracy and GDR has an 86.49% takedown defense. So, I think GDR will be able to keep this fight standing more than Rocky would like. I do think Rocky will try to keep this fight against the cage for periods of time and that will stall any DK points being scored. Other than that, I think GDR pieces Rocky up on the feet and could maybe finish her if she can put some volume into her strikes.
On DraftKings, GDR is the only fighter I have interest in here. I already like enough underdogs where I don’t think I need any exposure to Rocky here. GDR is priced at $8.8k so I think we will need her to get a finish to pay that off in this fight. I don’t see her reaching value with a decision win. I do feel pretty comfortable in her getting the win though, so I think she makes for a decent cash game plan here. I think that is the best way to get exposure to GDR in this spot, but I do want some exposure in GPPs as well since I think the finish is in play. Rocky will be a complete fade for me, but if you think she is going to get takedowns and win this fight, then I have no issues with you throwing her into LUs as one of your underdogs. I just don’t think that is how this fight goes down and I will lose my money if it does.
Winner – Germaine De Randamie via 3rd round (T)KO
Mike Perry $8,900 vs Donald Cerrone $7,300
Mike Perry (-225) has a 12-3 record and he is 5-3 in the UFC. Perry is coming off a bounce back win against Paul Felder in his last match and will be looking for the biggest win of his career here against Cowboy Cerrone. Perry has been calling out Cerrone for years, and he finally gets his wish. Perry is incredibly aggressive and will come forward eating punches and trying to land one of his massive right hands, that’s one of the most powerful punches in the entire UFC. He is very explosive and will close distance quickly, land a combination and leave you in a heap. Inside he is dangerous with his elbows and his knees and has both an elbow and knee KO in the UFC. He has improved over his UFC career, vs Ponzinibbio he showed improved footwork cutting off the cage, as well as throwing a nice body kick. He also had improved head movement and was able to slip punches and come back with his own. He had a great fight with Santiago in which it was 1-1 going into round 3 and he got hit with a spinning back fist that changed the complexion of the fight. He showed an incredible chin in that fight, and will never go away he also got his leg battered. The game plan to beat Perry is to hit and not get hit throw kicks jabs and long-range strikes while keeping the movement going for all 3 rounds. Fighters cannot let Perry get inside where he can land one of his nuclear missiles without paying the price. He is a knockout artist and has won all his fights via KO/TKO besides his most recent one. He has never been finished with strikes himself.
Mike Perry is extremely dangerous in close range. In the clinch he has nasty elbows and knees and is relentless going for the finish. He will batter fighters Inside the clinch, and we have seen the type of knockouts he gets from that position. He left Jake Ellenberger in a heap with an elbow and slept Alex Reyes with a quickness in the clinch. He is a very powerful fighter, and he just bullies opponents in close range with power, aggression and physicality. He has good double leg take downs, and also strong clinch take downs. He isn’t a very active seeker of the take down, but when he goes for it he is strong on top with big ground & pound. He has never gotten a submission in his career, but he is a purple belt, and has shown some good positional awareness. He wants to avoid this fight going to the ground, because I feel Cerrone has a pretty sizeable BJJ advantage down there. Perry has great cardio, and always shows up in the octagon willing to give his life. Perry is going to get in there and pressure. Get in Cerrone’s face push him backwards and throw his hands. Cerrone has always struggled with pressure fighters, and if Mike Perry can land clean he can get the knock out.
Cowboy Cerrone (+185) has a 33-11-1 record and a UFC record of 20-8. Donald Cerrone is a long-time staple of Jackson-Wink MMA and one of the original guys who built the gyms brand. Mike Perry has only just recently switched gyms there and has had one camp at Jackson’s. In an odd turn of events the gym decided to keep Perry, and kick Cowboy out of the gym. Cowboy is now training at his ranch, while Perry is training with his old coaches at Jackson-Wink. There has been a lot said about how Jackson-Wink is going downhill from Cowboy, and I’m sure he is motivated to win and stick a big middle finger up to all of them. Donald Cerrone is one of the best fighters to have never won a belt in the UFC. In the past, he would be the sizeable favorite against a fighter like Mike Perry, but he is getting older and now comes in as the underdog. Cerrone has lost 4 out of 5 fights and needs a win here to jumpstart his career again. He actually had a better showing than I expected in his last fight pushing Leon Edwards to five rounds in a competitive main event earlier this year. Cerrone is in his home state and will have the crowd firmly on his side for this fight. Cerrone is a nasty Muay Thai striker, and his highlight reel of finishes shows that. Cerrone throws vicious kicks, beating up your legs first and then attacking the body and head. He has the most head kick knockouts in UFC history. He has okay hands, but in boxing range he seems like he is nowhere near as comfortable as kicking range. He doesn’t have tight punching, or the greatest defense and he can be exploited in boxing range. He does have a nice check left hook in the pocket, and he has gotten better at dealing with pressure fighters. He throws a nice front leg side kick and stomp kick to the leg. He throws a stabbing front kick to the body and at distance really beats up all parts of the body. He uses takedowns to almost disguise a step-in knee at times and it’s beautiful he throws a step-in knee after he gets denied the shot and even follows with a head kick to close the combination. If Cerrone can find his rhythm and range, fighters are usually screwed. When he is going forward, he is one of the nastiest strikers in the division. Cerrone has obviously taken a lot of damage recently, and he cannot get hit clean against a knockout artist like Mike Perry. Cerrone has 9 KO/TKOs, and 5 of his last 6 wins have been KO/TKO finishes. He has been finished with strikes 4 times himself, but 3 have come in his last 5 fights.
Cerrone has long been an underrated grappler. He has always been very dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu, but he has improved his wrestling immensely in recent years. Cerrone has gotten much more wrestling heavy in recent fights, and it’s a smart thing to do since he is getting up there in age. There are rumors that he took down Perry and submitted him a few times in sparring, so I am sure he will be trying to get the fight to the ground. Cerrone has good timing on double leg shots, and he also has good body lock take downs. On top Cerrone is good, he has strong top control, and he likes to get to the back. He gets most of his submissions after he stuns and drops his opponent. He is very good at jumping on the back and locking in the rear naked choke. He has good take down defense himself and is hard to hold down. Off of his back he is very dangerous. He has nasty triangles, arm bars to go along with very nice sweeps. He does an excellent job of getting omaplata sweeps in the guard to reverse and get top position. He has 16 submissions in his career but hasn’t gotten one since 2016. Cerrone is a finisher having finished 12 of his UFC wins and last 6 overall. He has good cardio and had a good showing in a 5-round fight earlier this year. Cerrone should try to use his range striking and keep the distance on the feet. If he lets Mike Perry walk him down and get in boxing range, he is in serious trouble. I also think a smart game plan would be to work for takedowns and try to find a submission on Perry.
I think Cowboy is the better fighter here in every aspect other than power and chin. I think he can win the fight with a knockout, submission, or a decision. I think Perry will need a KO to get the win here, but he has the power to be able to KO anybody. On the feet, I have to favor Perry early in this fight. Cowboy is a slow starter and his chin is not what it used to be. Perry will likely come out firing right away looking for the KO from the opening bell. If Cowboy can survive the early storm and eat a few shots without getting knocked out, I think the edge will shift into his favor. I think the best game plan for Cowboy should be to look for takedowns. I think he is live for a submission if this fight hits the ground, but Cowboy likes to stand and bang, so he might just look to stay at range and work his kicks. But Perry is very dangerous on the feet and I don’t see Perry wanting to stay at range, so Cowboy could get knocked out at any time during this fight. I do think Cowboy is the more technical striker though, so he could win a standing decision if he can avoid getting KO’d.
On DraftKings, this is one of the better fights on the card to target and my preferred play is Cerrone. I want to target this fight in most of my LUs because I think whoever wins should easily pay off their salary. If Cowboy can win at $7.3k, he is almost surely going to end up on the winning LU. If Perry can land a few knock downs and a 1st round KO, then he could be the highest scorer on the entire card. Either way, it is a great fight to target and I want both sides of it. If I were to go all in on this fight I would lean 60/40 or 70/30 in favor of Cerrone. I am not sure if I will go all-in on the fight or not, but most of my LUs will have this fight in it. I expect Cowboy to be the most popular underdog of the week, so you will want over 40% if you are looking to get any leverage over the field with him. Perry could be lower owned because Cowboy is a big name, but he will still have over 20% ownership himself, so I want to be over that number with my personal LUs just to have leverage on both sides of this fight. I am a Cowboy Cerrone fan as well, so I will be hoping my Cerrone LUs are looking better going into this fight, so I can root for him to win. I think an early takedown would be smart from Cowboy here and that is what I am hoping will happen. If he doesn’t get the sub, then he can at least tire Perry out, so his power won’t be as strong later in the fight.
Winner- Donald Cerrone via 2nd round submission
Chan Sung Jung $8,500 vs Yair Rodriguez $7,700
Korean Zombie (-130) has a record of 14-4 and he is 4-1 in the UFC. This fight has all the potential to be an epic war. Chan Sung Jung is a warrior who will continue to walk through shots and give his own, while Yair Rodriguez fights like a video game character. Jung is very wild with big power, and he can end the fight with one punch. Zombie took 4 years off for military duty, returned and had a great first round knockout of Dennis Bermudez, but now has once again been out over a year and a half. He looks fantastic from pictures I see on social media and in fantastic shape. Korean Zombie has a nasty jab and throws it very stiff. Zombie likes to throw wide hooks to close the distance and get in a brawl, where he is very dangerous. He likes to counter with straight punches, and he will throw the one two when fighters close the distance on him. He has nasty uppercuts, and he will throw 4-5 in a row in close range when he sees the opening. He has a strong left hook and it’s one his more powerful punches. When he stalks opponents to the cage, he likes to throw flying knees and then he unloads with punching combinations to the body and head. He has amazing cardio, he doesn’t get tired, and loves to throw down in the pocket so opponents have to trade with him to back him off. His defense is very bad, and he just really disregards it. He holds his hands low and doesn’t really feint much while throwing dangerous strikes that are easy to counter. He needs to be careful not to get caught with a kick in this fight and get hurt or knocked out. He has only been finished one time besides his injury vs Aldo, and it was a knock out by a head kick. He has 4 KO/TKOs, and he is very dangerous especially in a 5-round fight.
He is a great grappler, he has a great body lock in the clinch, as well as nice trips. He is also very good at catching kicks and taking fighters down off them. He needs to do that in this fight and try to stymy the kicking game of Rodriguez a bit. On top Jung has nasty ground & pound elbows. He does a great job of getting posture and raining down blows. His Jiu-Jitsu is incredible, and he is able to transition on top very smoothly while looking for submissions. He has a nasty d’arce choke, he caught Poirier with it in their fight. He has gotten a twister as well in the UFC. He is very good off his back and extremely active with triangles and arm bars. His take down defense is awesome, he has a great sprawl and he will circle to the back and try to take it if given the opportunity. He has 8 submission victories himself and has never been submitted. Zombie needs to make this a close-range fight, he needs to get inside and land his punches. He also should look for take downs and try to exploit the holes Frankie Edgar showed in Rodriguez’s striking game.
Yair Rodriquez (+110) is 10-2 with a UFC record of 6-1. Rodriguez is finally making his return after a long layoff and dispute with the UFC. Rodriguez is still a dynamic striker and one of the most fun fighters to watch. He has strong low leg kicks, and I think he needs to use those and circle off to stop the forward motion of Jung. He will also throw oblique kicks to the knee and front kicks to the body. He has a nasty spinning back kick to the body and head. Rodriguez isn’t a great boxer, but he is a Mexican warrior and will sit down and trade with you on the inside. He likes to throw a check left hook or straight right hand. He has a nice spinning back fist in close range. He is very dangerous and can finish the fight quickly. He has 4 KO/TKOs and has been finished twice with strikes. Rodriguez needs to make this an outside fight, he needs to move, throw leg kicks to make Zombie reset and then try to find a finishing shot as Zombie closes the distance.
Rodriguez is a decent wrestler, he is good at timing double legs, but I see him using defensive wrestling in this fight if anything. Rodriguez is good in the clinch, he has good trip take downs, and he is good defensively in the clinch. He didn’t have good take down defense when Edgar got in on his legs and wasn’t able to get up or threaten from his back. He usually does have a very active guard and will throw up triangles or arm bars. If he gets taken down by Jung i think that he will be in trouble and needs to avoid getting the fight taken to the ground. He has 3 submissions and has never been submitted himself.
This is a fun fight and I am looking forward to watching it. I have gone back and forth on my prediction though, so I don’t have a confident pick in this fight. For that reason, I think I will be pretty evenly exposed to it. I think it will be Zombie’s punches vs Yair’s kicks on the feet, and both guys strike at a similar pace, right above 3.75 sig strikes per minute, so I think it will come down to who is landing the harder strikes if this fight stays standing. Either guy could get a KO here with their power, but I don’t think we see a finish on the feet in this fight. I think if there is a finish in this fight then it is most likely a submission win from Jung. That is the game plan I think Zombie should come into this fight with and try to get this fight to the ground rather than play around with the flashy striker where he feels more comfortable. The line for FDGTD is currently -285, but I kind of think we do see a decision here. I think this is going to be a fun back and forth fight and it could be one where we don’t even know who gets their hand raised. On the feet, I will favor Rodriguez, slightly. But on the ground, I favor Korean Zombie and I think takedowns could be what helps him win a decision here. Either way, I am not confident in the outcome of this fight, but I am fairly confident the winner scores enough to end up on the winning LU. For that reason, I will have both guys in GPPs, and I will be stacking this fight in cash.
On DraftKings, I will say my preferred play is Yair Rodriguez because he is the underdog. In a near 50/50 fight I would rather just save the money if I was making 1 LU and take Yair. I won’t be making just 1 LU and because this fight is in the mid-range of the salaries, this is one of my favorite fights on the card to target. I think if you are making 10 LUs, you could even go 5/5 here. Or 6/4 in favor of who you think wins. I will probably take a 5/4 approach and fade it in one LU just in case it isn’t a high scoring fight. But I would lean Yair as the 50% guy because we do need underdogs and I think he is one of the better underdog plays this week in a 5-round fight. I have gone back and forth on who I think is going to win, but I will say Yair since he is my preferred play. I might pick Jung after weigh-ins, but either way I will be heavily invested in this fight as a whole and hopefully I can hit the other 5 spots in my LU so that going into this fight I can have a chance to win a GPP with either guy.
Winner- Yair Rodriguez via Split Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this article and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley, and if you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.