BigMarley3’s DraftKings UFC Breakdown
Event – UFC Fight Night 141 Location – Beijing, China
Thanks for purchasing my UFC FN 141 full DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I think it’s a good week to focus more on cash games. The main GPP is an $8 entry that pay’s $10K to 1st place. That is the best one to chase in my opinion. I will have a couple LUs that I put into a lot of GPPs hoping I can win them all, but I won’t have many LUs in total this week. Other than that, most of my play this week will be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC Beijing fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Louis Smolka $8,800 vs Mudaerji Su $7,400
Louis Smolka
Age: 27
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Hawaii Elite MMA
From: Hawaii
MMA Record: 14-5
UFC Record: 5-5
Fight Matrix: 46
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -220
Louis Smolka is returning to the UFC after 3 consecutive victories. Both fighters fought last month and are coming in on short notice. This fight will be at 135 lbs and I believe Sumudaerji will have a size advantage. Smolka is a pressure fighter on the feet and likes to walk down opponents. He likes to throw a check left hook, along with leg and body kicks. He will throw a jab straight right hand. He will throw front kicks to the body, and then try to land a right hook over the top. He has good head kicks. He is slow with his strikes, and fighters are able to see his punches coming and slip them and catch his kicks. He doesn’t have great defense, he will just raise his guard, and stand flat footed. He got clipped and dropped several times by Matheus Nicolau in his last UFC fight. He is tough with a good chin. He will continue to press forward even after he is dropped or bloodied. He needs to close the distance on the feet in this fight and make it a close-range fight. If he lets his opponent control the range and walk him down, he will be in trouble. Smolka isn’t a huge KO threat on the feet, but he has 6 KO/TKO finishes. He has never been finished with strikes himself.
Smolka is a good bjj practitioner, but not much of a wrestler. He is tall and long for the division and tries to use his length to get body locks and trip take downs, he also will shoot single legs. He isn’t a super active seeker of the take down, and he will stand and strike with fighters. That will be a bad idea to try and do in this match. Smolka’s wrestling is bad, and he is too comfortable going and staying on his back. He is dangerous with submissions, and very good in scrambles. He will throw up triangles and arm bars from bottom. He also does a good job of scrambling to mount or the back. He has 6 submissions, and submission will definitely be his best chance to win this match. He has been submitted one time, but that isn’t something he will need to be worried about it in this fight. Smolka needs to use his experience and pressure this kid, get him uncomfortable and then somehow get it to the ground. If he can get the fight to the ground, he can submit Sumudaerji who is still very green on the ground.
Sumudaerji Sumudaerji
Age: 22
Height: N/A
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: Enbo Gedou
From: China
MMA Record: 11-3
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 176
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +180
Sumudaerji looks like another very intriguing prospect from China. He is extremely athletic with dynamic striking. He also has a great frame for 125 or 135 being very tall and long. He does a good job of using his reach, and making fighters fight at his range. He has great forward pressure, and in and out movement. He has a long karate stance and will keep range with nasty sidekicks particularly to the body, but to the head as well. He has a laser for a straight left hand and is an extremely accurate striker. He has a hands down style and it makes it very hard to see when his punches are coming. He has nice round kicks and spinning kicks to the head. He does a great job of landing a jab straight left hand and pulling fighters into his power. He does a great job of slipping punches and sliding just out of range of opponents strikes. He will throw spinning back kicks to the body, and a leg kick to spinning back kick to the head combination. He is a finisher, and when he hurts fighters he is extremely accurate with finishing shots. He can get wild at times with jumping attacks, such as flying knees, and end up on his back where he is weak. He is taking this fight on very short notice, and just got submitted 3 weeks ago. He is only 22 years old and has been very active in 2018, this will be his 6th fight and I think he will be ready to go. He is a fighter who loves to be in the cage. He is a finisher with 9 KO/TKOs and a serious striker. He has a good chin and is willing to eat a shot to give one. He has never been finished by strikes, and he will love to have a stand-up fight with Smolka.
Sumudaerji seems to be improving on his wrestling defense and is not interested in going for takedowns himself. He shows good takedown defense in space, sprawling on double legs, and limp legging out of single legs. Against the cage his takedown defense needs work. He puts his feet close together making it easy for opponents to get double legs. He doesn’t seem comfortable on the ground, and everything he does is explosion. He will try to explode out of positions, he is athletic and can sweep to top position out of mount and return to his feet. He has been submitted in all three of his losses, and there is a big Jiu-Jitsu difference between him and Smolka. He seems very uncomfortable off his back, and even in top position. He will try to pull out of opponent’s guards, and that’s usually when fighters get caught. Sumudaerji needs to keep this fight standing. He cannot get too crazy and get himself off balance or let Smolka take him down. On the feet he needs to stalk Smolka, make him uncomfortable, draw out strikes, bad takedown attempts and counter. If he can keep it on the feet at his range I can see him catching and finishing Smolka at some point in this match.
This is a great fight to target this week and it is the first fight of the card, which I always like to have exposure to. From what I have seen, I think there is a clear edge for Smolka if he can get this fight to the ground. Sumudaerji has 3 losses and all of them are via submission. Smolka should go out there and look to get this fight to the ground and take advantage of Sumudaerji’s submission defense. Smolka is very active on the ground as well and racks up a lot of advance points when his fights hit the ground. Smolka is also very solid on the feet and he could possibly win in that area as well, but I think I would favor Sumudaerji there. He looks like he is very talented in the striking department, and he is dangerous as well. If there is a finish on the feet I would think Sumudaerji would be the one getting his hand raised. I also think Smolka will need a fairly dominant performance to win a judge’s decision in China, so if this fight stays standing I would lean towards the upset.
On DraftKings, both guys are in play here. I think Smolka has one of the higher ceilings on the card if he can get this fight to the ground, and he has scored 99 or more DK points in 4 of his 5 wins. He also has a 162-point win against Ben Nguyen, and if he can get this fight to the ground right away then that might not be out of reach here. I think he is a great GPP play for that reason. Sumudaerji is also interesting because I like his striking a lot and I like picking Chinese fighters in China. We get him as a decent underdog here at only $7.4K so any win from him could put him on the winning lineup. I don’t love this fight for cash games unless you are confident in one or the other, but I do think it is one of the best GPP fights on the card to target. The line for FDGTD is -265 and Smolka has an ITD line of -145, so he is my preferred play. I won’t be mass entering this week personally, but I think with 10 LUs I would want to target this fight in at least 7 of them, using both sides of it.
Winner – Louis Smolka via 2nd round submission
Kevin Holland $9,500 vs John Phillips $6,700
Kevin Holland
Age: 26
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 81”
Gym: Phalanx MMA
From: Texas
MMA Record: 13-4
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 81
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -425
Kevin Holland is a showman in the cage. He will talk a ton of shit and even talk to the fans in the crowd, and he uses a lot of antics to try to get guys off their game. He even does silly things to you in your fights to try to distract his opponent, I have seen him tickle someone’s feet in a fight. He has great confidence and composure in there, and the ability to stay calm in the fire. He is extremely long and has an 81.5’ inch reach and uses it fairly well. He has a wide stance, with good in and out and lateral movement. He uses his front leg a lot to throw front kicks to the legs, body and head and has good, fast kicks. He has good straight punches, but he can be a bit loose and open with his defense and get countered. He will close the distance with a right hand and get in the Thai clinch and unload with knees and elbows. He has nasty elbows in the clinch and has had a spinning back elbow KO.
He is a Travis Lutter brown belt with solid body locks, and good G&P. He will throw hard punches standing in your guard due to his length and can land elbows. He is dangerous with submissions he has a nasty guillotine, good triangles and leg locks. He will sweep with omaplatas. He is active on top or off his back and it’s an interesting wrinkle to a long striker. He has good cardio and a solid chin. All of his wins are by finish, and he has never been finished by strikes. He has been submitted one time by very high-level Rafael Lovato Jr. He has some good wins and fought some high-profile fighters. He had a good performance on short notice against Thiago Santos. The smart thing for Holland to do is to close the distance and take Phillips down. If he can get him on his back early he has a good chance of getting the submission.
John Phillips
Age: 33
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: SBG Ireland
From: Wales
MMA Record: 21-7
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 167
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +340
John Phillips had a disappointing UFC debut, getting submitted quickly by Charles Byrd. The SBG Ireland product will be looking to have a different result this time out. The powerful striker brings 18 Career TKO/KO’s and definitely possesses one punch KO power, especially in his left hook. He comes out very quickly throwing hard hooks, trying to overwhelm fighters and finish them early. He will throw nice shots in the dirty boxing range as well such as body punches and uppercuts. He likes to come forward and brawl in a phone booth. He is very willing to take a shot to give a shot and will talk shit and try to goad you into a war. He struggles to fight at range or against faster opponents because he truly just looks to throw hard hooks. He has a great chin, and belief he can take any shot. He doesn’t throw many kicks, but sometimes will throw a leg kick. He is a first round finisher, and 16 of his 18 KO/TKOs are in round number one. He has only been finished with strikes one time in the second fight of his career.
John Phillips isn’t a good wrestler and he doesn’t look to grapple offensively much. He has questionable takedown defense. He does a solid job of protecting himself, but he doesn’t have a good get up game and if he gets taken down he can be held down the whole round. He has a decent triangle choke submission. He throws hard body shots in the clinch but shows almost no takedown-defense against the cage. He isn’t the fleetest of foot or the most athletic guy. He lost to Jesse Taylor by submission very quickly in round 1 by guillotine. He has a good squeeze, and if he can get ahold of someone’s neck he can end the fight with a choke. He got taken down very quickly and was a fish out of water in his UFC debut, getting his back taken and submitted quickly. Phillips only has one way to win this fight. He needs to start fast, close the distance and land one of his power hooks and knock Holland out.
The only way I see Phillips winning this fight is via KO. I think he is in play for GPPs for that KO chance, but I don’t see him getting it and I will be fading him this weekend. I think this is an easy fight for Holland. I see him being the better fighter on the feet and if this fight hits the ground then it will be Holland domaining there. FDGTD is currently -305 and I think that might be a bit low. Phillips has only been to a decision 1 time in his 28 fights. I think Holland can finish him on the feet or the ground and as I mentioned I think KO is the only way for Phillips.
On DraftKings, Holland is the only guy I would be considering in this fight with a few LUs. He is the most expensive fighter on the card, but for good reason. He has the highest ITD line on the card at -170 and I think if you can afford him then he is the best play in the $9k range. Phillips, I think is only in play in deep GPPs and more so if you are mass entering. I would fade him with 10 LUs, but I think with more than that he could be worth a shot for KO chance at the cheapest DK salary. Holland is one of the best plays on the card IMO and I think he gets a 1st or 2nd round finish here in impressive fashion. He is in play in all formats and if I was making 10 LUs I would want him in at least half of them.
Winner – Kevin Holland via 1st round submission
Yan Xiaonan $9,400 vs Syuri Kondo $6,800
Yan Xiaonan
Age: 28
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: China
MMA Record: 9-1
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -440
Yan Xiaonan is no joke on the feet. She has big power and is very aggressive throwing with full power on every shot. She is light on her feet, with a long karate stance, utilizing the front leg as a range finder. Unlike most karate fighters, she has fast hands and throws hooks in combination. She has a sharp stiff jab that she uses to set up her combinations. She has good power in her hands and her straight punches are also powerful. She leads with her left hook very effectively and has a powerful straight right hand. She does a great job of throwing her left hook fading away and circling back to the center of the cage. She has a very good lead leg and will throw hard stomp kicks to the knee or inside leg kicks. She throws nasty sidekicks to the face and the body. She has good speed and power on it and it is hard to see coming. She will throw a lead round kick too. She doesn’t move her head much, and she can get hit with overhands and straight punches. She has gotten better with her lateral movement, and the more she improves with that, the harder it will be for opponents to get a hold of her. She is going to be a problem for a lot of fighters if she is able to stay in the center at her range and land shots. She has 5 KO/TKOs and is a great finisher especially for Women’s 115. She has a strong chin, and never been finished herself via strikes.
Xiaonan is a developing grappler, but she is a physically strong fighter and improving in that facet. She is strong in the clinch, and hard to take down. She will throw nice elbows and short knees. She still doesn’t have the greatest technique with her clinch work especially against the cage. She tries to muscle a lot of positions and doesn’t pummel or use under hooks to change position. She can be controlled against the fence because of it, and it’s something she needs to improve. She still stands high in the striking and can get clinched up against the cage and or taken down. She isn’t an offensive grappler, and she won’t go for the clinch or takedowns. I think she will be the bigger, physically stronger fighter in this matchup, and that could play a factor in her defending tie ups and takedowns. Xiaonan is going to be the quicker fighter on the feet, with more power. She should attack the body with kicks, because Kondo got folded with one kick against Poliana Botelho. Yan should try to walk Kondo into her left hook and straight right hand as well as keep the fight in the center of the cage.
Syuri Kondo
Age: 29
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 66”
Gym: Vos Gym
From: Japan
MMA Record: 6-1
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 52
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +350
Syuri Kondo will be looking to bounce back here. She is coming off of her first professional loss, and it was a quick first round TKO. Kondo has great pressure and will walk fighters down all fight. She has a nice jab and follows that with an overhand right. She does a decent job of landing a right hand and getting her head off the center line. She likes the jab right straight combo. She will throw some kicks to the leg, or body kicks but ultimately, she should throw more kicks. She has a solid front kick to the body. She can get tagged and eat punches when she is closing the distance. She doesn’t move her head much, and just walks forward with a high guard leaving her susceptible to body shots. She doesn’t do a great job of cutting off the cage with her pressure, and she usually just comes in on straight lines. She is also very stiff, and not the fastest fighter. She has a good chin and will walk forward eating shots all fight without worry. She throws spinning attacks in the pocket such as spinning backfists and spinning kicks to the body. She has only been finished one time in her career, after she got dropped with a body kick and pounded out by Poliana Botelho. She has one TKO, and she isn’t much of a volume striker.
Kondo is not a wrestler, but I do see her trying to use a more clinch heavy game plan in this match. Kondo likes to use punches to close the distance and get the single collar clinch. She has decent knees in that position, and will throw short punches to the body, and head. She will push fighters against the cage, and land short knees there as well, and if she can get Xiaonan in that position she may be able to earn some control time. She struggles to close distance and get in the clinch at times and she isn’t very physically strong. Kondo has a great gas tank and can continue to fight for all three rounds. I think Kondo’s best path to victory is to try to clinch Yan against the cage early and zap some of her energy in round one. After round one she can start to implement her striking, and land straight punches and jabs. I believe Kondo will be the fresher fighter in round 3.
I think this is a good matchup for Xiaonan and I expect her to get a win here. I will be very short on this one because I think the odds say it all. She is very likely to win, but her ITD line is +300 and she is priced up to $9.4k on DK. That is just too much money to spend on her with that ITD line when she scored 66 and 78 in her first two UFC wins. I think she gets a fairly dominant win here, she is just priced out of my player pool at that salary. I really don’t see Kondo having much of a chance in this fight, so I don’t have much/any interest in her either.
On DraftKings, the only way I would be using this fight is by punting with Kondo in cash games. I think we can afford that loss and with this fight likely going to decision, I think she can give us 20-30 DK points in a loss. For cash games, if we can get 4 wins or over ~350 points then we are usually going to win more than we lose, so I am ok with taking a 20-30-point loss in my cash LU. You can punt a few different places on this card, but Kondo is my preferred play here for cash specifically. I think this fight is an easy GPP fade unless you think Konda does pull off the upset. If I was making 10 or so LUs, I would have this fight in 0 of them.
Winner – Yan Xiaonan via Unanimous Decision
Liu Pingyuan $8,900 vs Martin Day $7,300
Pingyuan Liu
Age: 25
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: China
MMA Record: 14-4
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 100
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -230
Pingyuan Liu is an action striker. He became pro at age 16 in 2010 and started his career 0-4 and has been 12-11 since. He took a 3-year break from 2013 to 2016 and has gone 7-0 since returning. He is training at team Alpha Male for this camp and has been improving rapidly. He looks very explosive with good hands. He has nice hard leg kicks and is very aggressive on the feet. He will try to time flying knees and has big power on his straight right hand. He closes a lot of distance with his punching combinations and is very quick. His straight right hand and overhand right are very accurate, and he likes to follow it with a straight left hand. He has nice body and head kicks. He is super aggressive and marches his opponents down with his striking, but he keeps smart pressure. He stays at his range, and he doesn’t get too wild. He will throw nice leg kicks also. He landed a nasty spinning back fist in his last match against Stasiak and looked very strong and explosive during that match. He has a great chin and will take shots to give his own. He has only been finished one time via strikes, in his very first fight. He has 4 KO/TKOs himself.
Pingyuan Liu is a very athletic fighter, and you can see that in the way he grapples. He explodes out of bad positions, with the ability to scramble very well. His come forward style allows fighters to close the distance on him, but he does a great job of digging under hooks and landing knees. He also is very hard to hold down if you can’t cement position. He explodes back to his feet right away, turns the position into a scramble or 50/50 position where Liu will do damage with strikes. When fighters cement position on him he can be controlled for portions of times, and he isn’t dangerous off his back, but he is calm and will eventually probably work back to his feet. He will throw up submissions off his back such as arm bars, but his best submission is probably the guillotine when defending the takedown. He will hang on the neck from standing position and jump for the guillotine if he feels he has a good grip. I think he will be extremely hard to submit, just because his athleticism makes it hard to keep him in bad positions on the ground. He has gotten heel hooked one time in his career. He has 6 submissions himself and been submitted two times. He has won 9 in a row, and now training at Team Alpha with some UFC experience under his belt I expect a comfortable confident Liu.
Martín Day
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Hawaii Elite MMA
From: Hawaii
MMA Record: 9-2
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 335
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +190
Martin Day will be making his UFC debut. Day is a 125 lb fighter, and I imagine Ping will have a good size advantage in this matchup. Martin Day had an opportunity in DWCS last year and didn’t capitalize but has won 3 consecutive fights on the Hawaii local scene to earn this opportunity. Martin is an athletic fighter, who enjoys throwing flashy kicks. He has nice leg kicks, and he likes to move around on the outside and counter strike. He keeps hands low and will try to counter with straights or hooks. He will throw front kicks to the body. He also has good spinning back kicks to the head, as well as round kicks to the body and head. He will throw a left hook right uppercut combination. He doesn’t throw many set ups, and he can get tagged closing the distance. He has decent head movement, and range control early, but as the fight continues his movement slows and he becomes very hittable. When fighters pressure him he doesn’t have good defense and struggles to throw back strikes to stop the forward pressure. He got very tired in round 3 of his DWCS fight and was almost finished. He has been finished one time by strikes and has finished 3 fighters by KO/TKO.
He is a decent grappler and will use wrestling in fights. He has a decent double leg against the cage, and he does a good job of getting body lock takedowns. He will shoot a double leg, and if he can’t get it, get the single collar clinch and land knees, while trying to get it to the ground. His takedown defense isn’t great, and he doesn’t have much to offer off his back. He got finished with ground & pound in his TKO loss to Nohelin Hernandez and was taken down very easily in that match. He has a decent guillotine and has two in his career. He hasn’t fought very high-level fighters, but he did beat an 8-0 fighter in his last match. I am not sure if Day is UFC level, and he is here fighting up a weight class. Day needs to use a lot of lateral movement, counter punch, can look for takedowns. On the feet I think he will really struggle with the boxing of Ping.
This is a fight I am looking forward to watching more than I am investing in it. I think Pingyuan Liu is the rightful favorite here and I think he will be the bigger and better guy. I see him being able to control where this fight goes and with him fighting in his home country I think it will be very tough for Day to win a decision here. I think Day will need to finish this fight to get a win, but I think that is a possible outcome. I don’t think it is likely and I will be picking Liu here, but Day is one of the few underdogs I am interested in this week for GPPs.
On DraftKings, Day is my preferred play here even though I am picking Liu to win. I think Liu is priced too highly at $8.9k and I think he needs a finish to pay that off. I don’t see him getting a finish here, so I would rather go with Day who has looked impressive at times. I think Day can keep this fight close and I was not impressed with Liu’s UFC debut where he only scored 56 DK points in a win. I am not picking many underdogs to win on this card, but Day is a top 3-4 pick for me on a card where I see most favorites winning. I think he is a fine cash game punt as well since I think this does go to the scorecards. I think Liu is in play if you think he gets a finish, but I don’t see him paying off that salary in a decision win, so he won’t be a play for me.
Winner – Pingyuan Liu via Split Decision
Weili Zhang $9,300 vs Jessica Aguilar $6,900
Weili Zhang
Age: 29
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Black Tiger Muay Thai
From: China
MMA Record: 17-1
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W17
Betting Odds: -470
Weili Zhang is a beast. She is going to be fighting her second UFC fight and in her home country. She is a tenacious fighter who finishes fights. She has good kicks, nice leg kicks, kicks to the body and spinning kicks. She will use front leg attacks a lot like sidekicks and front kicks to the body. She keeps heavy pressure on opponents and is always the fighter walking forward. She is very explosive and closes distance with her punches quickly. She has decent hands, but she can get sloppy, and her striking is second fiddle to her great grappling. She is very powerful with 9 KO/TKO victories, and she has never been finished via strikes herself.
She has very good Jiu Jitsu, she passes people’s guards with ease and likes to control her opponents from side control. She has a great mount and lands hard ground and pound elbows. She is vicious with her ground and pound and throws to finish the fight. She will take the back and get a rear naked choke. On the ground I feel she is extremely dangerous. She has good cardio and recoverability. She has gotten rocked, gotten back up very quickly and went right to work. She doesn’t get taken down herself very much, and she is good at reversing takedown attempts and ending up on top. She has a nice rear naked choke, and arm bar. She has 6 submissions, and never been submitted herself. She will be the stronger, better athlete in this matchup. Zhang needs to be aggressive on the feet and put it on Aguilar. If she can get her uncomfortable by landing big shots and continuing to forward pressure, I see her drawing out bad takedown attempts she can take advantage of.
Jessica Aguilar
Age: 36
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: ATT
From: Texas
MMA Record: 20-6
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 24
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +375
Jessica Aguilar is a high-octane fighter who has no problem getting in a brawl. She starts very fast, getting right in opponent’s faces, using a lot of fakes and feints, but she doesn’t have great defense. She doesn’t move her head and she’s a bit stiff with her movements, especially her punching combinations. She has nice low leg kicks and that is her best technique on the feet. She will go to the body with punches and then back up to the head. She is slow and can get potshotted and out-volumed. She has a good chin, good heart and will take shots to give her own. She had a good fight against Claudia Gadelha and was doing her best work in round 3 after taking a ton of damage. She was able to take down Courtney Casey multiple times but could not establish top position due to being up kicked. She has fought a high level of competition and has some of the most experience in WMMA. She isn’t a big power puncher and has just 2 KO/TKOs in her entire career. She has never been finished with strikes herself.
She is a tenacious wrestler and will fight tooth and nail if she needs a takedown. She has good explosion into her takedowns and will use a lot of single leg shots. She does a great job once getting opponents down, trying to pull them away from the cage and to the center where she can cement position easier. She struggled with the up-kick game of Cortney Casey, and although she was able to take her down at will, she couldn’t do anything with the top position, and was getting beat up herself. If she can establish good top position, then she does attack with decent ground & pound and will look for submissions. She has a nice arm triangle, and half guard is where she looks most comfortable in top position. She has great takedown defense and is hard to hold down. She was taken down 4 times by Claudia Gadelha and beat up on the ground a bit. She has 8 career submissions, and has never been finished in her career. She has a bevy of experience, and she needs to try to use that, and her strong cardio to gas Zhang out. Aguilar should look to stay technical on the feet, close the distance and clinch up early. She should want to zap some of the speed and power of Zhang early, and then try to capitalize late.
This fight is similar to Xiaonan/Kondo for me because of the pricing. I think this is another fight where the favorite likely gets a clear decision win, but her price tag is too high to want to invest heavily in. I do think Zhang is a solid fighter and does have a shot at getting the finish, but at $9.3k I think she will have to get that finish to end up on the winning LU. For that reason, this is another fight to fade in GPPs. I think Zhang will be the much better striker here and I see her getting an easy decision win in her home country if this fight stays standing. I think Aguilar will need to get takedowns and work for a submission or dominant top game performance to pull off the upset, and that is not something I want to be investing in.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Aguilar but mostly just as a cash game punt. This is another underdog spot where I think we get ~30-points in a loss. I do think this is a better GPP fight to target either side than the Xiaonan/Kondo fight, but it is still a fight I would fade if I was making less than 10 LUs. You could make a case for Zhang in GPPs if she is going to be low owned and you think she gets a finish, but I think Aguilar will be tough to finish so I can’t spend $9.3k on her when I can go up to Holland for $200 more. If you think Aguilar can get takedowns, then maybe she can steal a win here and that would put her in play. I just think I would rather fade both and target other fights for GPP.
Winner – Weili Zhang via Unanimous Decision
Rashad Coulter $8,400 vs Hu Yaozong $7,800
Rashad Coulter
Age: 36
Height: 5’11
Weight: 240
Reach: 76”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
MMA Record: 8-4
UFC Record: 0-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -135
Rashad Coulter has had some fun fights in the UFC, but he has been on the losing side of all of them. Rashad Coulter is a boxer, he is faster and more athletic than Hu IMO. He has power in his shots and has all 8 of his wins via KO. Coulter tries to get inside and throw bombs. He has a nice left hook and overhand right. He likes to use his jab to find range. He also has better hand speed then Hu. He could catch him in the pocket if they are throwing wildly. He doesn’t throw many kicks, but he has nice leg kicks. Coulter showed a lot of heart against Chase Sherman fighting back with his leg destroyed. He has been finished 3 times in a row by strikes, and his chin is probably not as good as it used to be.
Coulter is a better grappler than Hu and I see him using a grappling heavy game plan. He got a body lock takedown against Tai Tuivasa, and also did a good job of closing the distance and ducking under and getting in the clinch. In the clinch he is strong, and pretty explosive with short punches and knees. This is where I think he will have the most success striking and can possibly finish. When he gets on top, he has good elbows, but he isn’t a submission threat. He got taken down in his last fight, but he is explosive, and he can just explode up out of bad positions and stand up. He has never gotten a submission and never been submitted in his career. Coulter should look to close the distance dirty box and then take down Hu and finish him with G&P.
Yaozong Hu
Age: 23
Height: 6’2
Weight: 242
Reach: 72”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: China
MMA Record: 3-1
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 3-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +115
Hu is only 3-1 overall, and very young in his MMA career. He has never defeated a fighter with a winning record, and the combined record of his opponents he’s beaten are 1-6. Hu seems to just be a big guy who likes to brawl. He will crash the distance and throw straight punch combinations. He also has no problem throwing in the pocket with fighters. He still doesn’t know how to strike moving backwards, and when fighters pressure him he backs straight up and just shells up. He will throw occasional kicks, but they are slow and overall, he is not a good athlete. He doesn’t have huge power, but he has two TKO’s in 3 wins. He has never been finished himself.
Hu isn’t a great grappler at all. He isn’t really active with his own takedown attempts, but he will throw short knees in the clinch. He lets fighters get in on his legs and take him down easily. He will attack with a front choke/guillotine, which earned him his lone submission win. He can use it to get top position, where he does a good job of getting to the back, but his back control is poor. He was able to stand up a few times against Cyril Asker and showed improved get ups against the cage. He slows down in fights, and Asker was able to take him down and choke him out in his last match. I don’t think Hu should be in the UFC and is only probably fighting here because it’s in China. He needs to keep his range, throw kicks, and then try to time blitz attacks.
Both fighters here are making the drop to 205 lbs and I am not sure how many people are even aware of that. It is one of the better fights to target on the card because they are both so bad that mistakes will be made, and we could/should see a finish in this fight. I just don’t think it’s a lock that this ends in a finish with these guys fighting at 205 in better cardio shape than they would be in at HW. The line for FDGTD is -400 which is the highest on the card, but I think that is a bit high and I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a terrible 3-round fight here. From what I have seen, Coulter is the better fighter and the more powerful guy. Hu is very inexperienced, and he looked terrible against Cyril Asker, so I don’t even think he is UFC ready against anybody at this point. For that reason, I am favoring Coulter to get this win.
On DraftKings, this is one of the best fights on the card to target in GPPs with that -400 FDGTD line. If you are making multiple LUs this is a great one to target both sides of and just hope it ends early. Coulter is going to be my preferred play because I think he has the better shot at an early KO with his power. We do need to pick underdogs though, so if you favor Hu here then I would target him heavily and just hedge with Coulter in a couple LUs. Either way, if you are making 10 GPP LUs I think this fight should be in at least half of them. This is not a fight I would target in cash games though because both fighters have very low floors and it is hard to be confident enough in either guy to risk a 0 here in cash games. I would rather just take a cheap punt for cash and make this fight GPP only.
Winner – Rashad Coulter via 2nd round (T)KO
Lauren Mueller $9,200 vs Wu Yanan $7,000
Lauren Mueller
Age: 27
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: California
MMA Record: 5-0
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -410
Lauren Mueller is an impressive well-rounded prospect out of Alliance MMA. This is her first fight not in the USA, and only her 5th fight total. Mueller is also a come forward striker with power. She likes to walk fighters down and throw heat. She has nice long punches, a very good uppercut and right hand. She will throw a head kick too and she seems to have big power in her punches. She will throw wild techniques to close the distance like a Superman punch. Mueller can struggle to find her range when she gets tired and has her hands way down just plodding forward. She seems to have a good chin as she eats shots and reacts but keeps walking forward. When she lands clean you can tell fighters respect it and will back away or shell up. She has one KO/TKO in 5 wins and has never been finished.
Mueller is very good in the clinch, she lands hard knees to the body and the head. She has strong cage control, digs underhooks, and lands short shots. She likes to throw short elbows in that position, and then duck under for single legs. On top she is very aggressive with G&P and will sacrifice position to try to land brutal shots. She is always coming forward and putting pressure on opponents, and her cage grinding style wears opponents out. She also has cardio problems because she goes full blast in her attacks and throws everything in her shots. She gets very tired, taking huge deep breaths and just walks you down and doesn’t throw much. She was taking the fight on very short notice on DWCS, so that may be the reason why she was so tired in that match. Mueller should focus on clinch fighting for this fight. She should look to close distances quickly, get Wu against the cage and land her knees and elbows. She should have a big technique advantage in the clinch, and it will be her easiest path to victory.
Yanan Wu
Age: 22
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 66”
Gym: N/A
From: China
MMA Record: 8-2
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +330
Yanan Wu is a tall and long Bantamweight. She likes to throw a stiff jab from the outside followed by punch combinations. She is aggressive, she likes to walk forward and has decent hand speed in the pocket. She does throw wide and wild at times and looks to leave herself open to being countered, she is not the most fleet of foot woman either and kind of plods forward. She will throw out a leg kick or a front kick, but they are more to find the range than land with effect. She struggles with forward pressure and doesn’t know how to strike moving backwards. She has a lot of experience for only being 22 years old being pro since 2013. She has won 6 fights via KO/TKO and does pack some power. She has only been finished 1 time via strikes, and it was on the ground.
Wu is strong early, and good in the clinch landing knees and short punches. She used a body lock takedown and went straight into mount to finish the fight with strikes from the top in a bout. When she fought Yana Kunitskaya, and Gina Mazany she got taken down rather easily, but she showed some skills off of her back almost getting a sweep and attacking with a leg lock. She was also attacking the arm with an armbar, but during the whole time she was taking damage and not attempting to get up. She seems to enjoy leg locks and working in 50-50 guard. She was eventually overwhelmed and stopped by ground and pound in round 1 vs Yuna. She seems to lack a little size and strength and can get bullied in the clinch. Overall, I feel she has good potential, and the ability to improve. She has only 1 submission and never been finished. She tends to get tired in round 2 and 3 and just tries to sloppily get into the clinch. She reacted oddly to getting hit with a shot against Mazany, and she may be a bit mentally weak. Wu should try to keep this on the feet and strike. She has heavy hands and she has the skills to clip and finish Mueller or potentially win a decision by landing the harder shots.
This fight is just like the two other chick fights in the $9k range for me. They all should win, but I don’t know if any of them will get near the 90+ points we will need from them at their salaries. That is what makes Holland such a great play for me. The line for this fight going the distance is -380 and when I am paying over $9k for a fighter those are not the odds I want to target. I think Mueller is going to be the better fighter everywhere and should get a clear win, but I have a hard time seeing her have much of a ceiling that we need in GPPs. In her first UFC fight she scored 72 DK points in a unanimous decision win. If she does that again here at $9.2k then you won’t be winning that 1st place prize.
On DraftKings, this is a complete fade fight for me. I like the underdogs to score more in losses for those other two chick fights, so I will go to one of them as my cash punt for cheaper than Wu. I think Mueller would be the preferred play if I had to use this fight in a GPP, but she won’t be making my player pool. She will be low owned and if she can get a finish then maybe she can be on the winning LU. However, I would only target her in deep GPPs and I think she wins another 70-80-point decision win here.
Winner – Lauren Mueller via Unanimous Decision
Song Kenan $8,300 vs Alex Morono $7,900
Kenan Song
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: China
MMA Record: 14-4
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 239
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -105
Kenan Song is trying to go 3-0 in the UFC and cement himself as a prospect to watch in 2019. He is training out of Jackson Wink, and he is a powerful striker with one punch knock out power. He is a great counter boxer and has a nasty straight right hand, which he has used to finish both of his UFC fights. He has a good counter right hook and will crash the distance with straight punches. He will throw occasional front kicks to the body and the knee. He has strong body kicks. He is flat footed, and he needs opponents to engage with him in the pocket to be effective usually. Fighters who can stick and move will give him problems on the feet. He will try to throw the occasional spinning heel kicks to the body or head. He is a warrior and will continue to walk forward through shots to have the opportunity to land one and finish the match. He has 7 KO/TKOs and has finished 4 of his last five matches in that way. He has been finished by strikes twice in his career.
Song is not really a grappler. He will not go for takedowns unless he is getting beat up on the feet. He likes to get clinch takedowns, but he doesn’t have great top control or a dangerous top game. His takedown defense is not great, he gets double legged very easily, and will go for guillotines instead of defending the takedown. Off his back he isn’t very dangerous and can be controlled and finished with G&P. He did a better job of standing back up to his feet after being taken down than in previous fights. He does have 3 guillotine chokes, and 6 submissions overall. He has never been submitted himself. He seems to get tired in round 2 of fights, but he can fight through fatigue. Song is going to need to get Morono to open up with forward pressure, and counter with his boxing. If he can land a clean right hand he can put Morono to sleep.
Alex Morono
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Gracia Barra Woodlands
From: Texas
MMA Record: 14-5
UFC Record: 3-2-1
Fight Matrix: 72
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -115
Alex Morono has lost 2/3 fights and he will most likely be fighting for his job on Saturday night. He has experience fighting in Asia in the UFC already. He competed in Japan against Keita Nakamura last year and lost a very close decision. Morono is training at Fortis MMA for this camp which is a great camp, and arguably the best MMA camp in Texas. Alex Morono is a Taekwondo black belt, and you can really see it in the way he fights. He keeps a wide stance, he has solid lateral footwork offensively and defensively. He will lead the dance by using lateral movement to cut off the cage and stay in your face or he can use it defensively to circle and angle off and not get hit. He always is aware of where he is in the cage and will not let himself get backed up behind the warning track. He is light on his feet and tries to dart in with leg kicks and high kicks. He has a solid head kick and good spinning heel kick. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. He can get lazy throwing kicks sometimes and leave his chin in the air. He stands up very tall and is there to be leg kicked and taken down. He doesn’t throw in combination a lot, especially with his hands. He will try to dart in with one overhand right or throw a jab or spinning backfist, but he doesn’t put long combos together. His footwork and ability to cut guys off and keep a pace and high volume of strikes on him is probably his greatest strength. He wears guys down and can start to take over late. He showed some pretty clean counter punching against Niko Price dropping him twice in round 1, but overall, he hasn’t shown big power. He can get wild and wing looping hooks at times and someone eventually could take advantage of that. He needs to be defensively sound in this match, and use a lot of movement and leg kicks, while not staying in the pocket with Song. He has 4 KO/TKOs and has gotten finished twice by KO/TKO.
Alex Morono is not a wrestler, but he is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has no takedowns in the UFC, but he will throw knees in the clinch and shots off the break. He will jump for guillotines, getting one against Josh Burkman. Off his back, he will attack with subs and showed nice elbows off his back in his last match. He doesn’t have great get ups, and he is too comfortable staying on his back. I don’t think that will be a problem in this match, but he may go for takedowns himself. I think Morono should try to stay on the outside, throw kicks and move. If he can get the fight to the ground, I think he will have a sizeable advantage.
This is not a great fight talent wise, but I think it is one that should be targeted on DK. Both fighters are in that mid-range area so a finish from either guy here could put them on the winning LU. I also think it will go under owned because people won’t be confident in either guy and that will have them picking elsewhere. I like picking against low level talent and I think both of these guys are lower level for UFC fighters and that is why I like targeting it. I think these Chinese fighters tend to perform better in their home country when we do see fights over there. Plus, if a fight is close you have to think the judges will lean towards the fighter the crowd reacts more to. I think Song has more power and I think he is the more likely fighter to finish this fight, but if he doesn’t get the finish I would still favor him in a decision for those two reasons I just mentioned.
On DraftKings, my preferred play here is Kenan Song. I think he does have 100-point upside at only $8.3k, and I think he is a solid pivot away from a chalky Coulter for that reason. He should be much lower owned, and I think there is a chance he outscores Coulter even if they both win. Song lands almost 1 more sig strike per minute (4.60) compared to Morono (3.66) and I don’t see either of these guys wanting to go for takedowns. I think Morono will need a clear win here to get the nod from the judges and I don’t see him getting the KO. For that reason, I will probably fade Morono personally just because I won’t be making many LUs. If you do favor Morono to win then I think he is a fine target at $7.9k in a very close matchup. If I was making 10 LUs then I would be targeting both sides, but I would probably have something like 4-5 Song and 2 Morono. I have thought about using Song in cash games as well because I think he should be a slightly higher favorite here, but I think he makes a better GPP play than cash play here because it is such a close fight.
Winner – Kenan Song via 2nd round (T)KO
Li Jingliang $8,500 vs David Zawada $7,700
Li Jingliang
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: China Top Team
From: China
MMA Record: 15-5
UFC Record: 7-3
Fight Matrix: 88
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -175
Li Jingliang will be fighting in China again after a nasty first round KO in China last year. He has won 5 of 6 fights 3 by KO/TKO. He has good shots in the pocket with his hooks and a takes a shot to give a shot. He has nice low leg kicks, and nice straight right hand. He will let his hand go in the pocket and throw hooks and uppercuts. He likes to walk fighters down and counter with an overhand right. He has a questionable chin, sometimes gets rocked early and comes back to win like vs Camacho and Nash but got smashed by Jake Matthews his last loss. He has big power in his straight right hand and can put fighters down with it. He has 5 KO/TKOs and has never been finished with strikes.
He used to get taken down and controlled earlier in his career, but since going to Xtreme Coutures his grappling has improved immensely. He has solid takedown defense and get ups now. If fighters are able to get on top of him, he still doesn’t have a great bottom game and can be controlled on the mat. Jake Matthews was able to take his back, and also probably would have submitted him if Jingliang didn’t gouge his eyes. Jingliang will not be trying to engage in the grappling or the clinch in this fight and will want to use his striking in reverse to make it a range striking fight. Li Jingliang needs to make this a range striking fight and try to hit and not get hit. He can’t go to war with a more durable and powerful Zawada.
David Zawada
Age: 28
Height:
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: UFD Gym Düsseldorf
From: Germany
MMA Record: 16-4
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 126
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +155
David Zawada vs Li Jingliang is a banger. Both fighters are aggressive strikers with knock out power. David Zawada is explosive, athletic, and a very physically imposing fighter. He likes to stalk opponents, and use hiding combinations. He closes the distance with a left hook straight right hand. He also will blitz forward with two or three straight right hands. He is very fast, and he closes distance quickly. In the pocket he will let go with multi punch combinations, and he has good head movement slipping punches in the pocket. He is very willing to exchange in the pocket, and he rarely ever takes a step backwards. He has a good step in knee, and he also has nice body kicks. He wears on opponents, and you could see that in his UFC vs Danny Roberts in a grueling match. Zawada has 11 KO/TKOs in his career and is a finisher. He has only been finished one time via KO in his career and has a strong chin.
Zawada is a strong grappler, and very active seeker of the submission. He will shoot for doubles and singles against the cage and likes to fight in the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body, head and strong dirty boxing, throwing hard hooks and uppercuts. He likes to use sacrifice throws in the clinch to get on top and can end up on his back because of it. He is very good on his back and does a great job of moving and creating scrambles. He does a great job of attacking with leg locks, taking the back, as well as sweeping to top position from guard or half guard. He likes to get to side saddle and throw hard elbows and punches. He also will work for the rear naked choke. He has good cardio and is able to push through fatigue. He has 3 submissions himself and has been submitted one time. Zawada is going to need to come forward and make this a brawl with Jingliang. Jingliang has been getting rocked in many recent fights and if Zawada can land clean he can knock him out. I also think he is the stronger wrestler/grappler which he could resort to if he’s losing the stand up.
This is one of the fights on the card I am looking forward to the most. I love watching Jingliang fight and I expect this to be a good one. Maybe even FOTN. I think this is a solid fight to target both sides of for that reason. I am going to favor Jingliang because it is in China and I think he will be the fighter who controls where this fight goes. I think this fight will mostly take place on the feet and Jingliang lands 4.84 sig strikes per minute compared to Zawada’s 2.2 per minute. I think that pace and this being in his home country will be enough to get Jingliang a decision win here. I think he could also get a finish on the feet or the ground, but I see this fight going the distance. Jingliang has been clipped on the feet multiple times though and Zawada has the power where he could put him away if that happens here. Zawada has 11 (T)KO’s on his record and I expect him to try and test the chin of Jingliang here. Either guy could take this fight to the ground, but I think Jingliang would be the more likely guy to do that. I think Zawada will be going for the finish here because it will be hard to get a judge’s nod against the popular fighter in his home country.
On DraftKings, Jingliang is my preferred fighter but this is one of the better GPP fights on the card to target both sides of. I think whoever wins this fight has a good chance at getting more than 10x their salary, and if you are confident in either guy then I think it would be a good plan to go heavy on them in this matchup, and then hedge a couple LUs with the other guy. For me, I am pretty confident Li is the better fighter here and he will perform well in China. I am just not confident in his chin and that is why I like both sides of this fight. Jingliang fights at a pace where even in a decision win, he is likely to outscore his $8.5k salary here. He also has 100+ point upside if he is able to get a finish. With Zawada, I think we are looking for the KO and if he gets a KO at $7.7k then he has a great shot at being on the 1st place LU, no matter what round it comes in. With 10 LUs I think I would want about 4 Jingliang’s and 2 Zawada LUs. I don’t think it is a must target fight, but it is one of the better ones and I think we would want it in over half our LUs.
Winner – Li JingLiang via Unanimous Decision
Song Yadong $9,100 vs Vince Morales $7,100
Yadong Song
Age: 20
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: China
MMA Record: 13-4
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 65
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -425
Yadong Song is back. He had a scintillating performance in his UFC debut, and put everyone on notice that he is a prospect to watch. He is now 2-0 with 2 finishes in his UFC career. A win here could catapult him to top 15 matchups so it’s a very important fight. The 20-year-old is extremely experienced having fought professionally since he was 15 years old. He is a very solid striker, he’s light on his feet and keeps good pressure owning the center of the cage. He has a long karate type stance and does a great job of leaping in with explosive, accurate punching combos and getting out. He has a powerful straight and overhand right, dropping his last opponent with it before getting the guillotine. His distance control is very good, he can slide in and out of range very well. He does a good job of slipping shots and returning with counters. He has a good left hook right straight combination. He has a nice inside and outside leg kick. He always has great balance on the feet, is smooth and fluid with very little wasted movement. I think his in and out movement will be key to winning the fight on the feet. He needs to stay out of boxing range, and not fight in the pocket much. If he can dart in, land his shots and exit, at range Morales is much less dangerous. Song is very powerful and explosive, having won 6 fights vía KO/TKO. He Hs been finished one time via strikes, in MMA and I also watched a 2016 kick boxing match where he was knocked out as well.
Song is a strong fighter for bantamweight, and you can really see it in grappling exchanges. In the clinch he bullies fighters with knees, elbows and can throw opponents around. He landed a nasty elbow in his last match in the clinch that dropped and finished Arantes. His takedown defense is super strong, he was easily able to reverse the double leg of Arantes and end up on top where he landed brutal ground & pound. He does a great job of using heavy pressure in top position, and then posturing and throwing hard punches to the body, as well as punches and elbows to the head. He dominated Arantes on the ground with G&P in his guard ultimately finishing him and was never threatened. Árantes is known for having a good guard and submission game, and Song completely nullified it. Song also has good back takes and great control. He has a good arm triangle submission, and you can see his grappling really improving. He won’t shoot for many takedowns himself. I have seen him get taken down with a body lock, and he is calm on bottom until he can find an opening to return to his feet. He has 3 submissions and never been submitted himself. Song needs to respect the boxing of Morales, on the feet, and fight smart in this match. He needs to use footwork move in and out and frustrate Morales to make him open up. If he can get Morales chasing he could catch him coming in and finish the match.
Vince Morales
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Free Fight MMA
From: Oregon
MMA Record: 8-2
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 303
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +340
Vincent Morales is a boxer, and he is pretty one dimensional, but that one dimension is extremely good. He has fast, crisp hands, nasty punching combinations and extremely accurate. He has a sick jab and he will double and triple it up. He will paw the jab out to land the straight right hand and it is clean and powerful. He has a nice short left hook, and in the pocket will unload with clean punching combinations. He likes to land the long leaping right hand if he gets his opponent’s backing up. His counter left hook backing up is nasty and when he lands clean he can finish the fight. He is aggressive and keeps a good pace. He will throw hooks to the body, and the occasional leg kick. He has a questionable chin and when he gets clipped he will wobble in a lot of fights. He has good ability to recover and keep going.
He isn’t a grappler, and very rarely will ever go for takedowns or initiate the clinch. If fighters initiate the clinch on him, he has really improved his takedown defense, and he is very hard to take down. He does a great job of sprawling on double legs, and not letting fighters cement position if they do get him down and bouncing right back. He circled to the back and got a slam takedown in his last Bellator match. He also has great ground & pound after he drops opponents that lead to brutal knockouts. He has two submissions and was submitted in his lone loss. When he got his back taken in his loss, he looked very uncomfortable and got submitted rather quickly. He has finished all but one of his fights, and just won his first decision in September. Morales needs to come out fast and try to catch Song early. If Morales can push the pace and make this a boxing oriented fight he has a real chance to pull the upset.
I expect Song Yadong has a ton of potential and I am excited to see him fight in the UFC again. He has looked great in both his UFC fights and he scored over 100 DK points in both of those wins. I expect him to be one of the highest owned guys on this card, but for good reason with those $9.2k-$9.4k girls that I am fading in GPPs. I love that upside of Yadong and I think this is a great matchup for him to get another impressive win here. I think this will be the toughest fight yet for Yadong, but I expect him to win it everywhere and I see him getting another finish. I expect this to be one of the higher paced fights on the card and I think Yadong easily outscores the 3 ladies priced above him if they all win decisions. Morales has only been to a decision once in his career, so I expect him to come out with a kill or be killed attitude in China.
On DraftKings, Song Yadong is one of my favorite plays on the card and he is in play for all formats. I do expect him to be over 40% owned in GPPs so I think we should be higher than that if we are making multiple LUs. If you are only making 1 LU, I think starting with Yadong is a solid idea with his -155 ITD line and one of the highest betting lines on the card. If you are making multiple LUs, I think going heavy on Yadong and then a small hedge with Morales is the way to go. If Morales can get the upset here then almost half of the LUs will be dead with Yadong on there, and Morales will go under owned with all the hype on Yadong here. I think 6-7 Yadong and 1-2 Morales would be the way I would want to go here. I do think this is a set-up match for Yadong though and I think the UFC will get the win they are hoping for here. I am very high on Yadong in general and I am excited to see how he looks here.
Winner – Song Yadong via 2nd round submission
Sergei Pavlovich $8,200 vs Alistair Overeem $8,000
Sergei Pavlovich
Age: 26
Height: 6’3
Weight: 257
Reach: N/A
Gym: Eagles MMA
From: Russia
MMA Record: 12-0
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 33
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -120
Sergei Pavlovich is a highly touted HW prospect out of Russia. He trains at Eagles MMA with Khabib’s father and has an extensive resume against solid competition entering the UFC. He is 12-0 and beaten some tough Russian fighters on the local scene. He definitely is a strong athlete, and physically imposing fighter in the cage, but I would say he is still developing. He is a bit stiff with his movement and doesn’t flow his striking and grappling together yet. He likes to plod forward and keep forward pressure on opponents while pawing out a jab or left hook. He likes to draw out strikes from his opponents, and counter with straight punches. He has pretty good hand speed if you trade with him in the pocket, and big one-shot power. He landed a nasty overhand right, dropping, and finishing his opponent in his last match. He will throw hard, low leg kicks, and does a good job of attacking opponents front leg. Fighters who are able to move, and use footwork tend to give him trouble. Quicker fighters are able to close the distance, land and exit before Pavlovich can return, and have Pavlovich going second the entire match. Pavlovich will throw the occasional body, and head kick, but they are pretty sloppy. He is a bit stiff overall with his striking. He needs to be more aggressive in this matchup on the feet. He needs to go first, and not let Overeem dictate the pace and range of the fight. Pavlovich is explosive, and in short range will have the power to hurt Overeem. He had 9 KO/TKOs in 12 wins and has yet to taste defeat.
Pavlovich seems like a very strong wrestler, but oddly he doesn’t use his wrestling much in fights. He struggles to get close enough to safely shoot a takedown, or get in the clinch, and makes a lot of fights striking affairs. If he can close the distance and get a, body lock he is extremely strong, and will slam opponents to the mat. He doesn’t seem to like to work on the ground much, and he just stands up from top position. His takedown defense is very strong, and he is hard to take down. Sergey has a nice knee to the head in the clinch, and when he thinks he can finish the fight he goes for it. He has good cardio especially for a heavyweight and has had a couple five round fights. He is not a submission threat having 0 in his career. Pavlovich needs to be aggressive in this match, close the distance, throw his overhands, hooks, and clinch knees. He has huge power, and if he can get Overeem backed against the fence or in a position where he has to trade punches he can easily knock him out.
Alistair Overeem
Age: 38
Height: 6’4
Weight: 234
Reach: 80”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Netherlands
MMA Record: 43-17
UFC Record: 8-6
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +100
Alistair Overeem is a veteran of the sport, and a true legend in the game. He has been pro since 1999, and still is in the UFC today putting it down. He has been finished in back to back fights, and he looks as if he may be on his last legs. He decided to go to Elevation Fight Team after his loss to Curtis Blaydes, and train with him for this camp. Overeem is an amazing striker, and definitely will be the most skilled fighter Pavlovich has ever faced. I expect Overeem to return to his methodical hands down style. He will be looking to counter punch and throw a lot of fakes and feints, trying to lure his opponents in and potshot them. He has a nasty straight right hand and is still very quick and fluid with both his hands and kicks. He has a nice counter left hook and can land it while angling off. He will have no problem playing an outside striking game with Pavlovich, and I could see this fight being a boring staring match. He has very nice leg kicks and will throw the occasional hard body kick. Overeem will also get creative, and throw front kicks to the face, or jumping kicks like he landed on Arlovski. Alistair has struggled with people with longer or similar reach to him because I think he feels uncomfortable they can hit him at the same distance he can hit them. He has UFC losses to Antonio Silva, Travis Browne, Ben Rothwell, Stipe Miocic, Francis Ngannou, and Curtis Blaydes. All those guys have as long as a reach or longer reach than Alistair. I was not able to find Pavlovich’s reach, but I do not think it is that long. Overeem is a knockout artist, but also has well documented chin problems. He has 21 KO/TKOs, but been finished himself 13 times himself with strikes, and his last two fights. Overeem is aware his chin is gone, and he tends to be very careful in the octagon nowadays and he needs to do that here.
Overeem is an underrated grappler, and he has gotten more grappling centric later on in his career. When fighters close the distance on him, he no longer brawls, he will clinch up try to get double under hooks where he is nasty. He has devastating knees to the body and head and has finished multiple fighters with clinch knees. His takedown defense is very good and on top he is good. He has strong ground & pound and can control you and not let fighters up. He has a very good guillotine. He isn’t great off his back, and while he is hard to submit he has been finished by Stipe Miocic and Curtis Blaydes with G&P. Overeem slows a bit in round 3, but overall, he has good cardio for a HW. Overeem needs to stick and move in this match. He is way more experienced and if he can draw Pavlovich into a slow-paced range striking match that’s exactly what he wants.
I don’t think there is a question who the better overall fighter is here. Overeem has proven over the years he is one of the best strikers in MMA history and he has a big edge in the striking in this fight as well. The issue with Overeem is his chin. He has been (T)KO’d 13 times in his career and twice in the last year. That chin isn’t going to improve at his age and I don’t think it will take much from Sergey to knock him out here. I think if Sergey can connect one hard time then this fight could be over. If he can’t then he probably loses. Overeem might come out and try to get this fight to the ground and win with his wrestling so that his chin isn’t at risk. I just am not sure if he can do that for the entire 15-minutes and I am so nervous about his chin that I really don’t want to invest in him at this point, even with the technical striking edge he will have here. He could finish the fight himself via KO or submission, but we have never seen Sergey finished in his career, so I have to give him the edge in the chin department at this point.
On DraftKings, Sergey is my preferred play and it’s just because of his power combined with Overeem’s failing chin. I don’t think Overeem should be fighting much more because there are some very heavy hitters in the HW division and Sergey is definitely one of them. Sergey has 9 (T)KO’s on his record and he throws some serious heat when he opens up on his opponents. If he throws bombs at the volume like he has in his other fights, I don’t see Overeem being able to hold up. I think this is a stay away fight in cash with the floors of these two, but it is a great GPP fight to target either way. I am going to favor Sergey, but I will have Overeem as well because they are in the mid-range of the salaries. If there is a finish in this fight then the winner is probably going to be on the winning LU, especially if that winner is Sergey. We have seen Overeem be more hesitant lately, and if he wins a decision here then he might score very low, so I think we need the finish in this fight for it to pay off. I think you can also make a LU with Sergey and if you want you can just duplicate it and use Overeem in the other LU so that way you have both sides in case there is a finish.
Winner – Sergey Pavlovich via 1st round (T)KO
Curtis Blaydes $8,700 vs Francis Ngannou $7,500
Curtis Blaydes
Age: 27
Height: 6’4
Weight: 255
Reach: 80”
Gym: Elevation Fight Tea
From: Oklahoma
MMA Record: 10-1
UFC Record: 5-1-1
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -230
Francis Ngannou vs Curtis Blaydes is a rematch of two fighters going in opposite directions. Francis Ngannou defeated Curtis Blaydes in their first fight, using that momentum to catapult himself into the top 15. He quickly ascended the ranks earned a title shot and was thoroughly outclassed. In his return match after that fight, he wasn’t able to pull the trigger, and was struggling with a mental block. Curtis Blaydes has not lost since his fight with Ngannou. He is 5-1 with one no contest for marijuana, so basically 6-0 since his fight with Ngannou. With a win here, Blaydes will have cemented himself as the clear number 1 contender in the HW division. Blaydes is an impressive athlete and going to be much more prepared for this match than the first time. He is now training at a good gym Elevation Fight Team in Colorado, which gives him great cardio for a HW. His physique has changed since him and Francis’s first match, and he’s now much leaner and in better shape. He is improving his striking, and he has much better footwork and feints than he had at the start of his UFC Career. He will throw a lot of jabs and 1-2s. He is quick for a heavyweight and tries to march you down and throws a decent amount of volume even if he isn’t super accurate. He can sometimes retract his punches a little slow and can get countered and clipped. He has a very good chin. He was never hurt badly and took a ton of shots against Ngannou, and then survived a knockdown in round 1 against Mark Hunt. He recovers extremely quickly. His right hand is powerful, and if he can land one clean on the chin he can knock fighter’s unconscious. His speed footwork, head movement and cardio will be hard for HWs to deal with standing up, and that’s with them knowing Blaydes is always trying to take them down also. Blaydes has 8 KO/TKOs and was finished by strikes in his lone loss to Francis, but that was due to a referee stoppage due to his eye swelling shut, not Blaydes being finished by a big shot.
Blaydes is one of the best HW wrestlers I have ever seen. He is one of the few HWs who are athletic enough to shoot takedowns, and he does an excellent job of waiting until fighters are just a little off balance or a little out of position and blasting an easy double leg. He is much better at closing the distance safely, and timing when to shoot them than the first time him and Francis fought. I don’t see him getting hit coming in nearly as much as the previous fight. He likes to grind in the clinch as well, where he will get his opponent to the cage, and work short shots while looking to find a takedown. On top he is vicious. He rearranged the face of Alistair Overeem in his last match, and he has learned where he is strongest in top position. In their first match Blaydes got a takedown, was in a dominant position in side control, and let Ngannou dig an under hook and stand up. I see him correcting that this match. I see Blaydes trying to get in Ngannou’s full guard, or half guard and cement position before going for Ground & pound. Francis is super strong and explosive, so I think the easiest way to control him would be from full guard or half guard on top. If Blaydes can take down Ngannou at will like Miocic, I don’t see Ngannou lasting all 5 rounds. Blaydes has tremendous cardio, and I see that playing a factor here if the fight reaches the later rounds. Blaydes isn’t fazed by the fact he already has a loss to Francis, and the fact it was a doctor’s stoppage helps Blaydes believe he would have won that fight if that didn’t happen.
Francis Ngannou
Age: 32
Height: 6’4
Weight: 264
Reach: 83”
Gym: MMA Factory
From: France
MMA Record: 11-3
UFC Record: 6-2
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +190
Francis Ngannou looked as if he was going to be one of the greatest HWs of all time. When he was set to fight against Stipe Miocic, it seemed as everyone thought it was a foregone conclusion he would take the belt. Now he is on the verge of losing 3 consecutive fights and is in a very rough position in his career. Ngannou is a scary dude and probably the most powerful one-shot striker in the UFC. He isn’t extremely technical, but he is patient, and does a good job of picking his shots. He likes to walk fighters down and wait for them to throw so he can counter. He will throw out a jab, and actually uses it from both stances. He likes to slip punches in close range, and counter with huge hooks and uppercuts. He does an excellent job of timing his counter right uppercut, and it is one of the most devastating punches in UFC history. He likes to throw a right or left hook to uppercut combination. He will occasionally throw leg and body kicks, and his kicks are very powerful. I don’t see him trying to throw many kicks here against a great wrestler in Blaydes. Fighters should probably look to strike from the outside against Ngannou. Low kicks, throw jabs and move, something Blaydes can do, and not engage in a punching exchange in the pocket with Ngannou. Ngannou has a great chin and took some massive shots from Stipe Miocic and seemed unfazed. He has never been finished with strikes. Obviously, power is the name of the game for Francis Ngannou, and he has 7 KO/TKO wins.
Ngannou is a poor grappler, and that was really exposed in his Stipe Miocic fight. He isn’t an offensive wrestler, and I have yet to see him attempt a takedown or try to initiate the clinch in the UFC. In the clinch, Ngannou’s pure physicality makes him hard to deal with. He is extremely strong and does a good job of reversing position when opponents jam him against the cage, and land shots of his own. He has pretty solid initial takedown defense. He has a good overhook he uses to yank up his opponent, and opponents have to be weary of the uppercut whenever they’re looking to get it down. Ngannou isn’t terrible off his back. He does a good job of digging under hooks and exploding back to his feet, as well as using a modified version of the butterfly guard to offset the balance of his opponent and stand back up. Ngannou has some odd submissions in his career. He had a nasty kimura on Anthony Hamilton, literally ripping him to the ground with it in the clinch, and a nasty straight arm bar from mount in another fight. He has 3 career submissions, and never been submitted himself. He gasses out very badly, and once he’s tired, his bottom game goes out the window and he can be taken down easily. The fact this is a five-round fight really favors Curtis Blaydes. Ngannou is going to need to be more aggressive in this match. He can’t just let Blaydes back him up and get in on his legs. He needs to be moving and throwing a lot of volume. Throw the jab, the right and left cross and a lot of uppercuts. He should be throwing uppercuts repeatedly as Blaydes level changes and make him think twice about shooting. The later this fight goes the better for Blaydes, so if I’m in Ngannou’s corner I want to see an early finish.
As with most main events, this is probably the best fight on the card to target. I also think we can just stack in cash and take the 100+ points and the guaranteed win. I think Blaydes has the highest ceiling on the card with his takedown upside, and that is how he will need to win this fight. If he can’t get takedowns in this fight, then I think Ngannou is going to put him away in a 25-minute striking fight. Blaydes was 2 for 6 in takedowns in their first fight, and Ngannou was able to get up quickly after both of those and he ended up finishing the fight due to the damage he did to the eye of Blaydes. I think Ngannou is still the better striker and he is live for a knockout upset win in this fight. I just think his ceiling is mid 100-110 because he will not be going for takedowns here and he does not strike at volume. Blaydes on the other hand could have 150-point ceiling here and he has scored over 100-points in 5 of his 6 UFC wins. I just think it is going to be hard for Blaydes to wrestle for 5-rounds here and he may gas out by trying to do that. I think he is going to need to finish Ngannou here because I think Ngannou can KO him in the 4th or 5th round if Blaydes is gassed from a takedown-heavy game plan. However, I think a finish is the only way Ngannou wins here because if it does go to a decision I would think Blaydes had early success with takedowns and wasn’t able to get the finish. If Blaydes is forced to stand the whole time, I think Ngannou will get a (T)KO victory at some point because he has so much power and he knows he can win this fight because he has done it before.
On DraftKings, this is a fight to target both sides of. I will say my preferred play is Ngannou because I am going to pick him to win, but I am really just picking him to win because I don’t want to pick all favorites and he has a clear path to victory here. We have to have underdogs in our lineups, so that is why he is my preferred play. I think the smart play here is probably Blaydes and his high ceiling, but I am not liking many underdogs this week and it makes me want to target Ngannou more for that reason. Either way, this is a great fight to target both sides of and you can go all-in on this fight if you are making 10 or so LUs. I don’t even hate a 5/5 approach here if you don’t have a strong lean on either guy. If you are confident in either guy, then you should go heavier on them and use the opposite guy as more of a hedge. I will be stacking this fight in cash games though and I think we get over 100 total points which is what I like to get if I am stacking a fight. Since I don’t like underdogs on this card, I am picking Ngannou to win and I will have more of him than I have of Blaydes.
Winner – Francis Ngannou via 3rd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this article and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley, and if you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.