BigMarley3’s DraftKings UFC Breakdown
Event – UFC Fight Night 140 Location – Buenos Aires, Argentina
Thanks for purchasing my UFC FN 140 full DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Buenos Aires, Argentina. There are not a lot of big tournaments for this card on DraftKings, but there is still money to be won. The main tourney is an $8 entry and pays $15k to 1st, and $75k in total. That is the main GPP I will be chasing this week. As always, I will be in the 3-entry max and single entry GPPs as well. However, most of my play this week will be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, lets break down these UFC Argentina fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Nad Narimani $9,100 vs Anderson Dos Santos $7,100
Nad Narimani (-320) has a record of 11-2 and he won his UFC debut a few months back. Narimani is a grinder and a forward pressure fighter. He is light on his feet and has a good jab. He throws leg and body kicks. He will throw front snap kicks to the body, and he is always trying to move in and out of range and be a moving target. He will throw a straight right hand, and right hook. He also has a decent check left hook, but he can struggle to find his range at times. He will open up with jump knees, jumping round house kicks, and will use those techniques to close the distance. He really doesn’t have great striking. His striking is just to find a takedown. He can enter striking range with his chin high when he kicks at times and tends to look uncomfortable if he cannot find the takedown for long periods of time. He needs to be very careful in close range with Dos Santos and cannot walk into a shot because Dos Santos has the power to hurt him. Narimani doesn’t have big power and only has 2 TKOs in his career. He has a strong chin, and is a tough guy, never being finished.
Narimani is a strong wrestler, and always looking for an opening to take it to the ground. He does a great job of catching kicks and getting the fight to the mat. He also has good timing on double legs. He has good control on top, and when his opponent gets up he does a great job of staying attached to his opponent and grinding on them. He does a good job of finding the back where he has good control. He was shucked off by Taha, but he does a good job of digging a strong under hook and standing up from under opponents. He is very physically strong, and he is strong in the clinch. He gets double under hooks and slows down the fight against the cage. He has a good rear naked choke. He has never been submitted himself. He has great cardio. I see Narimani trying to do his thing. Pressure get Dos Santos moving backwards and get him to the ground. If he can get Anderson on his back and grind him out he should win a decision.
Anderson Dos Santos (+260) has a 19-6 record and is making his UFC debut here on short notice, fresh off a decision victory November 3rd. He is fighting for the second time in 3 weeks. He is the third replacement opponent for Narimani, but a great one IMO. He is somebody I have long wanted to see in the UFC. He is a bit older now, but still very dangerous and could be a tough matchup for Narimani. Dos Santos is a dangerous Muay Thai striker. He likes to plant his feet in the center. He has fast hands and throws all his shots with full power. He throws very little jabs or set ups, instead using counter hooks, and straight punches. He has a nasty right hook and a very nice check left hook. His straight right hand has big power, and he dropped Ricky Simón with it, and choked him out. He has no problem throwing down in the pocket and is calm in a war. He is flat footed and will stand right in front of fighters while walking them down. He will rarely throw kicks, but he will throw the occasional leg kick. He can get clipped as he moves into range, but he has a good chin and will continue to press forward. His style will always leave him open to potentially get finished by strikes, but he is a finisher and it makes him dangerous as well. He has 5 KO/TKOs and will drop and finish fighters also. He has been finished 3 times via KO/TKO himself.
He is a good grappler and has good clinch control. He will dig an under-hook, and land knees while trying to dump his opponent to one side or take the back standing. He will change levels and attempt single or double legs against the cage. He isn’t a great wrestler and can struggle to finish takedowns, but he has good cage control. If he can get on top he is nasty, he transitions very quickly and will move right into mount, where he will land heavy ground & pound until fighters give their backs and he chokes them out. He has 8 rear naked chokes, and he is very good at scrambling and finding the back. He doesn’t have great takedown defense, and if opponents pass his guard they are able to land ground & pound on him. He is tough, and he will never stop moving or trying to survive in a situation on the mat, while possessing solid get ups against the cage. He has great cardio and is a pressure fighter. Dos Santos needs to look to keep this fight standing and stay off his back. He probably will have the faster hand speed, and bigger power. If he can stuff take downs put the pressure on Narimani and make it a war he could pull it off.
I think this is an interesting fight. It’s hard to know what kind of game plan Narimani will come with here after all the opponent changes he has had, and this is not an easy fight. I would assume he would want to play it safe and just grind out a decision with top control. That is also what I would prefer him to do if I am rostering him on DraftKings. I think there is potential for close to 10 takedowns in this matchup for Nad if he tries to bully and wear down Dos Santos for 3 rounds. If Dos Santos can get up, I think Nad has the cardio to be able to chain wrestle for 15-minutes, and that is what we like in DraftKings. I also think Dos Santos is a dangerous fighter and has finishing potential, so I am interested in both guys here for GPPs. I do think Nad is the better play, and I do expect him to win a decision. The worry is that he doesn’t go for takedowns as much as we would like and wins more of a striking based decision, which I don’t think he would pay off his $9.1k salary in. We also have to worry about the finish from Dos Santos, so that is why I like him as a hedge. Narimani is one of the favorites I like to target on this card, so I want a few hedge LUs in case Dos Santos gets a finish at $7.1k at lower ownership.
On DraftKings, this is one of the better fights to target in GPP’s, in my opinion. I do think Narimani is a solid fighter, and he should be the better guy in this fight. He is my preferred play for the wrestling potential. There are a lot of other favorites who have more finishing potential than Nad, but I think if all fights lasted 15-minutes, Nad would have one of the highest ceilings on the card with the takedown and advance points we could see from him. I want to be overweight to Narimani here, so I would want over 35% of him in my lineups, and I don’t hate him in cash games either. Since I am going to be overweight on Narimani, but I am worried a bit about him getting finished, I think a couple Dos Santos LUs make sense in GPPs. I don’t see him getting much ownership this weekend and he is an experienced and dangerous fighter. I think if this fight wasn’t on such short notice then he would stand more of a chance here, but I wouldn’t want to fade him completely if I was mass multi entering.
Winner- Nad Narimani via Unanimous Decision
Jesus Pinedo $8,500 vs Devin Powell $7,700
Jesus Pinedo (-200) has a 15-4-1 record and will be making his UFC debut in this fight. This fight was supposed to be Claudio Puelles vs Devin Powell, but Puelles has pulled out, and his been replaced by his teammate Jesus Pinedo. Pinedo is normally a 145er, but he is taking this fight at 155. He is only 22 years old but is very experienced with 20 pro fights since he was 18 years old. He is extremely aggressive, and a very tall and long striker. He has very good in and out movement, he will paw out with his jab to gauge distance, and he has a nasty left hook and straight right hand. He has nasty kicks. He will throw a snappy front kick to the body, and hard round kicks to the body and head. He is very fast with his kicks and they are powerful. In the pocket hev gets wild and will just start to brawl and throw straight punches and hooks. It leaves him open to be hit and knocked out, but also makes him very dangerous. He is at his best when he can get his movement going and start making his opponent fight moving backwards while staying at his range. He is going to have a massive speed advantage over Powell and should bully him on the feet with forward pressure. He has strong knees and elbows in close range, and he is always looking to finish the fight in all ranges. He has 7 KO/TKO finishes, but like I said his open style leaves him vulnerable to being finished himself, and he has been KO/TKO’d twice. He is young at only 22 years old, and still has a good chin, while being very calm and experienced in wars now. When he has fighters hurt he swarms, and if he hurts Powell on the feet I see him finishing him most likely.
Pinedo is a solid grappler as well. He is strong in the clinch and has nasty knees to the body and the head along with elbows. He finishes opponents in the clinch, and his long frame makes him very dangerous there. He will occasionally shoot for doubles and singles against the cage, and he has nice throws in the clinch, but he usually prefers to strike. His take down defense is strong, and he has a good sprawl, and will throw big elbows, or get on top himself. On top he is devastating with ground & pound and relentless. He will rain down big punches and elbows, and he has nice submissions as well. He has a good arm bar from mount, and he will transition it into a triangle, and finish the fight. He has a nasty guillotine and can finish it from standing position. This kid is very dangerous, and he has potential to make waves in the UFC. He is training at a solid gym which has produced a few UFC fighters, and with steady improvements Pinedo could potentially be a top 15 fighter. Pinedo is going to want to keep this fight standing and walk down Powell. He is going to be the faster fighter with more power, and he If can keep Powell backing up I think he could finish him with strikes. Pinedo does sometimes get a bit fatigued, but those are in stand-up wars, and I’m not sure if Powell is equipped to give him one of those. Pinedo has 9 first round finishes, and I see him looking to make it 10 on Saturday night.
Devin Powell (+170) has a 9-3 record and is 1-2 in the UFC. He is a tough guy fighting out of Lauzons MMA. He isn’t a great striker, and his hands are not good. He doesn’t have faith in his boxing, and due to that he likes to stay at kicking range. When fighters close distance he looks uncomfortable, he will wing hooks, but he ducks his head, and stands flat footed just covering up. He will throw the occasional upper cut. He prefers to stay at kicking range and throw leg and body kicks. He has a strong body kick and was able to finish the fight with it in his last fight. He will throw the occasional side kick to the body, and face as well. He backs up and gives the center of the cage up way too easily allowing fighters to jam his kicks and land punishment. He isn’t a great athlete, and his speed is not at the same level of Pinedo. Powell does have a great chin and can take a lot of punishment. Powell will wing over hands, and get wild to close the distance, fighting until the bitter end. Powell does not possess big power with only 3 KO/TKOs in his career. He has a great chin and has never been finished.
He isn’t much of a wrestler, but he does attempt take downs from time to time. He will try to land reactive double legs or shoot a single drive his opponents to the cage and shoot a double or get a body lock. On top he doesn’t have the greatest top control, but he will attack with front chokes, and guillotines. In the clinch he isn’t very strong and was bullied for 3 rounds unable to get off the cage against Drakkar Klose. He does have some decent knees to the body, and elbows to the head in the clinch. He doesn’t have great take down defense, but he is tricky off his back, and it’s probably his best chance to win this fight. He will throw up triangle chokes and try to lock up kimuras. He can be controlled, and Darrell Horcher was able to rack up a lot of top control time against him in their match. Powell has great cardio, that along with his durability, are probably the most impressive things about him. Powell needs to try to get this fight to the ground. On the feet he is going to be severally out gunned, and he doesn’t want to play a kicking game with Pinedo. Pinedo has shown pretty solid cardio of late, but he has tired in the past and Powell should look to take this fight into the later rounds and finish late.
Pinedo is a very young kid and he already has 20 pro fights. He has looked pretty solid in his finishes as well and looks like he has some solid potential. Powell on the other hand, has already had 3 UFC fights and he does not look like he belongs in the organization. I think he has the perfect matchup in his last fight to get a UFC victory, but I don’t see him getting another win and I wouldn’t be shocked if Pinedo ended Powell’s UFC career. I think Pinedo is going to be the much better fighter on the feet and I think on the ground he will be fine as well. He should be the smaller guy in this matchup since he is fighting up a weightclass, but Powell is a great first fight for him. Or anybody for that matter. Powell is hard to finish so I think his path to victory would be to take a beating and tire Pinedo out and try to finish him late. I just don’t see that happening. I think Pinedo is going to beat up Powell on the feet and I think he could get a finish here. We haven’t seen Powell get finished yet, but I think Pinedo has a chance at a TKO here. Pinedo ITD is currently +155 but I think there is value there and that bet could be worth a stab. I see Pinedo teeing off on Powell against the cage and getting a stoppage from the ref. I think it would be round 1 or 2, and then if the fight does hit round 3 then maybe we would have a sweat.
On DraftKings, Pinedo is my preferred play and I have zero interest in Powell here. I think Powell is one of the worst fighters on the roster and this looks like a setup fight for this young kid. I do think Pinedo is in play for all formats and he is one of the favorites I want to be sure to be overweight on in GPPs. I am not sure what his ownership will look like, so I would want over 30% myself, and I think closer to 50% is fine at his $8.5k price tag. If he can finish this fight in the 1st round I think that puts him on the winning LU at that salary and I want a good amount of exposure for that reason. Powell will be a full fade for me, but I think the longer this fight goes the more it will shift into his favor. I just don’t see him winning round 1 or 2, so I think Powell would need a 3rd round finish to get a W here. I am just not willing to invest in that, personally.
Winner- Jesus Pinedo via 1st round (T)KO
Laureano Staropoli $8,200 vs Hector Aldana $8,000
Laureano Staropoli (+105) has a 7-1 record and will be making his UFC debut in this matchup. I really struggled to find much footage of Laureano Staropoli, but I was able to find a semi recent fight where he won via first round KO. I was not very impressed with what I saw. He does have good hand speed, and leg kicks. He likes to throw a lead hook, and jabs to the body and head. He doesn’t move his head and can get hit with big shots. He tries to use lateral movement and move but he doesn’t have fast feet and fighters are able to cut him off. He does do a great job of attacking the body and will throw big hooks and kicks to the body. He has a decent straight right hand, and right hook and is very aggressive closing the distance with punches. He likes to throw wide hooks that close a lot of distance, but fighters are able to duck under and get takedowns. He is hittable, and seems to have a good chin, but his style will eventually get him knocked out if not tightened up. He will throw back if opponents blitz him, and he has good power in his right hand. When he hurts fighters, he smells blood and goes for the kill. He has good power and has finished 5 fights by KO/TKO. He has not fought a high level of opponent, and the combined record of the fighters he’s defeated wins are 10-13. He has been knocked out one time.
He seems to have poor clinch technique and takedown defense. He was taken down in the clinch in the fight I saw multiple times and allowed his opponent to get inside and clinch up on him way too easily. He was able to get his back to the cage and get back up to his feet, but that was against a 1-2 fighter. He does have two submissions, and if he hurts his opponent, will get on top and go for the finish. He has nasty ground & pound when he has a fighter hurt and can knock fighter’s unconscious. He has never been out of the second round in MMA, and this is a massive step up in competition. Staropoli needs to keep this fight on the feet and try to make it a war. He attacks the body well with punches and kicks, and if he can attack heavy to the body and get Hector to drop his hands he can land the knockout punch to the head. He isn’t very active and hasn’t fought in 2018. He has only fought 1 time per year the last three years, and most likely this will be his only fight this year as well. I don’t know how his cardio is, but he will be fighting at home in his UFC debut so I’m sure he will be ready to go.
Hector Aldana (-125) has a 4-1 record and he is 0-1 in the UFC. He returned from a 3-year layoff in his last fight and lost by TKO in round 2. Aldana is a prototypical Mexican fighter. He is a boxer who stays in his opponent’s face, keeps the pace, and goes to war. He has big power and will throw a nice crisp jab followed by a straight and has good hooks as well. He throws in combination well and changes up his target from body head. He will attack the body with hooks too and has good accuracy with big power. He has very heavy leg kicks and can damage your leg with just 1 or 2 kicks. He has good head movement and does a good job of getting his head off of the center line after he throws combinations. He can get too overaggressive and put himself in bad positions or off balance. When he has a fighter hurt or backing up, he will swarm and go for the kill. He has 2 KO/TKOs, he showed a decent chin over his career, but he was finished for the first time in his last fight via TKO.
He doesn’t have good takedown defense or Jiu-Jitsu and that will be an issue if he continues to fight in the UFC, but not in this fight I don’t think. In the clinch, he can be controlled and pushed against the cage. Off his back he seems lost, and he doesn’t have good get ups or an active bottom game. He got choked out very quickly against Enrique Marin. Aldana has one submission and been submitted one time. He won’t go for many takedowns himself and doesn’t have much of a top game to speak of. He did catch kicks and get a couple trip takedowns in his last fight, but he got up instead of staying in top position. He has good cardio, fighting out of Mexico where the altitude is very high. Aldana also hasn’t fought great competition, but he has fought more experienced fighters than Staropoli. This is most likely going to be a stand-up war, and I think it’s a fairly close match. I would say Staropoli has the bigger punching power, but Aldana has the harder kicks. I think Aldana has to get off to a quick start and try to blitz Staropoli early. Staropoli seems to start slow and then pick up as the fight continues, and if Aldana can come strong out of the shoot he can maybe get Staropoli out early or hurt his leg with kicks.
This is a fight I really have no interest in. Watching it or investing in it. I think the only reason this is on the card is because Staropoli is from Argentina and they needed another low-level fighter to match up with him. I have not been impressed with either guy from what I have seen, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable putting my money on either guy, so I won’t have much exposure at all to this fight. The line opened with Staropoli as a heavy favorite (-320) and he has been bet down to where he is now the underdog. I think that might have gone a little too far because I don’t know how everybody can be very confident in Aldana either. With everyone and their mother picking Aldana in this spot, it makes me want to go the other way and take the hometown guy instead. All of those big casinos in Vegas weren’t built from everybody being right, so let’s just fade them and take Staropoli here. I think he is the more likely fighter to get a finish in this fight, and that is why he is going to be my pick to win. He has never been to a decision in his career, and if I am going to invest in either guy in DK I would rather it be somebody like that.
Staropoli is my preferred play in this spot, but it is a fight I would look to fade if I can. It is a nice salary point with it being the mid-range fight of the week, so if I was going to use either guy it would be Staropoli. I think Aldana could end up being popular in DK with everybody betting him this week, and if we can get Staropoli at very low ownership, then it makes me somewhat interested in him. I would prefer him more in deeper tournaments like the one with $15k up top, but other than that I would look to fade this fight and hope that it is a low scoring striking match. The line for FDGTD is currently -250, so Vegas does think this fight will finish. That is what makes me nervous about the fade, so if you are confident in either guy here I think they are for sure in play. I just am not confident in either guy and that is why I won’t have much exposure. I am going to full fade Aldana here and I might take a few shots on the hometown guy if anything.
Winner- Laureno Staropoli via Split Decision
Humnerto Bandenay $8,900 vs Austin Arnett $7,300
Humberto Bandenay (-260) has a 14-5-1 record and he is 1-1 in the UFC. He is a young impressive prospect. He is extremely fast and very dynamic with his punches and kicks. He has a nasty straight left hand and a solid right jab; his hands are super-fast. He has a nasty right body kick and will go high with it and it is one of the fastest body kicks I have ever seen. His inside leg kick is very heavy too. He does a good job of controlling distance and being able to slide out of the way of shots and coming back with his own. He has been in some wars in Peru and has taken big shots and been able to eat them and battle back. He has been very tired and able to find a way to get a victory. He had a nasty head kick knockout against Martin Bravo. He will crash the distance with long straight punching combinations and has solid power in his left hand. He is super young and has been training at a great gym team Oyama and should be getting a lot better. He has all the striking skills to be a beast in the division. He can get tired and not move his feet enough and get tagged with shots against the cage. He has a good chin and can stay calm and does a good job of landing hard shots when opponents come at him aggressively. He got knocked out by a slam in his last fight and is returning in 5 Months so hopefully he has fully recovered. He has 5 KO/TKOs himself and has been finished by KO just one time via slam.
He has questionable takedown defense, but he is not bad off his back. He has good triangles and a fast arm bar. He has decent takedowns himself and will explode on a double leg. On top he is aggressive with ground and pound. He is active with submissions on top and he will win the fight. He has a strong rear naked choke. He has 6 submissions himself, but he can be submitted and has been submitted 4 times. He has been finished in all 5 of his losses and has only been to 3 decisions in his career where he is 3-0.
Austin Arnett (+220) has a 15-5 record and he is 0-2 in the UFC. Arnett is a karate fighter. He is a point fighter and is extremely fast in and out and has a great straight right hand. He has a nice jab and will throw long combos if he gets his opponents against the cage. He has a good front kick to the body and will throw question mark kicks and head kicks. He is very accurate, but not extremely powerful. He has a problem of doing too much sitting and waiting on his opponents. He lets people walk him down and get off first and goes into defensive mode. He has a good chin and is a tough durable guy. He has gotten dropped with body shots in fights. He has 5 KO/TKOs, but he doesn’t have great power.
He has poor takedown defense because he likes to attack with a guillotine instead of fighting the takedown. He doesn’t have much off his back and gets cut with huge elbows. He got cut in his last two fights. He has good cardio and good overall base. If he learned how to throw more and not get walked down, he could be dangerous. He has gotten the guillotine a few times in his career. He has 6 submissions and has been submitted 1 time himself. I think Arnett needs to make a stand here. He is lucky to get another UFC shot, and he needs to not let Bandenay back him up and be so passive. He needs throw his shots, and flow out there with his karate, and try to land a clean shot or win a decision.
I think this is going to be a striking battle and I don’t see either guy looking to shoot for takedowns unless they get hurt on the feet. I am not real impressed with either guy, but I think Humberto is the more dangerous fighter of the two, and that is why I am going to pick him to win. I think he will be the one throwing the harder strikes at a faster pace, and I think that will get him the decision win if he isn’t able to get the knockout. Both guys have 6 submission wins on their record, so I could be wrong and maybe takedowns will be in the game plan for these guys, but I don’t see it. The line for FDGTD is -245, but I think that might be a bit high. I think if there is a finish in this fight then it will be Bandenay getting his hand raised. He does throw heavy shots so a (T)KO is in play, but I see him winning a striking battle on the judges’ cards here.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Bandenay. My issue with him is that he is $8.9k and I think we will have to get a finish for him to end up on the winning LU at that salary. Since I see this going all 3-rounds, I don’t want to be heavily invested in him, but his ITD line is -113 and that is what is keeping him in my player pool. I really have no interest in Arnett here. He will be a full fade for me, and I think if you are making 10 or less LUs then you can fade him as well. I think the FDGTD line is so high because both of Humberto’s UFC fights were over in about 30-seconds, so recency bias is making people think that he is going to kill or be killed in this fight as well. I will have exposure to him in this fight, but I am guessing I will be underweight to the field. I haven’t decided how many LUs I will be making, but if I was making 10 I think he would only make 2-3 of them, max.
Winner- Humberto Bandenay via Unanimous Decision
Alexandre Pantoja $9,300 vs Ulka Sasaki $6,900
Alexandre Pantoja (-360) has a 19-3 record and he is 3-1 in the UFC. Pantoja is a solid striker, he attacks with hand combinations and solid leg kicks and body kicks. He has a nice jab and will follow with the right hand down the pipe. He has nice hooks to the body, and he will throw a right hook to the body left hook to the head combination. When he gets opponents backs against the cage he will swarm with shots to the body and head. He has a nasty step in knee to the head. He has a solid chin and will walk through shots and tell you about it. His pressure and pace are elite, and he melts fighters over the three rounds. He has good power for a 125er, and he has 6 KO/TKOs. He has never been finished and looked awesome in his last fight after moving his camp to ATT.
Pantoja is a great grappler with superb BJJ. He is very strong in the clinch, and when he backs fighters against the cage he will grab the Muay Thai plum and land hard knees to the head and body. He will get a single collar position against the cage and throw nasty elbows and knees to the body. He will go for body lock take downs in the clinch and shoot some reactive shots if he has an advantage on the mat. On top he is very good, he has great guard passing and moves into dominant positions quickly. He loves to take the back where he has a great body triangle and control. He has a great rear naked choke with 6 himself. He has never been submitted and his Jiu-Jitsu is elite. He has great takedown defense and does a great job of turning the position around into a dominant one for himself. I see Pantoja trying to close the distance, land hard leg kicks and big combinations while looking for the takedown. Sasaki has been submitted with rear naked choke against Formiga and submitted with a neck crank earlier in his career.
Ulka Sasaki (+300) has a record of 21-5-2 and he is 4-4 in the UFC. Sasaki had a nice performance and rear naked choke victory in his last match. This is his second full camp at Serra-Longo, and he has the intangibles to improve. He is a very tall flyweight at 5’10 with a 4-inch reach advantage against Pantoja. He has alternated wins and losses so far in his UFC career, and is coming off a win so he is hoping to reverse that trend this time out. Sasaki has a nice jab, and a good left hook. He will throw a long right hook, and a straight right hand. He throws a lot of kicks and knees, such as front and round kicks to the body. He has good leg kicks, and he has nice step in knees to the body. He has a strong chin, and he keeps heavy pressure walking through shots. He doesn’t have great movement and stands flat footed in front of you without moving his head. He can be hit clean with punches, and it makes him easy to get taken down. He isn’t a big power striker and relies more on volume. He only has 2 KO/TKOs in his career. He has only been finished one time by TKO in his career.
Sasaki is an opportunistic grappler with a dangerous submission game. Unfortunately, the UFC has given him some of the best ground specialists in the sport over his career, and he has shown he is not on that level. He was dominated by Wilson Reis, and quickly submitted by Jussier Formiga. He immediately went for a single leg in his last fight, before switching to a double against the cage and getting the take down. He has good reactive shots and can get easy takedowns. He is relentless with his efforts to get the fight to the ground at times and will transition from takedown to takedown until he gets fighters down. On top he is good, he has good control, and great guard passing ability. He doesn’t throw much ground & pound, instead liking to get to side control, and then mount forcing opponents to give the back where he has great control. He will get posture and throw hammer fists or elbows from mount to get opponents to give the back. He has good rear naked chokes, and 11 in his career. He doesn’t have great defensive wrestling, and fighters are able to get in on his legs and get double legs pretty easily. Off his back he isn’t that great, and he doesn’t have a very dangerous bottom game. He does do a good job of defending the rear naked choke and turning in and ending up on top in full guard. He has good cardio and can go for all 3 rounds. He has good submission defense, and only been submitted two times. I think Sasaki will try to wrestle in this matchup again. Pantoja is too clean with his counter punching for a fighter who is flat footed with poor head movement, and Sasaki will probably want to try to close the distance and get take downs. If he can take down Pantoja, he can work his top game.
This is a fun fight. These guys have combined for 50 professional fights and now the UFC is scrapping the weight class. It will be interesting to see if they keep either guy at 135 after this fight, but a win will definitely help their case. I like Pantoja a good bit in this fight. I think he is the better striker and he lands sig strikes at double the rate Sasaki does. I also think he can keep this fight standing if he wants to and cruise to an easy striking victory. I don’t think this fight is very close on the feet, but on the ground, I think is where it could be fun. That is also the path to victory for Sasaki if he can get it to the ground, but both guys are great grapplers. Sasaki is going to need to get this fight to the ground and keep top control to get a win, I think. I don’t see him submitting a guy like Pantoja, but if he can consistently land takedowns then he has a path to victory as the cheapest guy on the card. He does land 3.14 takedowns per 15-minutes, but he has a 43% takedown accuracy and Pantoja has a 60% takedown defense rate, so it will be interesting to see if he can get takedowns. I think Pantoja has a better chance of getting takedowns in this fight though with his 60% takedown accuracy and Sasaki’s 37% defense, and I don’t think he will be in much danger if he is in Sasaki’s guard. I just think Pantoja will be the better fighter everywhere and I think his high betting line is warranted.
On DraftKings, Pantoja is my preferred fighter. I think $9.3k is a high asking price for him, but I do like him to get a win and if I had to pick one fighter who I am most confident in getting a win, it would be Pantoja. I just think we will need a finish at that salary and I am not sure that will happen. His ITD line is currently +125, and I think that is a bit generous. I think a decision win is actually the most likely path to victory from him here, and if that is the case he is going to need to rack up a lot of takedown and advance points to reach value. I don’t have much interest in Sasaki in GPPs, but I think he is a fine cash game punt at his cheap price. Since I think this fight does go all 3-rounds I would be fine with taking 20-30 points in a loss from him as long as you like the rest of your team. Overall, I will be underweight to this fight in GPPs, but Pantoja will be the one to make my player pool if I end up using this fight.
Winner – Alexandre Pantoja via Unanimous Decision
Michel Prazeres $8,600 vs Bartosz Fabinski $7,600
Michel Prazeres (-190) has a 25-2 record and he is 9-2 in the UFC. Prazeres has improved his striking and now has solid hands, he has power in his hooks, and will throw in combination and also throw some body and leg kicks as well. He is explosive and does a good job of countering opponent’s punches with hooks and overhands over the top. He has good leg kicks and will throw them inside and outside. He does a fantastic job of disguising his overhands with level changes, also helping his takedown game later on. He will throw a left hook right hand combination, and a good counter overhand right. He has good forward pressure, and needs to walk Fabinski down, and make sure he is not the one with his back against the cage. He is going to be the faster more explosive fighter in this match and is riding a wave of momentum with 7 consecutive wins. He isn’t a knockout threat with only 1 TKO in his 27-fight career. He is a tough dude with a solid chin, and never has been finished.
Prazeres is a great grappler, and Jiu-Jitsu black belt. He does a great job of using punches to set up his takedowns. He will throw a big right hook or left hook, and duck under for a single leg. He also will fake the punch and shoot a blast double leg. He will shoot a single and lift his opponent to upset his balance, and then take their back from standing position where he’s very good at slamming his opponents to the mat. On top, Prazeres is very active, he has smooth passing and will move from half guard to side control on one side, to side control all the way on the other side looking for the arm triangle and north south choke setups. He has a strong mount and will take the back and get rear naked chokes. He has good control, and fighters struggle to get up from under him. He fought a huge WW In Prazeres, and he proved he could take him down. He has strong takedown defense, and he will jump for guillotines and has an active bottom game. He will use butterfly hooks to set up triangles, and he is also hard to keep down. Prazeres has really improved his cardio over the years, and he can go all three rounds. He is a submission threat with 10 career submissions. He has never been submitted, and I doubt that changes here.
Bartosz Fabinski (+165) has a 14-2 record and he is 3-0 in the UFC. Bartosz Fabinski is a specialist. His striking on the feet, is really nonexistent, and everything he throws is to close the distance. He doesn’t have good striking at all at distance. He is very wide with his punches in space, throws arm punches and doesn’t have great power keeping his chin high and head in same place. He will throw a decent overhand right to crash into the clinch. He throws no kicks, and if he’s forced to strike with an opponent I see him gassing out. He has 8 TKOs, but those are from ground & pound. He has a good chin, and never has been finished via strikes.
Fabinski’s is a tremendous grappler. He is super aggressive with his wrestling and closes distance immediately every time he’s on the feet. Fabinski is a grinder, his game is to close the distance, get in the clinch, get the double leg and gain control on top. He is very strong and does a good job of playing to his strengths, always closing the distance and going for the takedowns. He doesn’t have great takedowns in space he likes to go for upper body clinches and then double legs against the cage. He will throw a straight right hand and crash into the clinch. He gets caught in guillotines a lot when he goes for double legs. He is smart with his guillotine defense and will grapevine the legs and try to move into mount or try to move immediately into side control. On top he is very methodical and works slowly. He can struggle to pass opponents guards at times, and just throw short punches and elbows. He does like to move to half guard, where he will get more aggressive with ground & pound posturing up and landing punches and elbows. He has great control, and when he takes fighters down even if they stand back up he does a good job of staying connected and taking opponents down again. Fabinski did get swept by Hector Urbina, but Urbina was not able to control him on the ground. Fabinski also was controlled against the cage a bit by Garreth McLellen. He isn’t a submission threat and has never had one in his career. He has only been submitted one time. Fabinski’s game plan is not a secret to anyone at this point. He will be looking to close the distance and take Prazeres down. Prazeres is very hard to hold down, and even Kevin Lee was not able to control him on his back. Fabinski is going to be the bigger fighter, and maybe he can wear Prazeres out with his size and physicality.
This is a fight between two guys who love to grapple. Prazeres averages 4.15 takedowns per 15-minutes and Fabinski averages 7.33 takedowns per 15-minutes. I think this fight will come down to Prazeres’ ability to stop Fabinski’s takedowns or get on top himself. He is going to be the smaller guy here, but he is a tank. Fabinski does not want to stand though and his gameplan will be to move forward and try to get the takedown and keep top control. If he is able to do that, he can pull off the upset here and even score highly in a decision. On DraftKings, he has never scored less than 100-points and he has 22 takedowns and 24 advances in his 3 UFC fights. It is possible he can do that again here, but he hasn’t faced a guy who can grapple like Prazeres yet. It is going to be interesting to see if he can get the takedowns but if he can’t then he is going to lose this fight. Prazeres is the better fighter here and he could end up getting takedowns himself, and if he can get takedowns he could even lock up a submission.
On DraftKings, I am going to side with Fabinski as my preferred fighter. I am even going to pick him to win because I don’t like a lot of underdogs this week and he has a legit path to victory with his takedown ability. He is one of my favorite underdogs of the week and I love his 100-point upside at $7.6k. However, Prazeres is not a bad play himself. There is a decent chance he can keep this fight on the feet and his ITD line is +328 compared to Fabinski’s +1050, so if there is a finish it is likely coming from Tractor Prazeres. He loves going for takedowns himself and if he can get them I think Fabinski could be in trouble and Tractor wouldn’t have anything to worry about with Fabinski on his back. I will be higher exposed to Fabinski though and I think he is in play in all formats. I’m not sure if he will make my cash LU or not, but I do want to be overweight on GPPs. Fabinski could be popular though so I think over ~33% is a safe number to be overweight. It will be interesting to see how it plays out, but I will be rooting for takedown city from Fabinski.
Winner – Bartosz Fabinski via Unanimous Decision
Poliana Botelho $8,300 vs Cynthia Calvillo $7,900
Poliana Botelho (-155) has a 7-1 record and she is 2-0 in the UFC. Botelho is a good fighter who is rapidly improving. Botelho is very big for the weight class, and a scary striker. She has massive power and showed that with a finish in less than 1 minute against Syuri Kondo. Botelho has a wide stance and likes to walk her opponents down and make the octagon small. She is a great kicker, and her left body kick is viscous. She will throw spinning back kicks to the body, as well as front kicks. When she lands all her opponents seem to really react to it, and back off. She will use her kicks to close the distance, and when she gets in punching range will unload with straight punching combinations with bad intentions. She will throw wild over hands and looping hooks, and uppercuts. She is much more technical with her kicks than her punches, but when she gets opponents backed against the cage and can unload with combos she is fast, powerful and can end the fight. She does like to brawl, and she can eat clean shots to try to fire back. She has a good chin, and I have seen her persevere through getting dropped badly, to finish in round 5. She is going to be a problem for almost everyone she fights at range and is one of the most dangerous strikers in the division. She has 6 KO/TKOs in 7 wins and has never been finished herself.
She isn’t an offensive grappler, and you will not see her initiate clinch or grappling scenarios, especially not in this match. She previously had a very wide stance, and a lot of weight on her front leg. fighters were able to grab single legs, or just close the distance and get an upper body clinch because she was stationary. Pearl Gonzalez was able to get her to the fence. Botelho was not able to get her back off the fence, but she did land elbows and knees in that position while denying all the takedowns. Botelho has a good sprawl in space and does a good job of disengaging and returning back to the center of the octagon. She is a blue belt in BJJ and has done some competitions, so I am sure she is decent on the ground, but I haven’t seen it. She has tremendous cardio and is dangerous at all times. Her body shots tend to slow fighters down over time, and she’s usually the fresher fighter in the later rounds. Botelho has no submissions and has never been submitted. Botelho is going to want to come out be aggressive with her kicking game, while stuffing the shots of Calvillo and keeping it on the feet. On the feet I don’t see Calvillo being much of a threat, and if Botelho can keep this standing it’s her fight to lose.
Cynthia Calvillo (+135) has a 6-1 record and she is 3-1 in the UFC. Calvillo was pinned by Dana White as a future UFC star, but things haven’t quite panned out. She not only lost her last bout to Carla Esparza, but she was popped by USADA and suspended 9 months. The suspension was for weed, but nonetheless it quelled her hype a bit more. She is now returning and trying to re announce herself with a big win here. Calvillo has good movement and tries to work behind a jab and straight right hand. She does a decent job of countering with her right hand and moving her head off center line. She has a nice check left hook in the pocket. She will throw occasional leg kicks, but she is not much of a kicker. She tends to get flat footed when she tries to throw combinations, and will stand right in front of opponents, and get hit. She cannot do that with a striker like Botelho who hits much harder than any girl she has ever faced. Calvillo’s hand speed is a tad slow, and she will be at a speed disadvantage on the feet here. She also doesn’t possess big power, and I struggle to see her keeping Botelho honest with her punching power. She is a tough girl, and has a good chin, but she has fought almost exclusively grapplers in her career. She does have Two TKOs in her career and has never been finished.
She is a great BJJ practitioner, and very dangerous on the ground. She is amazing in scrambles, and her flexibility makes her able to end up in dominant positions. She isn’t a great wrestler, or even a very active seeker of the takedown, but she definitely will need to be in this matchup. She did have a nice duck under off an Esparza overhand and was able to get a nice double leg takedown. She will try to get the single collar tie, and then shoot takedowns from there, but overall, she isn’t a great wrestler. She is going to be the smaller girl here, and I don’t think she will want to try to go strength for strength with Botelho in the clinch in this fight and hasn’t done that in previous bouts. On top she is strong, but if you just be safe she seems to not be extremely active. She likes to use small ground and pound, and make you make a move where she can scramble to dominant position. Her takedown defense is not great, but off her back is where she is most dangerous. She has very dexterous legs, and she’s able to use them to offset balance and create scrambles, where she can take the back, or lock in a choke. She has great back takes, showing that with a slick submission over Amanda Cooper. She also has nice triangles and armbars and works quickly on the mat for the submission. She has two rear naked chokes in her career. She has good cardio and can go hard for three rounds. I see Calvillo using a ton of movement, trying to evade and stay safe on the feet, and just try to find a moment to duck under and take Botelho to the mat. I don’t think she will want anything to do with the striking, and if she can’t get it to the mat she will be in danger of being finished. If she can get it down she needs to try to keep position, while looking for a finish and not let Botelho back to her feet.
This is your classic striker vs grappler matchup. Whoever can work their game plan will win this fight. Botelho is going to look to strike and avoid takedowns. If she can do that then she will piece Calvillo up easily in the striking department and possibly finish with an ITD line of +195. If Calvillo can go out there and get takedowns, then she is going to win with either a submission or more likely a grappling heavy decision win. I think the mismatch on the feet is going to be bigger for Botelho than the grappling edge will be for Calvillo here. I think Botelho has a solid get-up game and I don’t see Calvillo keeping her on the ground for the majority of this fight. I think she will be forced to strike and I think Botelho has some of the best striking in the division. I think we could see a back and forth fight where both fighters have success throughout the fight, and that could really take away from the points the winner will receive. I don’t think Botelho scores highly on DK if she doesn’t finish this fight, but I do think she gets the win here. If Calvillo can get the win then I do think she could score highly, so I have interest in her on DK for that reason.
On DraftKings, this has been a fight I have been avoiding. I think both fighters are in play for reasons I just mentioned, but I do have Botelho winning the fight and if she wins a decision I don’t see her having any 100-point upside because she will not be going for takedowns and she will likely have spent a decent time defending them and not scoring points. Calvillo would really be my preferred play for the grappling ceiling she will bring to the table. The issue for me with rostering her is that I don’t think she wins. I will likely have a small amount of exposure to both fighters here but underweight to the fight as a whole.
Winner – Poliana Botelho via Unanimous Decision
Marlon Vera $9,200 vs Guido Cannetti $7,000
Marlon Vera (-310) has an 11-5-1 record and he is 5-4 in the UFC. Vera picked up a much-needed victory in his last fight after dropping back to back contests. He throws a nice straight left hand and jab and uses good footwork to not get pushed back against the cage. His hands are a bit weak, and if his opponents can work into the pocket against him they can make him fight off his back foot and be less effective. He can become too passive in fights and not go for it. He throws very good left kicks to the body and head and is fast with them. He is dangerous with the left high kick and can hurt you with it and he is good at throwing inside calf kicks as well as oblique kicks to the knees. He throws nice knees to the head and times them well on his opponent’s takedown attempts. He has great cardio and will go for it like he did in Pickett fight if he’s down 2-0 and hunt for kill. Fighters that give him the most trouble are fighters who walk him down get inside and jam his kicks. This fight will be more of a range striking match in my opinion and will give Marlon the opportunity to show off his striking skills a bit more. He has 4 KO/TKOs including one in his last fight. He has a great chin and is very tough never being finished in his career.
He is a very good Jiu-Jitsu player, and opportunistic submission artist. He is a decent wrestler and likes to use a body lock into a double leg takedown. He isn’t an active seeker of the takedown and will not shoot takedowns often. He has solid takedown defense against the cage and is dangerous with submissions. He will attack with slick guillotines, and kimuras. He is very good at capitalizing on small openings and finishing the fight on the ground. Off of his back he has a solid guard, he has nice elbows and will attack with armbars and triangles. Vera should try to walk forward and make Cannetti fight going backwards. I think Vera can possibly stun and submit Cannetti, if he is aggressive.
Guido Cannetti (+255) is 8-3 with a UFC record of 2-2. He has looked very quick recently and does a good job of using good in and out footwork fakes and feints and not being an easy target to hit. He has good kicks. He will throw nice head kicks and front kicks to the body. He has very heavy kicks and his inside leg kicks are very hard. He can load up on his kicks and be countered if his opponent can time it. He has a nice left straight and will attack with a left straight right hook combo. He is going to be the much faster guy. He was attacking with some devastating shots such as a spinning hook kick. He was doing a great job of landing the left straight or kicks and just keeping his distance and pulling his opponents into his shots. He has a decent uppercut. He will stick out a double jab. He can get too aggressive and get a bit sloppy. He can run forward and either get clipped and finished or taken down. He also at times will throw spinning kicks when he doesn’t have enough space, get knocked off balance and end up in bad positions on the ground. He does have a good chin and is very dangerous especially in round 1. He has 3 KO/TKOs in 8 wins. He has been knocked out one time by Alejandro Perez.
Cannetti isn’t a great grappler, but he is improving and not bad. He has a good double leg shot, and he does a good job of landing hard knees in the clinch. He also will throw shots off the break very effectively and catch opponents in short range. He has good initial take down defense, he is very good at sprawling digging under hooks, and either bulling fighters over and ending up on top or disengaging. If fighters can make him chain wrestle, that’s where he is deficient and can be taken down. He isn’t good off his back and doesn’t have much activity. He just tries to control posture and wait for the ref to stand it up. He has been submitted a couple times in the past and tapped quickly. He did show some resolve in his last match getting out of a deep guillotine and arm bar. Cannetti has been submitted 3 times and has 3 submissions himself. Cannetti needs to avoid going to the mat in this match and keep this fight at range on the feet. He probably will be the faster more explosive fighter, and if he can keep Vera at kicking range he will have his most success.
I think this is a pretty one-sided fight and the odds would agree. I see Vera being the better fighter everywhere here. Cannetti could have his moments on the feet, but I think Vera will be the one landing the harder shots and landing them at a higher pace. I don’t think Vera gets a finish on the feet though if this does stay standing and this fight is in Argentina where Cannetti is from. I think on the ground is where Vera is going to be the most dangerous in this fight. I think if he can get takedowns then Cannetti is going to be in trouble. I also think Cannetti won’t like losing on the feet and could go for takedowns of his own. If he does, I think Vera gets the sub from the bottom. Either way, if this fight hits the ground I think Vera has a good shot of getting the submission. The issue there is that Vera only lands 0.55 takedowns per 15-minutes and he only lands them at a 28% accuracy. If Cannetti can keep this on the feet, he could maybe get a hometown nod from the judges here.
On DraftKings, Vera is really the only play I am interested in here. I don’t see Cannetti having any high upside here and if he wins a decision I don’t even know that he pays off his cheap $7k price tag. Vera at $9.2k is interesting for his finishing upside, but we will need the finish for him to hit value. I think with 1-3 LUs we can avoid Vera here at this price tag. If we are making 10 or more LUs then I think we do need a small amount of exposure to him. He has an ITD line of -120 so Vegas thinks a finish from him is the likely ending, and I think it could even be round one for over 100-points. I will have a full fade on Cannetti here and I don’t care much for this fight in cash games.
Winner – Marlon Vera via 3rd round submission
Cezar Ferreira $8,400 vs Ian Heinisch $7,800
Cezar Ferreira (-185) is a former TUF Brazil winner with a record of 13-6. He is 9-4 in the UFC and has won 5 of his last 6. Cezar Mutante is a veteran and he will be the much more experienced fighter in this matchup. He has 13 UFC fights, and Heinisch only has 12 fights total. Mutante came into the UFC a very dangerous striker with a nasty kicking game, but after getting knocked out a few times he changed his style to be much more about defense timing and movement. He times a very good straight right and will land hard body kicks. He uses a lot of movement and does a great job of not getting his back against the cage. He has very good low leg kicks, and nice snap kicks to the body. He will also throw sidekicks to the body and head. He also has capoera kicks, spinning kicks and is very athletic, but doesn’t use them often. He does an excellent job of pot shotting fighters from the outside, until he can time takedowns. He is great at controlling distance and landing his straight punches or taking down opponents when they get too close. He isn’t a big knockout threat, and only has 3 KO/TKOs in his career. He has been KO’d 4 times in his career and definitely has a weak chin. He hasn’t gotten knocked out in his last 6 fights.
Ferreira has excellent timing on double leg takedowns. Ferreira uses his takedowns in space, he doesn’t spend a lot of time in the clinch going for takedowns and that is where Heinisch has capitalized in certain fights. He has big power in his drive on his takedowns and even if he shoots a bad shot he can still usually finish it. He isn’t extremely active on top and will stay in his opponent’s guard and land punches and elbows. He has a solid arm triangle. Ferreira has solid foot sweep takedowns in the clinch and does a good job of dragging his opponents down and trying to take the back. He can get outhustled at times in the clinch and grappling exchanges, but you have to be good enough to scramble with Ferreira. He has a nice guillotine and will dive on it if he feels he can get it. He can get clipped exiting and entering the clinch and that is where Heinisch could possibly be dangerous. Ferreira has solid cardio and can use a solid game plan for all three rounds. He earned a nice submission in his last match, and is the fighter coming in with a full camp. He has 4 submissions and has never been submitted himself. I see Ferreira using the same game plan he has been using in recent fights. Movement, straight punches, kicks and well-timed takedowns. If he can get Heinisch on his back, that will be his best chance to find a finish.
Ian Heinisch (+160) has an 11-1 record and is making his UFC debut in this matchup. This fight was initially supposed to be Cezar Ferreíra vs Tom Breese, but Breese has pulled out and Ian Heinisch has stepped in. Ian Heinisch is a powerhouse, and it’s definitely still a dangerous fight for Mutante. Heinisch is coming off of 3 consecutive KO victories, and he can finish a fight with one shot. Heinisch is a very explosive and athletic fighter. He is light on his feet, and likes to bounce on the outside until he explodes in. Heinisch likes to throw kicks, such as leg kicks and body kicks. He will throw front kicks to the body and head. He has a nasty left hook, and a nasty overhand right. He does a great job of closing the distance and throwing a left hook into a double leg or faking a double leg and coming over the top with his right hand. He has massive power, and one shot can put fighters completely unconscious. He has 4 career KO/TKOs but has really found his power recently with 3 straight KOs. He has never been finished by strikes and is a rough and rugged fighter who I think you would have to put out to stop him.
He is a former division ll college wrestler, and he has an explosive double leg shot. He does a great job of setting his shots up with punches. He will stalk opponents to the cage, close the distance and shoot double and single leg shots. When he takes fighters down, he works quickly and likes to get to half guard where he will rain down heavy elbows. He can put fighter’s unconscious with elbows and is a scary individual in top position. He has good chokes and will attack with guillotines and front chokes. He also has an Americana and shoulder lock as well and is a very powerful athlete. He has 2 submissions and has been submitted one time. He has strong takedown defense, and I think he will likely be looking to use his wrestling in reverse for this match. He trains out of Factory X at elevation and cardio is not an issue. Heinisch needs to make the octagon small in this match. He needs to safely close the distance and land his right overhand and left hook and try to knock out Mutante who doesn’t have the greatest chin.
This is a fight I have gone back and forth on a few times this week. I think if it were a full camp in Heinisch then this would be a better fight, but I think he needs the finish to get a win on short notice here. I think with a short camp and not a lot of time for Cezar to prepare, his game plan should be to get takedowns and stay in top control. Cezar does not have a great chin and he knows it. He has changed his style over the years because of it, and I think playing around on the feet too long with Heinisch could get him clipped and put out. I also think Heinisch is very dangerous on top, so Cezar will need to beat him to the punch. If he can do that I think he will be the better wrestler of the two and he will be able to get in dominant positions and wear Heinisch down. I think he could get a submission win over Heinish, but I think that would likely come later in the fight after he has worn him out. My issue with Ferreira here is that he usually does not score highly on DK, and he is facing a solid fighter here with power. Cezar’s last win was the first time he has scored over 100-points and before that fight he has averaged 69.5 DK points per win, and that won’t cut it at $8.4k on a card where there could be a lot of finishes. If there is a KO in this fight on the feet, I think it will be from Heinisch and that is what is making me want to pick him to win here. We haven’t seen Cezar’s chin fail him recently, but this could be the spot if he is unable to get takedowns.
On DraftKings, Heinisch is my preferred play. I do like both guys, but Heinisch has the better chance to end up on the optimal LU with a win, so that is why I prefer him. I don’t like many underdogs this week, so the potential from Heinisch is really what I like and that could be what is going to sway my overall prediction. I am not confident in him getting a win, but he does have a clear path to 100-points and that is with a KO. I do think Ferreria is in play for GPP as well because of his wrestling potential, but I would rather move up $100 and get Pinedo, so I don’t think I will have many LUs with him for that reason.
Winner – Ian Heinisch via 2nd round (T)KO
Khalil Rountree $8,800 vs Johnny Walker $7,400
Khalil Rountree (-220) has a 7-2-1 record and he is 3-2-1 in the UFC. Rountree had an unbelievable upset victory in his last match. Knocking out a complete legend in Gohkan Saki. Rountree is incredibly powerful and explosive, and very dangerous in round 1. He changed his camp to Blackhouse MMA and looks to be happier in a better mind space. He has very big power and throws nice right straights and hooks. He has nice body kicks. He has strong leg kicks and throws them early but gets away from them late it seems. He goes for it early and is extremely aggressive. He will get in the pocket and try to push you back with powerful combos and sheer power. He holds his hands low and likes to try to bait fighters to throw so he can counter with straight a straight right hand. He has a decent jab. He is very fast and closes distance with his punching combinations very quickly. He has a good high kick, and when he hurts fighters he is a brutal finisher. If he drops fighters, he has nasty ground & pound punches and hammer fists. All his finishes are in round 1, and after that he gets tired and less dangerous. He has a good chin, but he gets very flat footed and clipped while winging slow power punches. He is going to have a big power and speed advantage early on. He is 6-0 with 6 KO/TKOs. He has a good chin and has never been finished.
Rountree is not a good grappler, but he has shown improvements over the years. He does a good job of framing when opponents close the distance and throws nasty knees and elbows. He knocked Paul Craig out with a vicious knee in that position. He has improved his takedown defense and is harder to shoot in on than previously. He will try to attack with a guillotine and he can sweep into mount with it, whereas off his back he really has nothing. He doesn’t have good get up games, but he has gotten better at defending himself on the ground. He isn’t a submission threat and has never gotten a submission. He has been submitted 2 times via rear naked choke. Rountree needs to go hard early and try to finish the fight in round one. If he can get Walker moving backwards and jam his kicks, I think he can land clean and knock him out early.
Johnny Walker (+180) has a 14-3 record and is making his official UFC debut in this matchup. Walker will be making his UFC debut, and he seems like quite the character. He loves to dance in his walk outs, and even had a strip routine in one of his walk outs. He is athletic and has great movement, but he is very raw and not a great fighter. He is 6’5 with an 81.5” reach. He looked much improved in his last match, but Henrique Da Silva is a shell of himself. He has a good jab, and a nice straight right hand. He has nice leg kicks and will throw hard hooks. He will really open up with kicks and will throw a ton of volume. He has a nice front kick to the face. He also likes to throw round kicks, axe kicks and spinning round house kicks. He has nice jump knees and can get very high with his knees. He is aggressive and crashes the distance with long punches to get into the clinch. He is very quick and athletic for someone his size and throws a ton of volume. When fighters pressure him he tends to move straight backwards and can keep his chin high. He can get clipped with big shots, and he has a questionable chin. He is a finisher and has 11 KO/TKOs. When he has a fighter hurt he has great finishing instincts and is a straight savage. He will not walk away if he KO’s a fighter and the ref is out of position, he will throw huge shots until the ref stops the fight. He has been finished by strikes twice before. He has won 6 in a row and is riding a wave of momentum.
Walker is not a great grappler, and his take down defense is not good. He stands too tall and keeps his feet too close together making him very easy to double leg. In the clinch he tries to get the Muay Thai plum, and he is very dangerous with knees in that position. He can get his knee up to the face very quickly, and in short range. He has good elbows, and he will throw them off the break. When he does get the Muay Thai plum he is exposed to uppercuts and over hands, and looks too comfortable in that position, like Ben Saunders. He did show improved takedown defense in his last fight. He was able to sprawl on a double leg, and a single. He also countered with a guillotine off a single leg takedown. He also hit a switch on a single leg and took top position. On top he isn’t that great. He will try to get the back and lock in a rear naked choke, but he doesn’t have good back control and he doesn’t get his hooks in. Fighters are easily able to turn in and get on top. He will attack with a triangle in his guard, and his long legs make him have decent sweeps. He has only been submitted two times and has only been submitted one time. 13 of his 14 wins have come via finish, and he has finished 11 in round 1. He slowed down in his last match in the second and third round, but he was able to win his first decision. Walker needs to be very careful early. Move keep his range and stay defensively sound while staying at kicking range. He then needs to find a way to close the distance and get the fight to the ground. Walker tends to slow down, but he does have better cardio than Rountree and he should try to make this fight go late.
This is going to be a fun fight for as long as it lasts. It is also one of the best fights to target on DraftKings as well. The line for FDGTD is -485 which is the highest on the card. One of these guys is most likely getting finished. Rountree is the much better striker of the two and I think the most likely outcome is him getting the knockout. His striking is much more technical, and he has serious power as well. I think Rountree stands a chance vs most strikers in the division and I expect Johnny Walker to go out there and strike. Walker is a crazy dude though and he throws some wild shit. He also has a ton of power, so he could get a KO of his own if he can land with one of his looping punches. Either way, it’s a fight we need exposure to on both sides. I think the best path for Walker would be to go for takedowns and try to win with GNP, but I think we could just see a striking battle until one of these two goes to sleep.
On DraftKings, this is my favorite GPP fight on the card, and if I was only making 1 LU I would rather have Walker as the underdog. So, he is my preferred play. However, this is a great fight to go all-in on and if I am making 10 LUs then I would probably go 6/4 in favor of Walker. I just have a hard time seeing this fight not on the winning LU, and if Walker can get the KO then he will for sure be on the optimal. It is going to be much easier for him to pay off his salary in a win, so that is why I prefer him out of the two. I do expect Rountree to pay off his salary as well, but at $8.8k and a guy who won’t go for takedowns, we will need an early KO from him to put him on the nut lineup. I don’t expect to see this fight hit the 3rd round, so I see a lot of points coming from the winner and I would want to be overweight on both guys here in GPPs.
Winner – Khalil Rountree via 1st round (T)KO
Ricardo Lamas $8,700 vs Darren Elkins $7,500
Ricardo Lamas (-200) has a record of 18-7 and a UFC record of 9-5. Lamas is a very well-rounded fighter, with a ton high-level experience. He has good kick boxing skills, but I think his kicks are more effective than his punches. Lamas has a nice jab and will use the jab to put together his punching combinations. He has a good 1-2 and a nice left hook. Lamas has really nice kicks, he will attack early and often with leg kicks, and has good power on them. He likes to throw a left hook to the body to set up his low kicks. He has very nice and tricky head kicks. He throws them with both legs, and he can throw it with power or flick it up very quickly and surprise you. He does a good job of sneaking in a head kick mid combination he finished Matt Grice that way. He is a good point fighter with his style and does a good job of landing volume and winning decisions. He isn’t a big KO threat, but he has 5 KO/TKOs and when he hurts you he is a solid finisher. He has a questionable chin and has been finished 4 times via strikes.
Lamas is a former D3 all American wrestler, and if his striking isn’t working he will attack relentlessly with TD attempts. He prefers to get the takedowns against the cage than try to shoot in open space. Lamas has a decent double leg, but a very good single. He will attack with body locks try to take the back and trip you to the ground. He has strong ground & pound and very effective control and elbows. He is dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu, especially chokes. He has a nasty guillotine he will dive on submissions. His take down defense is solid, but he was grinded out by Bektic in his last match, and I see Elkins trying to do the same thing. He is very opportunistic with his takedowns, and he has 5 submissions in his career. He has never been submitted himself. He has strong cardio and can work for all three rounds. I see Lamas trying to keep this fight on the feet and work his kicking game and boxing. If he can use good footwork and keep Elkins at the end of his shots he can take a decision.
Darren Elkins (+170) has a 26-4 record and he is 14-5 in the UFC. Elkins is a grinder. He is the ultimate dog, no matter what you do to this guy, he is going to keep coming unless you put him out. He is an awkward striker, but he has improved. He has a good jab, and a decent straight right hand. Elkins has a strong body kick, and he used it effectively in his last match against Alexander Volkanovski. Elkins has a decent check left hook in close, and he will attack with upper cuts as well. He has an awkward counter right hand and he catches fighters coming in with it. He has a hell of a chin, and his pressure and pace breaks fighters. A lot of his shots are to close the distance and get in the clinch. He took a ton of punishment in his last fight, and eventually that’s all going to come back to him, but as of now his chin is still strong. He has gotten KO/TKO’d two times. He isn’t a big knockout threat, but he has 6 KO/TKOs in his career.
Elkins is a very strong grappler, and that’s his main objective in his fights. He doesn’t have great wrestling shots, but he likes to get a hold of guy and get body locks. He is a dog in the clinch, he gets attached to you makes it ugly and drags fighters to the ground. He is great in the scrambles and is hard to take down and hold down himself. He proved that against Mirsad Bektic, as he wore him out with grappling scenarios, and came back with a nasty head kick to finish the fight. He gets desperate with takedown attempts at times and shoots from way too far out. He has phenomenal cardio, and guys get tired beating on him and he takes over. He usually loses round 1 before rallying for the win. This guy has won so many times as the underdog in the UFC, it’s hard to bet against the guy he always seems to make you pay for it. I see Elkins trying to walk down Lamas and take him down. If he can get take downs on Lamas I see him winning the fight. Whoever can win the grappling will win this fight.
This is one of the few fights on the card that Vegas thinks will go to a decision. With the line on this going to decision at -215, I think we will see both sides of the fight be somewhat under-owned in DraftKings. It’s not one of my favorite fights on the card to target, but I do have interest in it, and mainly for Lamas. I do think Lamas is the much more skilled fighter in this matchup, and I think he should be better at almost every aspect. I think he has the wrestling to control where this fight goes, and he should win a striking battle with relative ease if he does keep it standing. Elkins has taken a ton of damage over his career, so it wouldn’t shock me to see Lamas get a KO here either. I also think Lamas can go for takedowns himself and win this fight with top control. The way Elkins wins this fight would be to do exactly that, go for takedowns and win with top control. That, or backpack Lamas and maybe pick up a RNC victory. Both of those are in play and make Elkins a live dog here, I just think Lamas is the better fighter and has less wear and tear over the years.
On DraftKings, Lamas is my preferred play, and the guy I do want to be sure to get exposure to in GPPs. I think Elkins is in play as well for GPPs, but I won’t have much exposure to him and I prefer him more as a cash game punt. Since Vegas sees this going the distance maybe we can get 30-points or so from Elkins in a loss and that would be fine for cash games as long as we find our 4 wins or ~350+ points. The main reason I like Lamas here for GPPs is because I don’t think he will be highly owned and I think he does have finishing potential as well as 100-point upside. I think the most likely path to victory for him is a decision and not super high scoring, but at lower ownership I am willing to be overweight to the field on Lamas here.
Winner- Ricardo Lamas via unanimous decision
Santiago Ponzinibbio $9,000 vs Neil Magny $7,200
Santiago Ponzinibbio (-280) has a 26-3 record and he is 8-2 in the UFC. Ponzinibbio is an amazing striker. He has great lateral and in and out movement and has super-fast punches and kicks. His leg kicks are brutal, and he throws low leg kicks which are hard to catch. He has a nasty jab, a good straight right hand and right hook. Ponzinibbio is a forward pressure fighter, and he is going to bring the fight to Magny, which I think will work to his favor. His straight right has big power, and he has dropped many fighters with it. He does a good job of when he finds his range, throwing in combination and getting off center line moving in and out. I think in the pocket boxing he will have a massive advantage over Magny. He is a knockout artist with 14 KO/TKOs in his career. He has shown a good chin, and only has been finished one time in his career.
Ponzinibbio isn’t a grappler, but he has improved his takedown defense, and become more comfortable in the clinch. He has strong knees and elbows there, and he is better at defending the takedowns there. Against Magny, I would advise him to try to avoid the clinch, and disengage every time Magny tries to initiate it, because it’s one of his only avenues to win. Ponzinibbio does a great job of sprawling on takedowns and being able to frame when fighters attempt shots on him and pushing away. Ponzinibbio is very hard to hold down, he is strong and athletic and does a great job of returning to his feet. I am not sure about Ponzinibbio’s true Jiu-Jitsu level because I have not been able to see him use it, but he is a black belt, so he knows what to do on the ground. Ponzinibbio needs to pressure Magny and walk him down with punching combinations and leg kicks. If he can land his jab, get Magny moving backwards and land that leg kick, I can see him getting Magny out of there early.
Neil Magny (+240) has a record of 21-6 and he is 14-5 in the UFC. Magny is a workman. He is a well-rounded fighter, who always comes in phenomenal shape. He is very long and does a good job of using his reach. He has a great jab and will double and triple up on it. He has a nice straight right hand, and that is probably his most powerful punch. He has good front kicks to the body and will throw leg kicks. He tries to move and use lateral footwork to stay long and avoid fighting in close range. He keeps a lot of volume on fighters, and when he finds his range he will start to pepper opponents with straight shots. He has a good uppercut in close range, and that’s a punch I think he should try to land on Ponzinibbio. Magny stands heavy on his lead leg, and that’s been a target for fighters in the past like Lorenz Larkin, and RDA. He has a great chin, and the ability to get dropped, weather a storm, and come back to win. He isn’t a big power striker, but he has 7 KO/TKOs mostly through volume. He has been finished twice with strikes himself.
He is a strong grappler, and good clinch fighter. He does a great job of using his length in the clinch to land big knees to the body, and land body lock take downs and trips. Magny likes to take the back from standing position with a wrist ride, and then drag opponents to the ground. Magny on top is very deliberate and works slowly but surely. He has great control and once he gets top position, he will begin to work for the finish. He likes to take the back where he will flatten fighters out and land hard ground & pound before trying to sink in the rear naked choke. He has good take down defense, he is long and is able to keep distance, and see fighter’s takedowns coming. He does a good job of sprawling or digging under hooks. He has phenomenal cardio and will want to take this fight to the later rounds. He has good BJJ, but I wouldn’t say he is a huge submission threat. He only has 3 submissions, and he has been submitted 4 times himself. Magny is going to need to try to get this fight to the ground in my opinion. I don’t see his shots stopping the forward pressure of Santiago, and I see Santiago landing nasty leg kicks and hurting his leg. If he can survive a beating early, then he may be able to come back and finish a tired Ponzinibbio or take a decision.
If this was only a 3-round fight I would have much less interest in it. Since it is a 5-round fight, with a FDGTD line of -260, I think it is one of the best fights to target on the card. I think that puts both fighters in play for GPPs, as well as the stack in cash. Ponzinibbio ITD is currently -141, and I think that makes him one of the better plays on this card because he is the guy I have winning this fight. On the feet, I think Ponzi is the much better fighter and is very dangerous as well. I think he has 1st round finish potential and he is fighting in his home country of Argentina, so he should be fired up. I think the leg kicks will be a big issue for Magny on the feet as well, and if this is a 5-round striking battle, I would favor Ponzi pretty heavily. The best path to victory for Magny is to land takedowns throughout the fight and stay in top control as long as he can when he does. I do favor the gas tank of Magny so if he can push a heavy pace and land takedowns to keep Ponzi guessing on the feet, then he does have a shot to win this fight late or take a decision. With this fight being in Argentina I think he will have to win fairly handily to get the judges nod though.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Ponzinibbio. I think he is one of the better strikers Magny has faced and I think with 5-rounds to work worth he can get a knockout in this fight. He lands 4.23 sig strikes per minute and at $9k, I have a hard time seeing him not pay off his salary with a win in this fight. I think Magny is in play for GPPs as well because he is very cheap and any win from him in a 5-round fight likely puts him on the optimal lineup. I don’t think it is likely for him to get that win, but he is a live underdog here and I want a bit of exposure in GPPs for that reason. I think this is a solid fight to stack in cash as well because I think we get over 100 total points in this fight, so I like locking in the win and those points for my cash games. I actually think that you can choose another high scoring fight to double stack this week in H2H’s and win more than you lose.
Winner- Santiago Ponzinibbio via 2nd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this article and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley, and if you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.