BigMarley3’s DraftKings UFC Breakdown
Event – UFC Fight Night 142 Location – Adelaide, Australia
Thanks for purchasing my UFC FN 142 full DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have the TUF 28 Finale in Vegas on Friday, and then a 12-fight card in Adelaide, Australia on Saturday. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I think it’s a good week to focus more on cash games. The main GPP on Friday is an $8 entry that pays $5K to 1st place. Then the main GPP for Saturday is an $8 entry with $10k up top. I will have a couple LUs that I put into those, but I won’t have many LUs in total this week. They also have a Fri-Sat Survivor tournament where the top 500 in round 1 will move onto the Saturday round, and then those 500 complete in the GPP round. I will probably throw a few LUs in that as well with my cash LU. Other than that, most of my play this week will be in the cash games, and mostly H2Hs for those.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC Adelaide fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Damir Ismagulov $9,500 vs Alex Gorgees $6,700
Damir Ismagulov
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym: Fighter Gym
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 76
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W11
Betting Odds: -460
This is a battle of two UFC newcomers. Ismagulov is a much more experienced fighter and fought the higher level of competition. Gorgees has not fought very many high-level fighters, if any, and Ismagulov will be easily his stiffest test to date. Ismagulov looks pretty technical everywhere. He is a very smart and composed fighter. He is the current M-1 Global Champion. Ismagulov looks to be mainly a wrestler, but he is a very solid striker. He has a nice jab, and a very good straight right hand. He does a great job of keeping a high guard, and his defense on point. He has nasty front and round kicks to the body and head. He throws nice spinning techniques, he has a nice spinning back fist and spinning back kick to the body. He doesn’t do great dealing with pressure on the feet. He will back up in straight lines, and fighters can back him up to the ropes/fence, while landing longer combinations. Ismagulov was supposed to fight Joe Duffy in this matchup, so this is a sizeable step down with Gorgees. He has 8 KO/TKOs, and only been finished one time in his career via doctor stoppage.
Ismagulov is a fantastic wrestler. He does a great job of setting his takedowns up with strikes. He has a nasty single leg, and extreme strength in those positions. He lifts fighters off their feet, and lands explosive slam takedowns. He will come up into a body lock if he can’t finish the single leg, and he has good control against the ropes, while landing short knees and punches. He does a good job of circling to the back and getting slam takedowns or ducking under and grabbing double legs. In top position, he is extremely heavy on top. He has great pressure passing. He likes to get to side control, where he lands nasty elbows and punches. In full and half guard, he will throw nasty body shots and big ground & pound punches. He does a great job of getting to mount, taking the back and then landing brutal ground & pound until the ref stops the fight. He is going to come into this match with a game plan and follow it to a tee. Ismagulov does a great job of finding where his opponent is weak, and then taking it there continuously. He has fantastic cardio and has fought in a few 5 round matches. He isn’t a submission threat with 0 in his career, and he’s never been submitted himself. He’s won 11 consecutive fights and should be extremely confident here. Ismagulov should look to take Gorgees down and pound him out on the ground. Gorgees does seem to be a decent striker and winning on the ground will be the path of least resistance.
Alex Gorgees
Age: 23
Height: 6’2
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym: Australian Top Team
From: Australia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 624
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: +365
Alex Gorgees is taking this fight on short notice, and he has a very tough test here. He is getting to fight in his home country of Australia, but he is just 7-0 and it was hard to find much footage on him. Gorgees looks to be a pretty decent striker. He has solid hand speed and looks to be long for the division. He has a great jab, and a nasty one two. He does a great job of using his front hand to control distance. He will slap and push opponents head back with his lead hand, and then follow with a straight right hand down the pipe. He is great in the pocket, at slipping and returning with punches of his own. He does a great job of leaning out of the way and returning with a straight lead left hand that has nice power. He has strong kicks. He will throw nasty leg and body kicks. He has a nice step in knee, and he does a good job of throwing head kicks at the end of his combinations. He loves to talk in the cage and get in wars. He will get hit, and drop his hands allowing his opponents to keep hitting him. He seems to have a very strong chin, but he hasn’t faced many good fighters at all. The best fighter Gorgees has probably ever fought is 16-14, and he will now face a 16-2 fighter. He has good power, and 3 KO/TKOs in 7 wins and has never lost.
He seems to not be a great wrestler, and his takedown defense is very questionable, but he is good in the clinch. He does a good job of getting the plum clinch, where he will land hard knees to the body, head and throw nice elbows. He does allow fighters to close the distance and get in on his legs. He seems to have ok takedown defense against the cage, but fighters are able to take him down. He is active off his back he will attack with triangles and arm bars, while throwing elbows and looking to sweep. When he sweeps to top position, he works quickly and likes to get to mount where he will throw down ground & pound until the ref stops the fight or his opponents give up their back. He has 1 career rear naked choke and 2 career submissions. He has never been submitted himself, and he is still his brash self on the ground. I have seen him flick fighters off when fighters are trying to leg lock him, and just show total disdain for their skills on the ground also. He has only one decision, and I haven’t seen how his cardio is in later rounds. Gorgees needs to be aggressive and try to get Ismagulov moving backwards. I am not sure if Ismagulov has ever fought in a cage, and maybe if Gorgees can back him up there he can force him into close range where he can land a shot in close and finish the fight.
I think this is an easy debut for Ismagulov. From what I saw of these two guys it looks like two totally different levels. Ismagulov looks like he deserves to be making his UFC debut and seems UFC ready to me. Gorgees only got the call because it was late notice and he is Australian. I think Ismagulov is the better striker of the two and that is where Gorgees is best. If this fight hits the ground, I think Ismagulov dominates and finishes him with ground and pound strikes. I think that is the best game plan for him to have and that is the game plan that will get a lot of points on DK. If we can get takedowns, advances, and enough GNP strikes to make the ref stop the fight, we could be in for a lot of points and I think we get over 100-points here. The only issue is that he is the most expensive fighter, so we really need that 100+ points for him to end up on the winning LU. If this fight stays standing, and we don’t see a finish, then I don’t see Ismagulov paying off that $9.5k salary. He does have an ITD line of -139, so Vegas does think he will get the finish. However, there are other fighters on this card who have a higher ITD line and are cheaper than Ismagulov.
On DraftKings, Ismagulov is my preferred play and I will be fading Gorgees. I just don’t see Gorgees getting a win so even with 20 LUs I think we can still full fade him. I do think Ismagulov is a good play in all formats though because I see him having a very ceiling here. If he does go for takedowns and a finish, then he could have a 120+ point ceiling here and I am ok with having a decent amount of exposure to him. I don’t think he is an all-in type guy, but if he is 35% owned then I would prefer to be overweight. I do feel good about him getting the win as well, so I think he is in play for cash games as well if we can afford him. There are other solid plays as well though, so he isn’t a lock in cash, but he is in play for sure.
Winner – Damir Ismagulov via 1st round (T)KO
Christos Giagos $9,000 vs Mizuto Hirota $7,200
Christos Giagos
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Blackhouse MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: 82
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -345
Christos Giagos is fighting his second fight in his second stint with the UFC, and he has a winnable matchup here against Mizuto Herota. Giagos is a well-rounded fighter. He is mostly a boxer/wrestler, but he has nice kicks as well. He has a good jab, check left hook. He has a nice straight right hand, and when he lands clean he can hurt opponents. He will throw counter overhand rights, when fighters try to close the distance. He has a nice front kick to the body, and the head. He likes to close the distance with straight punch combinations and shoot takedowns. In the pocket he doesn’t have great head movement and can just throw wild hooks. He will stand flat footed in the pocket and is very hittable. He is a tough guy and enjoys going to war. He has a strong chin and has only been finished 1 time via strikes vs the hard-hitting Josh Emmett. He has 7 KO/TKOs himself.
Giagos likes to mix it up, and he does a good job of setting up his takedowns with punches. He likes to close the distance with aggressive blitz attacks and then duck under and grab double legs. He has a decent body lock, and nice knees in the clinch. On top he isn’t that great, but he will control opponents, and land short punches, or he will posture up and throw elbows. He will look to get to the back, and he has a rear naked choke. He can be taken down himself, and when he gets taken down he tends to give his back and has been submitted quite a few times. He has been submitted 4 times in his career and has 2 submission wins himself. He tends to slow a bit as the fight goes on. Giagos is most likely going to be the quicker, cleaner striker in this matchup. If he can keep it at range, and not let Hirota back him up, I think he has a better chance to win. He should look to use his movement, straight right-hand check left hook, and piece Hirota up.
Mizuto Hirota
Age: 37
Height: 5’7
Weight: 155
Reach: 67”
Gym: Cave
From: Japan
UFC Record: 1-4-1
Fight Matrix: 293
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +285
Mizuto Hirota hasn’t looked very good recently. He is 37 years old and lost back to back fights. He looked very bad in losing to Ross Pearson, who also is a very weathered fighter. If Hirota loses here I don’t see his UFC career continuing, and he will be cut. Hirota is a career-long 145er, but with older age the cut is too hard, and he will be the smaller man here at 155. This will be Hirota’s second straight fight in Australia, so he probably will be the more acclimated guy. Hirota is a tough grinder. He has a good jab and will throw leg kicks. He will throw hard counter right hooks and likes to crash the distance with left straight right straight combination. He does a decent job of feinting and keeping enough distance between him and his opponent to not be hit. He can get over aggressive and get countered as he closes the distance. He also is flat-footed, so if fighters throw multi-strike combinations he is there to be hit. He is not a power striker, and a lot of his striking is just to close the distance and get into the clinch. He can be hit clean, and has taken a ton of punishment lately, but he has a great chin and has never been finished via strikes. He has 10 KO/TKOs, but none since 2014, and 0 UFC finishes.
Hirota is a good grappler, and super strong when he gets ahold of fighters. He is excellent at ducking under punches, and timing body lock clinches, where he is very heavy on top. He works methodically and doesn’t unload with big ground & pound until he really feels he has strong control. He does a good job of slowly working his way to mount where he will land nice elbows and short punches. He isn’t a very active seeker of the submission, and he is going to be smaller fighter in this matchup. He has 0 submissions in his career and has only been submitted 1 time. Hirota’s best path to victory here is to make this a dog fight. He needs to close the distance throw hard punches and look for takedowns. I don’t think he is extremely dangerous but getting on top and grinding Giagos out is his smartest path to victory.
This is one of my least favorite fights on the card from a DraftKings perspective. The line for Fight Goes To Decision is -265 and neither of these guys fight at a high enough pace to score highly in a decision win. Hirota has scored over 100-points one time in his career, but that was with 6 takedowns and 6 advances and I don’t see him having that kind of ceiling in a win here. I do think he is live for an upset if he can get takedowns and hold top control long enough for a judge’s decision. Hirota also lands 3.66 sig strikes per minute compared to 2.16 from Giagos, so if he can strike at a higher pace in this fight along with landing at least 1 takedown per round, then I could see him getting a win as a big underdog. I think we would be looking at 70-80 points, but that is fine at his salary if he can get it done. I just think Giagos is the better fighter at this point in their careers and I have to side with him to get the win. I just don’t think he gets a finish and at $9k I think that is what we will need. I see him being the better fighter on the feet and landing the harder shots, and I think he just picks Hirota apart for 15-minutes most likely. I think we would be looking at 70-80 points in a win from him too and at $9k that isn’t going to help win any tournaments.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be Hirota. It is not a guy I will be heavy on at all, but I do think he is live here and we need underdogs in our lineups. If he can get a 70-point win at $7.2k then we can possibly win a GPP with that. I think 70-points from a Giagos win would kill our shots at a GPP win though and I would rather pay up elsewhere if I am spending $9k. I will be fading Giagos this week and I think if you are making 10 or less LUs then you can do the same. He will need a finish to end up on the winning LU, so if you think he gets one then that is when I would consider rostering him. Hirota will be a guy a sprinkle in but I won’t be starting any LUs with him.
Winner – Christos Giagos via Unanimous Decision
Kai Kara-France $9,100 vs Elias Garcia $7,100
Kai Kara-France
Age: 25
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: Australia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 46
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -340
Kara France will be making his UFC debut. He did have a short stint on TUF where he lost to Pantoja. He will be taking on Elias Garcia who is taking this fight on short notice, after losing his UFC debut earlier this year. France is another Australian fighter out of city kickboxing, a camp which has taken the UFC by storm. He is a nasty Muay Thai striker. He has had a lot of pure Muay Thai fights also in his career. He is very technical, he likes to control the center of the cage with a high guard and walk opponents down. He has great footwork and does a great job of sliding into range to land his punches. He does a great job of side stepping and using misdirection to find openings for his punch combinations. He has a great jab, both to the head and the body. He likes to draw out shots from his opponents, so he can slip and return. He has a nasty overhand right, left hook combination. He will pepper his opponents, keeping heavy volume, doubling and tripling up the jab before throwing a hard uppercut left or right hook. He is diligent attacking the body with hard hooks. He likes to throw fade away check left hooks as he’s angling off and slip overhand rights in the pocket. He has nice leg kicks and will throw high kicks at the end of combinations. He has 10 KO/TKOs and is a very good and dangerous striker in space. He has been KO/TKOd 2 times, but they were his second and third fight and he hasn’t been finished with strikes since then.
He isn’t an offensive grappler, and he uses his wrestling in reverse most of the time to keep the fight on the feet. He is very slippery and explosive when fighters try to take him down and will bounce right back up. He does a great job of getting his back to the cage when fighters attempt takedowns, and he’s able to stuff most takedowns. He has a great sprawl on double legs and does a great job of getting double under-hooks and pushing off when fighters try to clinch up with him. His footwork makes it hard to jam him against the cage, because he does a great job of using lateral movement and staying in center of cage. I wasn’t able to find any fights where he shot a takedown himself, and or engage in the clinch. He had a very competitive fight with Alexandre Pantoja in which he was able to stuff almost all his takedown attempts. I wasn’t able to find any fights of him working off his back or from top position on the ground. He has been rear naked choked twice in his only two submission losses in MMA. He has 3 submissions in his career and coming off a rear naked choke victory. He is going to be hyped up making his UFC debut fighting at home, and I see him trying to come out quickly. This should be a fun striking match. Garcia is more wild and dynamic with his striking style, while France is much more technical. France just needs to find his range and get in a flow state with his striking game. If he can make Garcia fight in boxing range for extended periods of time I believe he has the cleaner punching technique and combinations.
Elias Garcia
Age: 26
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Roufusport MMA Academy
From: Milwaukee
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 101 (FW)
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +280
Elias Garcia is a cousin of the Pettis brothers, and a dynamic striker. He likes to use flashy techniques, and he is creative with the strikes he throws. He is fighting for the first time out of the country and is the much less experienced fighter than Kara France. Garcia likes to stay at kicking range, and he is very open on the feet. He throws leg kicks, and oblique kicks to the knee. He likes to throw front kicks to the body and head. He also throws nice round and question mark kicks. His hands are still developing, but he has a nice one-two, and will throw a counter right hook in the pocket. He throws un-setup kicks at times and fighters can jam them and land counter punches. I have seen Garcia dropped by low-level fighters on the regional scene, as they counter his kicks with straight punches. When fighters get in the pocket and force him to box he will get very wild throwing looping shots and is very easy to hit. He doesn’t have huge power and has just two KO/TKOs in his career. France is going to have a big advantage on the feet in my opinion, and Garcia has to be careful on the feet. He has never been finished with strikes in his career. He is coming off the first loss of his career, and we will have to see how he bounces back.
His Jiu-Jitsu is really the most dynamic part of his game. He is dangerous with submissions from top or bottom position. He will even jump for flying triangles and guillotines and has a ton of faith in his BJJ. He has no problem pulling guard and ending up on his back. He has good balance and will defend single legs well by jumping on one leg and is pretty hard to take down in space. When Mark Delarosa put him against the cage he was able to get double under hooks, and body lock him easily. Garcia has fast hips and is dangerous with triangles and armbars. I have seen him get explosive double legs, move quickly into dominant position and earn a ground & pound finish, but that was against low-level fighters. He doesn’t seem to be much of a wrestler, and I would be surprised if he took France down. Garcia needs to try to either land a flashy kick and hurt France or somehow get it to the ground even if he’s on his back. If he can get France to play on the ground with him I see that as his greatest chance of victory. He has 3 submissions and lost via rear naked choke in his last fight.
This should be a fun fight. I think the Australian is the rightful favorite here and I see this fight staying on the feet where he should have the advantage. Garcia is a cousin of the Pettis brothers, so he is capable of fighting on the feet, but on the ground is where he will have his best chance at winning. If he can get this fight to the ground I think he is live for a submission win, but I have a hard time seeing him get the fight to the ground and I think he will be forced to strike for most of the fight. I think Kara-France will be the guy who will be pushing forward and landing the harder shots. I also think he will be the one throwing more volume because he loves throwing punches in combinations. He also has power, so he could put this fight away with one of his combos. His ITD line is -105 which is solid. However, we are relying on a knockout from a 135 lb guy for that to happen because I don’t see him getting a submission here.
On DraftKings, I think this is a decent fight to target, but not one of my favorites. My preferred play is Kara-France because he is much more likely to get a finish and he has 100+ point upside if he can get it done early. I like him much more than Giagos and I think a lot of the ownership will go to the guys above Kara-France, so we should get him at fairly low ownership here with solid upside. I am interested in him in GPPs for that reason, but I don’t see him making my cash LU. Garcia will be another underdog I sprinkle on because I don’t like many underdogs and I don’t want to go heavy on any of them. I will try to stick with a smaller core and just mix in guys where they fit down here near the $7k range.
Winner – Kai Kara-France via Unanimous Decision
Keita Nakamura $8,800 vs Salim Touahri $7,400
Keita Nakamura
Age: 34
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: K-Taro Dojo
From: Japan
UFC Record: 3-6
Fight Matrix: 102
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -190
Keita Nakamura has been a fighter I have really liked for years. He is a never say die competitor who is always dangerous in the octagon. He can be losing for 2.5 rounds, and still come back to earn the victory, such as vs Li Jingliang. He is 34, and has lost 2/3 fights, and with a loss here he may be cut from the company. Nakamura is an awesome grappler, but he has rounded out his game over the years. Nakamura is a very composed striker, but not very dynamic or dangerous. He throws a nice jab and straight left hand. He has a good check left hook. He has strong body kicks as well, and that is probably his most dangerous technique on the feet. He very rarely gets wild or out of position on the feet. He likes to stay at his range and measure fighters, trying to time them coming in with a straight shot or takedown. He is hittable, but he has a good chin and will eat shots and continue to pressure forward. He has only been finished one time by TKO in his entire 42 fight career. He isn’t much of a knockout threat with only 6 KO/TKOs in his career.
Nakamura is an excellent grappler and very opportunistic submission artist. He has a very well timed double leg, that he will convert into a body lock if he cannot finish. He does a great job of staying sticky, and glued to his opponents, once he can get ahold of them, and is very good at eventually finishing the takedown. He is a superb back taker, and he can take the back standing or on the ground. He does a great job of sneaking his hooks in quickly and having excellent control in that position. He has 12 rear naked chokes in his career, and they are definitely his go-to submission. He seems to have a knack for come from behind submission victories and can be getting dominated for the duration of the fight and pull it out in round 3. He has good cardio and is a long-time veteran of the sport with much more experience than Touahri. Nakamura should look to get takedowns in this fight. If he can take the back of Touahri I think he will likely finish the fight, and if he can get takedowns I’m not sure Salim can get up.
Salim Touahri
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: ATT
From: Poland
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 283
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +165
Salim Touahri is trying to earn his first UFC victory here in his second fight. He is training at ATT again for this camp, and he is the fighter who should be showing improvements. K-Taro has had a fantastic career, but he seems to be slowing down a bit. He was dominated by Tony Martin in a one-sided decision. Tony Martin has looked amazing since moving to 170, and that is not a terrible loss. Touahri looks to be an explosive striker with one punch knockout power. He has a long stance and likes to move on the outside and stick and move. He likes to jab to the body and head, use a lot of lateral movement, and walk opponents into check left hooks. He will throw counter uppercuts backing up also. He has good inside leg kicks, and he will load up on hard body and head kicks, but they come slow. His movement is a bit choppy, and he isn’t the most athletic fighter. He isn’t extremely fast with his hand speed, and he can get countered when fighters get aggressive. He also always ducks his head after throwing left hooks, and it makes him susceptible to uppercuts. He also can get backed up with punching combinations and doesn’t have great defense in my opinion. Salim has not been very active recently in his career, he has fought two times in the last 3 years, and took another year lay-off in between this fight and his last one. He does seem to have good power, and I’ve seen him one punch KO fighters. He has 5 KO/TKOs, and he has been finished 1 time himself by strikes.
Touahri is not a grappler, but he did show a lot of improvements with his takedown defense in his last fight. He still has a long stance, and fighters are able to snatch single legs against him. He did a better job of getting his back to the fence where he was able to defend the single against Warrley Alves, after I had seen him taken down easily in previous fights. Against the cage, he has good takedown defense. However, he can be controlled against the cage. He will rarely go for any grappling positions, but if he gets hurt he will close the distance and try to clinch opponents up against the cage where he will throw knees and short punches. Touahri cannot let K-Taro get him against the cage, because I see K-Taro’s chain wrestling being a huge factor in those positions. Off his back he seems to not have much at all. He won’t attack with submissions, and just tries to relax and control the posture of his opponents until the ref stands them back up. He does have solid cardio and had a solid performance in his UFC debut on short notice against Warrley Alves. He does have 3 submissions himself, and on top he will go for arm triangles and rear naked chokes. He has won 7 of his 9 fights via finish. Touahri needs to stick and move, and not get backed up past the two black lines. If he can stay in the center walk K-Taro down and land his jabs to the body and head, force K-Taro to open up and then land his check left hook or right hand and try to knock him out.
This is another fight I like for DraftKings. We have a classic striker vs grappler matchup and whoever can control where this fight goes will win the fight. If K-Taro can get takedowns, then he could finish this fight in any round. If he can’t get a finish, then takedowns should at least help him win a decision. If Touahri can keep this fight standing, then he is likely going to win the fight and he could get a finish as well. K-Taro is the much more experienced fighter and he knows where his strengths are, so I am confident he will be going for takedowns and if he gets just 1 he could lock up a submission here and score highly on DK.
On DraftKings, I prefer Touahri because every fight does start on the feet and K-Taro isn’t the greatest wrestler, so maybe he can keep this fight standing where I think he will have a big edge. We have to roster underdogs in our lineups and on a card where I don’t want to pick many underdogs, it makes Touahri one of my favorite cheaper plays on the card. I think K-Taro is the rightful favorite here, so I won’t be super heavy on Touahri, but I don’t really like the underdogs on this card, so he is one I am going to go out on a limb on and pick to win. I am not very confident in that though, and maybe it is more just for my rooting interest since I don’t like rostering the underdogs on this card. I think he is a better GPP play than a cash play though because he does have a very low floor. I also have interest in K-Taro because if he can get 1 takedown in the 1st round then he could very easily score 100+ points in this matchup because I think he is likely to get a submission if he can get it to the ground. I don’t see him having 120+ point upside, so I like the guys above him if you want to shoot for scores like that, but he could easily pay off this $8.8k price tag and with him looking like he is nearing the end of his career we might get him at low ownership with people fading him. I also want to roster him as a hedge to my Touahri LUs since he will be one of the underdogs I have higher ownership on. If I was making 10 lineups for this card I would guess that Touahri would make 4 of them and Nakamura would be in 1-2.
Winner – Salim Touahri via Split Decision
Ben Nguyen $8,500 vs Wilson Reis $7,700
Ben Nguyen
Age: 30
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai & MMA
From: Australia
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
This is a battle of two fighters who badly need a win. Wilson Reis has lost 3 consecutive fights after fighting Demetrious Johnson for the title, while Ben Nguyen is coming off a bad performance in which he was dominated by Jussier Formiga. Ben Nguyen is a fun fighter to watch and one of the best flyweight finishers in the UFC. He is a dangerous striker, with good knockout power. Nguyen is extremely aggressive and will go hard from the opening bell. He is light on his feet, and he likes to close the distance with combinations usually starting or ending with a kick. He has a nasty jab and covers a lot of range with it. He had a good overhand right straight left-hand combination, and he will end it with leg and head kicks. He does a great job of cutting off the cage and controlling the center. He has nice front and round kicks to the body. He does a good job of staying at his range, sliding in and out and using good head movement to slip and return punches. If he can get fighters going backwards he does a great job of coming forward with straight punching combinations and swarming his opponents. He will dig to the body when he is going for the finish to try to get fighters to drop their hands, and then go up top. He has a strong step in uppercut. He has good power in his straight right hand, and big power in his high kick. His speed on the feet is very evident, and he will be the much quicker fighter in and out on the feet. He is hittable, because he is very aggressive, and he also sometimes gets too aggressive and comes in square making it easy to get in on his legs. He needs to be more patient in this match, and not blitz Reis, because Wilson can duck under and get a double leg. He has 9 KO/TKOs, but his chin is questionable, and he has been finished 5 times by strikes.
Ben Nguyen is a competent submission grappler. He isn’t a wrestler and will rarely shoot takedowns. He has strong knees in the clinch and will land nice shots off the break. He has nice head position in the clinch and throws short punches, elbows and knees to the body and head. He does a good job of getting an under hook and trapping the other wrist to create openings for shots. He only has 1 take down in 6 UFC fights, and no way we see him attempt one here in my opinion. His takedown defense has been questionable over the years, but it looked improved for his fight with Formiga. He did a good job of avoiding a few double legs and was able to stand up from the bottom a couple times. He does a good job of exploding and creating a scramble to return to his feet. He is a good scrambler and does a good job of rolling through and taking the back or ending up in top position. He was able to reverse a takedown attempt of Tim Elliot, take the back and quickly submit him in round 1. If fighters are able to scramble with Nguyen, he will give up dominant positions and take a beating. He got smashed by Louis Smolka on the ground and submitted by Jussier Formiga. He starts quickly and has 3 first round finishes in the UFC. He has 5 career submissions. He has only been submitted 1 time in his career. He needs to stay off his back in this match, because Wilson will have a major advantage there. Nguyen needs to control distance and keep this fight on the feet. He is going to be the cleaner striker on the feet, and if has a good game plan here he could easily win the fight. He needs to avoid getting over aggressive and closing the distance with his hips square, because he definitely will be taken down.
Wilson Reís
Age: 33
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 6-5
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +130
Wilson Reis is a long-time veteran of MMA. He is 33 years old and has lost three in a row, so he may be nearing the end. He still looked pretty good in his last fight, and has a lot left in my opinion. Reis has done a good job of improving his striking game over the years, but he is still a bit clunky. Reis is a lot lighter on his feet with improved footwork. He has a heavy right hook with nice power. He uses a lot of head movement and comes in with hooks. He will throw body kicks and inside leg kicks, and they are powerful. He is heavy on his lead leg and can leg kicked himself. He will try to catch opponents with a winging wild left hook. His whole game is to punch his way into the body lock and get the takedown. Fighters with good lateral movement, are able to move around and avoid his power shots and pick him off as he closes the distance. He is a very tough guy with great cardio and is always walking down his opponents. He isn’t a KO striker with 0 Kos in his career. He has an ok chin but has been finished 3 times. He has only been finished 1 time by strikes at 125 by the current champion Henry Cejudo.
Wilson Reis is a fantastic wrestler, and a powerhouse for 125 lbs. He has nasty double leg entries, and when he gets in the clinch he will take fighters for a ride. He is strong in the clinch and does a good job of controlling fighters against the cage. He will go for single legs in that position as well. He is great in the scrambles and will take the back or get up off his back, into a double leg and get on top. He is very heavy on top and has a pressure jiu-jitsu game. He has great passing ability and does a great job of quickly getting to dominant positions where he can get submissions. He has a strong mount and will land nice ground & pound until fighters give the back and get rear naked choked. He has 5 rear naked chokes in his career. He is also very good at getting arm triangles, in which he has 4. He has good takedown defense, and if fighters get him down, he is hard to hold down. He has 9 career submissions and only been submitted once by Demetrious Johnson. Reis needs to close the distance, get inside and get takedowns. I see his double leg being effective, and potentially slowing Nguyen’s forward pressure. If Wilson can get Nguyen backing up, and find a takedown, he has opportunities on the ground to do damage and finish the fight.
This is one of the best fights on the card and a fight I am looking forward to watching. I think on the feet, this is going to be Ngyuen’s fight to lose. I think he will be the one landing the harder punches and he lands 2 more sig strikes per minute than Reis does. Plus, he is the hometown guy. I have a hard time seeing him lose a striking match. The way for Reis to win here is by getting the fight to the ground and either getting a submission or a decision win. He has 0 (T)KO’s in his career so I don’t see him getting his 1st one here. If he does even get a knockdown I think he would follow it up with grappling and look for a submission instead. Reis does land 4.94 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 43% accuracy. If he can get takedowns in this fight I think we will see an upset because I don’t see Ngyuen having a lot for him on the ground.
On DraftKings, this is another fight where I would be targeting both sides, but I prefer the underdog if I was just making 1 LU. I will have more exposure to Reis here because I think he will go for takedowns throughout this fight and I don’t see him wanting to have a striking battle against Ngyuen. I think this is a very winnable fight for Reis and if he can win a grappling-heavy fight then he will probably score highly as well. At $7.7k I would be fine with anything over 77 points to get my 10x from Reis here, but I think he does have 100-point upside if he can win this fight. I also think Ngyeun has 100+ point upside if he can get a dominant win, and I don’t think either guy has to get a finish to get there. If this is a back and forth fight, then I think we are looking closer to ~80 points for the winner, but at these price tags I am ok with that. This is one of my favorite fights on the card to target and if I was making 10 LUs I think this would be in at least 7 of them. I think it is a solid cash game option as well for either side, and even a sneaky stack option. I haven’t messed around with many LUs yet, but I think we get over 100-points here with a high overall ceiling, so that is what makes it a stack option. If you are confident in either side, I would rather just stack the main event and go with your confident pick for this fight.
Winner – Wilson Reis via Split Decision
Alexey Kunchenko $9,200 vs Yushin Okami $7,000
Alexey Kunchenko
Age: 34
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 70”
Gym: Fighter Gym
From: Russia
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 36
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W19
Betting Odds: -340
Alexey Kunchenko made his UFC debut with much fan fair but had a lackluster performance against Thiago Alves. He will be looking to regain that momentum with a better performance against another longtime veteran Yushin Okami. He is 19-0 and a record like that can be easily marketed if Kunchenko can put together some better showings. He is a Russian hand to hand combat champion, as well as M-1 Global champion. He is very technical and methodical. He will walk forward behind a high guard and has a fantastic defense and head movement while trying to read his opponent’s movement and pick smart shots. He has a nice jab, and good check left hook right hand combination. He has very quick hand speed and will land hard hooks in the pocket, while avoiding his opponent’s shots. He does a great job of closing the distance throwing hook combinations, and when you start to raise your guard he will come up the middle with hard uppercuts. He has a nice counter straight right hand, he also will dig to the body with left hooks. He has nasty kicks, great leg kicks, body kicks, and head kicks, and throws them with very little wind-up. He will throw nice spinning heel kicks to the body and head as well. His footwork is very nice. He does a great job of always stalking his opponents to the cage and cutting them off when they try to return to the center. He doesn’t throw much in combination and just does a lot of one shot attacks. When I re-watched his fight with Thiago Alves, I appreciated the performance a bit more. Kunchenko hardly got hit, and I thought he clearly won with his forward pressure, and more volume. He has 13 KO/TKOs in his career and has never lost himself.
Kunchenko is a strong grappler, but he usually prefers to strike. He has nasty knees to the body, head, and has multiple knee knockouts in the clinch. He is very physically strong and has good takedown defense. He has great takedowns, good double legs, body locks, and has very brutal ground & pound. He is long and can stand up in his opponent’s guard and rain down straight punches until they are unconscious. He has good top control and will throw the legs to the side and go to mount and look for ground & pound. His methodical pace allows him to keep the same pace all match, and systematically breakdown his opponents before knocking them out. He isn’t much of a submission threat with only one career submission. The UFC is obviously trying to propel him to the top 15 here with a matchup against another fading UFC legend in Yushin Okami. Kunchenko is just going to need to stay off his back, and he should have the advantage everywhere else. He will be the much more technical striker, and if he can keep it on the feet over three rounds I think he would have a good chance of taking Okami out.
Yushin Okami
Age: 37
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Wajutsu Keishukai Tokyo
From: Japan
UFC Record: 15-6
Fight Matrix: 53
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +280
Yushin Okami is a humongous WW. He used to be one of the biggest MWs in the UFC, and he really used that size to advantage in his last fight. He dominated Dhiego Lima taking him down at will, flashing a bit of the old Okami. He is 1-1 since returning to the UFC, but I don’t hold the OSP fight against him as it was short notice at 205 lbs. Okami is definitely not the striker he once was. He is stiffer with his movements and has been finished a few times now. He hasn’t been KO’d since 2014 and has started using a much more risk-averse style. He uses timing on the feet now. He will throw a jab and straight right hand. He likes to time his straight right hand as he closes the distance to get into the clinch, and all his striking is really to set up his grappling. He likes to use a straight right hand left uppercut combination, and he does have nice timing and accuracy on the right hand. He throws very hard body kicks. His chin is weak, and if he gets in longer combinations in the pocket he is in danger of being clipped. Okami just needs to use his striking to close the distance in this fight. Kunchenko is too clean of a counter puncher for Okami to try to keep it on the feet. He has 12 KO/TKOs in his career, and he is dangerous if he can land clean. He has been finished 5 times via strikes himself.
Okami is still a fantastic grappler, he showed that in a dominating performance in his last match. Dhiego Lima has always had problems with pressure grapplers, and this will be a true test to see where Okami is at. He has great timing on his double legs and is very strong in the clinch. If he can’t get his double leg he will come back up into a body lock, and he’s a very sticky grappler. He does a great job of circling to the back in the clinch on the feet and slamming his opponent or dragging them to the ground and taking the back. He likes to stay heavy in opponent’s guards, and he shoves his opponents head to the cage landing short ground & pound punches and elbows. He likes to try to trap his opponent’s legs in the guard and then try to get to mount. He will look for arm triangles and has strong ground & pound from half guard as well. His takedown defense is good, but he can be taken down and was taken down by Paul Bradley multiple times. He has good cardio still and can go all three rounds. He is not a big submission threat and just has 3 submissions in his illustrious career. He has only been submitted one time by a Von Flue choke to OSP at 205 lbs. Okami is going to need to close the distance and get this fight to the ground. He cannot go backwards in this fight, and he needs to go forward and push Kunchenko backwards. If he lets Kunchenko have space and time to get his rhythm and striking game going it will be a long night for Okami. Okami needs to get in on a double leg, get Kunchenko to the cage, and grind on him for 3 rounds or until he can find a finish.
I think this is a tough matchup for Okami. I think this is a great fight for Kunchenko because he is the better striker and he should have the wrestling ability to keep this fight on the feet. I think Okami’s only real chances here are winning with a grappling-based game plan or a KO. I just think that is a tough task in this fight and I would be pretty surprised if Kunchenko lost this fight. However, I think we would have to get a KO from Kunchenko for him to pay off his $9.2k salary and I am not sure that will be the case. If Kunchenko wins a 15-minute striking match, then he could have another ~57-point score as he did in his first UFC fight.
On DraftKings, Kunchenko is my preferred play but this is not a fight I am looking to target a lot. If I do use anybody from this fight it would be Kunchenko and I would be hoping for a 1st round KO. I just can’t invest much when I am relying on that 1st round KO for a high DK score. I think Okami could get some ownership with people hoping he can win a takedown-heavy type fight, I just don’t think that will be the case and I will be full fading him personally. I think if you are making 5 or less LUs then you can just fade this fight altogether.
Winner – Alexey Kunchenko via Unanimous Decision
Jimmy Crute $8,700 vs Paul Craig $7,500
Jim Crute
Age: 22
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Greco & Stewies Gym
From: Australia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 72
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -245
Jim Crute is making his UFC debut, after a big left hook KO on the DWCS. He will be fighting Paul Craig, who is coming off a comeback of the year candidate, with a Hail Mary submission with less than 10 seconds left on the clock after getting dominated for 14 minutes and 50 seconds. Jim Crute will be fighting in his home country, and I’m sure he will come out quickly. Crute is trained by Sam Le Greco, who is a great kick-boxer, and he is growing in his striking game. He is light on his feet, and quick in and out for a 205er. He has a nice jab, and a good overhand right. He likes to bounce around on the outside, and then explode in with shots. He is good at throwing in combination, and he likes to finish his boxing combinations with leg kicks. He does a great job of attacking body head. He can slip punches and counter with left hooks. He has hard body kicks, and nice head kicks as well. He can be hit with shots, but he has a strong chin and will take a shot to give his own. He is still evolving as a striker, and his grappling is the best part of his game. He is undefeated at 8-0 and has solid power with 3 KO/TKOs.
He is a very strong wrestler with a good double leg. He has quick passes and does a great job of getting to side control and then full mount. He gets very high in the mount and will land heavy ground & pound punches and elbows. He does a great job of staying heavy in mount, and not letting fighters explode up. He can get too high on the mount and rolled at times, but he will attack with leg locks, and does a good job of winning scrambles and ending up back on top. He has nice arm triangles from top position. I find it hard to imagine Paul Craig taking him down, because he is a big powerful explosive fighter. He has 2 submissions and never been finished in his career. He does have good stamina, but he gets tired if forced to strike the entire fight. Crute should be better everywhere in this fight, but the path to least resistance, in my opinion, is to keep it on the feet and knock him out. Craig is a bit tricky in his guard, and I think that’s one of a few ways he can win.
Paul Craig
Age: 30
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Scottish Hit Squad
From: Scotland
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +205
Paul Craig is looking to follow up on the biggest victory of his career and try to prove it wasn’t a fluke. Paul Craig isn’t a great striker. He likes to throw out a jab and try to stay long as he does have a long reach. He likes to throw round and front kicks to the body, and also will throw nice spinning kicks to the body and head. He will throw a one two, but his hands aren’t great. He likes to counter and go second, but if fighters pressure and close the distance on him he struggles. He seems to fall in love with one shot and get super predictable like throwing a switch high kick over and over and with little power. If you get him moving backwards and throw overhands to counter his jab he has little answer and will crumble. He doesn’t react well to shots. He has been finished in two of his last three fights, and he took a lot of punishment against Ankalaev as well. He doesn’t have great power, and only 1 KO/TKO in his career.
Paul Craig is a dangerous submission artist, with 7 submissions in 8 wins. Craig has good dirty boxing, he will attack with hard uppercuts and solid knees. He is open to be hit in close range, and I think Crute would have the advantage in the dirty boxing range. Craig has pretty good single and double legs, and he showed improved wresting against Ankalaev. He doesn’t have incredible top control and fighters are able to stand up from under him, but he will attack with front chokes, and land short punches and elbows. Off his back he is dangerous if you are in his guard, he has a nasty triangle and arm bar. He will land hard elbows in his guard and beat fighters up off his back. If you pass his guard, fighters are able to hold and beat him down. He does do a good job of being calm and surviving, and just needs one moment to lock up a submission. His cardio isn’t bad and he’s able to go hard for 3 rounds. Craig needs to get this fight to the ground, get on top and do damage or find a submission.
This is a fight I don’t want to target but I feel like I need to. I really don’t think either guy belongs in the UFC but the -275 FDGTD line makes this a decent DraftKings fight. I think Crute is sloppy on the feet, but he is still the much better striker and he is way more powerful as well. If this fight stays standing, then I think Crute winning via knock out is the most likely outcome. I think if he does get a KO then he could end up on the winning lineup no matter what round it is in. I don’t see him having any interest in going to the ground in this fight though. Craig on the other hand will want this fight on the ground. If he can get the fight on the ground, then I think a submission is a possible outcome. I don’t see him consistently getting takedowns though, so I think he needs the submission to get his hand raised. He is not great at getting takedowns himself and most of his submissions are from his back, so if he gets a late submission win then I don’t think it is a lock he ends up on the optimal LU because it still could be under 10x his salary. I think we could see him try to pull guard and work his submissions that way, but it could work.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Crute and I think him getting a KO is the most likely outcome. I just am not impressed with what I have seen from him, so I do want at least 1 Craig LU as well in case he can find a submission win. I do agree with the -275 FDGTD line though and whoever wins I think it will be from them getting a finish. That is why I will be targeting both sides of this fight even though it is one of the least skilled fights on the card. If I am making 10 LUs, I would think Crute makes 3-4 and Craig makes 1-2. It is not a fight I really want to target in cash though because I am not confident in either guy and I think both guys have low floors that I am not comfortable having in my cash LU.
Winner – Jimmy Crute via 1st round (T)KO
Sodiq Yusuff $9,300 vs Suman Mokhtarian $6,900
Sodiq Yussuff
Age: 25
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Team Lloyd Irving
From: Baltimore
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 235
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -600
Sodiq Yusuff is a beast. He is extremely athletic and a very explosive fighter. He is one of those guys that their athleticism just jumps off the TV screen. His hand speed is something else, and he will chain straight punch combos, and dig to the body as well. He is very good at controlling the center and a lot of his opponents get backed up behind the warning track. His speed, explosiveness and power seem to really shock people early and they get into a defensive shell. He has a good jab to the body. His straight right hand is nasty. His footwork is very good, he cuts opponents off and gets them backed against the cage. He hadn’t shown many kicks in previous fights, and in his last fight against Mike Davis he showed a nasty low leg kick which I could see him utilizing in this fight. He has a nice snap kick to the face, and round kick to the head also. His speed is truly what makes him a potentially special fighter. The ability to close distance and land punches, and just his pure hand speed is absurd. He has been KO’d one time, but it was in a freak way. He got stunned by the mat, and then finished with ground & pound. He has good power and has finished 4 of his 7 wins via KO/TKO. He is still relatively young in his career with just 8 total fights.
He likes to get opponents against the fence and control them there. He will hold them against the cage and land knees bank time and take the round. He is good at getting doubles and keeping top position. He will continue to get the front head lock position and drag his opponents down if they try to get up. He has great get ups and is extremely explosive, so I imagine he is extremely hard to hold down. He has good cardio and is very calm and composed in the cage. He has no submissions and never been submitted himself. Yussuf is going to have a massive technique advantage on the feet. He should walk down Mohktarian and be aggressive with his hand combinations. I think Mohktarian will try hard to take and hold down Yussuf early, and if he can’t hold him down he will gas.
Suman Mohktarian
Age: 26
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 67”
Gym: Australia Top Team
From: Australia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +450
Suman Mohktarian is getting the chance to debut on the same card as his brother where he trains in Australia. He has a very stiff test against Sodiq Yusuff, an explosive fighter coming off a big upset win on the DWCS. Suman does seem to be better than his brother. He is a dangerous fighter. He is 8-0 with 7 finishes. He is very aggressive and closes the distance with heavy hooks quickly. He has a very nice left hook, and a powerful right hook. He has a very wide stance, which leaves him susceptible to being leg kicked. He will throw leg kicks and high kicks, but he is more of a puncher on the feet. He likes to talk shit and try to get in fighter’s heads. He isn’t very technical on the feet, and he mostly uses his hooks to try to close the distance and grapple. He does have a powerful straight right hand, and his aggression and power does make him dangerous on the feet. He has one KO/TKO, but he does drop fighters and submit them, and he has never been finished. He lost his last match by decision and will be looking to bounce back here.
Mohktarian is a tricky grappler, and he can lock up submissions from a variety of positions. He likes to use his strikes to crash the distance into the clinch where he will look for body lock takedowns. He also will try to get ahold of the neck and jump for guillotines. He also will duck under and go for double legs. He can control fighters against the cage and land knees and short elbows, but he also can get controlled against the cage himself. He has 7 submissions, and I have seen him get some high-level subs such as a twister. He isn’t a great wrestler, and I believe he will struggle to take down Yusuff. His best chance to win is to pressure forward not give Yusuff any space, and just try to get in as many grappling exchanges as possible and find a submission.
I was very impressed from what I saw from Yusuff and I am glad he is in the UFC. I think he does belong there and I think he will do well against UFC level opponents. I think this is a good fight for him too even though it is over in Australia. I think he is going to be on another level in the striking department and I think a finish on the feet is very likely here. Mohktarian has some very impressive submissions on his record and if these two go into a BJJ match, then Mohktarian would likely be the winner. I just don’t think he is likely to get the fight to the ground and I think that is the only area he could pick up a win. I think Yusuff is going to keep this fight standing and at distance and I see him picking apart Suman and I think he gets a finish as well. He has the highest ITD line on the card at -215 and he has two guys priced above him. He is also the heaviest favorite on the card, so we are getting some value in the DK line.
On DraftKings, Yusuff is my preferred play and I think he is one of the better plays on the card. I think he is a great cash game play and he should be a popular GPP play as well. I think Mohktarian could possibly get a submission if this fight hits the ground, but I would really only be interested in him as a hedge if I am going to be heavily exposed to Yusuff. I haven’t made lineups yet, and I am not sure how many I will make, but if I was making 10 LUs I would guess Yusuff makes at least half of them and based off the odds value I think he ends up in my cash LU as well. If I do have that much exposure to him then I would likely have 1 Mohktarian LU in GPPs just in case. If you think Yusuff wins but you don’t think he has a high ceiling because he won’t grapple here, then I think you can just fade this fight all together. I just think he has a chance at knockdowns and the finish, so I’m sure I won’t be fading him. Also, if you just have a couple Yusuff LUs then I don’t think you need any hedge on Mohktarian and I think a fade would be the best route to take for him.
Winner – Sodiq Yusuff via 2nd round (T)KO
Jake Matthews $8,400 vs Anthony Rocco Martin $7,800
Jake Matthews
Age: 24
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: XLR 8 Training Center
From: Australia
UFC Record: 7-3
Fight Matrix: 60
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -130
Jake Matthews And Tony Martin are two former 155ers who are having a career resurgence at 170 lbs. Jake Matthews is 3-0 since the move up to 170, with one win more dominant than the next, and Tony Martin is 2-0 with a nasty head kick knock out in his last match. Jake Matthews is a young kid and improving every time we see him. His striking is still not great to me. He likes to stay light on his feet bounce around on the outside, close the distance with just one-shot attacks. He has a good straight right hand, and overhand right. He does a good job of throwing a short right hook, and he can clip fighters on the temple with it and rock them. He will throw a straight or right hook, and if that falls short he will throw the overhand left after, to try to land that. He will throw occasional leg kicks, but he very rarely kicks. He is athletic, and his explosiveness at least makes him dangerous on the feet. He doesn’t set his strikes up with many feints or fakes, and fighters who are patient will be able to measure him and land as he closes the distance. If fighters aggressively close the distance on him he has a problem backing up against the cage and being flat footed. He likes to stand in the pocket and try to use head movement to slip he return punches, against an accurate striker like Tony Martin I don’t think that’s a great idea. He has shown that he can break in previous fights, and he seems to like being the hammer, but not the nail. He isn’t a big power striker and has just 4 KO/TKOs in his career. He has only been finished one time in his career via strikes, and he still has a strong chin.
Matthews is a strong wrestler, and that’s what I see him trying to implement here. He is very strong in the clinch, he has hard punches and knees to the body, while looking for nice trips. He has strong double legs and he does a good job of grabbing a single leg, coming back up to a body lock and dumping his opponent. On top he does a great job of guard passing, and his pass from half guard to mount is awesome. He stays very heavy in half control and will rain down heavy ground & pound. He does a good job of taking the back and has a good rear naked choke. He earned a quick submission victory in his last match. He has 7 submissions and has been submitted one time himself.
Anthony Rocco Martin
Age: 28
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: ATT
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 29
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +105
Tony Martin is a beast. He is a fighter I have long pin pointed as a future contender and he looks to be hitting his stride. He is a long fighter, and always measuring opponents on the feet. He likes to stay at his distance and throw nice jabs and straight right hands right down the pipe. His straight right hand is accurate and fast, and he can catch fighters as they close the distance repeatedly. He has a nasty head kick and does a great job of noticing which side his opponents are slipping his right hand and following with a head kick. He likes to throw counter uppercuts when fighters crash the distance to try to make them hesitant to shoot. He knocked Ryan Laflare out with a nasty head kick, and it’s a very dangerous technique. His distance control is awesome, and he is always reading and staying at his own range. He is a very measured fighter, and he will very rarely get out of position, or over extend himself. He has strong inside and outside leg kicks and stays busy with those as well. He likes to lean out of the way of shots and return with powerful one twos, and his sharpness makes opponents get into a defensive shell. I feel he is going to have a major striking advantage against Jake Matthews. Matthews doesn’t set up his blitz attacks, and he needs to disguise when he is closing the distance much better in this fight. He only has the one career knockout, but he has steadily been improving his striking, and he definitely is a dangerous striker now. He has a great chin, and a lot of confidence in it. He has never been finished with strikes.
Tony Martin is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and improving with his wrestling defense. He has great distance control on the feet and does a great job of not letting fighters get inside on him, where they can get in on his legs or clinch up with him. He showed great clinch technique in his last win digging strong double under hooks, pushing the much bigger Laflare to the cage and disengaging. He has been susceptible to being grinded out in the past, but I think he was diminished at 155 lbs and is much harder to take down at 170. He has great takedown defense against the cage, he will get very wide with his stance when fighters attempt doubles, and he will attack with a kimura lock. He has nice kimuras sweeps off his back also and finished Fabricio Camois with a kimura. When Martin gets on top he is very strong he has good ground and pound and likes to stay heavy and pressure pass until he can take the back and get a rear naked choke. He has great back takes, and when he gets in top position he is hard to get up from under on. He will attack with darces and front chokes when opponents try to stand up, and if he gets on top of Matthews he has a good chance at submitting him. Martin has been submitted twice himself in the UFC and has 8 submissions himself. He is coming off his first knockout win and truly feels he is one of the best fighters in the world. A win for either guy here jumps them into the top 15 conversation, so this is a must win for Tony Martin at this point in his career. Martin is going to be the better striker IMO. He needs to keep the same game plan he has been using in his last two fights. Use good lateral movement, and try to land his straight right hand, and head kick, time uppercuts and try to keep distance and strike with Matthews. If he can defend take downs, and reverse and get on top of Matthews I feel he has a chance at a submission also.
This is the closest fight on the card and a very interesting one. Both guys have looked great in their last fights and both fighters have similar styles. I think this will be a fun fight that has a good mixture of striking and grappling, and I am looking forward to seeing who gets the better of those exchanges. I think this is such a close fight that we will see a back and forth match where we see a 29-28 split decision where we wouldn’t complain if either guy won. I am not confident in either side of this fight, but I do like picking Jake Matthews in Australia, so I am going to side with him for that reason. That is how close I think it is.
On DraftKings, I am not going to be high on this fight at all because I don’t have a good read on it. I will either fade this fight completely or I will throw both guys in 1-2 lineups just because they fit as my last spot. If you do have a strong lean on either guy and you think they win this fight in a clear fashion, then I think you should play that guy. I just think this is a 50/50 fight and I don’t really want to throw many lineups in because I expect the winner’s points to suffer from the fight going back and forth. I do think the winner probably gets 10x their salary still since they are in the mid-range, but I just don’t like my read on this fight and that is why I will be underweight on it, if not fading it as a whole. I think this is a better fight to just watch as a fan than it is to invest in.
Winner – Jake Matthews via Split Decision.
Justin Willis $8,200 vs Mark Hunt $8,000
Justin Willis
Age: 31
Height: 6’3
Weight: 265
Reach: 82”
Gym: AKA
From: California
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 50
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -120
Justin Willis is an athletic promising fighter out of AKA. He is a huge HW who cuts to 265 lbs and has an 82” reach. He will have a 10” reach advantage against Mark Hunt and needs to accentuate that on the feet before finding safe times to close the distance. He is actually a pretty fluid striker, and does a good job of staying long. He has a nice jab, and he is always pawing his lead hand out to gauge and control distance. He has a nasty right hook, and good straight right hand. He likes to slip shots and throw a counter right hook followed by a check left hook. His counter right hand is very powerful, he finished Allen Crowder with it, and almost finished Chase Sherman. He will throw an overhand right straight left combination as well. He catches kicks well and will throw uppercuts and straight punches while holding the leg. He is not a kicker, and only uses his hands on the feet. He has shown good striking defense in his 3 UFC fights, and hasn’t been hit much, but this is a massive step up in competition. He is very brash and confident, and I’m sure he will be extremely hyped to fight someone like Mark Hunt. Willis has 4 KO/TKOs in his career and been finished 1 time by strikes.
Willis is training with fantastic wrestlers at AKA and is a decent grappler. He is good in the clinch, he likes to grab a single collar clinch position and throw hard uppercuts. He will try to sweep the leg from that position and get trip takedowns. He also does a good job of catching kicks and getting the fight to the ground. I see him trying to use his clinch in this fight early, get Hunt against the cage, lay on him a bit, and try to wear him down. He isn’t a super active grappler though in recent fights and seems to prefer to strike. On top he isn’t super dangerous, he will throw short punches and elbows in opponent’s guards to the body and head and stays just active enough to not get stood back up. He doesn’t have great passing ability, and fighters are able to explode up from under him as he tries to pass. I think early he will struggle to hold down Hunt if he takes him down. He has landed 4 takedowns in 6 attempts in his 3 fights, so he has been a competent UFC wrestler. He isn’t a submission threat with 0 submissions in his career, and never been submitted himself. He slowed down in round 3 against Chase Sherman and lost the third round. He is only 8 fights into his MMA career, and this is a big test to travel to a foreign country for the first time, in a co-main event and fight a legend. I see Willis being calm, and starting the fight trying to strike a bit from the outside. I see him eventually trying to get in the clinch, and grind against the fence while looking for body locks. If he can get on top of Hunt early, and make him work, he could have more success striking in later rounds and run away with a decision.
Mark Hunt
Age: 44
Height: 5’10
Weight: 265
Reach: 72”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Australia
UFC Record: 8-7-1-1
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 1-3-1
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +100
Mark Hunt is making his last walk to the octagon and getting to do it in his home country. He has had a rocky relationship over recent years with the UFC, and this is almost certainly his last fight in the organization. Justin Willis is getting a huge opportunity to get a win here and announce himself as a future contender in the HW division. Hunt is 44 years old, and definitely is slowing down. He was dominating his last match against Oleinik and got clipped by a short shot that would never have hurt him in the past that dropped him and changed the tide of the fight. I am sure Hunt will be motivated to end his UFC career on a win and come out swinging. Mark Hunt has a nice jab and it makes people weary of going in for the takedown as well as his patented uppercut. He has a nasty counter left hook, and that is his best punch. He has huge KO power, and can knock people out with one shot. He walks forward and keeps heavy pressure and stays ready to slip or parry and counter. He has a nice overhand right, and he counters with it well. He has powerful low leg kicks and can hinder the movement of his opponents with just a few kicks. He is famous for his walk off KO’s and has 11 knockouts to his name. He used to have a granite chin, but recently he has been getting hurt in fights. 4 of his last 6 losses have come by KO/TKO, and he has been finished by strikes 5 times.
He’s gotten much better at his defensive wrestling, using good movement, angles and the jab to back his opponent off. He is short and has a low center of gravity and it keeps him balanced and hard to take down. He also is hard to hold down especially early. He does a good job of digging an under hook and exploding back to his feet. Once Hunt gets taken down a couple times, even if he can survive he seems to really slow down and become much easier to ground again. He was finished by rear naked choke in his last match against Alexey Oleinik and was grinded out by Curtis Blaydes. He almost finished both fighters proving he is still very dangerous and can’t be slept on. Hunt has gotten better at defending submissions on the ground, and I think he shouldn’t have to worry much about being submitted by Justin Willis. Hunt has been submitted 7 times in his career, but 6 of the 7 came pre-2010. He has never gotten a submission in his career, and rarely is in top position. He has relatively good cardio for a HW, and he will have a wealth of experience over Willis. I imagine Willis trying to take this fight to the ground, so Hunt needs to have his lateral movement and jab on point. He needs to move and try to catch Willis as he closes the distance. If he can walk Willis into a shot, he can easily get another walk off KO.
This is the very mid-range fight on the card at $8.2k and $8k. I think both sides are very playable here as well because it is a heavyweight fight and could easily end in the first round. For Mark Hunt, it’s KO or bust. If he doesn’t knock Willis out, I think he loses this fight. I think Willis will look to get this fight to the ground as often as he can, and he will be the much faster guy who utilizes more footwork. Mark Hunt will just be looking to walk him down and land that walk off KO. If he gets that KO, then he probably ends up on the winning LU. Especially if it is in the 1st round. If Willis wins, I think he has a high ceiling just from the takedowns and the ground strikes he could total up. I don’t think he is a sure finish if he wins, but he still has that high ceiling in a decision win. He could also get a (T)KO of his own on the ground or feet, but it is a dangerous game standing with the power of Hunt. The best path for him to win here is by getting takedowns, and that is what I think he does here. I see him getting takedowns all 3 rounds and winning a clear decision for ~90 or so DK points. However, he does have a 0-point floor because Hunt can KO anybody and he will be pumped up from the crowd.
On DraftKings, this is a fight to target both sides in GPPs and I would rather use this fight than the Matthews/Martin fight. My preferred play is Willis because I think he wins the fight and he will be the one who gets takedowns if there are any. I also want some Hunt as well because he could score over 100-points with an early walk off KO and he probably ends up on the winning LU if that is the case. I think Hunt is at the end of his career though, so it really is KO or bust. I don’t see how he wins a decision here and even if he does he would probably only score ~50-55 points because he won’t be going for takedowns and he doesn’t strike at a high pace. I would like to stay away from this fight in cash games because they both have low floors, but I would prefer Willis of the two as well there since I think he is the better fighter and he will look to wrestle.
Winner – Justin Willis via 3rd round (T)KO
Tyson Pedro $9,400 vs Mauricio Rua $6,800
Tyson Pedro
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 79”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Australia
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 36
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -465
Tyson Pedro is a fun personality and a dangerous well-rounded fighter. Tyson Pedro is a very fluid and tricky striker. He uses a lot of feints and movement to throw off what he’s going to do and read openings. He is dangerous with his knockout power, has a solid right hand and high kick. He has great kicks very fluid to the legs, body and head. He also has great knees to the body and will go high to the head if possible. His low calf kick should be effective in this fight. His defense in close isn’t great and he can be clipped and hurt with punches. This is where Shogun will need to capitalize and hurt him. We have seen him dropped by Khalil Roundtree in this position. He is big and powerful, and his kicks keep him in a safe range usually. He has good power but is more of a grappler with 2 KO/TKOs. He has a good chin, recovers quickly and has never been finished by strikes.
His grappling is the best part of his game. He is fairly athletic and does a good job of making fighters have to chase him by staying long, and then ducking under and get double legs. He will also shoot singles and does a good job of controlling opponents against the cage. On top he works quickly and has a strong submission game. He has quick passes, and very fast back takes. Once he has the back, he has long arms and does a good job of finding a moment to slip the arm under the chin and finish the fight. He has three rear naked choke finishes in his career, and 5 submissions overall. He was submitted by a straight arm bar against OSP in his last fight, and his takedown defense needs some work. I doubt Shogun will try to take him down, so he shouldn’t have to worry about that much here. Pedro seems to have pretty poor fight IQ, and it may impact his ceiling as a UFC fighter. Pedro needs to stay long, and calm not get over aggressive or disrespect Shogun. He needs to force Shogun to close the distance, duck under, get a takedown and find a submission. If Pedro wants to be a future contender this is a fight he needs to win convincingly.
Shogun Rua
Age: 37
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-9
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +370
Rua looked awful in his return after over a year off against Anthony Smith, and Tyson Pedro started fast, but got finished by OSP in round 1. Both fighters need a win here in a big way. Shogun is still a very dangerous Muay Thai striker who must be respected. He has won 20 of his 25 fights by knockout and is always looking to take someone’s head off. Shogun likes to use leg kicks to find his range, and he will also use them at the end of punching combinations. Rua throws wild leaping hooks that are extremely dangerous and can put fighters out. He has gotten better at countering with a left hook, and he has a nice straight right hand. He does a great job of catching kicks and returning with overhands, and he can drop opponents with that punch. Rua likes to throw a right hook low kick combination, and sometimes he will fake the right hand and throw a left hook. He also will throw a nasty lead uppercut, but that is a risky shot that puts him at risk of being countered. His punches looked much slower, and his movement was more labored against Smith and his constant knee problems and overall health issues may be catching up to him. He has 20 KO/TKOs in his career, and has been finished by strikes 5 times, and was brutally knocked out only 6 months ago.
Shogun has used wrestling more in recent fights, and he isn’t a bad wrestler. He has good body lock takedowns and will shoot double legs as well. He uses timing more than explosion on his shots, and they need to be well timed or he will usually not get them. Shogun actually has pretty solid takedown defense overall and does a good job of getting his back to the fence where he’s good at defending takedowns. He can get over aggressive and get timed on double legs and taken down. Rua isn’t a submission threat with just one in his career and has been submitted 3 times himself. His gas tank is good, and he has been responsible for some of the biggest comebacks in UFC history. Shogun needs to make this a war on the feet. He needs to close the distance and force Pedro to make split second decisions because he seems to lack fight IQ. If Shogun can overwhelm Pedro with pressure he may be able to catch him with a shot and put him away.
It’s hard to tell what we are going to get from Shogun at this point in his career. He is not the same guy he used to be, and he only has a few fights left IMO. It seems like the UFC is trying to build Tyson Pedro’s name off Shogun here in his home country. Tyson is definitely the rightful favorite and he can win this fight on the feet or the ground. However, I think Shogun is the better all-around fighter if he still has anything left in the tank. He also strikes at a higher pace than Pedro as well as lands more takedowns per 15-minutes. Pedro is just going to have the wrestling advantage, the size advantage, and the power advantage. That is probably going to be enough for Pedro to get the job done in his home country. I do think the betting line is too wide though and Pedro is not a lock for me here. I could see Shogun landing a lot of leg kicks having Pedro worried about those, and then maybe he can catch him with something big to the head and put him out. I do think he is live for an upset, but it’s not something I would invest heavily in.
On DraftKings, Pedro is my preferred play because of his ceiling. He has 1st round finishing potential and if he can get takedowns and finish the fight on the ground he could have one of the highest ceilings on the card. He also is tied for the highest ITD line on the card at -215 so Vegas thinks it’s pretty likely he finishes this fight at some point. I would prefer him in GPPs though as opposed to cash games, because I am more confident in Yusuff and Ismagulov getting wins in their fights. I am not sure what the ownership will look like in GPPs between these top 3 guys, so I will just be mixing them all in fairly evenly. However, I am much more interested in rostering Shogun than I am those other two guys opponents. GPP only as well, but I think he has 1st round finish potential as well and if that happens at $6.8k then he will be the best play on the slate. If I am making 10 LUs, this is a fight I want in more than half of them and I would probably have about 4 Pedro and 2 Shogun.
Winner – Tyson Pedro via 2nd round (T)KO
Junior Dos Santos $8,300 vs Tai Tuivasa $7,900
Junior Dos Santos
Age: 34
Height: 6’4
Weight: 247
Reach: 77”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 13-4
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -160
Junior Dos Santos is one of the best HWs of all time. He has beaten fighters such as Stipe Miocic, Cain Velasquez, Fabricio Werdum, and Shane Carwin. He is a great boxer, and very fast with his hand speed for a HW. He has a nasty jab and will attack the body with it regularly. I see his jab being an integral part to his win here if he gets it, very similar to his Ben Rothwell match. He did a great job of working off his jab in that match after establishing it. After he bloodied Rothwells face he began feinting the jab and throwing overhand right and left hooks. He has a great counter left hook, and his counter punching makes it hard for fighters to be super aggressive with Dos Santos. Dos Santos has nasty low leg kicks, he hurt the leg of Stipe Miocic prior to being finished in his title fight, and I think he will utilize those in this fight. His footwork has always been an issue, he doesn’t have great lateral movement and fighters are able to push him to the cage. When he gets stuck against the cage he doesn’t react well and can get hit clean or taken down. Dos Santos has been better in his last two fights of using his jab and more lateral movement, but that is still an issue for him. Dos Santos is extremely dangerous and has huge power. He has 13 KO/TKOs and has finished some of the best HWs of all time. He has taken a lot of damage and his chin is questionable at this point. He has been finished 3 times by KO/TKO, and they were his last three losses.
JDS is a good grappler, and I think he may try to use that here early. We don’t usually see him go for many takedowns, but he has shown good blast double legs, and can shoot singles, push his opponents to the cage and then look for a takedown from there. I feel he may try to take Tuivasa down early and drain some of his gas tank by controlling him on the mat. Defensively, Dos Santos has great takedown defense and is very hard to hold down. I don’t see that being an issue in this match, and highly doubt Tuivasa will shoot a takedown. Dos Santos has had much more experience in five round fights, and he can go all 5 rounds comfortably. He has only 1 submission in his career and been submitted one time. Dos Santos should look to use his jab, and straight punches to bust Tuivasa up from the outside. He should have a major hand speed advantage, and I feel if he can get out of round 1 it is his fight to lose.
Tai Tuivasa
Age: 25
Height: 6’2
Weight: 261
Reach: 75”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Australia
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +140
Tai Tuivasa will be trying to get the biggest win of his career here over former UFC champion Junior Dos Santos. Dos Santos returned from a USADA suspension and had a dominant win over Blagoy Ivanov. The winner of this fight is in good position to get a title eliminator bout, so it is a big fight. Tuivasa is still young, and this is another step up in competition. He earned a questionable decision against Andrei Arlovski in which I thought he lost, but he had a good showing. Tuivasa is a good athlete, he explodes and moves very fast for someone his size. Mark Hunt says he is the hardest puncher who has ever hit him and is very dangerous. He cuts weight to get to 265 and will have a size advantage in this fight. Tuivasa is a brawler, he is a fighter who wants to get inside and throw punches with vicious intentions. Tuivasa throws big hooks in the pocket with both hands and likes to throw a straight right hand after his left hooks. He has nice leg kicks and can really generate a lot of power even knocking fighters off their feet. He isn’t very dangerous on the outside, and he needs to get inside to be the most effective, but he will attack with dangerous blitzes from the outside. He will close the distance with flying knees and step in elbows and is extremely dangerous if he can get a fighter’s back against the cage. He loads up on his punches, and fighters with good movement and straight punches can counter his wider punches. Andrei Arlovski was able to bloody the face and frustrate Tuivasa, in a very closely contested decision earlier this year. Tuivasa slowed down after the first round in that fight, and his speed and explosiveness were not the same after the first round. He has had a good camp for this fight training with the likes of Mark Hunt, Tyson Pedro and Tiger Muay Thai and this is the biggest opportunity of his career. He had previously won all 7 of his MMA fights via first round KO/TKO before his decision victory of Andrei Arlovski, so he will be looking to come out fast. He is undefeated in MMA, but I have seen him get TKO’d a couple times in kick boxing.
Tuivasa is not a good grappler, and not an active seeker of takedowns. He is dangerous in close range. He can explode with flying knees and elbows and can generate a lot of power in short spaces. He doesn’t go for takedowns, and on top he seems to be uncomfortable. He was able to get an extremely enviable position early in his fight with Andrei Arlovski. He got into mount off a failed sacrifice throw from Arlovski, but Arlovski was able to control posture until the referee stood them up and Tuivasa did no damage. Tuivasa is relaxed on the ground, and even when he got put on his back by Rashad Coulter he didn’t seem to panic. He isn’t dangerous off his back, and if Junior can get on top of him, that could be a problem. Junior is a different animal on top than the previous fighters he has faced. Tuivasa has no submission wins, and never been submitted. He is confident he is going to come out and get a knockout here, but this is a massive step up in competition. I think for Tuivasa to win here he really needs to get it done early. He has to push Junior Dos Santos back, get his back near the fence and then unload with combinations. Junior has shelled out against the cage in recent fights and doesn’t have the best defense in those positions.
Because this is a 5-round fight, I think it is one of the best fights to target on the card and I think we need to have both sides in GPPs. I think JDS is the better all-around fighter and I think he can win this fight via KO or decision. Even though this fight is in Australia, I think it will be tough for Tuivasa to win a decision against a better boxer in JDS, but he is definitely live for a KO upset here. I do think the majority of this fight stays standing and I only see takedowns being attempted if a fighter is hurt and is trying to buy time to recover. Both guys have KO power and this fight could end in any round. We could also see multiple knock downs from either guy which would help a lot with scoring as well. No matter who wins, I think they easily 10x their salary in a 5-round fight and I am going to lean with JDS winning a unanimous decision. I think as long as JDS doesn’t get knocked out, this is his fight.
On DraftKings, this could be an all-in fight. My preferred play is JDS since I think he is winning, but I think Tuivasa will be the one going for the finish. On a card where I don’t see many upsets, I think Tuivasa is one of the best underdogs on the card to target. I think we can stack this fight in cash games because I would be surprised if we didn’t get at least 100 total points. JDS lands 4.83 sig strikes per minute and Tuivasa lands 5.21 sig strikes per minute, so I don’t see this being a boring fight at all. I also think this is a fight we should target in at least 70-80% of our GPP lineups, if not more. With 10 LUs I would probably have this fight in 8 or 9 personally and I would guess that JDS would be in half of them and then I would make 3-4 with Tuivasa as well. Even if you are confident in one guy here I would still make a hedge LU or two with the opposite guy because this is a HW fight and it only takes 1 heavy punch from either guy to end the night.
Winner – Junior Dos Santos via Unanimous Decision
TUF 28 FINALE picks:
Usman
Espino
Chiasson
Munhoz
Stewart
Shevchenko
Glenn
Perez
Greene
Letson
Roberts
Means
Barcelos
Thanks again for purchasing this article and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley, and if you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.