Follow me on Twitter: @14AdotWalsh
No podcast today, we’ll be back tomorrow
WASHINGTON NATIONALS (Jacob Turner – R) @ PITTSBURGH PIRATES (Gerrit Cole – R)
* Turner: 2-1, 3.31 ERA/1.22 WHIP – He made one start earlier this season (@COL) and it went well, 3 ER and 6 Ks in 6 innings. Turner only has one appearance against the Pirates over the last three seasons…and it didn’t go so well: 7 H, 7 ER allowed in 4.1 innings.
RHB are hitting .314 against Turner this season and they even hit .341 against him from 2014-16. Josh Harrison is 8-for-24 (3 doubles, 1 HR, 4 runs) over the last six games. No other RHB are in great form for the Pirates at the moment, but guys like Adam Frazier and Josh Bell are swinging well from the other side of the plate but neither of those guys will cost you a fortune. Update: Frazier will be leading off tonight, great value!
* Cole: 1-4, 3.06 ERA/1.06 WHIP – Except for the opener, Cole has quality starts in every outing and his record would look a lot better if he got more than 7 runs of support over his last five outings. There’s no doubt that Cole is a good pitcher, but he’s taking on one of the best offenses in baseball and that presents trouble within itself.
Cole is allowing over an 80% stolen base success rate since 2014, so this is a perfect opportunity for Trea Turner and Bryce Harper to add to their totals. Turner: 2 HR, 5 RBI in the last four games –Harper: 10-for-21 (2 doubles, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 6 runs) over the last five games.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (Ubaldo Jimenez – R) @ DETROIT TIGERS (Michael Fulmer – R)
***14-16 MPH winds blowing in from right-center***
* Jimenez: 1-1, 6.15 ERA/1.51 WHIP – There is probably no circumstance in which we would roster Jimenez, even if it were a one game slate and he was pitching for both teams. He is 1-2 with a 6.04 ERA in his last five starts vs DET.
LHB have a .999 OPS against Jimenez. Lots of solid BvP numbers for the Tigers against Jimenez: Victor Martinez has a .353 avg with 4 HR, JD Martinez has a .357 avg with 2 HR, Justin Upton has 6 extra-base hits in 30 at-bats. Alex Avila, Miguel Cabrera and Jose Iglesias have all homered against Jimenez as well.
* Fulmer: 4-1, 2.54 ERA/1.00 WHIP – The man is a quality start machine, as he’s done so in all seven starts this season. Fulmer should benefit with the wind blowing in, but he does have a 4.76 ERA in two career starts vs BAL.
RHB are hitting .265 (100+ points higher than LHB are) against Fulmer and the O’s have plenty of options in that demographic to attack him with. Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop have both homered against Fulmer. Chris Davis homered twice last night and that gives him 4 over the last three games.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (Joe Biagini – R) @ ATLANTA BRAVES (Mike Foltynewicz – R)
***86 degrees at time of first pitch***
* Biagini: 1-1, 2.28 ERA/0.87 WHIP – The Jays probably won’t extend Biagini too long tonight as he’ll be making his third career start. He’s been exceptional at keeping runners off the bases so it might not be a bad idea to limit your Braves exposure here.
Freddie Freeman is usually a good idea to have, and tonight is no different – he’s got 4 HR in his last 8 games. Nick Markakis is also running hot with 11 hits in his last 26 plate appearances, but none of them have gone for extra bases. Dansby Swanson has finally broken through his season-long slump with 8 hits over the last six games.
* Foltynewicz: 1-4, 4.04 ERA/1.35 WHIP – He’s been solid with 4 quality starts in his last five tries. The Blue Jays have actually struggled a bit against RHP, but SunTrust Park isn’t the setting for Folty to test this theory.
LHB are hitting .290 against Folty this season and that is music to the ears of Justin Smoak, who is 9-for-22 with 2 doubles, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 8 BB and 8 runs over the last seven games. The rest of these Jays are pretty interesting in this hitter’s haven, especially Devon Travis who is 10-for-25 with 8 doubles and 6 RBI over the last seven games.
BOSTON RED SOX (Rick Porcello – R) @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (Mike Leake – R)
***18-20 MPH winds blowing out to left field***
* Porcello: 2-5, 4.01 ERA/1.34 WHIP – Notched a quality start in 7 of his 8 tries and 29 strikeouts in his last 25.2 innings.
RHB are hitting .321 with 6 doubles and 5 HR against Porcello this season – Yadi Molina, Jedd Gyorko and Randall Grichuk have all been running hot over the last week.
* Leake: 4-2, 1.94 ERA/0.99 WHIP – He’s had a quality start each time out, but that’ll certainly be put to the test tonight against the Red Sox. I doubt we’ll see Leake post many strikeouts since the Red Sox have the lowest K-rate (17.4%) against RHP.
Mookie Betts is the hottest Sox hitter lately with 3 HR, 9 RBI and 7 runs over the last six games; he’s got some massive fantasy point totals as well over the last eight games.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Zack Eflin – R) @ TEXAS RANGERS (Andrew Cashner – R)
* Eflin: 0-0, 2.81 ERA/1.00 WHIP – Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in five starts this season, and it’s even more impressive that he’s done it against quality offenses (NYM, ATL, LAD, CHC, SEA). I’m not just saying this because of my fandom here, but this could be a sneaky spot to use Eflin as your SP2.
RHB have been hitting almost 100 points better against Eflin than LHB this season. Elvis Andrus, Mike Napoli, Delino DeShields and Jonathan Lucroy/Robinson Chirinos all fit the profile.
* Cashner: 0-3, 2.43 ERA/1.35 WHIP – Surprisingly, he’s been very good this season and has 4 quality starts in his last five tries. The strikeouts aren’t coming frequently for Cashner (17 Ks in 33.1 innings) so I’m not liking him as a pitching option, but it will certainly make me weary of using Phillies bats.
Aaron Altherr has cooled off a bit, but he’s still a fine option on any given night. Tommy Joseph has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball with 7 hits (2 doubles, 2 HR) over the last five games.
CINCINNATI REDS (Scott Feldman – R) @ CHICAGO CUBS (Kyle Hendricks – R)
***21 MPH winds blowing out to left field***
* Feldman: 2-3, 3.59 ERA/1.22 WHIP – Aside from a couple of starts, he’s actually been pretty good overall. I don’t see him being good enough to shut down this Cubs team but I won’t have as much exposure to them, even though the weather is pro-hitter.
The Cubs bats balled outrageous last night, even though they were incredibly popular…there was a good reason for that, and it showed. Kris Bryant is the best high-end option while Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Javier Baez are all solid $/PT plays. Whoever is catching, Willson Contreras or Miguel Montero, is a fine option as well.
* Hendricks: 2-2, 3.40 ERA/1.21 WHIP – 3 quality starts in his last four tries, but tonight could be a difficult task with the warm weather and winds blowing out at an alarming rate.
Joey Votto has an excellent BvP history against Hendricks, going 7-for-11 with 2 HR. Adam Duvall has some short-term success against Hendricks as well, going 4-for-8 with a HR.
COLORADO ROCKIES (German Marquez – R) @ MINNESOTA TWINS (Ervin Santana – R)
***75% chance of rain, PPD likely***
* Marquez: 1-2, 4.88ERA/1.29 WHIP – Coming off a masterful performance against the Cubs (3 H/1 BB, 0 R, 8 Ks in 8 innings). Marquez does have 2 quality starts in 4 tries, but those other two starts were absolutely atrocious (13 ER in 10 innings).
Brian Dozier (6-for-16, double, HR, 5 BB) has done a great job of getting on base these last five games.
* Santana: If it weren’t for Dallas Keuchel, Santana would likely be the frontrunner for AL Cy Young. He’s only got 41 Ks in 54 innings, but the Rockies do have the eighth-highest K-rate against RHP this season and that could help boost things a bit.
Carlos Gonzalez is 8-for-15 (3 doubles, HR, 6 Ks) against Santana.
NEW YORK YANKEES (Michael Pineda – R) @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS (Jason Vargas – L)
***18-21 MPH winds blowing out to center field***
* Pineda: 3-2, 3.27 ERA/0.99 WHIP – He’s been excellent all season and he should do well against the worst offense in baseball. This start, however, does not come without some caution as there will be massive winds blowing out tonight. I will like Pineda much more if Austin Romine is behind the plate.
I’ve made too many mistakes earlier this season playing these Royals bats, but there’s not much of a benefit in doing it today against Pineda. Sure, the wind is blowing out at a rapid pace but the Royals still have to make solid contact with the ball.
* Vargas: 5-1, 1.01 ERA/0.92 WHIP – Just like Pineda, Vargas has been very solid because he’s been able to keep the ball down in the zone. The Yankees are one of the best offenses in baseball but I do think their upside will be limited against Vargas. While they could be limited, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are going to strikeout a ton.
Chris Carter is swinging the bat well lately, but tonight is probably not the night to go back to him. He’s 1-for-15 (5 BB, 9 Ks) in his career against Vargas. Matt Holliday, Aaron Hicks and Chase Headley have all had decent short-term success against him as well.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (Miguel Gonzalez – R) @ LOS ANGELES ANGELS (Matt Shoemaker – R)
***62-65 degree temperatures during the game***
* Gonzalez: 3-3, 3.83 ERA/1.41 WHIP – There was a time when we were excited about Gonzalez this season, and I’m not sure what we were thinking. He’s allowed 6 or more hits in five of his seven starts and allowed a total of 13 ER in his last 17.2 innings.
The Angels bats have been somewhat dangerous here of late, especially their main man Mike Trout who has 4 HR in the last six games. Yunel Escobar going to the DL was a big hit for them, but look to see who will be at the top of the Angels order. LHB are hitting .291 against Gonzalez this season- Kole Calhoun has been struggling mightily, but he did go yard a couple nights ago.
* Shoemaker: 2-2, 4.50 ERA/1.25 WHIP – Believe it or not, but Shoemaker is actually in the best spot of any player on today’s slate. The White Sox have the seventh-highest K-rate and the second-lowest wRC+ rating (74) against RHP this season. That being said, I do have some concerns about Shoemaker’s longevity tonight since he’s gone 6 innings or fewer in all but one of his eight starts.
Leury Garcia is my new favorite human being in baseball so I’ll probably have some exposure to him batting leadoff for the White Sox. He’s 10-for-25 (2 doubles, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 7 runs) over the last six games. Jose Abreu and Melky Cabrera have both hit Shoemaker well over the course of their careers.
OAKLAND A’S (Jesse Hahn – R) @ SEATTLE MARINERS (Christian Bergman – R)
***55-59 degree temperatures during the game***
* Hahn: 1-2, 2.74 ERA/1.17 WHIP – When I think of exceptional pitching options, Hahn’s name doesn’t surface to the top…but maybe it should. He’s posted quality starts in all but one start this season and had some decent strikeout totals to go along with it. It’s unfortunate that he’s facing one of the better hitting teams in the league so this may be a guy to watch from afar tonight, but also take some mental notes.
RHB have been hitting Hahn better (.239) than LHB, but it’s not that great. He’s only allowed 1 HR in 42.2 innings this season, and you would think a lot of that has to do with the fact that he pitches in Oakland…he’s only had two of his seven appearances there.
* Bergman: 0-1, 4.15 ERA/1.15 WHIP – Really not much that I know about Bergman, but he should be an easy fade candidate even going against the A’s.
RHB hit .358 against Bergman from 2014-16 with 19 HR and a .988 OPS. Khris Davis and Rajai Davis could be our go-to guys here.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (Matt Garza – R) @ SAN DIEGO PADRES (Jhoulys Chacin – R)
***60-degree temperature during the game***
* Garza: 2-0, 2.66 ERA/1.18 WHIP – Did Garza find himself once again? Perhaps, but I’m just not ready to trust he’s regained everything back in such a short amount of time. If you ever did take a chance on Garza, tonight would be the perfect night to do so against the Padres at Petco Park and a brisk temperature that will negatively affect the ball flight.
Not too interested in Padres bats, but Wil Myers and Austin Hedges always have HR upside.
* Chacin: 4-3, 5.12 ERA/1.36 WHIP – Ladies and gentlemen, (possibly) my favorite pitcher of the night. Those numbers you initially see right there are certainly not appealing, but you have to dig a little deeper and look at his numbers at home: 2-0, 0.45 ERA – 20 IP, 10 H/5 BB, 1 ER, 13 Ks. The strikeouts aren’t great, but 1 ER in 20 innings is insane.
One thing that will make Chacin better tonight, is if Eric Thames and/or Travis Shaw somehow don’t find their way into the lineup.
JOIN US!
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Basketball MLB tools in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our MLB DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP Membership and join the Army today! You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team to join!