This should be a great week of football. There are some great games that could change the outcome of conferences. There are some great value spots to attack on this slate as well as some high total games. Lets get into it!
Clemson (-17) @ Florida State ITT 34
Clemson has completed the toughest part of their schedule and now travel to Florida State to play a better top 25 defense in Florida State. That being said, they are still giving up good yardage through the air. Trevor Lawrence finally played his first full game of the season and attempted 39 passes last week. This is another week where I think he could put up good numbers and is a GPP option. Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross, and Hunter Renfrow have all been in the mix with plenty of targets with Lawrence under center. I would rank them in that order this week but I think Renfrow could be the lowest owned of the three. Travis Etienne is a GPP play for me this week that I will be underweight on. If you take out the Syracuse game where Lawrence got hurt, he is averaging just under 12 carries a game, and has been bailed out by his touchdown production. Florida State has a surprisingly stout run defense giving up just over 110 yards a game and just under 3 yards per rush. They have held opponents to under 100 yards 4 times this season. Therefore, I will be looking at other places at RB this week.
TCU (-14) @ Kansas ITT 31.5
TCU has been in the news this week with WR KaVontae Turpin being dismissed from the team and starting QB Shawn Robinson having season-ending surgery. The new starting QB will be Michael Collins, played over half the game against OU. In that time, he threw for 142 yards and 2 TDs and rushed for 36 more. With Turpin gone, Collins will be airing it out to leading WR Jalen Reagor who I think could thrive against this weak Kansas pass defense. Taye Barber will be the other receiver I am interested in with no official word of who will step up with Turpin being out. I think this is a week to fade the running game as well. Robinson is a dual-threat quarterback so he can use his feet, and on top of that, this is an RBBC.
Arizona State @ USC (-6.5) ITT 30.25
USC is a team that is very balanced in their run/pass splits and is going up against a weaker defense this week in Arizona State. QB JT Daniels is yet to clear concussion protocol as of Friday and might not play this week. If he is out, Jack Sears would start for the Trojans. I personally don’t want any part of these QBs with the question marks and the variance that they give. Aca’Cedric Ware and Stephen Carr have emerged as the leading backs in an RBBC, but with that committee, both are very much GPP plays for me. With the question marks at QB, the receivers will also be GPP only this week. Tyler Vaughs would be my go-to on DK as he is the possession receiver that is most heavily targeted. Michael Pittman Jr. and Amon-Ra St. Brown are both deep threats that can make explosive plays as well. With so much in question on this Trojan team, I will be mostly fading them this week.
Kansas State @ Oklahoma (-24) ITT 44
Oklahoma has been great all year for DFS and will continue to be at home against Kansas State. QB Kyler Murray is a Heisman hopeful and for good reason. This past week he had his worst DFS week since week 1, at just under 30 DK points. That being said, he is the most expensive player on this slate but in cash, it is hard to fade him. Oklahoma has not had a great running game since Rodney Anderson has been out, but Kennedy Brooks came on strong the past few games culminating in an 18 carry 168-yard performance last week. He is very cheap this week at $5,000 on DK and I do not see how you can fade him in cash games. Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb are the top 2 receivers for Murray and consistently the at the top of the DFS leaderboard. Brown had a touchdown in every game this year prior to last week and I would not be surprised if he got back into the end zone this week. Lee Morris is a great value play on OU, with receiving 5 touchdowns in the last 3 games. I do not like that variance in cash but for GPPs he could be a great pivot off the top 2 receivers.
South Florida (+7) @ Houston ITT 33.5
South Florida takes on Houston in the highest totaled game on the slate. Houston is the 16th ranked S&P+ rushing defense and the 109th ranked S&P+ passing defense, therefore I want to attack the Houston secondary. Blake Barnett has had a very up and down season after starting hot with a few games under 16 DK points. The past 2 weeks Barnett has had over 20 DK points, but he is the 3rd most expensive QB this week. I would much rather pay up to Kyler Murray than go with Barnett. At RB, Jordan Cronkite has had a great year but is the 4th most expensive at his position this week. With his production, he has to be considered but I would consider him a GPP only play as he is facing a good run D and could be game flowed out. The way I really want to use South Florida is with their receivers. Tyre MCants and Randall St. Felix are both great cash plays this week at their prices with their production. If you are looking for a GPP pivot, Mitchell Wilcox is a great choice that is a tight end that has both boom and bust weeks. I could see him getting some opportunities in a shootout though.
South Florida @ Houston (-7) ITT 40.5
Houston has a high powered offense that loves to air it out. This week it goes up against a top 25 S&P+ passing defense which should prove to be a great matchup. D’Eriq King has proven to be matchup proof this year with 5 games over 40 DK points this year, and he is not the most expensive QB this week. King can get it done through the air and on the ground and I look for him to have a huge game in the biggest game of UH’s season thus far. With King being such a big part of the run game, I don’t like to use any of the RBs for Houston. I do however love the receiving corps for King. Marquez Stevenson is the most targeted receiver and a deep threat for King. Although he is expensive, I think Stevenson could be used a ton in this game. Courtney Lark and Keith Corbin are the other 2 receivers that are most targeted and I would love to stack either of the 2 with King. Here is the link to a great Sports Illustrated article about the UH offense.
Kentucky @ Missouri (-7) ITT 30.5
Missouri has been a great team outside of conference play but has not been the same in the SEC. This week, against a top 5 S&P+ defense, they will be GPP only across the board for me. QB Drew Lock has averaged over 35 DK points in 4 non-conference games, and under 10 in 3 SEC games. He has a moderate price this week but I only want him if I am going to MME. The running game is still a committee for Mizzou with Damarea Crockett and Larry Rountree III splitting the production. Rountree III is priced up after a 9 carry 3 touchdown game and I do not think that will happen against Kentucky and I will be fading him this week for that reason. Albert Okwuegbunam is priced way up as well after a huge game against Memphis as is Jalen Knox. With several other receivers out I do not hate the plays but they are not the best values this week.
Week 9 Lineup Construction
Cash
My approach to cash is generally the same every slate. I want to get 2 QBs, 3 RBs, and 3 WRs. This might waver on smaller slates but in general, this is what I am going for. If I am paying down for a QB, I want to make sure that it is a dual-threat QB that can get points with their feet as well as their arm. If I am paying down at RB and WR, I want opportunity, whether that is in total rushes or targets. I generally prefer to pay up at for one QB and for RB’s and to try to find value in the WR position.
This week is a week I really want an elite QB paired with a value QB. At the top, there are guys that could easily put up 40 points and be very high owned. In cash I just want to jump on that chalk and move on. There are several value QBs that could easily put up 4x value down as cheap as the $5k range and up to the $7k range. This is a week that I will be fading the most expensive RBs for the ones under $8500. I this there is plenty of value to be had that can easily be as productive as the most expensive RBs. At WR, I will be looking for mid-range value. While I don’t love anything under $4k there is a lot in that $4k-$5.5k range that I think can carry you across the finish line.
GPP
The more I look into the winning lineups of top GPPs the more it shows me that we should generally be using a quarterback in our super-flex positions. While this may seem obvious, it has proven true time and time again in these top GPP lineups. On top of that, the flex position should be used for a wide receiver most of the time. In about 90% of top 10 lineups in the main DK GPP, a pass catcher has been in the flex. Most of the top lineups pair a pass catcher with each of their 2 quarterbacks for a 2-way stack, and I think this is also the way to approach the DK GPP lineup construction. While I do not want an all chalk lineup, I am not too concerned with the chalk as you can see, a few pivots with some higher owned players can still win you big.
This week there is a ton of value just under the top tier of players. At each position, there is a $1500-$2500 price reduction after the first 3-5 players and there isn’t a huge drop in opportunity at each of those places. I do think that the top 2 QBs could be in the winning lineups this week as they both could run for multiple TDs on top of using their arms. That is some chalk I am willing to eat. I think it could be great to go down to a Felipe Franks or a Manny Wilkens for GPP. There are some great RBs in the $5k range that can also differentiate your lineup and allow you to pay up at receiver this week. I don’t think you necessarily have to have the top receivers but if you have several of the higher priced ones stacked with your QBs you will have a different lineup.