This is another week full of conference games and lower overall totals. Luckily one of those games is the highest total on the main slate this year with UCF and Memphis sitting at an O/U of 81. Our friends over at beat the bookie have some great takes on the games this weekend! Be sure to check the out! Let’s take a look at all the teams that have an implied team total over 30 for this weeks main slate.
Tennessee @ Auburn (-15) ITT 30.75
Auburn is a team that is very good at football but not great for fantasy purposes. They are the top defensive S&P+ team but rank 93 on offense. They have turned their run game into an RBBC, not totally over 100 yards as a team in the past 3 games. QB Jarrett Stidham has had a very pedestrian year not yet reaching 17.5 DK points in a game. The 2 targets I have on this team are deep GPP plays. Receivers Ryan Davis and Darius Slayton have emerged as the top threats. Davis had 10 targets last game and Slayton has 20 targets over the last 2 games. As a whole, I am off of Auburn until they prove to have a competent offense.
Oklahoma State (-7.5) @ Kansas State ITT 34.25
Oklahoma State had high hopes going into this season, but has dropped 2 of their past 3 games in conference. Even with these falls, Oklahoma State has the 14th ranked offense according to S&P+. Quarterback Taylor Cornelius is always in play, especially against a Kansas State team that has a below average defense. The Wildcats are 99th in total rushing yards, giving up over 200 per game and this bodes great for running back Justice Hill. Hill has a touchdown in his past 5 games and 55 rushing attempts the past 2 weeks. At receiver, Oklahoma State has a plethora of goods. Tylan Wallace is by far the top option with over 10 targets a game and 4 touchdowns on the year. Tyron Johnson has come on strong in the past 2 weeks with 11 targets and 3 total touchdowns. Landon Wolf has been great since starting into the starter role 2 games ago with 15 targets. Johnson and Wolf are great values this week. Dillon Stoner was seen as a top option for this team coming into the season but injury and poor results have seen Stoner’s production fall. I would consider him a GPP play.
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame (-21) ITT 38
Notre Dame has been on a role since changing to Ian Book at quarterback. In the 3 games since Book has started the Fighting Irish are averaging over 45 points a game and almost 300 yards a game passing. Book has another great matchup this week against a Pittsburgh team that is just decent against the pass giving up over 300 yards 2 out of the last 3 games. After being suspended to start the season, running back Dexter Williams has been on fire the last 2 games, averaging over 165 yards each week against 2 stout run defenses. This week, he gets to feast on a team that is bottom 25 in the country against the run. Since Book has started, Miles Boykin has become a target machine. He has 27 targets in the last 2 weeks and has taken over the lead receiver role. Chase Claypool has also benefited by the change with 17 targets in the last 3 weeks.
Minnesota @ Ohio State (-28.5) ITT 44
Ohio State is one of the teams that controls its own destiny to the college football playoffs. They will be favored in every game the rest of the season and this week is no different. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins has been superb this season with over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns a game. JK Dobbins has taken over the lead back role with a season high 26 carries last week. Minnesota has been pretty tough against the run this year but I don’t mind him at his price. The top receiver for the Buckeyes is Parris Cambpell who has been a beast, and is priced like it. The other two receivers I consider for Ohio State are KJ Hill and Austin Mack, both of whom are reasonably priced.
Washington (-3) @ Oregon ITT 30.25
This is a game that could easily become a shootout and one I am really thinking about stacking for GPPs. Both teams have top 30 S&P+ offenses and have the ability to move the ball. Quarterback Jake Browning is in a great spot this week and will be sneaky in GPPs this week. He is not a flashy quarterback but at his low price, he has been rather productive the past 2 weeks. Oregon is also giving up over 250 yards through the air a game. If he gets into a shootout, he could explode. Oregon has had a sneakily good rush defense but given his ability to rack up the touches, I like running back Myles Gaskin this week. He gets around 15-25 carries a week depending on the game plan and I could see a scenario where the Huskies try to slow this game down. The only receiver that interests me for Washington is Aaron Fuller. He is averaging over 9 targets a week and could definitely be stacked with Browning in GPPs.
Baylor @ Texas (-14) ITT 37.5
Texas has been thrust back into the top 10 for the first time in years thanks to a huge win over Oklahoma. This week they take on a Baylor team that has been very good on offense but is bottom 25 on defense. This is another game that I could see turning into a shootout in a letdown week for Texas. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger had the game of his career last week with 5 total touchdowns. He is a dual threat QB that can obviously blow up but at his price he is GPP only for me this week. Keontay Ingram has taken over the lead running back spot from Tre Watson over the last few weeks and he is very cheap. This is a spot I would love to attack as Baylor is giving up 187 yards on the ground a game. Starting receivers Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Collin Johnson are in play in all formats, with Lil’Jordan being my favorite at similar prices. A value play on this Texas team is receiver Devin Duvernay. He has 15 targets in the past two weeks and is sitting at $3,600 on Draftkings.
Michigan State @ Penn State (-13.5) ITT 33.75
Penn State comes off a bye week and a devastating one point loss to Ohio State to take on Michigan State at home. Michigan State has an interesting defense, ranking #1 in rushing defense but bottom 10 in passing defense. They have yet to give up over 63 yards rushing. in a game and are giving up 1.3 yards per carry, so I will be fading running back Miles Sanders. That being said, dual threat quarterback Trace McSorely will be just fine against this defense that is allowing 320 passing yards a game. I look for him to have a huge day through the air and a decent day on the ground as well. The biggest problem for McSorely has been drops by receivers. KJ Hamler and Juwan Johnson lead these receiving corps with each getting around 6 targets each game. While I do not want them in cash, this could be a huge GPP spot going up against such a bad pass defense.
UCF (-4.5) @ Memphis ITT 42.75
UCF has been one of the most productive DFS teams this year and this is the biggest game of the season for them. This is the one road game this year where they face a team that is considered even somewhat elite. Memphis and UCF have the 11th and 12th ranked S&P+ offenses and this game is projected to be a shootout. Quarterback McKenzie Milton has been surprisingly boom or bust this season with 3 games over 40 DK Points but 2 under 20. This is a game that I think he needs to shine in for Central Florida to win though but at his price I lean GPP on him. Memphis has given up almost 200 yards a game on the ground and that is one spot Central Florida might look to attack. Running back Adrian Killins has gotten more involved the last 2 weeks, accounting for over 100 yards each week. He is at a great price to get some exposure to this game. Otis Anderson is also a great GPP pivot play this week. Anderson was used close to the end zone last week and has almost 4 targets a game. Gabriel Davis, Dredrick Snelson and Tre Nixon are the top three receivers that Milton looks to and they are all in play this week. I believe all three will be high owned this week and for good reason. A great GPP strategy would be to stack 2 of these with McKenzie.
UCF @ Memphis (+4.5) ITT 38.25
This is the other half of the shootout that has an astounding total sitting at 81 points! QB Brady White starts this Memphis offense but he has not been too efficient of late, with no games over 20 Dk points in the last 3 weeks. Where I really want to attack with this Memphis team is the running game. Darrell Henderson is the top running back in the country averaging over 155 yards on the ground and 2 touchdowns a game. He will be pivotal in slowing down UCF. Behind Henderson is Patrick Taylor Jr. and Tony Pollard. Both of these guys are very cheap and have the ability to go bonkers. Pollard is my favorite value of the week as he is the 3rd most targeted player in the pass game for the Tigers. The only 2 viable pass catchers for the Tigers are primary receiver Damonte Coxie and the second leading receiver Pop Williams. Coxie has over 7 targets a game and could have a huge game here in a shootout. Williams has over 4 a game and could have a big game as well.
Week 7 Lineup Construction
Cash
My approach to cash is generally the same every slate. I want to get 2 QBs, 3 RBs and 3 WRs. This might waver on smaller slates but in general this is what I am going for. If I am paying down for a QB, I want to make sure that it is a dual threat QB that can get points with their feet as well as their arm. If I am paying down at RB and WR, I want opportunity, whether that is in total rushes or targets. I generally prefer to pay up at for one QB and for RB’s and to try to find value in the WR position.
This week in cash I am looking to make a balanced lineup. Draftkings is begging us to play Henderson but at his price it’s almost impossible to make a cash viable lineup. My favorite lineups I have made so far this week include 2 of the whole middle range of QBs (think Browning at $7100 up to McSorley at $9200) and then taking some of the top (but not the very top) priced RBs and WRs. I also had a few value plays with upside in there in my builds. This allowed me to get to players like Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Dexter Williams, the 3 UCF receivers and Justice Hill without worrying about where I was going to deep punt. I actually think if you fade the QBs over $10K and Henderson, there is a very easy path to a great cash lineup this week.
Week 6 CFB $150K Run-Pass Option Special winning lineup
GPP
The more I look into the winning lineups of top GPPs the more it proves that we should always be using a quarterback in our super-flex positions. While this may seem obvious, it has proven true time and time again in these top GPP lineups. On top of that, the flex position should be used for a wide receiver most of the time. In about 90% of top 10 lineups in the main DK GPP, a pass catcher has been in the flex. On top of that, most of the top lineups pair a pass catcher with each of their 2 quarterbacks for a 2-way stack, and I think this is also the way to approach the DK GPP lineup construction. While I do not want an all chalk lineup, I am not too concerned with the chalk as you can see, a few pivots with some over 25% owned players can still win you $30,000.
This week, DK pivoted early in the week and took out a game in the path of the hurricane and added UCF-Memphis, which will be heavy chalk. There are 2 ways you can approach this. One is a full game stack and punt your other positions. The way DK has priced this game up, if you take both top plays in Milton and Henderson that leaves you about $5K for each remaining position. I hate what this forces you to do with your remaining lineup and it’s not something I will be doing unless I am going to MME.
The way I am starting to approach my builds this week in my smaller GPPs and SE contests is with a stud QB and one of his primary receivers and a mid to low priced QB with one of his primary receivers. This sets a nice base for my lineup if both of these pairs gets going. With my studs, I am not worried about ownership at all. But with the value pair, I want to consider ownership more. This is a place that can differentiate your lineup and get you a ton of leverage on the competition.
After QB pairs are established, this is where you can go a few ways. You can pay up a little at running back and punt wide receivers or you can now balance your lineup with some value plays. I personally love the lineups that I am making this week where I have a value play or 2 and complete the lineup with some solid upside plays.