Now that we are getting deeper into conference play, the totals are coming down a little. With that, DraftKings has given us a 10 game main slate with 10 conference games. According to our new DFS Army Beat the Bookies site, there are 8 teams with implied team totals over 30 and those are the teams I want to focus on to build around. Be sure to check out Beat the Bookies! They have great information for both sports betting and DFS as well as daily picks!
Alabama (-34.5) @ Arkansas ITT 47.75
Alabama is a huge favorite going into Arkansas this week. The biggest problem with targeting players at Alabama is that they are so packed with talent, almost every position is split including QB and RB. This week they are going up against an Arkansas defense that has sneakily been top 10 against the run but is 87th ranked against the pass, giving up 250 yards a game. For those reasons, I will be fading the RBs and QBs but I will be getting a good piece of the receivers from this Crimson Tide Team. The main two receivers I want to target are Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III. Jeudy has been the lead receiver with 26 targets and 19 receptions. Ruggs III has 16 receptions on 20 targets and has scored in each of the last 4 games. Another few receivers to keep in mind; DeVonta Smith, who has 21 targets on the year but has only gotten into the end zone twice; and Jaylen Waddle who has 11 catches on 14 targets and had 2 touchdowns last week against Louisiana – Lafayette.
Kansas @ West Virginia (-28.5) ITT 44.75
West Virginia is on the slate again and again we want to target this DFS beast. Will Grier has lived up to his hype this year and is one of the stud QBs on this slate. He is also the most expensive. He is a great cash QB and, although he will be chalky is definitely GPP viable if you can afford him. A sneaky GPP pivot on this WV team is running back Kennedy McCoy. McCoy has had an up and down year but will be going up against a Kansas team that is giving up 175 yards on the ground each game. The Mountaineers have 3 receivers to target, David Sills V, Gary Jennings Jr. and Marcus Simms. Each of the prime pass catchers has over 28 targets and 22 receptions. With a team that loves to air it out, if you choose to play Grier I would definitely stack him with one of his pass catchers.
Texas @ Oklahoma (-7.5) ITT 33.75
Oklahoma comes into the Red River Showdown undefeated and with an undefeated record and a clear path to the playoffs. This is always a fun game and this year should not be an exception. Quarterback Kyler Murray has been another Heisman frontrunner and is another one of our studs on the slate. He is as elusive as any player in the country, making plays both in the air and on the ground which gives him an incredible ceiling. Trey Sermon, the Sooners running back, has not been very effective this year outside of 1 game against Army. Texas has a top 25 rushing defense and I think he will have a tough time again this week. The two viable receivers for Oklahoma are CeeDee Lamb and Marquise Brown. Brown has excellent quickness and works great underneath while Lamb is the bigger receiver and a great route runner. Both play a pivotal role in this offense.
Maryland @ Michigan (-17.5) ITT 35.25
Michigan is a team that is looking to break back into the playoff discussion after a week 1 loss to Notre Dame. This week they face a Maryland team that has had an up and down year but comes into this game with a 3-1 record. Michigan loves to run the ball, running nearly 62% of the time, and they have not completed more than 15 passes since that week 1 loss. For that reason, I will be fading quarterback Shea Patterson. Karan Higdon, the lead back for the Wolverines, has been on a tear the past 3 games he has played in averaging over 25 DK points. The past 2 games, this has been aided by the injury to backup Chris Evans. Evans is listed as questionable and if he plays, he could be a great option at $5,000. If he is still out, Higdon could have a monster day. The only two receivers worth mentioning on the Wolverines are Donovan Peoples-Jones and Nico Collins, and they are only GPP viable as neither has more than 23 targets or 17 receptions on the year.
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State (-10.5) ITT 31.5
Oklahoma State has had a very good season so far aside from one stinker. In 4 wins, the Cowboys are averaging over 50 points and 580 yards. Iowa State comes into the game with the 26th ranked total defense, but one that is very similar ranked to the Boise State team that Oklahoma State put 44 points on 3 weeks ago. Taylor Cornelius has been able to be very productive for DFS purposes scoring over 30 points on 3 separate occasions this year. He has a few duds as well and has had some issues with interceptions but he would make a great GPP play and is right on the edge of cash viable. Running back Justice Hill has turned into a stud, with 4 games over 100 yards and at least 1 TD in every game. The pass catchers for the Cowboys have been stellar, led by Tylan Wallace with 51 targets. Tyron Johnson has been very boom or bust, but is definitely GPP viable. The inside receivers for Oklahoma State are Dylan Stoner and Landon Wolf. Wolf just moved into the starting role and Stoner was hurt last week leading to a huge week for Wolf. If Stoner is still injured this week, I will be very heavy in shares of Wolf, who is still underpriced at $4,200.
Clemson (-17) @ Wake Forest ITT 39.5
Last week, Clemson chose a new starting quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, who was hurt early in the game against Syracuse leaving them in a bind. Luckily for us, Lawrence has already been declared fit to start this week. After burning so many last week, I can definitely see Lawrence having a low ownership and I think this is something we should attack in GPPs. Clemson is facing a Wake Forest team that is ranked 90th against the pass and 108th against the run. Running back Travis Etienne, without previous dual threat QB Kelly Bryant eating into his runs (and with the Lawrence injury) went for 27 rushes for over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns last week. While I don’t think we will see quite as many rushes with Lawrence healthy, this is a smash spot for Etienne against a weak Demon Deacon defense. If Lawrence is indeed healthy, I think that could bode well for the pass catchers in this offense. The two primary targets are Tee Higgins and Amari Rodgers, who each have over 25 targets. Two deeper GPP plays you can take a look at are Hunter Renfrow and Justyn Ross. Renfrow is a beast of a receiver who should benefit greatly with a better passer, and Ross, although only having 9 receptions has 212 yards and 3 touchdowns on the year.
Florida State @ Miami (-12.5) ITT 31.75
Miami started a new quarterback as well last week with N’Kosi Perry and it was not great from a DFS standpoint. He only had to attempt 12 passes in the blowout win over North Carolina. This week he will face a much stiffer test and will have to use his arm a lot more. That being said, at $6,800, he has had success just 2 games ago and he is priced to a point where it would be well worth rostering him if you are multi-entering. Florida State has had a top 25 rush defense this year allowing only 114 yards on the ground per game. Between that and the time share, I will be fading this backfield. Jeff Thomas has been the top receiver over the year, but he has not done great with Perry slinging the rock, with only 2 receptions. I would much rather look towards Mike Harley and tight end Brevin Jordan who have both done better the past few games with the new quarterback.
Indiana @ Ohio State (-25) ITT 43.75
After a scare last week at Penn State, Ohio State looks primed to continue their run towards the playoffs. This has been a great team to target for DFS, with a fast paced offense running about 80 plays a game with pretty even pass run splits. Indiana has quietly had a great defensive year and is even top 10 against the pass. With that being said, they haven’t faced a quarterback like Dwayne Haskins. Haskins has thrown for just under 300 yards and just under 4 touchdowns a game. Haskins’ primary target has been Perris Campbell who has 26 receptions and 5 touchdowns. Austin Mack and KJ Hill have both also been very involved with 29 targets each. While this is a split backfield, the split has greatly tilted towards JK Dobbins in the past few weeks. Dobbins has a rushing touchdown in 3 of the last 4 games and added one through the air last game. Even though he has not recently been efficient, I look for Ohio State to use the run to open up the pass against this Indiana team.
Week 6 Lineup Construction
Cash
My approach to cash is generally the same every slate. I want to get 2 QBs, 3 RBs and 3 WRs. This might waver on smaller slates but in general this is what I am going for. If I am paying down for a QB, I want to make sure that it is a dual threat QB that can get points with their feet as well as their arm. If I am paying down at RB and WR, I want opportunity, whether that is in total rushes or targets. I generally prefer to pay up at for one QB and for RB’s and to try to find value in the WR position.
This week, I want to try to lock in one of the stud QB’s (Grier, Murray, Haskins). From there, you have a decision to make. Do you want to lock in a mid-tier QB or do you want to go with a stud RB (Etienne, Hill, Higdon). If you go with a stud RB you are going to want to look for value for your super-flex QB. The two options I am looking at are Peyton Ramsey from Indiana and Felipe Franks from Florida. Neither are in smash spots but that is why they are at a value.
I personally don’t love the RB depth on this slate so I will be going with one of the stud RB’s in cash. Beyond that, I will be looking for value at RB. Again, I am looking for opportunities at a reduced price. These can include players such as Stevie Scott from Indiana that are huge underdogs or Chris Evans who is questionable coming into the week and, if he is cleared is at a reduced rate.
I generally try to find my value at the wide receiver position. It seems this is where players are most mis-priced for their possible production. I am looking for someone that gets plenty of targets and production. Some examples this week are Landon Wolf and Austin Mack. Be sure to look for my value article where I will share more values.
Week 5 $150K Run-Pass Option Special Winning Lineup
GPP
When looking over the top GPP lineups of the past couple of weeks, one thing really stood out to me. Most of the top 10 lineups had 2 QBs each stacked with one of their receivers. Many of these top lineups included a value QB. I think this is a very viable strategy and makes total sense seeing that if the WR goes off, you are locking in points at both positions. While I would try not to have too chalky of a lineup, I would not worry about fading it completely. Last week in the $150K DK contest, the winning lineup had 3 of the top 11 owned players. The second place team had 5 of the top 13 owned players. The main thing to look for is value players in smash spots.
This week, it will be much harder to make a balanced lineup. The two value quarterbacks mentioned above are great QBs to look to pair with their WRs. They will both be low owned due to their matchups. If going that route, I will want a stud QB and their WR in that lineup as well. To finish off this lineup I want either a stud RB or (I really like) WR with high upside and surround that with value. This is a great week for this studs and scrubs kind of approach. With a very top heavy QB and RB pool, DK is making you try to make a decision of which studs you want. Most people will try to shove in 2 top QBs and work a lineup around that, you don’t need to!
Also, make sure you keep an ear out for value to open up! When Ian Book first started for Notre Dame, he was under 5% owned and in the winning lineup in the top GPP. We will be around slack all week keeping everyone informed of up to the minute updates.