Week 9 Thursday Night CFB Preview!

This week we have some huge weekday slates that will be a lot of fun.  Thursday night brings us some fantastic Big 5 and Group of 5 games that have a wide range of totals.  From the defensive matchup of Appalachian State-Georgia Southern to the shootout that should be Toledo-Western Michigan, and everything in between, this slate looks like it could be the best weekday slate so far!

Before we start…

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Toledo @ Western Michigan (-6.5) Total 68

Toledo

Toledo travels to face first place Western Michigan in a game of awful defenses.  Western Michigan is 99^th against the run and 119^th against the pass in S&P+ rankings.  Toledo has been sharing quarterback duties between dual threat Mitchell Guadagni and pocket passer Eli Peters of late and neither has taken a command of the position.  Regardless of who is throwing the ball, Diontae Johnson has been the lead target.  In a game that could turn into a shootout, I think Cody Thompson and Jon’Vea Johnson could turn into value GPP plays.  The Rockets leading rusher, Shakif Seymour, could also have a big day against a team giving up over 170 yards a game on the ground.  While he is not my favorite RB on this slate due to sharing touches, he is in a good spot.

Western Michigan

Western Michigan comes into this game with an undefeated conference record and going up against one of the worst defenses in the country.  Toledo is giving up almost 30 DK points to QBs, over 40 DK points to RBs and over 40 DK points to WRs a game. Jon Wassink has thrown for just shy of 2000 yards this year and is going up against a defense allowing a bottom 10 288 yards a game through the air.  He is the 7^th most expensive QB on DK and I love him this game.  He is great to stack with his leading receiver, Jayden Reed for a cheaper QB-WR stack.  I also want some shares of RBs LeVante Bellamy and Jamauri Bogan.  Bellamy is the most expensive RB on the slate by far but Bogan has 15+ rushes each of the last 3 games as well and would be a great pivot.

 

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Ball State @ Ohio (-11)  Total 64

Ball State

Ball State is going up against a terrible defense as well this week in Ohio.  Even though they are favored, Ohio is the 124^th ranked S&P+ passing defense giving up over 288 yards passing a game.  Riley Neal has had a pretty good year this year and is a great value play this week.  If you go Neal, you can stack him with Riley Miller, Justin Hall or Corey Lacanaria.  Justin Hall had a big week last week and is therefore priced up on DK but I really like Miller as he is the long ball threat.   James Gilbert is the main back for this team and the only real rusher other than Neal.  On a slate that does not have an abundance of RBs, I am very interested in Gilbert against the 104^th ranked S&P+ rushing defense.  I think he could get plenty of work and is a great value.

Ohio

Ohio is another MAC team going up against another awful defense.  Dual-threat QB Nathan Rourke leads this Bobcats team that loves to run the ball but will air it out about 25 times a game as well.  He is in a great position but is one of the higher priced QBs on DK this slate.  Rourke’s leading receiver is huge touchdown threat Papi White.  White comes into this game off of a 3 touch 3 TD game so he is priced up but stacking him with Rourke could be a great GPP play.  Ohio’s running game has turned into an RBBC with AJ Ouellette and Maleek Irons splitting carries.  I really like this spot for either of these RBs, and they are both worth a look if you are going to MME.

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Baylor @ West Virginia (-14) Total 64

Baylor

Baylor faces a tough task traveling to West Virginia for a Thursday night showdown, but I do think there is some fantasy goodness here.  QB Corey Brewer had been very consistent before traveling to Texas last game.  He has had 2 weeks to prepare for this West Virginia defense but he is not my favorite play this week at QB.  I really like the position WR Jalen Hurd is in this week (and every week).  Hurd is the top target on this team and is also getting short yardage and goal line running back duties.  At his price, I will find a way to have him in my lineups.  If you are going to roster Brewer, Denzel Mims is a great pivot off of Hurd for GPPs.

West Virginia

West Virginia is the stud of this slate and also the team with the highest implied team total.  Will Grier is the best player on this slate, never mind his poor outing at Iowa State last game.  Baylor does not have a front 7 like Iowa State and I think he will pick this defense apart.  David Sills, Gary Jennings, and Marcus Simms are the leading receivers for Grier and all are great options.  They have had down weeks the past few outings and could go under-owned for that reason.  The backs for WV are very interesting.  Leddie Brown has been doing very well as a true freshman, yet he did not see a single carry against Iowa State.  There was no mention of him being injured and no reason given for his lack of carries.  He could be an interesting GPP option with people fading him for this reason (he could also give you a 0 for this reason).

 

 

Appalachian State (-8.5) @ Georgia Southern  Total 47

Appalachian State

Appalachian State is a team that loves to run the ball and should continue that against Georgia Southern.  QB Zac Thomas throws for under 200 yards a game and, with this low total, I really don’t like any pieces of the passing game for App State.  The one piece I really want is Darrynton Evans.  Leading rusher Jalin Moore is out for the foreseen future and with the first game as a starter, Darrynton got 26 carries.  With a slate that is in need of RBs, Evans will be in most of my lineups.

Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern is a triple option team that very rarely throws the ball.  QB Shai Werts is the leading rusher on the Eagles and will have to step up in this game against a great rush defense.  I really don’t like him for cash as he has had some really bad duds but I do think he could be a good GPP play.  The other player I want to look at on Georgia Southern is Wesley Fields.  Fields has double-digit DK points every game outside of Clemson and should be a decent option in a weak RB field.

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech (-3) Total 59

Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech is a triple option team that has had some great DFS results.  QB Taquon Marshall had a subpar game against Duke and was knocked out with an injury.  We will want to look and make sure he is playing but if he is I think he is fully in play this week.  RBs Jordan Mason and Jerry Howard are both great value-plays this week.  Both should see 10-12 runs each and at a price around $5,000 on DK, they could easily be a great value.

Virginia Tech

QB Ryan Willis has come on strong for the Hokies since starter Josh Jackson went down several weeks ago.  Willis will go up against a 102^nd ranked S&P+ pass defense in Georgia Tech that is giving up over 250 yards passing a game.  Willis’ top target, Damon Hazelton, is a great option this slate as his price is very reasonable for his production.  I think one of the safest RBs on this slate is Steven Peoples.  While he does have boom potential, Peoples should get around 15 carries and at least get you 10-12 points with a 20 point upside.  On a slate with several RBBCs, this is a rarity.