This week we get a full Thursday night slate! We get Georgia State traveling to Troy and Tulsa traveling to Houston. So far, only FanDuel has released this slate but DraftKings will not be far behind. These weeknight slates are a lot of fun to kick off the weekend! Georgia State and Troy will feature two Sun Belt teams that are coming off of big wins. Tulsa and Houston is an American Athletic Conference matchup between 2 teams whose recent programs have been trending in different directions. Want more in depth DFS models, articles and direct access to coaches?? Be sure to join us at DFS Army today! Use the code ZADE for a 10% discount!
Be sure to follow me on twitter @zadelstein!
Georgia State @ Troy (-15.5) Total 55
Georgia State
Georgia State is a team that has not been very good until their last game against Louisiana-Monroe. They scored 46 in that game, and 44 in the previous 3 games combined. When they have been successful, they are fully utilizing the RPO. On the year, QB Dan Ellington has thrown for 952 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also has rushed for 211 yards and 4 touchdowns. All 4 of those touchdowns have come in the last 3 games. Outside of Ellington, no running back averages even 10 rushes per game. On the receiving end, the main target is Penny Hart. Hart has 24 receptions on the year but only 1 touchdown. This is a team that I will sparingly use but for the most part, I won’t be touching them.
Troy
Troy comes into this game on a roll, winning their last 4 games while scoring over 40 points a game. They are averaging over 400 yards a game on offense with a 40 to 30 run to pass ratio. They go up against a terrible Georgia State defense, which is ranked 114th against the run and 100th against the pass. Troy is led by quarterback Kaleb Barker, who has 877 yards and 8 passing touchdowns on the year. He has had 3 games under 150 yards and 2 over 210 so he is very boom or bust. Barker can also use his legs when he needs to, having run for 150 yards and 3 touchdowns on the year. This volatility makes me lean off of him a little but he should have a solid day against such a weak defense. BJ Smith, the lead back for the Trojans, has 56 carries on the season and is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and 6 touchdowns. Against such a weak run defense, he is a piece I want in my pools. Deondre Douglas and Damion Willis are the 2 pass catchers I would like to target against this pass defense. Douglas has 23 receptions with 3 TDs and Willis has 18 receptions with 4 TDs. Look for Barker to air it out and open the running game against this weak defense, with plenty of fantasy production to go around.
Tulsa @ Houston (-18) Total 70
Tulsa
Tulsa has a fast-paced offense that likes to run the ball about twice as much as they throw the ball. In order to stay in the game with the high powered offense of Houston, they are going to have to one of two things (or both). Control the clock with the run, and score enough to keep up. Quarterback Luke Skipper is someone I am interested in for GPPs. He will be a pure contrarian pick but game log watchers will see he has faded every game this season. I think he will have a very low ownership but this is a Houston team that has given up at least 275 passing yards every game this season. Skipper also has the ability to run the ball with 150 yards rushing on the year. The best player by far on the Golden Hurricane’s is lead back Shamari Brooks. Brooks has 92 carries on the year and is averaging 4.1 yards per carry. I will have a sprinkling of the pass catchers for Tulsa as there are 4 who have similar production. Keylon Stokes, Justin Hobbs, Jarion Anderson, and Keenen Johnson all have between 13 and 16 receptions on the season. That is also how I would rank the receivers.
Houston
Houston is the team that we all want to attack on this slate, and it will be chalky for that reason. They are averaging over 50 points and 600 yards per game. This Tulsa team has a top 20 ranked passing defense, but they have not faced anything close to an offense like U of H. Tulsa is also bottom 25 in run defense. Houston’s attack starts with quarterback D’Eriq King. King is throwing for about 300 yards and 3.75 TDs a game. He also has 1.25 rushing TDs a game, making him responsible for 20 TDs on the year through 4 games. He will be the chalk of the slate but I will eat this chalk for the most part. While the Cougars run for 250 yards a game, they have 3 backs with over 20 carries and over 100 yards on the season, and no running back with over 32 carries and 201 yards. Where I want to attack with this Houston team outside of King is with the receivers. Marquez Stevenson is the top receiver with almost 400 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns through the air. He also has over 100 yards rushing on gimmick plays with a touchdown. Keith Corbin and Courtney Lark are the other 2 receivers I want to use. Both have over 200 yards receiving and are highly involved in this passing attack.
As always, the DFS Army coaching channels will be active all week. Every week throughout the CFB season, we will continue to produce superior content for all of our members, including value plays, player selection sheets, highlighted game deep dives and more. If you would like to take your DFS game to the next level in all sports including NFL, NBA, MLB, Nascar, MMA, Golf and more, check out the DFS Army today!