Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
Golf is back, although it never really went anywhere. The shortest off-season in all professional sports really never feels like an off-season with the majority of the world’s best players suiting up for the Ryder Cup.
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Safeway Open Preview
The tour kicks of its season at the Silverado Country Club in Napa, California. Silverado Country Club has played host to this event from 2015 onward for all of those looking at course history. The course itself is a par 72, measuring just over 7200 yards. While that is pretty short by PGA Tour standards the course plays much shorter when you take into account all four par threes are played at over 180 yards. The course features four par fives all measuring under 580 yards and eight par fours measuring under 450 yards.
The short course would make you think that bombers would have the advantage this week but we have seen the opposite play out over the years. Although neither stat directly correlates to success we see driving accuracy as one of the key indicators of success here. If players can stay in the fairway they give themselves a wedge or high iron in on most holes, which minimizes a bit of the advantage a long driver typically gets. Because of this I find myself leaning accuracy over distance off of the tee, but not using either indicator as a must have for the week.
Instead I am focused heavily on Shots Gained Approach, specifically from within 150 yards as we see more shots from this distance this week than typically do.
Finally, I think course history has shown to be a good indicator of success at this event. This could be amplified by the fact that the field is never the greatest and the top players should naturally come to the top but I do still think there is a trend that has emerged for certain guys at this event.
There are more stats that I will be focusing on this week but those are the big three that I will be looking for Green boxes of on our DFS Research Station. For the rest of the stats feel free to Direct Message me in our SlackChat or watch out for my final notes for the event.
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Interesting Plays
10K/11K and up on FanDuel
This range is incredibly interesting to me as I always find it harder to project chalk at the top end in tournaments that lack star power. I am incredibly interested to see what @dfsupnorth thinks in his VIP Chalk Donkey article. For me personally (and this can change) I am liking Moore and Grillo as my two favourites. I think right now Niemann will likely be the chalkiest play of the top range but as I said I will default to @dfsupnorth and his analysis on who the chalk will be. I will definitely be discussing this range more in our chat.
Brendan Steele – DK: $9000 FD: $10000
The back to back winner of this event sets up great for the course but there’s one problem, Steele was very bad to close out the 2018 season. Steele failed to finish inside of the top 60 in his final 6 events to close out the year and was losing strokes all over the place. It will be interesting to see if his past performance gives him ownership numbers or if players stay away because of the obvious recent concerns.
Low 8K Range on DraftKings (Harold Varner, Peter Uihlein, Russell Henley, Russell Knox)
Given the price points this week I could see this range becoming a bit of a dead zone where players avoid in order to fit their choice of top end players. Within this range none of the layers are coming in with great form and none have necessarily shown a record of consistency at this event. With that being said, I do think that both Russell Knox and Russell Henley are great course fits and guys that I will be going to in GPP’s in order to differentiate.
Chez Reavie – DK: $7600 FD: $9500
The price alone makes Reavie a cash game lock for me. Beyond the price we see four straight made cuts at this event and three straight finishes T22 or better for Reavie. The key stats line up for me as Reavie is outperforming the field and/or gaining strokes in just about every metric for me. Because of all of this and the price point we should expect to see Reavie as mega-chalk for the week on DraftKings which makes him an interesting player for GPP purposes. Do you eat the chalk or even go above the chalk in terms of ownership or do you decide to avoid Chez and hope he has another finish outside of the top ten and play lower end players in the same price point who have the upside to outperform Reavie?
Chesson Hadley – DK: $7200 FD: $9900
Much like Chez Reavie, Hadley is underpriced on DraftKings, which should mean he will likely be very chalky. I do think given what we have seen recently if Hadley is going to be chalky this week I am more than comfortable fading and spreading the ownership around to a few guys in this low 7k range.
Bill Haas – DK: $7100 FD: $8900
Haas is a sneaky course fit to me and has two top 20’s in his last two appearances at the Safeway Open. Haas has been able to enjoy an extended break after a not-so-great season. Although the price is probably fair given what we have seen recently out of Haas I do think he can come back rejuvenated with more than two months off. In this low 7k range Haas is a guy I will be targeting this week.
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As always, these are initial thoughts and not necessarily the plays I will be making. As the week goes on I will update my thoughts in our member SlackChat as well as discussing multiple other players and my thoughts for both Cash and GPP’s.
Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles
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