Prime Time SNF and MNF Slate
The prime-time slate is a mixture of playing guys in good spots and leveraging the ownership of the field. The larger the GPP that you enter the more you have to focus on ownership and begin to use game theory when crafting your lineups. If it’s a smaller field GPP, say 2,000 entries or less, you can focus mostly on the best player available and try to put together the most optimal lineup that you can. Keep this in mind when using this article and building lineups based on the size of the tournament you are entering.
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QUARTERBACK
Pat Mahomes is clearly an exceptional play on all formats. This game has a massive 56 point total and the Chiefs have a 31 point implied total. Going back to his 2017 week 17 start, a Mahomes led Chiefs offense has scored 27, 38, 42, 38, 27, 30, and 40 points. The Bengals are giving up nearly 295 yards passing per game and Mahomes has the highest floor and ceiling on the entire slate out of everyone and all positions. I’ll have a ridiculous amount of exposure to him and very little elsewhere.
Eli Manning gets to face the Falcons defense, or lack thereof, giving up nearly 350 yards passing per game and their opponent scores this year are; 18, 24, 43, 37, 41, 29. The latter four scores are all after they lost their top two defensive players. They also are giving up gobs of points to opposing running backs and Eli should get a bunch of free yardage by simply dumping it off to Saquon Barkley and then letting him create in open space. I will use very little of any quarterback outside of Mahomes but Eli is my favorite large field GPP in those massive tournaments. Anything single entry or several thousand or less should be Mahomes, in my humble opinion.
RUNNING BACK
Kareem Hunt is a great leverage play off the Mahomes passing game. I don’t think I want Hunt if using Mahomes but I suppose you’ll need to do things like this in massive GPPs. In small field GPPs I want to target Barkley if paying up here. Hunt has scored 14.50 FanDuel points or more in 5 straight games and has scored a touchdown in all 5 games.
Saquon Barkley is my favorite player on the entire slate not name Pat Mahomie (shout out to Geek). I think he’s a lock and load for anybody in a small GPP and he’s obviously a stud in all formats and all sites no matter what. Barkley has 100% of the rushing touchdowns this season for the Giants and a massive 83.4% of the team rushing yards (second RB on the slate is 64.4% – Joe Mixon).
He’s averaging 6 receptions for 62 yards receiving and now gets to face the team that has been the worst against RB’s since Week 3 of the NFL season. Oh boy!
Ito Smith continues to vulture touchdowns from Tevin Coleman as he has 3 TDs in three straight weeks. Over the last three games, Ito has 8 red zone carries for 3 TDs compared to Tevin Coleman having just 2 carries in the red zone. Ito won’t have a ton of value unless he gets 2 TDs or Coleman goes down with an injury, or gasp – the Giants are winning big time and Ito comes in for passing downs. But either way, he’ll have half the ownership that Coleman has and that makes him the preferred GPP option.
Joe Mixon should be in all lineups that Mahomes is in for the theory that Mixon will soak up a ton of dump-off targets while the Bengals play in “comeback mode”. He has 11 targets in the past two weeks and clearly has a bigger passing role with Giovani Bernard gone.
WIDE RECEIVER
Sammy Watkins had an absolute dud in Week 6 and should be extremely low-owned relative to the small 2-game slate. He has solid upside and should be a nice GPP target. I prefer him over players like Sterling Shepard, Calvin Ridley, and Mohamed Sanu. He’s kind of right smack in the middle of the mid-tier but I think he’ll carry lower ownership than all the aforementioned WRs and that matters in small slates.
Tyreek Hill is the splash play for the night. He can win you the slate in just a few touches and he doesn’t need to be stacked with Mahomes and I’ll want him in most of my lineups that don’t have Mahomes. That way, if Mahomes plays well hopefully I’ll have Hill who scores a couple of long touchdowns and in essence, I have a bit of the Mahomes juice in my lineup.
Tyler Boyd is my favorite WR on the slate not name Tyreek Hill. He’s been a target machine and scoring great this season. It doesn’t make sense that he’s only $7,100 with his stats. He’s a nice “run it back” stacking option when using Mahomes and friends. Boyd has 31 targets over the last three weeks and has 91 yards or a touchdown in 4 of the last 5 games.
John Ross looks like he’ll be active and although he’s only been played between 31-45 snaps, he is a nice extremely low-owned WR who could splash for a long touchdown if the Chiefs go up big and force Dalton to come from behind and air it out. Know what you’re getting from Ross, which is an incredibly volatile WR who can possibly score a big fat zero.
Sterling Shepard is the last WR I want to outright target (the rest can be pushed into my lineups from the DS optimizer). Shepard didn’t run as many lineups out of the slot the last couple of games but if he slides in there tonight he’ll have the best matchup on the Giants (besides Barkley, of course).
Tight End
Evan Engram and C.J. Uzomah are in the same boat. I think both are in decent spots and will play the majority of the snaps, possibly every single snap if their bodies can sustain the beating. They are only ownership pivots off of Travis Kelce and in any lineup that I can afford him in I am going to stack Kelce with Mahomes.
Travis Kelce likely ends up my third highest owned player. It will be Mahomes first, Barkley second, Kelce third. After that core, the DS and my minimum exposure settings with 1 or 2 uniques set into the optimizer will pump out most of my lineups for me with my input.
Defense
Kansas City DEF is really the one I want to target the most. I think the Falcons will be SO highly owned which is why I am also targeting them with Barkley and Eli Manning. It’s a leverage play. The Chiefs play better at home for the past decade and they turned in a really nice performance a couple weeks ago at home. They could surprise tonight and they’re cheap and should be playing with a lead most of the night.
I will still have a little exposure to Falcons whenever I can afford them but I honestly want to fade a defense whenever they’ll be owned a ridiculous amount on a 2-game slate.
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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
-Donuts
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