Its great to have regular season hockey on the go again, though this early in the season its hard for DFS, as there is a lack of solid information to base our decisions on. Much is based on last season, and things can change drastically one year to the next.
That being said, early trends can give us some indication of things to come, and hopefully help us find that edge we are looking for. Combined with the DFS Army NHL Research Station, and the great discussions that occur in the DFS Army Slack chat, this info will help us build our lineups.
We have 6 games on the slate tonight, and one of the interesting features of the early season has been the general lack of defence and goaltending. While these high numbers are almost certainly going to regress as teams get the kinks worked out, there are some situations that jump out for tonight.
Vancouver at Carolina. This game has an over/under of 6. Van has averaged a combined 9 goals a game ( total of for and against ) while Car has averaged 10. If this game goes over it wont surprise anyone. Van rookie E Petterrson has been in on 5 of the ‘Nucks’ 9 goals with 2 G and 3 A through two games and is looking like he will meet the early hype offensively, though his +1 rating shows the defence isn’t all there yet. He is the main target for Van, though Edler is always in play as a nice floor cash D man. On the Car side, 3 players have 4 points through 2 games, Ferland Staal and Aho. When you add in the value that Foegele presents, using a couple of these players in a correlated way should present some value.
Colorado at Columbus This game has an over/under of 6. The Blue Jackets are middle of the pack in terms of goals against per game on this slate, while Colorado has the 2nd fewest allowed. Columbus have only scored 4 goals in their 2games while the Avalanche had potted 9 in theirs. The Avs are doing it with balance scoring so far, 6 different players having goals and 10 with assists, and no player has more than 3 points. Col 1 is always worth a look, though MacKinnon does come with a hefty price tag. Barrie on D has a nice Implied scoring chance about 30% so is worth consideration as a mid tier D man. For Columbus Panarin and Dubinsky lead the way with a goal and an assist each, the only players with multiple points so far. With their high price tags you are betting on past performance, which while for these players has paid off in the past, perhaps doesn’t give you the value you can get from other players tonight.
San Jose at Philadelphia Like most games tonight this one has an over/under of 6. SJ only has 5 goals in their 3 games and are looking not quite right, especially on the PP. They are playing on a b2b after being shut out by the NYI last night. Philadelphia is averaging 7 total goals in their 2 games, and are a by the skin of their teeth favorite tonight. However they lost JVR to injury. Its hard to focus in on any given Sharks given how they have been playing so far. Just on the eyeball test Meier and Couture looked good yesterday, but that is just me watching the game with only 1 eye. Kane is the only Shark with multiple points with 2 G. While you know the sharks are going to get theirs at some point, I am not sure tonight is the night. From a GPP look, Dell might be worth considering as a cheap goalie option who might be low owned. No Flyer has more than 2 points through 2 games. This is another team with too much talent to be shut down for long stretches, but narrowing down the player pool is tough. The usual suspects are all in consideration, though again better value can likely be found elsewhere, especially in cash games.
Calgary at Nashville another game with the over/under set at 6. The Flames are averaging goal totals of 9 per game through 2 while the Preds sit at 6. Tkachuk and Gaudreau lead the way with 5 and 4 points respectively while Giordano leads the defense with 3. For Nashville its the D leading the way as Subban and Ekholm each have 3 points. Arvidson has a pair of goals to lead the team. Rinne is always a goalie consideration, and just my opinion, but he seems more variable each year. Given the Flames hot start offensively, I would tend to lean more GPP with Rinne.
Los Angeles at Winnipeg the only game with a over under of 5.5. Both teams have scored 6 goals so far, LA giving up 5 and the Jets 6. The Jets were outplayed by St L everywhere but in net and came away with a 5-1 win, then lost 5-1 vs Dallas. They have given up an avg of almost 40 shots a game through two, making Hellebyuck an intriguing play, especially in GPP though LA only averaged 23 shots for in their games. Taffoli and Iafallo lead the Kings with 3 points so far. Campbell is in net, but only has a 4 career game sample size, so is gpp only. Connor leads the Jets with 2 G and 3 points, no one else is above 2. You know their top guys (Scheifele Wheeler Laine) will get theirs over the course of the season but they haven’t gotten it going yet. All in all this strikes me as an under game they way these teams are playing.
Toronto at Dallas This game has an over under of 6. The top scoring team in the league (Tor with 13 for) vs the team giving up the least goals ( Dal with 1 against). Which will prevail tonight? The Leafs have looked unstoppable on offensive, but have also given up 13 goals so far. Dallas is averaging 4 goals for a game. Bishop has looked very solid so far while the combo of Anderson and Sparks has not. Take your pick of the Leafs forwards. Mathews with 5 G 3 A leads the way, followed by Tavares and his 4 G , Marner and Marleau with 4 points each. On D Reilly leads the way with 6 points. If you believe Tor can solve the stars then Reilly should be in strong consideration. On the Stars side, any of the top line is worth consideration in any format tonight.
Teams I like more tonight include Car, Nash, Tor and Dal. Less excited about Columbus, San Jose, LA, and Winnipeg.
Players I think might have some value tonight.
Ferland 4600 Fd /5000 Dk
Foegele 3700FD/ 4300 DK
Ekholm 4800 FD / 4800 DK
Kapenen 3700 FD /3100 DK
Reilly 5600 FD/ 6000 DK
Seguin 7900 FD / 7500 DK
Radulov 6400 FD/ 6400 DK
Good luck All!!
JD