DFS Golf: Fall Swing Favorites – Shriner’s Hospital for Children Open

The PGA Tour makes its way back across the Pacific for the Shriner’s Hospital for Children Open in Sin City! 

My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA Coach here at DFS Army as well as an NFL Contributor and I write the Chalk Donkey article weekly for our VIPs. I’m changing up the format a bit for the fall swing and providing you with my Fall Swing Favorites, which will be my favorite plays each week taking into account ownership, projections, and game theory.

The WGC-HSBC Champions event ended with a familiar scene, Tony Finau being unable to close and the PGA’s own Ricky Bobby, aka Xander Schauffele taking home the title in a playoff. It seems that Finau is on a career path similar to that of Rickie Fowler with both being unable to close in these big events, yet consistently finishing in the top ten.

Xander meanwhile truly embodies the Ricky Bobby quote of “if you aren’t first you’re last”. He very rarely strings together solid performances and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him miss the cut in his next event. He’s gone top ten to missed cut twice this year and had another where he went top ten to almost dead last that made the cut. He’s an enigma and I feel like one that I rarely get right.

There were some other solid performances from our picks last week. Patrick Cantlay had a 7th place finish, but never really contended for the lead. Paul Casey was a steady 17th, and punt pick Andrea Pavan more than paid off his salary with a 21st place finish. Overall a solid week where I cashed all my lineups. No big runners, but when you are only throwing unicorns (one lineup) on each site that’s what you get.

The big story last week though was the swings. Golfers were shooting in the 60’s one day and the 80’s the next. There was a real lack of consistency especially from some of the course horses like Matthew Fitzpatrick and Rory McIlroy. The weather didn’t play an issue and it was mostly just a lack of driving accuracy and struggling around the greens, something to remember for next year.

We are finally back in the US and get a normal Thursday AM lock. The field is strong for a fall swing event and we get some of the bigger names making an appearance here for the first time. We have 138 golfers in the field, which is smaller than a normal event but it’s still top 70 and ties that make the cut. This course is a fun one and is typically a birdie fest, but last year the wind picked it up and made it one of the more difficult scoring tournaments of the season. The weather looks great in Vegas this week though and we should see a return to the scoring this tournament is known for.

Course Breakdown:

The Shriner’s Hospital for Children is held at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nevada. The course is a par 71 and measures 7255 yards. While many courses overseed, Summerlin plays very natural and while it will look green on television, it will be because the Fairways were painted. That means that the fairways will run fairly firm for this time of year, and the rough will be difficult to get out of.

At 7255 yards, it plays fairly long, we get an extra par 4 this week as a par 71 and there will be some emphasis placed on medium par 4 scoring. Bermuda grass in the fairways and bent grass on the greens. The greens are big and undulating and leave some big breakers if you aren’t close the hole.

If we look at last year’s scoring you can see that it played fairly difficult each day because of the wind, in fact rounds 2-4 all averaged over par rounds. I think we get a better idea of what we want to target though if we look at 2017’s scoring.

This is what I expect to see this year, over half the field shooting rounds under par, and very few guys over par. In 2017, the number of rounds under par doubled those that were over par.

The firm and fast fairways bring some of the shorter hitters into play here and we have seen them have some success in the past. This event while still attracting some big names has had guys like Rod Pampling, Ben Martin, and Webb Simpson win, which isn’t necessarily your who’s who of bombers.

As with any event that has had some birdie fests, there have been some low scores here and Pampling and JJ Henry have both fired 60’s here. Johnathan Byrd won here in 2010 with a hole in one on the fourth playoff hole.

With the course expected to play somewhat easy, the key will be placement off the tee so that you can attack the pins. Over the past couple years, the PGA tour has gotten a little more aggressive with the pin placements and you need to be not only in the fairway, but the right spots in the fairway to attack it. Players hit over 70% of the Greens in Regulation here on average so its not necessarily just hitting the green, but getting it close enough to make a putt, which is why SG: Approach will once again be key.

One other thing to note is that this course is played at elevation and the ball tends to travel further. Guys who are good with knowing their distances and what the ball does in the light air will be at an advantage.

The rough is penal, but if you are long enough it tends to not matter as much. In the final round of the 2017 event, Brooks Koepka (one of the longest hitters on tour) hit 7/14 fairways and 15/18 greens, while his competitor Rod Pampling (who would beat him by two strokes) hit 9/14 fairways and only 13/18 greens in regulation. Long, accurate, and good iron play is key here, which is why guys like Patrick Cantlay have won here and Tony Finau has always contended.

Key Stats this Week:

In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Shriner’s Childrens Hospital Open. WE GET SHOTTRACKER DATA AGAIN THIS WEEK! Thank God!

One thing I like to look at first before we get into the key stats is the Results by Stokes Gained tab and averages by finish on the RS.

So if we look at in event strokes gained, it looks like you need to be in the positive in strokes gained off the tee and approach. It’s a pretty big drop off from positive to negative in SG: OTT and SG: App in terms of average fantasy points. What that means is that once players cross that line to the negative, your fantasy point production goes down pretty significantly.

The other big take away is that players who get hot with the putter do pretty well here. You don’t need to get crazy hot, but it can help.

This is just in event though, let’s see if these takeaways correlate with season-long averages. We know that you need to gain strokes off the tee in event, but do you need to be gaining strokes off the season all season to finish well here?

Again, it looks like we want to target guys gaining strokes off the tee and approach. Around the green doesn’t matter as much and as we said earlier with a birdie fest where players hit the greens on average at over 70% you aren’t going to have a ton of opportunities to gain strokes around the green, and if you do you are probably in trouble.

In a testament to the variance in putting, Players who are gaining strokes during the season putting don’t necessarily play well here. This is why we never really target putters, it can flip in an instant.

Another tab I like to look at to confirm what I’m seeing is the Averages by Finish tab in the RS. I particularly like to look at what players who are finishing in the top ten do well here. We have a decent sample size and it can help us figure out what type of players to target.

If we look at the entire top of the field, it looks like driving distance is a bigger deal than driving accuracy. Winners here have been fairly accurate at 66%, but top ten averages below 60% and all of the top twenty average around 310 yards off the tee. That in event average is a little skewed because this event is held at altitude and with the hard fairways even the shorter hitters get a little role, but season-long averages for players in the top ten are over 290 which is about average on today’s tour.

Players who finish in the top ten also hit a ton of greens in regulation here, and typically are gaining strokes in approach, not only in event but in season as well. It appears that SG: Approach is one of the biggest indicators of success here.

Value Tab: 

The next thing that we look at is the value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab looks at Vegas odds and our projections, versus the salary FanDuel or Draftkings, have assigned to that player.

Typically we see some of the top of the board here, but this week we get some of the lower priced DK options here popping as good values.

Kevin Tway is either mispriced on DK or FD. I lean that he is too expensive on FD and maybe $500 too cheap on DK considering his odds to win. I think this is a good fit for him and he should have a nice week. He’s a GPP only play for me because he can blow up and miss the cut, but I don’t mind him.

Corey Conners had a 2nd place finish last week at the Sanderson Farms, and we have seen guys in the past parlay success there to here. His putting drives me insane, but he has an unreal approach game and at $6600 on DK he really just needs to make the cut to hit value.

Another guy who played well at the Sanderson Farms is Carlos Ortiz and he will look to continue that hot streak here. He’s climbed over 400 spots in the OWGR in the last year and while it was on the Web, he hasn’t missed a cut since May.

SG: Off the Tee

Strokes gained off the tee measures the number of strokes a player takes from a specific distance on Par 4’s and Par 5’s against a statistical baseline. Basically it looks at who gains the most from their drives.

With the Web.com guys, (Cameron Champ, John Chin, Anders Albertson) we don’t have a ton of data, but Champ did win last week having a great four rounds tee to green (and he had an unreal putting performance that is likely not sustainable).

Tony Finau has had a ton of success here in the past with multiple top 20 finishes. At his price though, you likely need him to win this week.

I have tons off interest in Sungjae Im and Abraham Ancer this week coming off let downs for players in the weeks prior. It should drive down ownership. Both are world class players and ones that I’ll have a heavy dose of in my lineups.

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 25 rounds)

SG: Approach is going to be key here this week. I want to look at the last 25 rounds because I think that takes out some of the variance in it and should give us a good idea who is been hitting the irons well the last few months. At this course with the big, undulating greens you want to pick golfers who are able to hit it tight or in the right area at least, and SG: App can help us do that.

Stat darling Joel Dahmen pops here again, and for a guy that is on top of every stat category weekly, he never seems to put it together enough to contend. Sam Ryder is on a string of pretty good form, he did miss the cut here last year, but at least he’s seen the course.

Gary Woodland is one of my favorite plays this week even at an elevated price tag. He continues to put together solid performances and was 18th here last year.

Rickie Fowler has a 25th here from 2015 but the course has undergone some significant changes since then with bunker placements and a few other tricks. I think Rick is a good play but he hasn’t teed up since the Ryder Cup. I would expect a little rust, but at the same time he really is the class of this field.

Other key stats to consider this week, that I’ll get into in my breakdown of the field:

 Double Bogey or worse %, Birdies Gained, Greens in Regulation %, Fantasy Points Gained and Projected Course Score 

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Fall Swing Favorites:

Typically, each week I write a chalk donkey article, breaking down who the chalk is and where you can pivot, but through the fall swing I’m going to be trying out a new format where I give you my three favorite plays in each tier as well as the other players I’m considering and those I’m fading. Chalk in the fall swing almost always has to be eaten due to the fields being not as strong as a normal tour event. I’ll also include my projection of the three highest owned players in each tier, along with my full player pool at the end.

Tiers: 

I utilize Draftking pricing, but these are applicable to any site usually.

High: Salary of 9K and UP

Mid: Salary of 7.5K – 9K

Low: Below 7K

High:

Patrick Cantlay: DK $9900/FD $11,900

Back to the well with Cantlay here this week. We were on him last week and he paid off his salary with a 10th place finish and while he does see a pretty significant bump in this weaker field, I’m willing to pay it for what he brings to the table.

Cantlay was last year’s winner at this event under much different conditions but regardless, he knows his way around this course and has some level of comfort. The bigger thing for me is that he checks all the boxes.

Solid Off the Tee? Check

Solid Approach numbers? Check

Course History? Check

Recent Form? Check

Solid Projected Course Score? Check

The big concern that I have with Cantlay this week is can he hang around in a birdie fest? He’s Birdies Gained and Avg. Fantasy Points Gained isn’t great. That being said, he did shoot -14 at the Memorial this year and he is able to avoid bogeys. He doesn’t need to light it up with 35 birdies this week. If he can get to around 20 or 25 he can avoid damage enough else where that he should be fine.

The putting is the other issue. He has well known struggles with the putter, but Bent grass is actually his best surface. A mediocre putting week and he will be right in contention.

I think Cantlay is the most cash safe option in this range given the boxes that he checks and I’ll be firing him up in GPP as well.

Other options in this tier: Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Aaron Wise, Matt Kuchar (form/stats are really mediocre but a way underowned Kuch in this field is intriguing in GPP this week just based on his pedigree)

Fades in this tier: 

Cameron Champ (His putting performance last week was an anomaly and while its likely that he improved, no way he replicates that this week. I love the kid, but chalk Champ in this field no way jose), Chesson Hadley 

Projected Chalk (highly owned): Gary Woodland, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau 

Mid:

Sungjae Im: DK $8000/FD $8300

Sungjae burned everyone who played him last week at the Sanderson Farms by missing the cut, and this is the perfect time to get back on him as he will have reduced ownership. Had he continued to play well, I think we could have seen him push over 20%

If people are going to get off this kid, I’ll go all in on him. He has the talent to win this week and I’m assuming we see him push the mid 8k’s, low 9k’s weekly once the season kicks back up in the spring on a regular basis.

Last week, the course wasn’t a great fit for him, and he was coming back from playing in Asia. I think that we see more of what we saw at the Safeway with him here.

Im’s strengths are driving the ball, and approach. If he can get balls into the fairway he has the iron/wedge game to get them close. He’s also a fairly solid putter, or has been on the Web.com.

I’m not sure that Sungjae is cash safe this week, but I love him in GPP and will be firing him up at a pretty heavy clip.

Other options in this tier: Abraham Ancer, Beau Hossler, Scott Piercy, Austin Cook, Sam Ryder, Sam Burns (Super chalk. I want to play him, but he’s going to be chalky and while he had a good week last week, not sure he can keep it up this week given his awful approach stats for the year)

Fades in this tier: Andrew Putnam (HE’S WITHDRAWN), Denny McCarthy, Patrick Rodgers 

Projected Chalk (highly owned): Beau Hossler, Ryan Moore, Scott Piercy 

Low:

Carlos Ortiz: DK $6800/FD $7700

Ortiz was 15th in SG: Tee-to-green last week to end up finishing in a tie for 3rd and has been trending in the right direction. He’s another Web.com grad who I want to get exposure to this week at this price before it goes up.

He made 17 birdies, an eagle and only 4 bogeys last week. At the Safeway open where he made the cut as well, he had a similar stat line until a blow up on Sunday knocked him all the way back to T53, still making the cut and contending in a full field PGA Tour event again after two years on the Web is impressive.

Ortiz while some may think of as a rookie, was actually on tour in 2014-2015 and finished 18th here, he’s familiar with the course and the set up.

The sample size is small, but Ortiz checks the boxes in projected course score and particularly in fantasy scoring on Medium Par 4’s. He’s also seen a positive drift this week meaning that money is coming in on him to win this event, so Bookies are dropping the line.

I think Ortiz has the game to contend here and at this price, all he really needs to do is make the cut and you hit value on him. I love his prospects this week.

Other options in this tier: Dylan Meyer, Adam Schenk, Russell Henley (I know he’s been in poor form but really with this price?), Cam Davis, Kevin Tway, Joel Dahmen, Seth Reeves, Corey Conners, Adam Svensson, Kenny Perry (The old guy can still get it around and I really like punting him in some lineups this week), Brice Garnett (WAAAAY too cheap for a guy who is a great ballstriker)

Fades in this tier: Alex Cjeka, JJ Spaun

Projected Chalk (highly owned): Alex Cjeka, JJ Spaun, Joel Dahmen 

Player Pool:

Here is my projected player pool for the week for GPP. I try to keep it somewhat tight 25-30 unless I’m putting in 150 lineups, then I’ll expand it. Again, pricing/pool is for Draftkings.

10K: Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth 

9K: Patrick Cantlay, Gary Woodland, Aaron Wise, Matt Kuchar 

8K: Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer, Scott Piercy, Sungjae Im

7K: Bronson Burgoon, Austin Cook, Sam Ryder, Sam Burns, Dylan Meyer, Adam Schenk, Russell Henley, Cam Davis, Kevin Tway, Joel Dahmen 

6K: Seth Reeves, Corey Conners, Adam Svensson, Kenny Perry, Brice Garnett, Carlos Ortiz

Final Thoughts: 

We finally get a cut event! Don’t go crazy with your bankroll but cash games are all viable again this week and I like the idea of MME’n a few tournaments with a small player pool like the one listed above.

I’ll post some updates in my coaching channel as I start to build more lineups today. Make sure to join in and ask any questions. Lock is not until 9 AM CST on Thursday!

Join us in our coaching channels this week and lets win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week and ready to help you before lock on Thursday!

Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!