The PGA Tour’s Fall Swing arrives in Shanghai for the final stop in the far east and the last time we will see some of the top players in the world until the new year. 78 players will be playing for a share of 10 Million dollars at Sheshan Golf Club!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA Coach here at DFS Army as well as an NFL Contributor and I write the Chalk Donkey article weekly for our VIPs. I’m changing up the format a bit for the fall swing and providing you with my Fall Swing Favorites, which will be my favorite plays each week taking into account ownership, projections, and game theory.
The tour continues the Asia portion of the Fall swing with its final stop in the Far East. The HSBC Championship is a World Golf Championship event which means we get a very diverse field of including most of the top 75 in the world. The event is hosted at Sheshan Golf Club in Shanghai, China and is a course that typically the cream rises the top, so the emphasis will be on players in good form, and highly ranked. Before we get to the course breakdown, let’s recap the CJ Cup from last week.
What a gong show! I really can’t think of a better word to describe it. No cut events are typically very ‘swingy’ in that you might be winning a gpp one second and out of the cash the next based on a birdie or two, but this event was nuts. We saw guys go from the lead, to last and back again. Brooks Koepka outlasted everyone to take home the win and the massive prize for first place. The craziness of Sunday saw Adam Scott jump up 33 places to be the biggest mover on the final day, (and there were multiple guys who jumped up 25 or more spots) and Abraham Ancer dropped a whopping 42 places going from the top 30 to almost dead last. That cost me some money.
I played extremely light, but I might avoid this event all together next year. The swings were insane, and without shot link data it makes it extremely hard to identify values/good plays coming in. Everyone is guaranteed a paycheck this week with last place making close to what I take home in a year before Uncle Sam snags his piece, just for showing up. Lock is at 7:50 PM CST! Sorry this is getting out late, wanted to wait for the RS and ownership projections to get you guys the best info possible. Let’s get to this week’s WGC HSBC Champions event and the course breakdown for Sheshan Golf Club.
Course Breakdown:
The WGC HSBC Champions is held at Sheshan Golf Club in Shanghai, China. The course has hosted this event in some format for every year but one since 2005. The course is a par 72 and measures 7261 yards.
Surprisingly, this course played over par and it actually has for a lot of years of this tournament, regardless of the winning score. After a difficult Sunday that saw a ton of guys shoot over par last year, Justin Rose emerged victorious with a 5 under par 67 when most guys were lucky to even shoot 72.
The course while only a bit over 7200 yards plays difficult due to the tight, tree lined fairways, and rough that is a mix of three different grasses. The rough can either bury your ball or your give you a flyer, which leaves players really guessing and unable to get it anywhere near the hole from the rough. As such we see a pretty big correlation to strokes gained off the tee, driving accuracy, and greens in regulation % which will be three areas we want to target when looking at golfers.
Bogey avoidance will also be key, especially big numbers. There is water in play on 11 holes, and with the difficult rough and tree lined fairways we can see big numbers here quite often. Another contributing factor is the false fronts on a lot of these greens. If you don’t get it all the way to the hole you can be in trouble and have your ball filter all the way off the green.
Last year, Rose made only 9 bogeys on the week and avoided a big number by having no double bogeys. Brooks Koepka who finished second meanwhile, had a triple and a double on his card to go with 6 bogeys. Takes a stroke off each of those and he’s going to a playoff. Avoiding big numbers is key here if you want to win.
This course will eat you alive if you get off track. Two years removed from a top ten finish here, Patrick Reed entered the 3rd round at -8 and in good position to make a run at another top ten, and then the third round happened. Check out his scorecard.
A triple, four doubles, and a bogey. Oofta. From -8 to +2 just like that and completely out of the tournament. This goes to show the volatility that this course brings and if you are feeling good about your lineups after two rounds you need to temper some expectations because this can happen pretty easily. It also is a good reminder to play light!
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the WGC HSBC Champions.
One thing I like to look at first before we get into the key stats is the Results by Stokes Gained tab on the RS. Typically we look at the Averages by Finish tab as well, but again with no shot tracker we don’t have much data.
There are a few things we can pull from it here though. You want to win a GPP? As usual you have to have the tournament winner, but you also probably need 5/6 in the top ten. The gap in scoring and fantasy points is pretty big and if you have guys hovering around the 40-50 mark you are at a big disadvantage. Typically in a normal tournament you can get away with 2-3 guys below 20th and still place respectably, not here.
The other thing is that in tournament you absolutely have to be accurate off the tee, and that will lead to a higher percentage of greens in regulation. At some courses if you are a little wayward off the tee you can get away with it and we see a pretty gradual slide down the chart and only a 5-10% difference in greens in regulation percentage…not here.
Does this correlate to guys’ season long statistcis though? Lets look.
It’s pretty close. It actually looks like maybe season long SG: Off the Tee is a better indicator of success here than driving accuracy, which would make sense as that encompasses everything.
Driving distance doesn’t look to be a huge indicator. Anecdotally it looks like bombers have a little bit of an advantage from what we’ve heard from the players and seen in the results, but the stats don’t really support that. Guys like Francesco Molinari have won here and he’s notoriously short.
Value Tab:
Since we don’t really have any historical data, lets look at the Value tab in the RS. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab looks at Vegas odds and our projections, versus the salary FanDuel or DraftKings have assigned to that player.
Dustin Johnson pops as our best value of the week with his top odds and our projections having him as the highest scorer. He’s also the highest priced player in the tournament. He absolutely tore this course apart for the first three rounds last year before a 77 in the wind on Sunday dropped him back to a fourth place.
Some of the usual suspects are here, Tony Finau and Brooks Koepka. Koepka might be my favorite play on the board and Finau should do well here as its a great course fit, but the concern is that he just never really finishes. A top 5 at his price would be great, but can he win? I don’t know he hasn’t really proved he can yet.
Thomas Pieters is cheap, but his form is mediocre. Thorbjorn Olesen is one of my favorite golfers period, so I have to put that aside, he typically plays well over in Asia and he has a top ten here a few years ago. All good plays.
SG: Off the Tee
Strokes gained off the tee measures the number of strokes a player takes from a specific distance on Par 4’s and Par 5’s against a statistical baseline. Basically it looks at who gains the most from their drives.
It’s no surprise that Rory is leading the way here, and that he’s had a ton of success at this course over the years. McIlroy is the best driver of the golf ball on tour and he is clearly the class here. Since 2010, he’s only finished outside the top ten here once and that was an 11th place finish. He has been a course horse here and the price is really enticing, I get a discount on all the other studs on DK.
Ryan Fox is a bomber and should do well here, the guy I’m really interested in Matt Wallace and Brandon Stone though. Both European tour guys, Stone shot a 59 earlier this year and Wallace had three wins on the Euro Tour in 2018. Wallace is kind of a first or last guy and thats exactly the type of player I want to target in a no-cut event. Stone can make a ton of birdies and prior to last week’s British Masters where he missed the cut had been on a run of really good form.
Finau shows up again and even though I don’t love him I think he needs to be a part of the player pool.
Other key stats to consider this week, that I’ll get into in my breakdown of the field:
SG: Approach, Double Bogey or worse %, Birdies Gained, Greens in Regulation %, and Projected Course Score
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Fall Swing Favorites:
Typically, each week I write a chalk donkey article, breaking down who the chalk is and where you can pivot, but through the fall swing I’m going to be trying out a new format where I give you my three favorite plays in each tier as well as the other players I’m considering and those I’m fading. Chalk in the fall swing almost always has to be eaten due to the fields being not as strong as a normal tour event. I’ll also include my projection of the three highest owned players in each tier, along with my full player pool at the end.
Tiers:
I utilize Draftking pricing, but these are applicable to any site usually.
High: Salary of 9K and UP
Mid: Salary of 7.5K – 9K
Low: Below 7K
High:
The usual suspects are here, and I think you really can’t go wrong with any of them. Rory McIlroy is my favorite of the bunch and will carry heavy ownership. I really like the discount in ownership you can get on Jason Day here and as a GPP play it makes a lot of sense, that said his off the tee game is horrendous and I think I’ll be avoiding him. I want to highlight a guy that has had the mark of consistency here and often gets forgotten about as one of the elite, though I really think he falls into that category.
Paul Casey: DK $9200/FD $11,400
Casey is way too cheap on DK for the type of golfer he is. He is the epitome of consistency, not only at this course, but in general and he actually broke through this year for a win at a course that I think you could consider similar. The win at the Valspar took place on the Copperhead course at Innisbrook. The tight tree lined fairways, tough rough, lots of water and false fronts on that course are very similar to here. The only difference is grass type.
Casey hasn’t finished outside of the top 25 here ever. And at this price this week, a top 20 finish is likely all he needs to hit value. I have some concerns about his off the tee game as that has never really been a strength, but the consistency in the rest of his game is worth paying for. If I’m going to take some shots on riskier players (Like the one right below him who I love) I want a guy that I can basically just lock in for a top twenty and move on and that guy is Casey.
Casey has one of the best double bogey or worse % in the field, and for a guy that you don’t think of as a great scorer, gains a ton of Fantasy points weekly on the field as he’s 8th in the field this week.
Lock in Casey for some consistency in your lineups, but I think he has winning upside this week. He’s a great course fit and the recent form is there, we could see him atop the podium.
I have a hard time fading the top of this tier this week as the cream has typically risen to the top at this event, but loading up on the 9k/8k range is really enticing with all of the great plays here.
Other options in this tier:
Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Paul Casey, Tyrell Hatton, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose
Fades in this tier:
Tommy Fleetwood (chalk), Francesco Molinari (Hasn’t played enough, and when he has its mediocre), Jason Day (concerns about the off the tee game, but the discount on ownership is intriguing)
Projected Chalk (highly owned): Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose
Mid:
I love this range this week and there are a ton of good plays, I’m going to highlight one that you know we love at DFSArmy and even though he’s at the top of the price tier, presents a great value.
Patrick Cantlay: DK $8800/FD $10600
Cantlay is one of my favorite plays of the week and the fact that we might get him at less than 10% ownership is really all I need to get him in as many lineups as possible.
You talk about a course that requires you to hit fairways and greens and stay out of trouble while still making birdies? I can’t think of a player better suited for that than Patrick Cantlay.
He’s T2 in GIR %, 15th in Fantasy Points Gained, and 5th in Double bogey or worse %. He just gets it done no matter the course, no matter the field, Patrick will be in the mix. Cantlay hasn’t missed a cut since the Fort Worth Invitational in May and he has only finished outside the top 25 three times since then, including a t12 finish at the US Open.
In his first trip here last year, Cantlay avoided a double bogey in all four rounds and if he would have done a little bit better job hitting fairways on the front (11 of 28) He likely would have placed even better. He actually was just 50% on the week, so his finishing position was great for being a little wayward off the tee. His accuracy off the tee has improved over the past year and I expect him to come in and finish even better this year given the current state of his game.
There is some concern about not playing since the Safeway a few weeks ago, but I think he will be jacked up for a WGC event and be fine.
Other options in this tier:
Matthew Fitzpatrick (LOVE HIM THIS WEEK), Byeong Hun An, Lucas Bjerregaard (Chalk or not, get him in your lineups even if you haven’t heard of him. He’s a stud and has been tearing up the Euro tour), Hao-tong Li, Kyle Stanley, Keegan Bradley, Thorbjorn Olesen
Fades in this tier:
Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, Xander Schauffele
Projected Chalk (highly owned): Lucas Bjerregaard, Kyle Stanley, Ian Poulter
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Low:
Typically, I like to find a guy that is a great value down here and Matt Wallace is incredibly under priced down here for a guy who has won on the Euro Tour three times this year, I’ll have quite a bit of him, but he will be one of the highest owned players on the slate, so I’m going to provide you with a pivot who should be low single digits in ownership and has some great form coming in.
Andrea Pavan: DK $6600/FD $NOT IN THE PLAYER POOL BECAUSE FANDUEL SUCKS
OK, sorry for the all caps, I went to find Pavan in the player pool and was blown away that he’s not there. This is recent form….
T16, T5, T20, MC, 1, T6, T14.
The guy won five events ago, and Fanduel can’t get him in the player pool. Blown away. Oh well, I’ll play him a ton on DK and shift my shares of him on FD to Brandon Stone.
Pavan’s recent form is actually better than Wallace’s and he will be 21% less owned. In GPP’s Wallace is going to be a full fade for me. Anytime a chalk guy is under 7K it rarely works out. I love Wallace, love his game, if you are crazy enough to play cash games this week I think you can probably lock him in, but in GPP’s I’ll leverage the ownership and play Pavan for $100 less and 21% less owned. I think he could be the key to taking down a GPP if he plays well here.
Other options in this tier:
Eddie Pepperell, Ryan Fox, C.T. Pan, Julian Suri, Wu Ashun, Gaganjeet Bhullar (great driver of the ball, super accurate, should be in good shape here), Brandon Stone, Alexander Bjork, Adrian Otaegui
Fades in this tier:
Shubhankar Sharma, Matt Wallace, Branden Grace
Projected Chalk (highly owned): Matt Wallace, Eddie Pepperell, Julian Suri
Player Pool:
Here is my projected player pool for the week for GPP. I try to keep it somewhat tight 25-30 unless I’m putting in 150 lineups, then I’ll expand it. Again, pricing/pool is for Draftkings.
10K: Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy
9K: Paul Casey, Tyrell Hatton, Tony Finau
8K: Ben An, Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick
7K: Thorbjorn Olesen, Lucas Bjerregaard, Hao-Tong Li, Keegan Bradley, Eddie Pepperell, C.T. Pan, Julian Suri
6K: Wu Ashun, Gaganjeet Bhullar, Andrea Pavan, Alexander Bjork, Brandon Stone, Adrian Otaegui
Final Thoughts:
Another week with a no cut event, and another warning to be smart with your bankroll. I’m avoiding cash games entirely and just throwing a few GPP lineups in again this week. Cash is too volatile in these no cut events. Triple/Quintuple ups are viable though if you feel like you need a little more safety.
As ownership trends start to finalize I’ll update this article with the projected chalk. I’ll post some updates in my coaching channel and make sure to join in and ask any questions. I love weeks where I can watch a little golf before bed, go to sleep, wake up and see how my teams did. REMEMBER LOCK IS EARLY THIS WEEK!7:50 PM CST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT!
Join us in our coaching channels this week and lets win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week and ready to help you before lock on Wednesday!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!