Welcome to Zadelstein’s Bargain Basement! A bargain is defined as “a thing offered for sale more cheaply than is usual or expected.” Bargains aren’t always the cheapest of the pick and that’s not what I want to give you. I want to give you the best value possible! With CFB DFS just returning to the scene, pricing is very volatile and recency bias is real. While there won’t always be a handful of sub $4000 players that will put up 30+ points on a regular basis, digging deeper shows us where to look for the best value possible. Stats and numbers are a very real thing, but they can be deceiving. I believe by looking at the opportunity, as well as production, you can find a much better picture of possible outcomes of a player, as opposed to the raw stats the sites tend to use in pricing.
QB Daniel Jones (Duke) $7200 – $7200?! Value?! Stick with me here for a second. Generally, $7200 is not a value, but here in CFB, Daniel Jones at $7200 is the 27th option on the board. Last week, Jones with a lethargic 13-17 for 197 yards and a touchdown, adding 43 yards and a touchdown on 10 rushes. Duke beat Army easily 34-14. Nothing special here right?
Last year, in week 1, Daniel Jones went 19-25 through the air for 213 yards and ran 4 times for 19 yards and a TD in a 60-7 thrashing of North Carolina Central. The next week, Daniel Jones played Northwestern, the same Northwestern that Duke faces this week. In that game last year, Jones was 29-45 through the air for 305 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. On the ground, he added 16 rushes for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns. By my calculations, he would have scored 41 DK points in a 41-17 spanking of Northwestern.
One risk of this game is that Vegas has the over-under at 47 with Northwestern favored by 4 at home. That being said, Daniel Jones gets his value both on the ground and in the air. With Northwestern coming off of a 31-27 opening night primetime win over Purdue, I think there will be recency bias in their favor. The last performance by Jones will just add to this. Even at $7200, Jones might be the best value QB of the week.
RB Jafar Armstrong (Notre Dame) $6100 – Last week, Notre Dame played a stout Michigan running D in a primetime game, winning 24-17. Last season, the Wolverines ranked 8th in Defensive Rushing S&P+. This week, the Fighting Irish take on a Ball State squad that gave up 174 yards rushing in week 1 to Central Connecticut State in a 42-6 victory. In 2017, Ball State ranked 128 in Defensive Rushing S&P+. Vegas has the total on this game set at 58.5 with Notre Dame favored by 35.5 points.
The backfield for Notre Dame is officially an “OR” situation, meaning a split backfield. Coming into the Michigan game, it was assumed that Junior Tony Jones Jr. ($6700) would take the lead yet Sophomore Jafar Armstrong not only started the game, he out carried Jones Jr. 15 to 9. He also caught 2 passes on 3 targets for 11 yards. Armstrong is a converted wide receiver who moved over to running back after last season due to lack of depth. I think both RBs will be great plays this week but the salary savings, as well as the week 1 nod, make me lean Armstrong.
WR Blake Proehl (East Carolina) $3600 – East Carolina got embarrassed last week at home to North Carolina A & T, yet they have tome DFS gems for us. They threw the ball 65 times (yes 65!) last week, as well as ran the ball 24! That’s 89 plays! And they still lost! The running game on this team is awful, ranking 119th in the FBS last year and gaining a measly 3 yards per carry against NCA&T. This week, they face North Carolina, a much tougher test, on the road. That being said, Vegas has the total at 56.6 with the Tar Heels favored by 10.5. That is a competitive game that ECU will be able to make plays in.
Blake Proehl, a redshirt freshman, caught 9 passes for 65 yards and a touchdown last week against NCA&T. He is listed 2nd behind Deondre Farrier ($3900) on the depth chart, yet last week, he started and made a catch the 2nd play of the game. He has an obvious connection with Sophomore QB Reid Herring ($5700) who will be making his 2nd start against UNC. On top of that, he will have extra motivation this week seeing that his brother, Austin Proehl, played on the Tar Heels from 2013 – 2017. Younger broth Blake was snubbed by the Tar Heels and I believe will come in with a chip on his shoulder
Note: Terrell Green ($3700) is another wide receiver I will look to target from this team. Before week 1, he was listed as a backup, yet recorded 10 receptions for 85 yards. This week he is listed as a starter.
WR Randall St. Felix (South Florida) $5000 – South Florida redshirt freshman has been on coach Charlie Strong’s radar since spring practice and even during his redshirt year. Playing in week one against Elon, St. Felix recorded 7 receptions on 10 targets for 143 yards and a touchdown. Included in these receptions was a 52 yarder as well as a 40 yard catch for a score. Coach Strong said after, “He has looked like this since spring practice…making those types of catches.”
This week, South Florida has a tougher test against Georgia Tech. Vegas sees this game with an over under set at 52.5 and Georgia Tech favored by 2.5. Georgia Tech will be running out the triple option which could give this USF team fits. Last week, the Bulls gave up several long runs. I look for this game to stay close, with USF trying to move the ball through the air after former Alabama QB Blake Barnett ($7500) threw for 305 yards on 24 attempts in week 1. Look for him to continue to target his big play receiver against Georgia Tech.
WR Caleb Wilson (UCLA) $4800 – UCLA had an ugly week 1 loss to Cincinnati falling 26 – 17 in coach Chip Kelly’s debut. This week, the Bruins travel to Norman to face Oklahoma. In Vegas, the total is set at 66 with Oklahoma favored by 25. In 2017, Oklahoma was ranked a middling 58th in Football Outsiders Defensive Passing S&P+ ranking. This is an ideal game to target a pass catcher with a team trailing most of the game.
A staple of the Chip Kelly offense has always been getting the tight end involved early and often. In week 1, UCLA TE Caleb Wilson had 4 receptions on 9 targets for 36 yards. While the bottom line might not be impressive, there was plenty of opportunity for the Bruin. Last week, the leading receiver for OU opponent Florida Atlantic was their TE, Tavaris Harrison.
Not only is Wilson in a good situation on the field, but he has extra motivation in Norman as well. Chris Wilson, Caleb’s father, was a 2 time All-American for the Sooners as well as a coach and coordinator for the team. The younger Wilson grew up playing with the sons of coach Bob Stoops. Look for Caleb Wilson to have a little extra motivation when he steps on the field this week against his old hometown team.