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Zach Attack’s Week 4 CFB DFS Breakdown for FanDuel and DraftKings

FanDuel and DraftKings did us a favor and made the Saturday main slates almost the same!  This week, out of the 10 games on each main slate, only 2 on each site are different.  While there are no games on this slate with outrageous totals and close spreads, this week we are going to dig deep into 2 games that have higher totals and closer spreads.  When targeting games for DFS, these are 2 things that can lead you to the top.  With teams that can score and a game that stays close, shootout situations become more and more likely.  These games can produce cash studs and also be stacked to lead you to the GPP promised land!

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Notre Dame (-8) @ Wake Forest (Total 57)

Wake Forest

Wake Forest comes to South Bend fresh off of a Thursday afternoon loss to Boston College.  In that game, Senior Alex Bachman was a surprise scratch but the passing offense did just fine.  The running game also picked up with 298 total rushing yards.  This week, Wake Forest faces a Notre Dame team that is ranked 25th against the rushing and the 85th against the pass.  Vegas sees them scoring 24.5 points telling me that there is some fantasy value to be had.

Freshman QB Sam Hartman (DK $6300/FD $9500) is the 22nd most expensive QB on DraftKings and the 9th most expensive QB on FanDuel.  He is passing for 41 times a game for a season total of 834 yards with 6 TDs and 5 interceptions.  He also has 193 yards rushing on 41 carries with a touchdown.  That being said, there is a little cause for concern with Hartman.  QB Kendall Hinton (DK $5500/FD $4000) is coming back off of suspension and will be involved in some way according to head coach Dave Clausen.  Hinton is listed as the backup on the updated depth chart though, and with such a cheap price Hartman is hard to pass up on DK.

Behind Hartman is a two-headed backfield.  RB Matt Colburn (DK $4600/FD $7800) is the listed starter and RB Cade Carney (DK $5100/FD $8500) is the other running back getting carries.  Until last week, Carney was the clear favorite out touching and outgaining Colburn.  Last week against Boston College, Colburn had 5 more carries than Carney and got the touchdown but only outrushed Carney 117 to 116.  I hate trying to guess with RBBCs so these two will be GPP only for me.

The pass-catching fantasy value for the Demon Deacons has been concentrated this year, helping us know where to turn.  WR Greg Dortch (DK $7900/$FD $9400) is a true stud of the game and one of the top receivers in the country.  On the year, Dortch has 48 targets, with 27 catches for 336 yards and a touchdown on the year.  Dortch is also a punt/kick returner with the ability to take one to the house.  WR Sage Surratt (DK $5500/FD $9300) has 32 targets on the year with 17 receptions for 263 yards and a touchdown.  Surratt opened the season with an 11 catch 150-yard game against Tulane.  Since then, he has gone 4 for 63 yards and 3 for 50 yards and a touchdown.  He is a player I will consider on DK but there is no way I am not paying $100 more for Dortch if I am looking there on FD.  WR Alex Bachman (DK $3600/FD $8400) is a player you might want to keep an eye out for in my bargain article (*Spoiler Alert*).  He is coming off of a surprise scratch with a hamstring injury but this game will be played 9 days later and Bachman was listed as the starter in the updated depth chart.  Through the first 2 weeks of the season, Bachman had 8 targets in each game including 4 red zone targets, catching 9 passes for 116 yards and 3 touchdowns.  When Hartman got close to the end zone, Bachman was the man he was looking for.  We need to monitor his health but this is someone I will be targeting.

Wake Forest Depth Chart

Note:  There have been some adjustments to the depth chart:

 

Notre Dame

Notre Dame is coming off of a hard-fought 22-17 win over Vanderbilt.  This is a team that is 3-0 and is ranked 8th yet they are averaging under 24 points a game and all 3 games have been 1 possession games.  This week, they go up against a Wake Forest team that is averaging 36 points a game.  The Demon Deacons are 83rd against the rush and the 109th against the pass.  Wake Forest is prone to giving up the big play, giving up 5 touchdowns over 40 yards in 2 games against FBS opponents.  The biggest hurdle for the Fighting Irish might not even be on the field this week.  The next 2 weeks Notre Dame faces Stanford and Virginia Tech, making this a game that could be overlooked.

QB Brandon Wimbush (DK $6800/FD $8500) takes the reins of this RPO offense.  On the year, Wimbush has 589 yards passing with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions.  He has also run 49 times for 136 yards and a touchdown.  While those numbers aren’t astounding, Wimbush improved in his third game, not throwing an interception and running for 84 yards and a touchdown on a team-leading 19 carries.  On concern with Wimbush is backup QB Ian Book (DK $6200/FD $4200).  Book has no relevant fantasy value but Notre Dame likes to bring Book in to take snaps inside the 10.  This will greatly hinder Wimbush’s stats losing out on both rushing and passing touchdowns.

Notre Dame also has a dual backfield, with RB Jafar Armstrong (DK $5900/FD $8500) and RB Tony Jones Jr (DK $5800/FD $9000).  Armstrong took the lead in the backfield through 2 weeks but last week, but last week Jones had 17 carries to Armstrong’s 11.  Jones turned that into 118 yards rushing with a touchdown as well as 2 receptions for 56 yards.  Armstrong meanwhile had 46 yards on the ground.  This again is a true committee and GPP only.

With a less than stellar arm at quarterback, the pass catchers for the Fighting Irish have some tempered numbers through 3 games, but this could turn into value if Notre Dame needs to throw the ball.  Leading receiver is WR Miles Boykin (DK $5000/FD $7700) with 161 yards on 20 targets with 8 receptions.  WR Chase Claypool (DK $4400/FD $8000) has 7 receptions on 17 targets for 101 yards.  The most efficient receiver for the Irish has been WR Chris Finke (DK $4000/FD $8000) who has 10 catches on 14 targets and a touchdown.  Boykin is the most explosive of these receivers but again, expectations must be tempered the way Wimbush has been throwing the ball.

Notre Dame Depth Chart

 

Boston College (-7) @ Purdue (Total 68)

Boston College

Boston College is fresh off of a Thursday afternoon win over the aforementioned Wake Forest.  Boston College won that game with explosive plays.  With 69 total plays of offense, 59 of those went for 180 yards.  The other 10 went for 344!  That game was the first game of the season where starters played the whole game for BC.  They have been a run first team with a 2 to 1 run to pass ratio.  This week they take on a Purdue team that has the 62nd ranked run defense and the 114th ranked pass defense.

Normally I like to start a team preview with the quarterback, but this teams offense is completely centered around black horse Heisman hopeful RB AJ Dillon (DK $9000/FD $9800).  Dillon has 432 yards rushing with 4 touchdowns as well as a receiving touchdown.  He is averaging over 7 yards per carry.  Boston College likes to pound the ball, and point the ball, and point it some more.  Then they will pull the play action and go deep to surprise the offense.  Even with the defense stacking the box, Dillon still breaks a long run regularly.  His longest touchdown of the year is 74 yards.

When the ball is pulled for play action, QB Anthony Brown (DK $9200/FD $10000) is the one to do it.  Brown has been extremely efficient this year, with a 68.8 completion rate for 626 yards and 9 touchdowns.  In the one complete game he played, Brown had 304 yards and 5 touchdowns through the air.  Look for Brown to exploit the weak passing defense of Purdue.

Boston College likes to spread the ball around through the air.  The leading receiver is WR Jeff Smith (DK $5000/FD $8300) with 8 receptions on 16 targets for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He had a great last game with 6 of those receptions for 145 yards and both touchdowns.  The leading receiver before a slow week 3 was WR Kobay White (DK $5400/FD $9000).  He had only 1 catch for 35 yards against Wake Forest but on the year he has 6 receptions on 8 targets for 163 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Brown also gets WR Ben Glines ($DK 3800/FD $6100) and tight end WR Tommy Sweeny (DK $4200/DK $5800) involved as well.  Glines has 4 catches on 7 targets for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Sweeny has 6 catches on 7 targets for 75 yards and a touchdown.

Boston College Unofficial Depth Chart

Purdue

Purdue might be the best 0-3 team in the country.  They lost to Northwestern by 4 points and to Missouri by 3.  They have over 500 yards of offense per game and didn’t miss a beat when the backup QB was forced into duty.  This week, the Boilermakers take on a Boston College team ranked 80th against the run and 70th against the pass.  With the explosive AJ Dillon on the other side of the ball, Purdue’s offense will have to continue their efficient ways.

The biggest question coming into the game is which QB will start.  Last week, starter QB Elijah Sinclair (DK $6000/FD $7000) was ruled out on game day and that led the way for a career performance by QB David Blough (DK $7000/FD $9700).  Kudos to our coach AFriedman15 for this call last Saturday night!  (Note: be sure to stick around Slack on game days to stay up to date on late scratches.)  Blough threw for 572 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception.  He also added a touchdown on the ground.  Coming into last weekend, Sinclair had thrown for 283 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.  In the new depth chart this week, these two quarterbacks are marked with the dreaded “OR”.  This is a situation that we will have to monitor.

The backfield for Purdue is not one that is very fantasy relevant.  Starting RB DJ Knox (DK $5500/FD $8600) has been very boom or bust this year.  On the year he has 35 carries for 252 yards and 2 touchdowns.  In week 2 against Eastern Michigan, Knox had 21 carries for 152 yards and a touchdown.  Each other week he has 7 carries.  For a team that throws the ball 60% of the time, this is an avoidable backfield.

Surprisingly enough, the third leading rusher on the team is stud Freshman WR Rondale Moore (DK $6900/FD $9500) with 104 yards and a touchdown on 4 gimmick runs.  Moore also has 25 receptions on 34 targets for 262 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Moore had the 2nd most DraftKings fantasy points per game on the slate and is the 7th highest priced WR, making him a great value.  Moore is technically listed as 2nd on the depth chart to WR Jared Sparks (DK $4300/FD $7300).  Sparks has 13 receptions on 22 targets for 138 yards on the year.  The second leading pass catcher on the year is co-starting tight end WR Brycen Hopkins (DK $4100/FD $6600) with 9 receptions on 12 targets for 175 yards and a touchdown.  That being said, last game he had 5 receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown, with minimal production in the other 2 games.  WR Isaac Zico (DK $4000/ FD $$6400) and WR Terry Wright (DK $3400/FD $6200) also have had some production value for the Boilermakers.  Zico has 6 receptions on 16 targets for 117 yards while Wright has 7 receptions on 15 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown.  While most of these receivers are boom or bust, Moore has a huge ceiling with 2 11 reception games with 33 and 44 DraftKings fantasy points in each of those games respectively.

If you want to see how explosive Rondale Moore is, check this out:

Purdue Depth Chart

One more thing…

My goal as a contributor with DFS Army is to make your experience more interactive than you are used to.  I’ve been around a few sites, and I’ve found the dedication to helping and responsiveness I was looking for.  We understand it’s frustrating waiting days and even weeks for a response to your DFS question.  DFS Army has solved that with our real-time coaching format putting all 20+ coaches with all 1500+ members across dozens of organized rooms like:  NFL, MLB, NBA, coach’s corners, optimizer help, and more.  You have NEVER seen a community like this dedicated to helping beginners, intermediates, and experts alike by sharing everything they have learned over the years of playing the games themselves.