A bargain is defined as “a thing offered for sale more cheaply than is usual or expected.” Bargains aren’t always the cheapest of the pick and that’s not what I want to give you. I want to give you the best value possible! With CFB DFS just returning to the scene, pricing is very volatile and recency bias is real. While there won’t always be a handful of sub $4000 players that will put up 30+ points on a regular basis, digging deeper shows us where to look for the best value possible. Stats and numbers are a very real thing, but they can be deceiving. I believe by looking at the opportunity, as well as production, you can find a much better picture of possible outcomes of a player, as opposed to the raw stats the sites tend to use in pricing.
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QB Kellen Mond ($6000) – I really had to talk myself into this one, but the more I looked the more I like it. Kellen Mond goes up against Alabama this week. This is a very tough spot, but at $6000 Mond is way undervalued at the 27th most expensive QB. When Clemson came to College Station, Mond put up 430 yards and 3 touchdowns. Last year, against Alabama, Mond threw for 237 yards with a TD and an interception. He also ran for a touchdown. He would have had 20.88 DraftKings points. This was a defensive showdown where neither team had more than 355 yards. This year both teams are averaging over 500 yards per game. While I respect Alabama, I think Mond can be a sneaky play to get productive fantasy production. Check out this article:
Transforming A&M’s Kellen Mond: From surviving to thriving
RB Pooka Williams Jr. ($5700) – In 2 games, Kansas RB Williams has 283 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is averaging an astounding 8.8 yards per carry on 16 carries a game resurging the Jayhawks to back to back wins for the first time since 2009. Kansas takes on Baylor this week that is giving up 161 yards on the ground. Kansas has an ITT of 24 and has actually gained 1.5 points going from 9.5 to 8 point dogs. At $5700 points, Williams gives us an opportunity at great value allowing us to go after some studs.
WR Albert Okwuegbunam ($4300) – Last week we went to Missouri tight end Okwuegbunam against Purdue, He rewarded us with 5 receptions for 36 yards and a touchdown. This week, the Tigers go up against a tough Georgia team. That being said, Vegas is giving Missou a 25 ITT, being underdogs by 14 points in a 64-point game total. Missouri is throwing the ball for over 350 yards a game and will have to keep that up to hang in with the Bulldogs at home. Last week, the tight end also lined up at receiver 23 times. With 19 targets over 2 weeks, I think we can go back to the well with Okwuegbunam to give us good 7-10 targets with touchdown upside.
Week 3 snap counts:
WR Alex Bachman ($3600) – This one is one to watch, as Bachman was held out of the last game with injury. He was listed as a starter on the updated depth chart for the week but still need to keep an eye on it. That being said, Wake Forest is 5th in the country with 48 pass attempts a game. Notre Dame is 85th for passing yards allowed. Bachman has 8 targets a game with 9 receptions on the year. He has 4 red zone targets with 3 receptions for 3 touchdowns. This leads the team in touchdowns even missing a game. If Bachman is cleared to play and looks like he will be a full workload, this will be my number 1 punt of the week.
WR Jeff Smith ($5000) – This week AJ Dillon will be one of the top plays at running back. While he is forcing Purdue to stuff the box, Boston College receiver Jeff Smith will benefit greatly. In the first 2 games, BC pulled their starters after the first half and first quarter. In their first full game for starters, Smith had 10 targets with 6 catches for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also carried the ball for 42 yards. Purdue on the year is 114th in the country giving up passing yards, including 375 yards through the air last week. While they are going to have to respect the run, I look for Boston College to air out the ball. Vegas has them winning this game 36-30, and I see Smith getting a good piece of the Eagles defense.
One more thing…
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