Welcome back to “The Sniper Scope” – highlighting my personal anticipated GPP exposures and cash game targets for UFC Sao Paulo. This article is for VIP members only so if you want to ask me any questions or just want to chat, make sure to find me in Slack Chat. If you’re not a VIP member, join today and use code SNIPER for 10% off! One last thing – if you don’t already, please give me a follow on Twitter and subscribe to my YouTube channel at the links below. OK, enough of the intro, let’s get to it.
The free “DFS Express” fight-by-fight analysis video for this card is below and was recorded on Wednesday night. Make sure to check out the VIP podcast to see how my thoughts on the fights have evolved throughout the week.
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Anticipated GPP Exposures
These can change based on how my constructions develop and any late news in the week, including weigh ins. But these numbers are my personal starting points for building tournament lineups, I usually play 20 lineups per week. Obviously, the less lineups you play, the tighter you’re exposures need to be while if you play more lineups, you can expand things (especially your FADE – 20% range) quite a bit.
- 9.6k – Livinha Souza – 20%
- 9.5k – Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos – 20%
- 9.4k – Charles Oliveira – 20%
- 9.3k – Alex Oliveira – 45%
- 9.2k – Sam Alvey – FADE (CHANGE SINCE DFS EXPRESS – THINK HE WINS, UNLIKELY LANDS IN OPTIMAL – LISTEN TO VIP POD)
- 9.1k – Sergio Moraes – FADE (SAME AS ABOVE)
- 8.9k – Francisco Trinaldo – 30%
- 8.8k – Augusto Sakai – 15%
- 8.7k – Ryan Spann – 35%
- 8.6k – Thiago Santos – 40%
- 8.5k – Renan Barao – 40%
- 8.4k – Hector Lombard – FADE
- 8.3k – Gillian Robertson – 60%
- 8.2k – Marina Rodriguez – FADE
- 8.0k – Randa Markos – 20%
- 7.9k – Mayra Bueno Silva – FADE
- 7.8k – Thales Leites – 35%
- 7.7k – Andre Ewell – FADE
- 7.6k – Eryk Anders – 60%
- 7.5k – Luis Henrique – 25%
- 7.4k – Chase Sherman – 40%
- 7.3k – Evan Dunham – 20%
- 7.1k – Ben Saunders – FADE
- 7.0k – Rogerio Nogueira – 20%
- 6.9k – Carlo Pedersoli – 25%
- 6.8k – Christos Giagos – 30%
- 6.7k – Luigi Vendramini – FADE
- 6.6k – Alex Chambers – FADE
Cash Game Rankings
I don’t think any explanation is required except to say that I try and put about one-third of the fighters in each category.
Green:
- 9.6k – Livinha Souza
- 9.3k – Alex Oliveira
- 9.4k – Charles Oliveira
- 8.6k – Thiago Santos
- 8.5k – Renan Barao
- 8.3k – Gillian Robertson
- 7.6k – Eryk Anders
- 7.4k – Chase Sherman
- 6.8k – Christos Giagos
Yellow:
- 9.5k – Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
- 9.2k – Sam Alvey
- 8.9k – Francisco Trinaldo
- 8.7k – Ryan Spann
- 8.0k – Randa Markos
- 7.8k – Thales Leites
- 7.7k – Andre Ewell
- 7.3k – Evan Dunham
- 7.0k – Rogerio Nogueira
- 6.9k – Carlo Pedersoli
Red:
- 9.1k – Sergio Moraes
- 8.8k – Augusto Sakai
- 8.4k – Hector Lombard
- 8.2k – Marina Rodriguez
- 7.9k – Mayra Bueno Silva
- 7.5k – Luis Henrique
- 7.1k – Ben Saunders
- 6.7k – Luigi Vendramini
- 6.6k – Alex Chambers