Welcome back to the Shark Autopsy Report, NFL Edition Week 2! Over the course of the remainder of the NFL season this article will deconstruct winning DraftKings lineups of contests where the dark waters of GPP contests are ripe with sharks. Navigating these waters where the sharks smell blood in the water is not easy, but the DFSArmy have you covered, providing you with the essential daily tools to help our VIPs turn into sharks! The article will be released weekly, with each day’s article looking at either single entry or multi-entry GPP contests. Each contest requires a different lineup construction.
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In this edition of the Shark Autopsy Report, we look at the illustrious Milly Maker, a massive GPP tourney that pays out $1 million to first place. A true tale of the tape contest that everyone, even their mothers knows about and is discussed about extensively throughout the course of the week. Many think that lineup construction to win this tourney is all about the most contrarian construction possible, and sometimes that is the case. Like NFL week 1 where we saw 5-figure payouts to Army members, week 2 saw an Army member bring home a COOL $200K! BOOYAH KBIGGZ!!! Way to bring home the bacon!!!
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DraftKings’s $4.6M Milly Maker Contest
Well the craziness that was week 1 scoring, week 2 came back down to earth in terms of the score to win the illustrious Milly Maker. For the second week in a row, the Milly Maker did not fill to its entrant’s capacity. This week’s Milly Maker tourney was only filled at 97.6% of its capacity. A little bit about DraftKings $4.6M Milly Maker contest, 264,212 entrants paid $20 per entry to compete for the opportunity to win the top prize of $1,000,000.
For the second week in a row, the winner of the Milly Maker DID NOT MAX ENTER the tourney. Milly Maker winner in week 2, JEREMYHEIN entered only 26 lineups. Gone are the days of Max Multi Entry to take down the colossal tourney. Of the top 10 scoring lineups in the week 2 Milly Maker, No player had entered more than 26 lineups. Three players in the top 20 entered more than 100 lineups. Let’s take a look at how the top 10 fared and the number of lineups the played in the Milly Maker.
As compared to week 1, where winner Chalk crushed the field by 16.3 DK PTs, in week 2 JEREMYHEIN (Hein) had a massive sweat going as the clock counted down to triple zeroes in the 4 PM slate of games with Phillip Lindsay as his lone player playing. The total amount of points separating 1st from 3rd was 0.3 DK PTs.
Top 10
Winning Lineup
Like week 1, week 2 winner JEREMYHEIN utilized a similar methodology and targeted one game and stacked it up with 5 players from a single game. He rostered 4 KC Chiefs, including Mahomes, Hunt, Watkins, and Kelce, for a total average field ownership of 6.85% and 145.94 DK PTs. His highest owned player was Schuster at 13.8%. Hein fading highly owned tourney field plays of James Conner, Kittle, Antonio Brown, Tevin Coleman and Kamara, truly made his lineup unique. Especially his game stack fade of Brown for Schuster was right on target, gaining 14.78% ownership share and 18.4 DK PTs. Is the winner of the Milly Maker each week going to have an onslaught game stack? Who Knows, it’s probably not that likely.
Hein’s winning lineup incorporated 3 RBs and 3 WRs at an average salary spend of $6,600 for RBs and $5,967 for WRs. As you can see below, 6 of the top 10 lineups utilized the RB in the Flex position. While 2 lineups flexed the TE position.
As compared to week 1, week 2 winning lineup allocated $1,100 more towards the QB position, $100 more towards the RB position, $58 less towards the WR position, $1,900 more towards TE positions and $1,600 less towards the DST position. Hein’s week 2 lineup construction was more flat-lined towards a median distribution of salary across all of the positions.
Top 10 Lineups at a Glance
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Of the top 10 lineups, the highest owned player was JuJu Smith-Schuster at 70%, followed by Melvin Gordon, Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes at 60%. If you are a VIP DFSArmy member and Followed the #NFL-News-and-Notes channel you would have seen the below message from DFSArmy founder and chief, ffootballgeek, who stated in his message, “At QB I’m mixing up Brees, Ben, Mahomes, Watson, Stafford, Garoppolo, Keenum and Taylor. Moving down the list, Gordon is someone I have plenty of exposure to. In the Mid-tier its Sanders, JuJu and Jarvis Landry for me.”
If you followed Geeks last minute cliff notes of the slate, you had 3 plays that made the top Milly Maker lineup, and possibly scored your lineups in the cash money.
Over the course of the 2018 NFL season, we will be comparing on a weekly basis how the top 10 scoring Milly Maker lineups have distributed their salary across each position within their lineups to determine if there’s correlation week-to-week amongst the top 10 lineups.
Weekly Salary Distribution
From the two week sample of Milly Maker top 10 lineups, though a very small sample, we can see some trends for each allocable position that will continue to progress as the season continues each week. For example, as the season progresses, the QB position’s salary distribution will be more in-line with week 2 over that of week 1, because the DraftKings salary algorithms will become more in-tune with the performances of players within their respective position. The largest disparity amongst the data from week 1 to week 2 was in the TE, WR 1 and RB 2 positions. If you can recall from week 1 Milly Makers top 10 lineups within the Week 1 Shark Autopsy, at the RB 2 position there was extreme value in that of James Conner at $4,500, of which 100% of the top 10 employed Conner’s services. The top 10 lineups employed Gronk in 60% of the lineups at $6,900 and that skewed that week’s data towards the upper threshold of the TE salary. In week 2, 60% of the top 10 lineups employed a WR in the WR 1 slot that had a salary of $7,100 or greater where the highest salaried WR employed was $8,600. Whereas in week 1, that amount declined by 10% with the highest salaried WR employed was $7,800. I will be very interested to see how the salary trends continue over the course of the season, especially as the DraftKings salary algorithms tighten up and finding value amongst each position in your lineups becomes more important than in the opening few weeks of the season.
To conclude this installment of the Shark Autopsy Report, the DFS Army was started based on the concept that bring high-level tools, projections, and information to average players would allow them to compete on a level playing field with the DFS pros that have been dominating the industry for years. David is walking proof of concept. Check out our full Wall of Wins to see countless other screenshots from regular players utilizing DFS Army tools and advice to take down 6 figure prizes on a regular basis.