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Schnarr’s Super Picks PGA DFS Preview – The Tour Championship

Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr

BMW Championship Review

 Justin Rose -2nd

 My logic behind Rose was simple; I thought the price increase would allow you a chance at a great player with low ownership. The masses were largely off of Rose as he only received just over 9% ownership across the major GPP’s. Although he probably was a bit overpriced that allowed for ownership to stay low, making Rose a terrific GPP option. Playing Rose paid off as his 2nd place finish in his playoff loss to Keegan saw Rose rack up the fantasy points on the week.

 Bryson Dechambeau – T19

 The same logic behind Rose had me on Bryson for the week. With great options around him I saw ownership staying low despite two wins. Once again, probably a bit higher priced then he should be but the T19 finish was solid for the few who chose to stay on the Bryson wave.

Hideki Matsuyama – 15th

 Well I was way off with Hideki for the week. Despite the obvious fan favourites around him I thought people would have still went to Hideki given his recent play. Hideki saw a ridiculously low 4.15% average ownership across Gpps and outperformed many in his 9k range.

 Rickie Fowler – T8

 I loved Rickie this week and decided I wanted to be well overweight as long as all the indications show that he is healthy. As the week went on and it became apparent he was fine to play we saw ownership starting to rise to an eventual 16% average ownership in GPP’s.

 Francesco Molinari – T8

I liked Molinari, as the price has started to fall and the buzz has worn off the game is still present. Molinari showed hes still in the zone with a top ten performance in a loaded field.

 Rafa Cabrera-Bello – T41

 I liked the price but unfortunately the performance did not follow this week as Rafa finished in the bottom half of the field.

 Tyrell Hatton – T29

I wrote up how I think Hadwin will be chalk and I liked others in the same price range instead. As mentioned to VIP’s. I liked an underpriced and under owned Shauffele (T3) and felt more comfortable being on the Henrik Stenson (T29) chalk instead. Although, I did also say I prefer Snedeker (67th) as my third pivot instead of Hatton….

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 Tour Championship Preview

 The 2017-2018 PGA season comes to a close this week at East Lake, a 7,346 yard Par 70 in Atlanta Georgia. If you’re looking for comparables the course often gets mentioned in the same light as Augusta. Although there are obvious differences we have also seen a few of the guys that typically do well at Augusta do well here. This could simply be variance and the fact that in a field of thirty these trends will emerge. Although I wont be placing to much emphasis on this comparison I will be looking at historical performance at this event quite a bit. A look at recent results shows a few guys that have consistently finished in the top half of the leaderboard at this event.

Ball striking is obviously another key and I will specifically be putting extra emphasis on par fours 450-500 yards. This course challenges players to stay out of trouble off of the tee, but players wont always have a simple second shot even if they can stay out of the rough. I will also be heavily focused on players coming in with great form. Although the week off does kill a bit of momentum I think it is critical to be coming in with confidence and a hot hand.

Although the course is always important the crucial thing this week is field size and leveraging ownership. With only thirty players and no cut we will see plenty of multiples of the same line-up. I cannot stress enough in GPP’s how important this is to give yourself a chance at a unique winner. The other important key to me is finding a way to get that unique line-up by identifying the under owned players. With only 30 guys basically everyone will carry some sort of ownership but if you can find the under owned players who are in a good spot you can build tons of teams that have a shot at the big prize.

Interesting Plays

 Justin Rose: DK: $11400 FD: 11200

 The highest salary on DraftKings and the third Highest on FanDuel is in a great spot this week. Rose has dominated this event in the past and has quite the track record over recent years (T10 or better last five appearances). I am currently leaning Justin Rose in the top end of salaries and think I will be planting my flag on him for the week.

Dustin Johnson: DK: $11300 FD: $11500

 There will be one of two narratives for DJ at the end of the week. Either he will perform and everyone will say he forgot about the personal troubles or he will under perform and everyone will talk about the personal issues. I see DJ potentially being lesser owned than what he should be given the personal issues but that could change as the week goes on.

Rory McIlroy: DK: $10700 FD: $10900

 If there’s ever a week for Rory to have a good Sunday I am sure he’s hoping its this week with $10 million on the line. We all know its not jitters or nerves getting to Rory and he has shown the game recently to win, just needs to do it for 4 days.

Bubba Watson: DK: $6500 FD: $9300

Bubba has a solid recent history at this event and we all know the Augusta connection is there for him. He’s had a great year and has been trending in the right direction in recent events to close out the year. I do think it is very hard to project ownership in this lower range but I could see a scenario where people gravitate towards Leishman & Keagan Below and Woodland and Phil above.

 

As always, these are initial thoughts and not necessarily the plays I will be making.  As the week goes on I will update my thoughts in our member SlackChat as well as discussing multiple other players and my thoughts for both Cash and GPP’s.

 Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles

DFS Army VIP Members also have access to our PGA Cheatsheet!

DFS Army VIP Members also have access to our DFS Army Domination Station Lineup Optimizer!