Welcome to the September 21st Edition of Painting the Black, an MLB Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel and DraftKings
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!
I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from both sites (Fanduel and Draftkings) Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that!
ALWAYS PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER FROM OUR VERY OWN @DFSWEATHER IN SLACK!!!
Any updates will be given in our VIP Slack Channel! <– click here to see our pricing to get the whole VIP experience!
If you find yourself thinking, “what do some of these stats mean?” Check out my new definitions article HERE. I explain what each stat I use mean, and reasons why I use those stats in my articles!
BULLPEN REPORTS
**Note, the rankings are all the way at the end of this article, don’t forget to scroll ALL the way to the end!**
Main Slate
**SEPTEMBER MLB NOTE: this time of year I think we need to lower our volume as MLB is crazy with September call-ups and organizations trying to see what they have for next year. All of my plays will mainly be geared towards tournaments for the rest of the season**
Jacob deGrom (12.1k FD) (12.4k DK) @ WSH
Very steep price for deGrom in a tough matchup, but deGrom is elite and has been pitching great all season. He may not say it, but he wants the Cy Young and he will continue to go out there and fire for the Mets. Anytime he goes out there he’s good for 6+ innings and has had multiple 50/30 games this season. I actually have interest in both these pitchers tonight and since we are focusing more on tournaments, deGrom is still an elite option. He’s our top rated pitcher tonight from the Research Station and he’s had a great history against these Nationals. Across 175 at-bats, deGrom has allowed just a .206 batting average with a 32.5% strikeout rate. Those are pretty close to his season numbers too as he has a 32% strikeout rate while allowing just a .200 BAA. deGrom doesn’t allow many baserunners and doesn’t get hit too hard. He’s one of the best options anytime he toes the rubber.
Wei-Yin Chen (7.6k FD) (6.8k DK) vs CIN
As Mitch (DFSnDONUTS) says, we love us some Chen when he pitches at home! And I 100% agree with that. The numbers are INSANE. At home, he has a 1.77 ERA compared to a 9.29 ERA on the road. He’s allowing just a .185 BAA at home compared to .329 on the road. At home, Chen is allowing just a .266 xwOBA and .238 wOBA. I’m not entirely sure why these splits are so crazy, but it’s when we play Chen. Play at home, target him with bats on the road. At home, he also has an 8.6% higher strikeout rate at home and allows almost 2 FEWER home runs per 9. Over the L14 vs LHP, the Reds have the 7th highest strikeout rate at 26.5% which could lead to a few more strikeouts for Chen. Obviously a tournament play, but he has shown us 50 point upside in his home starts this season.
The projected lineup for the Reds does not look too great against lefties. They don’t have a super high strikeout rate, but they aren’t doing much of anything else either.
C.C. Sabathia (7.5k FD) (7.5k DK) vs BAL
This is a great matchup for CC tonight. He’s been a bit shaky of late, but has been good at home. He normally doesn’t get hit very hard and this projected lineup for Baltimore lights up red like a Christmas Tree.
This is definitely something that amazes me. First of all, the DFS Army Lineups Page is like no other. Second, the Orioles have been AWFUL against LHP of late. That’s an extremely high strikeout rate, and I can see CC going out there and striking out 8 tonight across 6 innings for the Yanks.
**I still have two more picks that I like, but check out some of the DFS Army’s success and prices!
Here is the DFS Army’s new pricing tiers! Sign up for the one that best suits your bankroll. Use code “DFSMATT” to unlock 10% off your monthly subscription, for LIFE!
PGA, MLB, NFL, MMA, WNBA, NBA, NASCAR. You name it, we got it! Join TODAY and see what DFS Army is all about!
Check out some of the DFS Army’s latest HUGE wins!
Zack Greinke (9.3k FD) (9.7k DK) vs COL
Greinke can struggle when he faces COL in Coors, but at home, he’s been amazing. History is definitely there with Greinke and the Rockies. They have 412 at-bats against him and have multiple hitters with over 50. Last time he faced the Rockies at home he was amazing and went 8 innings with 13 strikeouts. Now, I don’t see that happening here tonight, but there’s a chance he gets back to 50+ tonight. Ever since coming over to the Diamondbacks, Greinke has been really good at home for them. This season is no different as he’s allowed just a .203 average and .264 xwOBA, which is actually the same as his wOBA at home too. This game has the potential to be a 1-0 game as I love both pitchers here. Coming into this game, the Rockies are also striking out a ton against RHP. Over the L14, they have the 3rd highest strikeout rate in the MLB at 27.2%, making Greinke have a bit higher ceiling tonight. We know that Greinke can go out there and get strikeouts in bunches and I will be looking forward to this matchup.
Nothing on the Rockies projected starting lineup really jumps out to me thinking Greinke is a bad play. I love his upside in this matchup tonight.
German Marquez (10.2k FD) (10.5k DK) @ ARI
Marquez has been unbelievable for most of this season and he’s priced up with the big dogs. It is well deserved and I think people may just go up to Cole, or down to Greinke tonight in the same price area. His last start struggles against the Giants will hopefully take the ownership off him. He still got a QS in that one, but his strikeouts were not there. He has faced Arizona 5 times this season, which is a lot. Marquez does have 33 strikeouts in 27 innings against them and a couple starts earlier this season skew his numbers a bit. Before his last start against the Giants, he rolled off 3 straight starts with over 11 strikeouts, one of which was against the Diamondbacks. He has a 26.7% strikeout rate this season and has only allowed more than 3 earned runs twice in his last 10 starts. He has only allowed a .284 xwOBA this season and his upside is like no other. Love Marquez in tournaments tonight.
Just like the Rockies lineup, the projected lineup for the Diamondbacks doesn’t look all that amazing either. Their xwOBA isn’t that high, and even though they grade out well for the DFS Army, I’m not that high on either offense here tonight.
Others I’ll consider tonight:
Gerrit Cole: Not a fan of targeting the Angels, but Cole is coming off extra rest for this start. I don’t like how he hasn’t gone 6+ consistently of late, but he still can pop for a solid fantasy point game.
Julio Teheran: Decent matchup for him tonight. Phillies still have strikeouts in their lineup and he’s been solid of late. Been steady striking out 5-7 each start and has rolled off at least 37 fanduel points in 5 of his last 7 starts.
Shane Bieber: the Biebs is coming in after Bauer tonight and could eat up a ton of innings. The Sox clinched the AL East last night, so they really have nothing to play for any more over the last 2 weeks. We could see some funky lineups from them too. Bieber has been really solid this season with the Indians with some great strikeout stuff.
John Gant: I love picking on the Giants and their projected starting lineup still doesn’t look that good. You’ll have to sign up to check out their starting lineups stats from our Lineups Page!
Offenses I like tonight, (Keith (boomersdaddy) will have more in-depth on hitters today also) but that’s VIP only. Sign up here and use code DFSMATT to save 10%!
Yankees vs Yefry Ramirez: highest IRT on the board and no surprise there. The Yanks are still playing for home field in the WC game, which is huge. It may be weird not to like the studs like Stanton, Judge, etc. But in this game, I prefer Luke Voit, Andrew McCutchen, and Miguel Andujar. I was at this game last night, and Cutch is an on-base machine, getting on a ton last night.
Dodgers: a Great matchup with Laurer tonight. They have been crushing LHP of late too. Taylor is hitting great projected to lead off. He’s a great value at 3k on fanduel. Justin Turner, Manny Machado, and Kiki Hernandez are all plays who crush lefties too. This whole Dodgers lineup is actually in play for me tonight and would be one of my top stacks.
Royals/Tigers: I actually think another game stack here could work out. This game was nuts last night and both of these pitchers are not good. Tournaments I love either team, but if picking 1, I prefer the Royals. More specifically, Merrifield, Mondesi, Dozier, Perez. But I think their whole lineup is in play tonight.
Mariners/Rangers: Weather issues here. Check out #DFS-Weather for up-to-date notes on this game. If it plays and the bats are safe, load up on them. These pitchers are not good and there could be fireworks tonight.
BOLD CALL: After the A’s scored 21 runs last night, I feel people will want to go back to them. They face Berrios tonight who does struggle on the road, but I think he limits the A’s tonight and they could garner higher ownership because of last night.
MAIN SLATE RANKINGS
- Jacob deGrom
- Zack Greinke
- German Marquez
- Wei-Yin Chen
- C.C. Sabathia
QUICK PICK ON FANDUEL PITCHING TIER RANKS
TIER 1: deGrom, Marquez, Cole
2: Berrios, Heaney, Bumgarner
3: Chen, Sabathia, Teheran, Chacin
4: Greinke, Ross, Reid-Foley
Good Luck Everyone!