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NFL Week 3 Cash Game Break Down – DraftKings / FanDuel / FantasyDraft / Yahoo

 

 

 

This article is going to focus on breaking down of a few DraftKing / FanDuel / Fantasy Draft / Yahoo cash game plays and lineup construction for NFL week 3 Sunday main slate.  GPPs are still a big part of my game, but the majority of my action will be cash games H2Hs each Sunday as we get a lot of volume and variance in NFL.  This article will dive into how I will approach week 3 cash and a few core plays I am looking at getting into my lineups.

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DraftKings

Matt Ryan – $5,700 – This is just too cheap for a game with a ITT (implied team total) of 28 and game total of 53.5.  How does Matty Ice not be part of at least half these touchdowns.  You can see what he has done against the Saints the last 4 years and he is just too cheap in cash here.  Freeman being sidelined only helps him in this matchup and they could throw the ball a little more, especially if they get behind in this game.  I think we can see a floor of 15 DK points here with upside of 25 DK. (Cam Newton – $6,000 GPP Pivot)

Giovani Bernard – $5,900 – I wish we were getting a little more of a discount with Gio here, but until Mixon gets back he is going to get all the work.   He had 7 targets last week, so we can probably expect something around 6 – 8 targets as a floor this week and if he can turn those into some good yardage then he should pay off this price tag.  He is not a must play at this price by any measure, but he is going to be a very highly owned RB in cash games and probably 15 – 20% in GPPs as well. (Matt Breida – $5,400 GPP Pivot)

Michael Thomas – $8,900 – The question you are going to make this week if playing Thomas is to play Kamara or Thomas in cash games.  You will kill your lineups if you try to stick both of them in there and I feel like there is more running back value to be had then to spend up for Kamara in cash games this week.  Thomas has been a target monster this year so far with 30 in the 1st 2 games, with 7 of them coming in the red zone in which he turned 3 of them into touchdowns.  You are going to want a piece of this game and I feel like if you are deciding between Kamara or Julio Jones at spending up in this game I’d rather land on the guy that is seeing all the targets and more TD equity than Julio has shown over the last few years.

Minnesota Vikings – $4,300 – I said I was not going write up another defense, but damn Buffalo looks so bad and I think I just have to put it out there that in cash games, just play this D.  You can make a case for any defense each week as I tend to spend down as you are looking for sacks and turnovers, but this spot is just so golden with the lack of talent the Bills have.  I mean the Bills have players retiring at half time these days!  I will be having them in my cash lineup on every site this week.  I still can’t believe Vontae Davis called it quits at half.

Cash Game Approach on DK – You are going to want a piece of the ATL / NO game and finding those pieces are going to be key.  If spending up at RB, I really am looking at Kamara even at his inflated price tag as I stated last week Atlanta has allowed the most reception to running backs over the last three years.  That bodes well for Kamara who has been playing everywhere.  CMC had 14 receptions last week against ATL, imagine what Kamara can do.  It also helps that Deion Jones is not playing who is also Atlanta’s best linebacker.  With that being said, Kamara or Thomas is going to be the difficult decision you have to make when building your cash builds this week.  I can make a case for each of them as I did for Kamara here, but at this point in time I am probably leaning Thomas with the cheaper RBs with higher floors than the WRs in that range.  Focus on pass catching RBs as we only had 3 – 100 yard rushers last week and we know pass catching running backs are more valuable on DK anyway.  Vikings D against the lowly Bills is a cash lock, as they are a double digit favorite.

FanDuel

Jimmy Garoppolo – $7,400 – There are actually 3 cash QBs I like this week but going to focus on Garoppolo because of price, but I also like Watson $7,700, Mahomes $8,900 (132.9 passer rating!), and Ryan $7,700 in cash games.  I like Jimmy G in cash because I think they should be playing from behind all game.  Mahomes is also a great cash play, but we can save $1500 on a guy who should throw 40+ times this game in catchup.  I love pairing him up with Kittle who burned people last week.  Jesse James torched KC last week and pairing up Jimmy G / Kittle this week after they burned you is a great way to attack this in GPPs.  Recency bias is real! (Blake Bortles $6,700 – GPP Pivot)

Dalvin Cook – $6,500 ***OUT**** (Note – Cook is out so I am all in on Murray at $5,200)- This pick all depends on his health and you can easily go down to Giovani Bernard if you want to as he is $100 cheaper than Cook, but since I wrote him up above I thought I would talk about Cook.  Vikings are double digit favorites and should be up by a few TDs by half.  I think if Cook is healthy they could feed him the ball a ton this game to get him right and he does not have a TD yet this year.  I think we see him get in the end zone a few times this game if playing.  If Cook does not go for whatever reason, then Latavius Murray is a stone cold lock at $5,200.  I still will have a lot of Murray in GPPs even if Cook plays as this will depress his ownership and we might see him playing the entire 4th Q if it gets really ugly.  Just a situation we must monitor to figure out who we should play here.

Zach Ertz – $7,000 – Ertz gets Wentz back this game and I think he is going to target him a ton to break a little of the rust off.  I put two graphics here so you could see the target he has been getting with Foles over the last 2 games and also the 2nd image of Ertz’s production with Wentz behind center.  If I am spending up in cash I prefer Ertz over Kelce, as KC has a ton of weapons they can go to.  I think Wentz leans on his stud TE in this matchup against Indy. I have no issues with Kelce in a crazy high total game, just stating my case for Ertz. (George Kittle $5,800 – GPP Pivot) (Note – Doyle is out so Ebron makes a great cash play)

 

Cash Game Approach on FanDuel – This week you will want to focus on the SF/ KC and NO/ATL for your cash game plays.  We can get some nice value at RB and I think that is the direction I want to go while I construct my cash builds and spend up at WR where I can.  I am going to lock in Vikings D to start my build in cash as I think we have enough value to get there, but in GPPs by all means every defense is in play and no defense is a must.  I just can see the Vikings pitching a shutout and maybe put 1 or 2 TDs on the board with how inaccurate Allen is.

I did OK in GPPs in last week and was sitting in 2nd in the early only last week until the GB / MIN went into overtime and it moved me down to 20th.  I had double TEs in that lineup like I talked on the podcast last week!  I also have double TEs in this lineup that almost had me shipping the 2 game prime time slate for $10,000.  I love the 2 game slates and have been very profitable at these.  I am going to give some notes this week on how I will approach it as each one is different.  This was a $4 buy-in with 150 max.  I only ran 50 lineups and hit the lock button on Barkley /Elliott as I felt no other RBs would put up those #s when you had to roster 2.  I will go more into it in notes on this week’s prime time slates.  I like this 10000% more than showdown slates and it is what I focus on when allocating my GPP bankroll over those showdown slates.

Fantasy Draft

I highly recommend if you do not have any action over at Fantasy Draft that you run over there this weekend and start playing.  The GPPs have such a great flat payout and the competition is not as strong IMO.  You can see last week I had a great week 1 and dominated cash games.  I am going to add a few cash game plays I am looking at for Fantasy Draft this week in my article and if you like it please let me know and I will continue to add them going forward.  Below is a screen shot of my NFL week 1 Fantasy Draft weekend.

Drew Brees – $11,500 – You can make a case for Newton and Watson around the same price, but I want a piece of that high O/U game and Brees is too cheap.  Mahomes is almost 2k more than Brees here so I’ll gladly take the discount and get my Brees expore on Fantasy Draft.

James White – $8,000 – This is too cheap of a price and some people will forget about him because he is not on the main slate.  He has had 17 targets over the last 2 games and I don’t see that changing here either.

Kenny Golladay – $8000 – Detroit is going to be playing from behind and Stafford has found a guy he loves.  He is way too cheap in this spot and has a crazy 21 targets over his last 2 games.  He is a cash lock for me at this price.

Cash Game Approach on Fantasy Draft – I think I am going back to what worked in week 1 and that is to get 4 running backs into your lineup, then fit in a cheap QB, WRs, TE.  That seems to be the optimal way to approach lineup construction in cash games this week while I have been tinkering with builds.

Yahoo

Allen Robinson – $11 – He was targeted a massive 14 games against SEA and 21 total over the first 2 games.  It is only a matter of time before he finds the end zone, but at almost minimum salary he makes a lot of sense in this spot.

Tevin Coleman – $22 – He is going to see a ton of snaps and in one of the best games to target.  You can  make a case for him on almost every site in cash this week, but I really like the price on yahoo.  We have to remember that Yahoo scoring is similar to FD, so remember that when picking your players.

Christian McCaffrey – $24 – This is way too cheap for how much he is involved in this lineup with Olson out.  He saw a staggering 15 targets last week and a total of 23 touches.  He should be priced into the $30’s with the target share and touches he is getting.

Keg Stands

I not only want to bring you my cash game approach, but I want to talk about how I approach my tournament builds when doing MME (mass-multi entry).  I am really trying to find a stand on a certain guy, but this week I am probably going to be more spread out.  Instead of going heavy on Gio in Gpps, I will probably have a ton of Breida.  He will be about half what Gio’s ownership will be and in one of the best games of the week to target.  That will be one spot I plan on attacking heavy when looking into my MMEs this week on all sites but especially full PPR sites.

 

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